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Spitfire9

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,726 through 1,740 (of 2,413 total)
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  • in reply to: MMRCA news thread 10 #2321996
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    The trouble is, production of components in India may not kick in till 2018, and that the initial production rate might be low as well, by that time over half of the deliveries for other customers should be over, and whatever demand remains could be met by the european suppliers, who would be churning out components at their highest rate.

    If India signs a contract next year, they can surely get up and running on component manufacture before 2018? Perhaps I don’t live in the real world but I used to work in Formula One. I don’t recall anyone taking 5 years+ to design, develop, test and produce components for next year’s car!

    It’s amazing how quickly things can be done if you work within a culture where time matters.

    in reply to: MMRCA news thread 10 #2322010
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Yeah, i agree but in these Eco-turmoil times.. imagine what jobb cuts in Europe will look like in world press.
    The bad PR for both comapny would be massive..
    I don’t see it happening on a large scale anyway.

    The four partners in Eurofighter all produce components and assemble aircraft. If India chooses Eurofighter there will be a big increase in work for the four existing partners. What’s the problem with India taking some of that extra work and creating jobs in India? Win/win for existing partners and for India IMO.

    in reply to: MMRCA news thread 10 #2322106
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    My point is, whom ever wins will send Kits to India/HAL and slowly dwindle down the shipments as HAL get their own supply chains up and going?

    As a way of getting the transitional Indian Production going as smood as possible..?

    I’m not sure what Dassault propose but Eurofighter propose partnership on the program. India would be free to do as it wished with developments that they desired to implement on Typhoon. I’m not sure if partnership status would mean India supplanting other manufacturers for the provision of some components in the aircraft they ordered. If India could produce those components more cheaply than Eurofighter it would make sense to source them from India, would it not? Not just for the frames for the IAF but for all customers. That would make Typhoon more competitive on price when trying to secure future contracts.

    in reply to: MMRCA news thread 10 #2322131
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Off topic and I apologise.. I think Bush has damaged the international reputation of the US almost irreparable… and will probably be seen by history as the start of the decline of the US influence on the world.

    PS Quote from previous thread. I apologise, too, for being off topic

    He was not too bright on Iraq, was he? Once the Americans + allies had got rid of Saddam, he thought the liberated people of Iraq would live in blissful peace and harmony. No need to make any post-military victory plans. He was advised by the Brits, I believe, that this was naive and a recipe for chaos post-Saddam. Blair should have told him that unless proper plans were made for the post-Saddam era, the Brits would not participate.

    How much has the USA spent on its Iraq adventure? I have heard a figure of $1,000 billion. Iraq has a population of about 30 million. According to Wikipedia (citing as source IMF), estimated GDP in 2010 was $113 billion or $3537 per capita. Spending $1,000 billion over 8 years on 30 million people = $4000+ per annum per Iraqi citizen. It would have been far cheaper to more than double the standard of living of Iraqis, thereby buying their support, than to fight those who did not want foreign troops occupying their country. It would have saved tens of thousands of Iraqi lives and thousands of American ones, too.

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2322133
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    What Too_cool seems to be missing is that for Dassault, anything more than the marginal cost of producing another aircraft is immediately beneficial financially, & even selling at production cost is profitable eventually, because of income from support.

    I believe that this is the view taken by the civil majors – drop your price to nominal profit on producing the goods to secure a large order if you have to since you will be making a good profit from spares and other services over the lifetime of the aircraft. I would say that this works even better for manufacturers of military aircraft: airliners do not get mid-life updates which can be highly profitable for their original manufacturer whereas military aircraft often do eg IAF M2K

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2322256
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    @ spitfire9:

    when the deal for the rafale was made initially, it was cold war, and the market for french aircraft was quite significant (if anything, the french forces were supposed to buy a higher number of airframes, which, by itself would have reduced the costs per airframe), and many nations had sufficintly high defense budgets to afford a good number of airframes.

    that is the situation in which dassault had agreed with the french state over the deal

    then came 1989 and the end of the cold war. the defence budgets shrinked to ridiculously low levels compared to what they previously were, and, as a result, orders were reduced/delayed, and the potential markets did the same.

    Good point – the market became smaller than Dassault reasonably estimated it would be. But if market conditions change, you have to adjust your plans to the new situation.

    now dassault has, as I said in a previous post, something like 7bn dollars to recover and it can’t expect to sell 2-300 airframes on top of french orders like with the mirage 2000. as a result, they have to make that money with lesser aircraft, and that gives a higher price per airframe. it’s not considering customers as idiots, as they’ll have to pay similar amount or higher for any new airframe.

    If you are right and other manufacturers would charge a similar price for a similar product then Dassault is still competitive price-wise. You had better hope that if Eurofighter quote their best price, it is not significantly lower than what Dassault are asking.

