Given that the system is not designed to protect Europe from an Iranian ICBM attack and such benefits are secondary at a remote best, I don’t see how that’s a problem to be honest. As I understand it whether you place them in Scotland or Poland they already do precious little to that end; I don’t see how they can possibly protect anything much south of the launch site in the first place if they can only kill a missile before it launches its RVs. If they want to protect Britain all they need do is base Ticonderogas and Arleigh Burkes at points of interest, surely?
Not to mention that the Azerbaijan radar would have provided far better early warning radar coverage as far as I can see. And missiles in western Turkey would have surely done a better job than either Poland or Scotland at both defending the effective entirety of Europe and America.
Commander can you not see the massive contradiction in what you’ve written there?.
You’ve stated that shielding US assets in Europe as well as European countries themselves is a secondary capability and then stated, if a major goal was the potection of Europe, the missiles should be in Turkey!.
The simple answer here is that missiles in Turkey dont shield the US as the trajectory is wrong and, as you say, that is the primary goal for the system. The missiles in Poland simply do MORE to shield Europe than missiles based in Scotland would do. Seeings that there is no sincere reason why missiles in Poland are more threatening to Russia than missiles in Scotland would be there is no valid reason not to site them where they will achieve the most coverage.
I cant quite understand the concept of siting the radar needed to target the GBI’s a) within range of existing Iranian short range heavy rocket artillery and b) in a position where it would have to ‘look-back’ towards Russia to track the vehicle in the midcourse?. In every regard siting the radar as intended gives it a much better FoV, over the inbound flight segment that the GBI is going for the intercept in, and its considerably safer, physically, than it would be in Azerbaijan.
Just looking deeper into the OPV side of this and, Steve’s comments notwithstanding, its a very interesting design!. There are some deliciously detailed blueprints on the Aker website of the PV85 general arrangement.
Whilst I dont know about OTO guns and VLS fitting this design, looking at the capabilities on offer, I’d say it offers remarkable potential as a low-end ASW corvette for the many navies now considering solutions to neighbour states SSK capabilities.
The aft working deck, on the OPV, looks viable to be reconfigured to fit a Thales CAPTAS Nano active towed array on the centreline and an STWS-2 launcher on each beam. The vessel has plenty of spaces convertible to an ASW ops room and the ability to operate a chopper up to FLynx size is an obvious advantage. There appears to be plenty of space to expand the avcat bunkerage aboard though a couple of the 6 berth accomodation spaces on 1deck would likely have to make way for an air ordnance magazine and hoist. Converting the remaining 4 berth rooms to 6 berth should deal with any accom issues.
Above water weapons I’d keep common with the upgunned IPV to be honest. Mk110 forward for surface and, limited, anti-air/missile duties and a modest fit of NSM launchers on the weather deck aft of the bridge, displacing the SATCOM dome, should suffice. Any one of a number of commercially available 3D air/surf search sets would fit and a lightweight director plus ESM/offboard decoy fit would round it out.
Increases in total weight would actually be marginal and mostly at maindeck level meaning that stability should not be much affected. Removal of the ice strengthening, for those customers not requiring it, is likely to bring the hull very close being in line with the current manufacturers spec. For those requiring it the design would probably benefit from an extra 5m in the length and a couple of metres on the beam, plus a modest upgrade in engine power to keep the performance curve.
GBI’s in Scotland do nothing for the defence of Europe against Iranian missiles. The US has plenty of interests not to mention deployed forces in Europe. They want cooperation for siting of NMD infrastructure in Europe then benefits to Europe also have to come in somewhere. Remember that the UK has been touted as a useful target, in Iranian politico-military circles, as a good choice for ‘sending a message’ to the US.
No matter how often the paranoia light flashes, Coolio, Russia has no credible excuse to make such heavy weather of a system that, plainly, is nothing whatsoever to do with them.
As stated Steve Ja was theorising an ‘upgunned’ version. This is purely a theoretical exercise based on what the hull could, potentially accomodate.
