Strange concepts of power projection and deterrence here.

Firstly deterrence, Tornado + Storm Shadow or Rafale plus Scalp are not deterrence in the true sense of the word. For most of these countries, their deterrence is nuclear weapons and overall conventional capability.

To put it simply, I’d sooner be scarred of Pakistans military without 4.5 Gen + cruise missile than UAE with Mirage 2000-9/F-16E/F plus Black Shahine cruise missile.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons and a large conventional force as well as strategic depth whereas UAE does not and most of it’s AF is at one base. Lobbing odd conventional missiles is nothing compared to lobbing hundreds of kilotons of nuclear ordnance and engaging 140 4.5 gen fighters parked at a single base with no strategic depth is easier than engaging several older hundred fighters over a large territory.

Secondly, force projection is not really shaped by single system.

E.g. Germany’s Taurus equipped fighters are not really force projection as Germany lacks the forces to maintain any true projection capability – A2A refuelling tankers, sufficient air frame numbers (especially SEAD and ISTAR), strategic airlift, strategic sealift, carrier capability, political clout to open up airspace or access to bases etc etc.

F-35 fits into US concept of deterrence. US has huge force projection capability. F-35 is but a single tool in the overall tool kit.

It’s one of the reasons I find this “fighter X is better than fighter Y” comparisons to be rather childish. They ignore the overall picture – overall capability, supporting assets, logistic systems, strategic doctrines, tactical doctrines, etc etc etc..

Remember Germany did better when it’s primary tanks were light Panzer I and Panzer II than when it’s primary tanks were long barrelled Panzer IVG/H/J and Panthers which overkilled T-34 or Sherman.

Why F/A-18D – it’s been out of production for years.

Wouldn’t an F/A-18E/F be a better option?

Frankly if my country was surrounded by loopies that want a peace of my action so I actually have a defence budget worth mentioning. And if my country’s the size of Malaysia or Venezuela.

76 F-35A in 3 squadrons of 16 a/c plus OCU/fighter squadon + 12 spare – hope Scooter’s reading this.

4 AWACS based on EMB-145

6-12 X P-3C BMUP(6 for Venezuela, 12 for Malaysia type with more waterways)
2 x EP-3C ELINT/SIGINT

Tankers – don’t need them as it’s a pretty small place and I’m looking at deterrence.

12 x C-130J-30
VIP transports – El Presidente flys in chartered national airline aircraft.

12 x G-115 for primary training
24 x PC-21 for basic/advanced training
16 x T-50 for LIFT

ARMY AVIATION

8-12 MH-60S (SAR configured)
24 x UH-60M (transport configured)
6 x UH-60M (Special Operations Configured)

12 x CH-47F

24 x AH-64E.

As for Naval Air Arm – assuming a force of 6-8 frigates:

12 x MH-60R (ASW, ASuW).
4 x MH-60S (VERTREP)

I don’t think the crisis we see at the moment will last forever. And past 2020-25 there are aircraft to replace in both countries.

Past 2020, Germany becomes exclusively Eurofighter so no aircraft to replace until 2030 at least.

Spain has EF-18s/AV-8B to replace and I think that F-35 might be the winner here and then nowhere close to 86 EF-18s + 18 AV-8B currently operated.

Problem with European defence spending:

1. No clear threat
2. No appetite for expeditionary warfare (UK and France being exceptions).
3. Ageing populations resulting in higher pension/health costs as well as increased cost of labour due to smaller workforce.
4. Too many domestic social issues (high unemployment, problems with immigration etc).

Regarding costs: It would actually generate some postitive cashflow for both countries now, if SoKo would buy 60 EF. (Say 25 build in Spain and 35 in Germany for a quick delivery)

No economies of scale hence high cost. Salaries are also more expensive in both countries.

2) the EF would become more attractive for potential export customers. At the moment it is more or less an orphan aircraft.

How is it an orphan aircraft? It is operated by 4 of the larger European airforces plus one of the biggest in Middle East – Saudi Arabia.

Bigger issue with Eurofighter is declining fighter sales since 1991, high cost of operation and attractiveness of countries plugging into F-35. KFX doesn’t resolve any of these, unless it’s cheaper to fly.

3) on the other hand would this open the door for future KF-X exports to the gulf states f.e. Not the case if SoKo selects the Super Hornet as basis for it’s KF-X.

Given Eurofighter sales to Middle East (S. Arabia and Oman), Germany and Spain probably don’t see the point of cannibalising potential EF2000 sales to sell KF-X.

4) both Spain and Germany wouldn’t have to spend money on the KF-X development, most of it would be company funds.

And who would wear inevitable overruns?

And surely Spain and Germany want to recoup costs of EF2000?

Funny how it hasn’t killed the other 3 partners.

EF2000 delays did end up costing the other partners more – e.g. Italy had to extend Tornado ADV lease and then lease F-16s (and it obviously wanted Typhoons for air defence which was original mission!).

The Germans have semed unhappy with some other joint programs – e.g. NH90 and Tigre.

And 400M had a very sordid gestation period.

The money and resources spent on these has an opportunity cost and has probably resulted in some cutbacks to military capability (e.g. money spent on maintaining ever more costly legacy aircraft + blowout on new system costs = less money to acquire new system in planned numbers or something else cutback be it a school or hospital or military unit).

Frankly I find your grand-standing over this matter and even your profile signature to be offensive Nic

I like the sig especially after the Libyan affair.

Black Archer from what google translate says:

Tiger fleet – 18 to remain, 6 to be sold
A400M – 14 to enter service, 13 to be sold.
NH-90 – order reduced from 45 to 22
EF2000 – Tranche 3A – 15 a/c delayed to 2015.
EF2000 – Tranche 3B cancelled outright (14 a/c).

Other articles have shown Spain is trying to find a buyer for up to 18 x T1 EF 2000. Peru, Chile and Poland have all been mentioned as potential buyers.

If these eventuate, Spain will have 54 EF2000 (73 – 1 accident – 18 sold).

Congratulations indeed. And not a single fatal accident either.

Anyhow regarding they’re future, they will be used until at least 2020.

http://www.saairforce.co.za/news-and-events/1026/saaf-ageing-aircraft-in-use-until-2020