I agree and you can add Japan to the list. As I don’t see them investing billions and taking decades to develop a New Stealth Fighter on there own……

Only problem is Japanese have appeared to embrace incompetence in their aircraft procurement hence only 10 AH-64s out of 60+ planned, somewhat botched F-2 program and lots of indigenous programs that seem to chew up the Yen whilst not delivering much (C-2 and P-1 – meanwhile JASDF is topping up its transport fleet with ancient ex-USN C-130s) and F-15 upgrades delivered in dribs and drabs instead of a concerted effort.

For a country that pretty much invented Total Quality Management, their air forces don’t seem to embrace it too much.

The F-35 will be much like the F-16 in the sense it will be ordered in batches. So, while South Korea may order 40, 50, or 60 initially. Yet, in the end will likely have many many more. Especially, considering modern fighters are produced over many decades.

Especially if KFX is delayed or enters a cost death spiral, which given low numbers involved is a risk.

Given current Korean AF, I wouldn’t be surprised if they turned out to be a major F-35 user and one of the few operating more than 100 airframes (and possibly 200+ to replace F-4 by 2020, F-16 by 2030 and then F-15K).

I think Turkey will go the same way – $33 billion for 200 TFX sounds insane. Instead I expect up to 250 F-35s.

You plan to field capability that give you options..You have your regular POUNDING BOMB truck fleets with the F-15K’s and Vipers that do all the carpet bombing or take out whatever targets you may see fit. While the capability of discreetly targeting Noko is not available. With a nut in control of the NOKO, you could hardly blame the ROKAF for demanding such a capability in case the idiot ups his capability in the coming years/decades and decides to attack SOKO and place launchers on stand by tipped with nuclear warheads…To take those sort of targets out, you really need to go in quietly and bring in an element of surprise so that the idiot does not launch them in panic. The ROKAF have increasingly become aggressive when it comes to the North koreans and they are within their right to seek a comprehensive ability to neutralize nuclear or conventional threats originating from north korea (Be it bombing artillery or taking out nuclear missiles or surgical strikes on key nuclear establishments)..We can hardly predict what a maniac would do in a decade or 2..ROKAF wants to prepare for all eventualities…

I agree, though in any case it’s a lose-lose situation for South Korea.

The amount of artillery situated on DMZ is huge – literally tens of thousands of tubes. I read an article that stated if every single artillery and rocket tube fired just one salvo, the result woild be devastating. Throw in numerous ballistic missile batteries and it’s a nasty picture.

Though in reality those WWII and 1950s vintage guns are expected to fire a lot more than just 1 salvo and even the missile launchers will probably get more than 1 launch before SoKo/US forces can neutralise them.

I also don’t think South Korean intel is too good at predicting what the Hermit Kingdom is going to do next. That’s a very hard task and getting right HUMINT on the ground difficult.

South Korea’s best option is diplomacy.

I also don’t see the South Korean people supporting any pre-emptive strikes unless threat of military engagement is well and truly upon them.

The reason is they know having to reabsorb North Korea will set them back decades (look at issues of reintegrating Eastern Europe including East Germany back into the European fold – now imagine that with North Korea).

As stated lose-lose situation even if they won the war.

To be honest I think the F-35s are actually a better deterrent against China than they are against North Korea.

Apologies for mostly off topic discussion.

I just want to know how they can just pull the extra billions out of their butts.

Surely that has ramifications somewhere.

Here in Oz even we were rich we couldn’t just pull that kind of money out of our butts unless it was pork barrelling to minority seats in an election year. And the result of that is deficit budgets and diverting tax payer dollars to interest payments.

And then it was never funded properly anyway – Oz Commonwealth funding is a poison chalice. Tis why yours truly has a $1 million structural deficit on one $13 million dollar budget and had a $2 million structural deficit in another $12 million dollar unit (which thankfully got taken away from me when we went through our 4th restructure in 5 years).

And when you tell the big bosses (Departmental Secretaries and Ministers) “if you want me to come in on budget, either give me more money or let me cutback some services or even give me the legislative power to raise revenue,” the big bosses just freak out and look away.

Western fiscal responsibility and democratic decision making at it’s best.

Those advocating for it, want its ability to silently go out and conduct surgical strike…Stealth here is more to bring an element of surprise rather than to defeat A2AD threat of NOKO.

Fair enough but I just can’t see SoKo ever doing a preemptive strike on NoKo.

It’s a great way of having 10s of thousands of artillery, rocket and missile rounds pepper cities around the DMZ including chunks of Seoul. And no amount of Western tech is going to stop that kind of brute force.

North Korea is far more willing to do beligerent acts than South Korea and any “surgical strike” would bring down a massive response from a regime scarred for it’s own survival.

Not saying they shouldn’t buy F-35s, just looking at political/military ramifications of any pre-emptive South Korean strike.

I think F-35 is ideal choice for South Korea. No doubt they will buy more when they figure out KFX will blow a massive hole in the budget for little capability.

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