At $25mn a pop the IPVs are obviously not suited for any other mission than inshore patrol as they stand.
Whats the purpose of the missiles on the IPV Ja?. I’m guessing you’re thinking of a way of putting a bit more punch onto the boats for dealing with moderately well equipped pirates/terrorists and for a second-role limited warfighting mission?. Local defence/coastal convoy escort sort of asset?. Interesting idea but I think your weapons choice might land the crew in a spot of bother mate!.
As seen off Somalia pirates, all over the place, have real seamanship skills these days. They also have access to a large range of weaponry. I think it was an LTTE manned tramp steamer that used an old Russian 82mm mortar to give the Sri Lankan navy a nasty shock from 3000+ yards a few years back!. If they can get their mitts on an old TOW or Konkurs type ATGM (as confiscated from Hezbollah) or even something like the Type 85 RL’s used by the Taleban all bloody over Afghanistan then that 25mm Typhoon might just be a bit too light for the job.
I think I’d want to truncate the foredeck superstructure extension at the first break. Effectively removing it from the platform currently occupied by the liferafts forwards. In the space created I’d bolt on a Mk110 57mm. Resite the SATCOM dome on the bridge roof and, probably, build out a platform forward from the mainmast to support a lightweight director (LIROD or similar type). Should get pretty good arcs and the Bofors mount seems to be perfectly serviceable aboard the equivalent sized Swedish corvettes.
Manual pintle mount mk44 miniguns or, if you feel the threat warrants, naval mount GAU-19’s on each beam on the gun deck for RHIB/fast boat threats close in and for the normal constabulary work.
The Gabriels are trouble IMHO. If you are faced with a target sufficiently advanced to need them against then the odds are, by the time they are in range of a Gabriel 2, they’ve likely already fired on you. If you want a military capability and beyond horizon-range targets (horizon-range serviced by the 57mm) then first thing fit a datalink terminal!. Perhaps you could mount 2×2 NSM cannisters athwartships behind the superstructure if you remove one of the davits and mount the remaining one again athwartships deploying over the stern. The missiles would be for-but-not-with, but, would at least offer some useable standoff capability on a bearing only attack or with offboard designation.
Ahhh got to love the sensationalist media dont you.
On November 13, [u]Sevmash’s announcement[/u] that the updated carrier would soon be afloat was followed by a notice that the warship [u]could[/u] join the Russian navy if no agreement on costs is reached.
becomes
The state news agency RIA Novosti yesterday quoted a [b]Defence Ministry official[/b] in Moscow as delivering an ultimatum: if the Indians refused to pay, the carrier [u]would[/u] be transferred to the depleted Russian fleet.
So with a simple slip of the pen/keyboard a purely commercial statement from a private enterprise becomes a political comment from the ruling administration.
Laughable!
OK. Lets suppose it was only poor project management. So why India and Russia have had to talk about it at the highest of the levels, and yet its getting from bad to worse. Is this the norm? Serving officers of both nations have now made certain remarks about this deal. Does this normally happen?
I’m afraid I dont quite follow your reasoning Vikasrehman. This is a contract between the Indian Govt and the Russian shipyard. One side of the contract has gone south following incompetence. The Russian shipyard has, in the same fashion companies do all over the world, asked its government to help it negotiate a way out of the mess. What would you consider unprecedented about high-level negotiations to get the contract back on track?.
You do appreciate that it isnt the Russian Govt. that is asking for more money to complete this ship dont you?.
Having said this, while poor project management could partly be responsible for this saga, part of it is also linked to geopolitical situation.
Absolutely no chance. Geopolitics happen at government level. This deal was stuffed up at the yard.
Good question Scooter.
I would postulate that the level of work done on Varyag at Dalian looks a lot more like preparations to bring the ship into some sort of service rather than a paint job for an amusement park or floating casino or something.
Varyag has been in the yard for over two years now. That in and of itself certainly seems to be suspicious.
