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Sanem

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  • in reply to: Most combat aircraft will be autonomous by 2025 #2168156
    Sanem
    Participant

    no way… transforming the current aircraft into drones would cost a fortune that nobody will be able to pay for.

    well no that’s the point
    the cost you’ll save for not having to pay and train a pilot (and conduct CSAR missions to save him if he crashes) will save a fortune
    in these times of constricted military budgets the economics of the thing will push them to switch to autonomous

    what’s more, letting the aircraft do their job autonomously brings ethics problem, about target ID, killing of people by a machine with no human in the loop.

    there’s no reason they need to be out of the loop
    modern manned aircraft check with home base all the time to confirm their targets
    there’s no reason autonomous aircraft couldn’t do the same thing

    unless they’re flying first day missions perhaps
    but then aircraft will also engage targets beyond visual range. if anything it’s safer because autonomous aircraft will not engage targets unless all their target parameters are confirmed
    and if you need to confirm the target visually, you don’t want to send in a manned aircraft into a dogfight with a Sukhoi, that’s dangerous even for an F-22, never mind for any other type of aircraft. better to send in a drone

    Most modern aircraft are fly-by-wire and flight control computers. These would be easier to integrate with than some mechanical system which are an obvious point of failure.
    We already have remote control F-16’s (used as targets), so this part is already solved.

    yes of course, but initially it might actually be easier and cheaper for a computer to control an aircraft the same way a human would
    not a programmer, not sure how hard it would be to integrate a separate computer into a modern FBW aircraft control system
    but I think it’s especially interesting for older aircraft
    say a Mig-21, you can buy those for half a million or less. make them autonomous and put some advanced missiles on them, and you’ve got a cheap and effective weapons system
    sure they won’t be as good as an autonomous F-16, but they’re fast and cheap as dirt
    and because you’ll only use them when needed maintenance costs won’t make much difference either

    in reply to: Most combat aircraft will be autonomous by 2025 #2168427
    Sanem
    Participant

    IMO 2025 is too soon because the infrastructure isn’t available. 2050 would be a better time scale for widespread autonomy within major Air Forces. Wide scale autonomy requires wide scale networks, and those do not yet exist.

    infrastructure? that’s my point, you don’t need any extra infrastructure, all you have to do is take the pilot out of the cockpit, put a computer in his seat so to speak and you’re done

    if anything you’ll need less infrastructure because you won’t need training flights anymore, or just a fraction of them
    the USAF is about to buy up to a 1000 new trainer aircraft, if their jets were autonomous they wouldn’t need any of those

    by wide scale networks I’m guessing you mean data links so the operators on the ground can see what the aircraft see. but that’s the point, there will be no need, the aircraft will only communicate with the ground when there is something to report

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2170333
    Sanem
    Participant

    Cheap at $ 50mill a pop!? lol!

    sure, compared to other stealth aircraft like $150 million for an F-22 or F-35, $200 million for an F-117 or $800 million for a B-2 that’s small change
    for that you get an F-22 level of stealth with a 2000 km range, can stay in the air for days if needed, no pilot in the way, automated carrier landing…

    Let me just put up the limitations of UAV’s:
    Atmospheric conditions.
    Time to targe
    Range(Weapons) to target.

    based on this I’m guessing you’re thinking of prop driven aircraft, I’m talking stealth jet engined UCAVs
    although India is planning to buy the Predator Avenger, which is also an advanced stealthy jet engined UCAV, for $15 million a piece
    so $50 million might be on the high end of the class price

    Limited Payload.

    would be the same ground attack payload as an F-35, certainly more than an F-22

    Jamming and hacking counter.

    fine strategies which can also be applied to satellites, guided weapons, any manned jet with a data link or that relies on GPS (which is pretty much all of them)

    the thing about UCAVs is that once they take off and know where the target is, they’ll be able to go silent and execute their mission autonomously
    so there would be no data signal to hack or jam, like an autonomous cruise missile
    nor would GPS jamming be very effective (other than maybe against its weapons, but that would also work against any manned jet)
    because it would use INS and visual recognition of the land to determine its location

    edit: as for the timeline, the FCAS is projected to replace the European manned jets by 2030 (that’s in just 13 years)
    while NG said they could have an X-47b derivative flying by 2018

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2171310
    Sanem
    Participant

    Why are you guys quoting JSR.. WHYYYYYYY!

