On the contrary, it was never the main point. The original requirement for a modern (non-Russian) multirole fighter aircraft was drafted with view towards acquiring more Mirage 2000s, which with time and indecision snowballed into something else.

In any case, the utility of ToT continues to fall with the looming shadow of the PAK-FA. Five year ago it would have been quite valuable. But now by the time the technology is absorbed the Tejas Mk2 will be in production and the N-Tejas close to it. Just as importantly the PAK-FA will be in production. If the AMCA project still requires outside assistance, there’s always the option of consultancy (maybe even bringing in Dassault).

So, what is the blocking point about those Indian Rafale discussions then ?

We only what India and France say what the plan is. Yet, the History of Military Projects delivering on time and budget is not good as a whole. In the case of India it’s terrible. So, you can quote all want yet that hardly makes it fact….

There is one word missing in your first sentence.
Then what is the problem with the delivery of 18 Rafale ? You’re expecting some issue with Made in India Rafale ? Fine, you’re not the only one, but what is the relation with Made in France Rafale ?
Very interesting sophism though.

Issue with Indian Rafale is there’s no contract signed and realistically it might be 2014 by the time it is signed. However there is a possibility a contract is signed even later – look at Hawk AJT contracts.

Of course, my post was based on a quick signature, but if India agreed to sign it later and later, it’s their own choice. The question of lenghtly discussion, like the Hawk AJT, is a reality, for sure, and that’s why India said several times that they were trying to have a faster process for purchase, on the other hand, I don’t think any of us has information about those improvements.

Assuming this is generally correct, who are the 22 Rafales being produced in 2018-19 going to?

If there is no signed contract, of course, the production will go to France.

And any info on what’s happening post 2019? France will still have 40 outstanding from original agreed number of 180. Also there will be 50 M2000Ds that need eventual replacing.

No idea, the last detail plan from the french defense finish in 2019.

well, as you can undertand, some of these are classified. Lets say one need 2.5 to 3 years to build Rafale. This schedule can be slightly changed, but not so much . This schedule is a journalist iconograpy (good one tbh). Plz remember indian raflales, due to numerous differences from french ones will be built from scratch. Including israeli stuff (i dont know which, but this was recently quoted), russian missiles (which ?)

I would like to know your sources about “numerous differences” with the details about the implication.
Building a Rafale fron scratch will not take 3 years, so obviously, there is already a temporal margin with that figure.

About the Russian missiles, it seems there is talk about the integration of X-31, R-73 and RVV-AE missile.
http://lenta.ru/news/2013/08/19/kh31/
Such a “modification” will not impact the building of the plane itself but the writing of software.

A second question would be very insteresting. How much (time and money) to adapt those missiles on the F-35 ?

Turkey is committed to the F-35. So, Greece will have little option but to follow. Unless, you think Greece is just going to stand by and accept a greatly inferior position to Turkey. (i.e. not likely)

I would like to attract your attention on the fact that most of the greeks you speak with on WAFF are living in USA.
Right now, Greeks have several huge problems, much more important that doing a pissing contest with Turks.

Nah. I’m serious though. Against countries/forces with no functional air defence, upgraded 3rd generation is more than acceptable. In many cases even A-1 Skyraiders/A-26 Invader level aircraft with LGB capability would be sufficient – indeed look at usage of Atlantiques as bombers in Mali or large numbers of PC-7/EMB-312/-314 s used as light strikers across the globe.

Libya’s AD was completely useless garbage in 1986 when Yanks bombed them the first time. By 2011 it was largely non-operational and completely obsolete.

+

Oh and French Jaguars successfully bombed a Libyan Air Base during Chad conflict for no losses.

Let’s be honest, you don’t have any idea of what you’re talking about.

– Several Jaguar have been lost in Chad.
– The Lybian AA was so obsolete that the USA sent more than 100 cruise missiles and later Growler were flying with NATO planes, certainly for the lulz.

That will mean that in the 2020-2030 period when other larger NATO airforces (USA, Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Norway and probably Canada, Denmark and Belgium) are converting en masse to fifth generation F-35s as well as Russians adopting larger numbers of Pak Fas, the French will still be buying 4.5th generation jets.

Unless several excellent news for all those countries (except Norway and USA of course), I have a hard time to imagine them buying expensive 5th gen fighters and paying for a proper training.

The F-16 will still be spot in the European sky for quite some time if you want my opinion.

+ CFTs have been developed and test flown for the Rafale too. And every Rafale built is plumbed for receiving CFTs.

Nope.

In either case do I really have to ask what happens if a substantial export order doesn’t come?

Just like what happened with the previous governement, they will have to find some fund for the usual 11 Rafale package.

…and if you were a potential customer would you want to buy into a program knowing what a low priority it is for its domestic government? What does that say about its long-term support?

A purchaser so stupid that he think the Rafale is a low priority must have the budget for paper, pens and staples.