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2322659
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    now, considering that 290 aircraft at 147 millions pay the airframes (75 millions per airframeà and the states development part (about 70 million per airframe ordered (a litlle over 20bn dollars in total)), and considering that dassault had to pay 25% of development costs (one third of what the french government paid), that would mean that dassault has to recover around 7bn dollars on top of airframes’ price to get its investment back.

    Sorry. I don’t understand. Dassault has not spent 7bn dollars on R&D investment.

    Overall, they can make money either by selling airframes, or by selling technology (ToT), but inn any case, somebody has to pay for it, or the company looses money. Now, if they get two customers to pay, they’ll start making profits and be able to propose a cheaper aircraft to next customers. the same goes for any aircraft… take the f-35, it costs a fortune right now, and everybody (especially those trying to sell it) will explain any future customer that the price he’ll pay in the future will be lower than now because of production ramping up and development repaid over more airframes, except that the first customers will never see any money back because there are more airframes produced later on, they’ll have paid a high price, because they were the first. the same goes for the rafale: the first to order will pay dassaults investments, and those who’ll comme later may get a bette rdeal as dassault will have recovered his investment and there will be a bigger margin (profits) to play with

    F-35 is many years late. Some potential customers chose to order it years ago when the price was low but now need it because their existing fighter fleets are ageing and they either spend a lot more maintaining them or pay a premium for early production batches of F-35. Rafale has no potential customers who planned for Rafale years ago and now urgently need to acquire it so will pay a very hig price.

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2322820
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    147 millions is the overall price when you divide what the french government will have paid when all the airframes will have been bought. the customer should pay dassault only for the part of development investment that dassault made, not the part already paid by the french govenment

    I think you are completely correct in what you say. If I pay an engineer 1 million dollars to design something for me, he is mad if he gets an enquiry and increases his price to the potential customer so he can recover the design cost already paid by me – and put it in his own pocket.

    and i fthey sell it too low, they’ll have to sell an unsellable number of airframes to get the money back. at 150 million apiece, they’d need to sell about 90-100 airframes in export to get their investment back, which may be reached between the few potential customers. put the price at 117 million (UAEs offer) and you have to sell something like 180-200 airframes to break even… where will they sell them?

    They won’t sell them at 150 million a piece if the buyer knows they have been sold at 75 million a piece to another customer. Buyers don’t like to be treated like idiots. It is inevitably the role of the buyer to help repay your investment in R&D via higher prices since R&D is not free but not if you try to recover it on an unrealistically low number of frames.

    besides, we can talk all we want, the typhoon, with most of the features besides the a2a unfinanced yet can’t get even close to that price (somebody will have to pay for the developments, and the europeans are broke… so, what do you think? how many billions will UAE spend just for the development of the typhoon so that it reaches their level of expectations before buying a single airframe?

    You say the Europeans are broke. Having already spent perhaps 30 billion euros on design, development and production of 300 Typhoons, are you seriously suggesting they cannot afford 1 more billion to integrate all A2G products available for Typhoon?

    The profit goes to the producer and the development cost will be payed by the tax-payer as everywhere. 😉

    I agree. If the USA wants an aircraft for its forces, it expects its own people to pay for it, not foreigners through some enormous extra charge on exports of that aircraft.

    Before Dassault spent 2-3 billion euros of their own on Rafale they should have looked at the world market for the aircraft over its selling lifetime (say, 15+ years) and priced their product accordingly. If they are hoping to recover their investment on 100 or so export sales, that shows rather feeble business skills as well as a surprising lack of faith in their product.

    in reply to: Nice MMRCA News and Discussion 9 #2322959
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    “Historic +290 million Pounds – Changed Capability Requirement

    Provision for integration of new weapons and sensors not contained within original approval (includes Conventionally Armed Stand-Off Missile, Advanced Anti-Armour Weapon, Low-Level Laser Guided Bomb, thermal imaging airborne laser designator) (+£239m)

    Thanks, Sintra, very interesting to know. So £239 million to integrate 3 x A2G systems including ancilliary equipment? My guess is that it would be possible to integrate all desired A2G systems for <£500 million starting from scratch. Given what the partners had committed to spend on development and production and getting the aircraft into service, I am amazed that they could not find their way to plan integration of all existing A2G weapons required so that they would be live on Typhoon by now.

    ps- For the “nerds” (me included) the UK NAO “Ministry of Defence: The Major Projects Report 2011” just got released, the “cost to complete” the Typhoon program for the RAF just got two+ billion pounds lower than what was in the equivalent report last year. I think that the Saudi payments just kicked in (and throws the entire NAO : Ministry of Defence: Management of the Typhoon Project report into “chaos”, “yes we forgot the Saudi thingy, its just couple and a half of billion pounds less than what we´ve written a few months ago”…).
    http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/1012/major_projects_report_2011.aspx

    Chaos? That’s the normal level of organisation in the defence procurement management sector IMO. What you describe is just more chaotic than usual.

    in reply to: Nice MMRCA News and Discussion 9 #2323070
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    I am told that Dassault paid out of their own pockets about 25% of Rafale development costs. Am I right in thinking that Eurofighter has contributed 0% to Typhoon development costs?