    my mistake

    The idea of using UAV is a supplement to tactical bombers, a force multiplier if you will. It won’t take over any Su-34 role. Not in my lifetime at least.
    As a pure Recon assets, the UAV is bang on the bucks.. in every way.

    well the European countries are all exclusively working on UCAVs to replace their current fighter jets, or at least complement them in the bomber role
    so yes that will likely happen somewhere in the next 10 years

    the US and Israel likely already field UCAVs as stealth bombers, an unmanned version of the F-117 if you will, like an RQ-170 with bombs
    they likely cost less than $50 million each
    why risk an F-35 or B-2 when you can send a relatively cheap and expendable UCAV?

    in permissive air space (which is like 99% of NATO missions these days), the Predator is already performing a large number of ground attack missions
    with the payload of an F-16, but at 20% of the cost and with greatly superior loiter time

    the point being that if Russia could right now send 4 Su-30’s or 4 Reaper-class UCAVs, I think they’d go for the Reapers
    for the superior COIN capacities, but also because they can put down about as many bombs as a Sukhoi at a fraction of the cost

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2171484
    Sanem
    Participant

    It is pure nonsense that armed UCAV can change the course of war or any practical worth.

    seriously?
    Afghanistan, 2nd Iraq invasion, the drone wars under Bush and Obama, the wars in Libya and Syria, the war against ISIS…

    the US alone has 246 Predators and MQ-1C Grey Eagles; 126 MQ-9 Reapers; 491 RQ-7 Shadows; and 33 RQ-4 Global Hawk large systems
    if UCAVs are so useless, then why is the Pentagon buying so many?

    the only other new combat aircraft the USAF is buying is the F-35, which is a flying joke when deployed against insurgents, and a waste of money in any operation where the enemy doesn’t have first class air defences

    It inhibits airforce capabilities to properly train pilots. take valuable manpower from critical tasks.

    there I do agree, notably the USAF insisted when it started to operate UCAVs that they would be flown by experienced pilots
    unsurprisingly pilots hated this, wasting years of world class flight experience sitting in a container, and many quit because they signed up to fly, not to control toy aircraft

    meanwhile the USArmy used NCOs to fly its drones, and actually performed better than the USAF (notably because they chose to equip their UCAVs with autmoated take-off and landing equipment, something the USAF purposefully chose not to do and led to a lot of UAV crashes)

    if you still not understanding it than look at operation decisive storm in yemen with it 400 combat aircraft and 20,000 bombs dropped.

    yes, the Saudi’s where so desperate for UAVs in that theater that they bought Chinese ones
    one of the wealthiest countries in the world needed them so bad that they bought Chinese knock offs, because 400 of the most advanced combat aircraft in the world were not enough

    Predator at $5m?

    Predator Unit cost: $20 million (includes four aircraft with sensors, ground control station and Predator Primary satellite link) (fiscal 2009 dollars)

    It is the Sukhoi that kept every one else out of Syrian theatre. If Russia brought those cheap uncapable UAV with no big self protection pods, no antiship/antiradiaton missiles, Turks/Saudi would have greatly expanded there war on Syria.

    yes, and if the Russians had air combat capable UCAVs then everyone else would be even more scared of crossing them, because they’d be facing waves of cheap, expendable and super manouverable jets that’ll face down F-22’s without blinking

    unfortunately those fancy Sukhoi’s didn’t scare Turkey enough and cost the lives of two Su-24 pilots. if that had been a UCAV those kids would not have lost their fathers

    UAVs are for country like Turkey and Israel with no heavy engineering background. for Russia UAVs are the side business not the main business.

    the US is the biggest operator of UCAVs in the world, are you saying it doesn’t have any heavy engineering?

    Israel has some of the most advanced aircraft and weapons on the planet, yet they still put a lot of money and time into UCAVs, which are also an integral part of their most important combat missions

    and the problem of Turkey right now in their offensive against ISIS isn’t that they don’t have enough F-16s, it’s that they don’t have enough UCAVs

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2172066
    Sanem
    Participant

    Armed drone will decrease the effectiveness of rest of Ruaf at this point.

