Hi space warrior. Nice to see someone sharing the same interest on the always mysterious soviet/Russian ABM programs.
I mostly agree with your view. I knew from the SpaceWar web that Russia invested heavily in advanced solid fuel production for “KEI-like” missiles. This may support your thesis that solid rocket motors for 53T6 Gazelle had resumed. May be 45T6 is just another iteration of the 53T6 or is the new short range interceptor for the S-500 system. I.e. a “mestizo” between the 53T6 and the 9M82.
Respect to the 40N6, Austin knows my opinion. I think the thing is just a 48N6 on steroids to launch on a near ballistic path to up to 400 km distances against large low maneuverable targets. Some comments on Russian forums stating that the 40N6 weights 2000 kg should support that hypothesis.
So, the 58R6 will probably be the missile “able to repel strikes from the space” of the S-500 system that can be used also to arm the static ABM Moscow system and with a limited ASAT capability. It certainly sounds logical.
Finally, if there is something for the upper tier, I think this will be in the development/design stage for a while. A Gorgon-like weapon makes sense for a period like the Cold War but no for the current days. Likely it will never be used and is expensive. Maybe there are plans to retrofit the Topol with an ABM payload in the same way the 60s Taran program proposed for SS-19 ICBMs. Who knows? In the end this sounds very low likely.
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