    On the tack of the lack of A2G weapons integrated on the Typhoon: why did Eurofighter not fund integration of weapons out if their own pockets – to be retrieved from the partner countries later with interest – so that the prospects of Typhoon were improved in possible export contracts?

    What does it cost to integrate, say, Brimstone? Are we talking 10 million euros? 50 million?

    What does it cost to integrate the smaller LGB’s if you have already integrated a large one? Can’t be much if the software is already there for one LGB from the same manufacturer.

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2323949
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Including the fundings for the whole program into airframe price for the french forces is about 147 million dollars/frame, not so different from the price to which dassault came down (9bn/60 airframes, which is 150 million dollars apiece)

    Something wrong with your calculation, I think. Why should the customer repay Dassault for the costs of development paid by the French government? I presume your figure of airframe price for the french forces is about 147 million dollars/frame includes development costs paid by the state.

    you should read what he posted after: the 75 million per airframe is “with developement paid already” (state’s 75% of investment), while dassault has yet to get back its 25% of development investment they had to do.

    If Dassault prices too highly and loses deals, they won’t get any of their development expenditure back on those lost deals, will they?

    in reply to: Eurofighter being approached by UAE #2324326
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Keep in mind that in addition to the price the french pay there was 75% of the development price, and that Dassault financed 25% of the cost of development which it still has to recoup with export sales. It can’t accept to sell for less that what they sell to the AdlA, or MN, knowing that those actually financed 75% of the development.

    I understand that Dassault needs to charge extra to recover development costs financed by themselves. Airbus and Boeing do that. I believe before launching development of an aircraft they estimate costs and spread those costs over a number of aircraft and increase the price accordingly on that number of aircraft. Let’s say 500 to break even for A320 and 1000 for 787.

    In the case of retrieving their own development costs, I wonder what number of frames Dassault is basing that on. Let’s say 400 frames (sales to French forces + exports). They must be retrieving development costs from their launch customer with each aircraft built so I don’t understand the need to treat export customers differently to the French state in terms of recovering their own development costs (25% of total). I can understand Dassault having to charge extra on each export sale to pay something to the French government since the French government paid 75% of Rafale development costs.

    I’m not an accountant but I hope you see what I am saying.

    in reply to: Hot Dog Indian AF News and Discussion Part 17 #2324393
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Depends on requirements on it, Tejas can’t and won’t keep up with contemporary fighters at lower altitudes, irrespective of delays.
    IAF & navy can be convinced to accept it or not.

    I imagine that with a 120Kn engine Mk2 is not going to have speed problems but it’s not just going to be a re-engined Mk1 with the wrinkles ironed out, so I suppose it could be subject to delay as is Mk1.

    IAF might be quietly pleased if Mk2 is late – they can argue they need more MMRCA’s.

    in reply to: Hot Dog Indian AF News and Discussion Part 17 #2324479
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    More delays on the LCA front…this has become a national joke now

    http://www.deccanherald.com/content/205807/tejas-induction-only-mid-2014.html

    Answering queries from the media after inaugurating a conference here, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne said the IOC-2 is expected only by mid-2012 and the final operational clearance could be scheduled only two years after that.

    Pointing out that there are some delays in its development, he said: “The delay is caused by the active monsoon during which not many flights could be undertaken. But there are also some technical issues that have to be resolved as we go along.”

    With Tejas Mk1 FOC expected mid-2014 at the earliest (probably some time in 2015?) will the MMRCA winner end up receiving orders for as many as 250? I ask that because continued delays in Tejas Mk1 may be followed by delays in Tejas Mk2. India needs aircraft in numbers sooner rather than later to replace ageing MiG’s and to increase squadron strength.

    in reply to: Nice MMRCA News and Discussion 9 #2324500
    Spitfire9
    Participant

    Winner to be disclosed by mid-December ( …2020 or 2030 or something like that :eek:)

    http://livefist.blogspot.com/2011/11/mmrca-winner-will-emerge-mid-december.html

    If you read the article. what it says is:

    “There are a lot of complicated figures. But mid-December we should have a good sense of who gets selected.”

    I think that what Air Chief Marshal N.A.K. Browne may be saying is that should the price and other elements of the two rival bids start to diverge, a clear leader may emerge before the process has been worked through in its entirety. Just as it is possible to have a good sense of who the winner will be in a two party election even though a some of the votes have yet to be counted.

    I don’t think his statement necessarily means that the winner will be announced by mid-December. Would be nice though if it were and this saga drew towards a close.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,726 through 1,740 (of 2,413 total)