    I think that’s true, Russia doesn’t have the industry or the experience to field advanced UAVs at this time
    that said this is an obvious fault of their military leadership, UAVs have proven their value many times over by now, the failure of Russia to keep up is costing them now

    The Iraqis have used quite a number of Chinese Ch-5’s and my understanding is they would probably happily trade them all in for a half dozen Su-25’s.

    interesting, any quotes on that?
    but I guess then you mean that the UAVs can’t carry enough payload to be effective, but I don’t think that’s their job, they might as well complain that their prop COIN aircraft can’t intercept F-22s

    incidentally the IqAF does have a number of advanced F-16s with outdated weapons, I’m guessing they’d rather exchange those first 😉

    Even the lightly loaded strike Chinese UAVs would be useful – VKS is operating Searchers and I don’t think operational costs would be that much high to outweigh the cost of a light strike capability tied in with real time surveillance.
    A thermobaric warhead on even a medium sized missile would have acceptable area effect.

    well between purely recon UAVs and the RuAF’s ability to deploy a lot of manned jets quickly I’d say they have it covered
    I think they lack of precision weapons is a bigger problem when fighting COIN
    which is why I’m thinking of radio guided bombs: cheap and precise, and I doubt ISIS and the FSA have the jammers to affect them
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?141553-Radio-guided-bombs

    While it has been locating possible targets as vehicles with the use of radar, the Ka-52 could approach and use the GOES-451 system to confirm them, while it kept out of range of the insurgents, as well as the Ka- 52 could attacking these with its own weapons and to command others aircraft’s or ground troops to engage the enemy.
    If UAV has more autonomy than helicopters like the Ka-52, the Ka-52 can operate very close at the enemy from mobile forward bases, since these does not demand air bases or even improvised runways like the UAV.

    problem with the Ka-52 is that is has a range of 500km. I’m guessing it won’t be able to stay up for much longer than 3 hours
    by contrast a Ch-4 is said to have a 5000km range
    what truly makes the Ka-52 so special are its sensors, you put those on an (unarmed) Ch-4 class aircraft (which could be as cheap as $5-10 million) and you’ve got a 40 hour J-STAR equivalent for a fraction of the price

    RuAF operate is strict contact with SAA troops on the ground, not sending drones hundred of km into enemy line begging for found a viable target like int. coalition do, so even a tactical drone, just for keep a constant look from the air iis more than enough.
    Every time a formation of russian planes take off from Latakia it has several option of intervention thank of troops action on ground.

    yeah but if an Su-30 averages at $50 million and Russia were to be able to buy Predator class UAVs at say $5 million then they’d be able to field 10 UAVs for the cost of one Sukhoi, probably costs about the same in fuel too

    equip them with small caliber precision guided weapons, and you’ll be able to give 10 ground units 24/7 day/night overwatch and instant strike capability

    not bad for buying one less Sukhoi. buy 4 less Sukhoi’s and you’ve got 40 UAVs, that’s probably more air power than the Syrians can bring to bear at this point. hell you can equip them with dumb bombs and they’ll still be more useful than those expensive Sukhoi’s

    All this talk about drones. If drones were the be-all and end-all then I doubt that the US would still be using the 60’s era U2. Drones have their drawbacks. Russia has elected not to prioritize them. Yet.

    actually the plan was to make the U-2 unmanned as well, which would make the plane even better. sending any human flying that high for that long is absurd. but with the F-35 (another manned plane) taking up all the money there’s nothing left for the really useful stuff

    also the U-2 is probably outdated by the USAF’s secret stealth UAV force like the Sentinel

    No, Russian companies just have yet to make a modern half decent one.

    yeah Russia could be dominating the UAV market if they had gotten on that, as well as greatly improved their declining air power for a fraction of the cost of manned jets

    the Russians have decades of experience with unmanned aircraft and missiles, I’m sure they’d be able to figure it out
    I don’t understand why Mig isn’t all over this to keep the Mig-29 lines open

    keep the wings, ditch one engine and reduce the tail
    this gives you a small, light aircraft with lots of fuel and payload capacity
    and dirt cheap because you’re using all existing parts that are still in production
    and easy to maintain because your conscripts already know the engine and most of the aircraft

    http://i.imgur.com/WHydsKj.png

    There is no reason to have a parallel armed drone program running in Syria when you have a functioning air force right there. SU 25 SU 24 and SU 34’s are already there ready and able to do whatever is needed.

    well there’s cost, armed UAVs cost a fraction of manned fighter jets

    there’s performance, loiter time is more important in COIN operations, and ground units prefer a 24/7 guardian angel with precision weapons over a manned jet that can take ages to get there, and then can’t do anything because the enemy is too close to the friendlies, which is a good thing because half the time they can’t tell friend from foe anyway (contrary to a UAV which has been watching the terrain for hours and knows perfectly well which is which)

    and then there’s the small detail of pilots getting killed, like the Su-24 that got shot down

    The AP is reporting that the Air Force is cancelling the RQ-4 Global Hawk high-altitude spy drone opting instead to keep the legendary U-2 Dragon Lady in service.

    the USAF has also tried to cancel the A-10 for decades. they’re idiots
    or maybe they knew Congress would never allow that, so they didn’t fund the aircraft knowing that Congress would give them more money for it
    nice bureaucratic move: Congress gets to look good for saving the A-10, and if they call the AF’s bluff they get to ditch the A-10, it’s a win-win for them

    in reply to: Radio-guided bombs #1785810
    Sanem
    Participant

    yes that’s a good idea, that would work too
    you would indeed need to have a radar pointing in the right direction
    so a second aircraft or even an AWACS could be used for that

    in reply to: Radio-guided bombs #1785812
    Sanem
    Participant

    it sends out a radio signal, which allows the controller unit (which has a gps) to calculate it’s location and thus send out course corrections

    in reply to: Radio-guided bombs #1785817
    Sanem
    Participant

    thanks for pointing them out, interesting stuff

    but both are manually operated, the whole point of computers these days is that they would guide those weapons much better
    without placing a large burden on pilots
    also many GPS guided weapons today do have radio links that can be used to send target updates. meaning you could use those same links to guide the weapon, and could ditch the GPS and advanced course correcting computers all together, which would save a lot of money I’m sure

    in reply to: US CAS rethinking going on #2178182
    Sanem
    Participant

    CPI from 1994 to 2016 was a total of 51.5%, or a compiled 67.5%
    starting with the original 1994 cost estimate of $28 million for the F-35A
    then it should have cost $46.9 million in 2016
    instead it cost $109.88 million, more than double

    in reply to: US CAS rethinking going on #2179008
    Sanem
    Participant

    “The F-35 will be an amazing plane, $30 million a piece, VTOL and CTOL, stealth, it will match the performance of the F-15, the F-16, the F-18, computer simulation will allow us to skip testing altogether and go straight to production…”
    “Cool, and can it take over the CAS role from the A-10?”
    “Euh… Sure, why not. Sign here.”

    Buying these low end aircraft in 2022 means they’ll be 20 years late. I’d think they’re doing it on purpose.

    in reply to: Should Iraq have bought the Su-30? #2180021
    Sanem
    Participant

    The Iraq is dependent on a constant support, when it is about the hardware in the inventory. If it stops for an unknown reason, just some friendly countries can help for some time at least.

    about that, can China or India also maintain the Su-30MKK?
    if so that’d be pretty cool from a geopolitcal point of view
    I can’t think of many other advanced aircraft that can be maintained by more than one nation
    if not today, maybe in the future, as India and China play industrial catch up with Russia and the US

    in reply to: Should Iraq have bought the Su-30? #2181538
    Sanem
    Participant

    yeah I guess they’re pretty even

    although with its larger payload, access to more advanced weapons and likely faster delivery, it would have certainly been a more effective bomber to target ISIS

    in reply to: Very light anti-tank plane #2172797
    Sanem
    Participant

    I love the Ares design
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_ARES

    Fast, light, good range, big gun…
    Make it unmanned, fly it in fast and hard and it will murder anything it hits.

    Most armies would rather have a man in the loop, especially this close to friendly troops.

    Today the RuAF hit some Syrian troops, and the coalition jets hit some Iraqi troops.

    There was talk by DARPA of making the A-10 unmanned and infantry controlled.
    Which would also allow you to remove a lot of the titanium, as well as the canopy.

    in reply to: If you had to choose between Rafale or F-35 #2137186
    Sanem
    Participant

    neither really, in the next years technology will go into overdrive and it’ll evolve faster than you would believe
    and they’ll both soon become outdated, you’ll be better off buying UCAVs, which will be cheaper and better in every way
    or you’ll have to upgrade every year, rather than every 10 years or so
    that’s because military grade technology is expensive and complicated, so when you upgrade it’s good enough for a decade or so
    but because technology will start to evolve so fast at a much lower cost, today’s tech won’t last a decade. and that trend will only get worse

    although then the Rafale has the advantage in that it’s a mature and largely paid for platform, while the US just spent a huge budget on what will soon be a useless piece of metal. if they do build more than a few 100 that is
    it’ll be much easier to upgrade the Rafale with new electronics, TVC, weapons, etc… compared to the F-35 were you can’t just go around putting in new electronics and hanging new stuff off it

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 545 total)