An assessment I’d concur with. Although it must be pointed out that an aircraft-carrier lookalike tourist attraction must actually be made to look like an aircraft-carrier!. Still 2 years is a lot of yard time for completion of the internal spaces and a few coats of red lead.
The components RSM has indicated are all absolutely viable for post-build inclusion. Though it must be said the HVAC (life-support?) runs being left out from the initial build suprises me. Its easier to put in those conduits, along with major cable trays etc, when you are putting the hull together. The thing that might be the give away, if anyone knows it, is the power train i.e gearboxes and shafts.
These have to be very precisely fitted and balanced not just physically within the hull, but, also with the main engines. If the Chinese are intending to use different rated engines, to the original Russian spec, the gearboxes and shafts will need to be matched to the different output and revolutions range. That is a lot of work and at an end of the ship that would not be expected to see such work where it being completed as a casino?.
If it is China’s intent to get a carrier in the fleet, as it does seem to be now, its hard to see why they would send Varyag back to get Gorshkov?!. They’ve clearly spent money getting her squared away and looking ‘proper’. The million dollar question is whether she’s been fitted with engines and is, in fact, being prepared for operational service.
The underlying problem is that Gorshkov, for all the sincere improvements made, will always be compromised by its aircraft-carrying cruiser heritage. It will operate a modest airgroup of MiG-29 sized fighters only. China would seem to benefit little from inducting Mig-29’s when she has her own J-10’s and, for the size of airgroup Gorshkov will embark, its scarely worth navalising J-10….IF you would really want to try STOBAR ops with a single-engined type in the first place?.
Gorshkov doesnt really make a lot of sense anywhere as a carrier other than with caveats of it coming ‘free’ and offering marginally more capability than the Harrier-carriers it was needed to replace!.
Oh come on Tinwing what use does the Russian Navy have for this ship?. Its going to go to the trouble of inducting and supporting a new fastjet type, alongside the investment made in the Su-30’s, just to get a modest carrier able to operate a modest airgroup to modest effect???.
The Russian Navy traditionally does things its own way but I cant see them being that stupid. They’ve stated a goal for more carriers in the same vein as the Kuznetsov….not the Gorshkov!.
Why has this become an issue of geopolitical alliances?. The simple fact is the the Russians did a shoddy prep job on the Gorshkov conversion and the Indians let them do it!.
Why India wasnt tougher on the Russians it can only be speculated. Possibly they thought they were getting a serious bargain and didnt want to slap the gift horse in the mouth, or, perhaps there were political considerations owing to other deals going through at the same time – I expect it will be years before the whole story comes out. What is an absolute inescapable fact is that they could not have got to this state of affairs with proper project management and oversight of the Russian schedule of works in place.
People on this site, with maritime knowledge, were expressing significant concerns about the cost and duration of the original contract. Those concerns were exacerbated further when details on the scope of works started to trickle out. Ultimately those concerns were borne out by events.
If a bunch of knowledgeable, but uninvolved, people completely distant from the project could get the call right then do not be under ANY misapprehension that both involved parties were fully aware, from day 1, what the objective realities were regarding the completion of this project. This state of affairs is no suprise to the IN – unless they are a bunch of incompetent morons – which I do not believe for a second.
As to the conspiracy theories of Russia trying to jemmy the Gorshkov back out of India’s waiting hands forget it. Answer one question – what use is a carrier, to Russia or China, that cannot operate the Su-30?.
I’ve been following this thread with a layman’s eye and have to wonder about standardization practices. My background is IT/Internet and it would seem logical to me that a common set of protocols would have been developed that both hardware and software had to adhere to so the costs and development times wouldn’t be as much.
I guess I’m thinking from an end user’s perspective and not a sales perspective.
Its not a situation that is limited to the military sphere at all though. I work civvy datacomms now and I can tell you that the same big problem exists here too. Multivendor environments. Get a piece of kit from one company to work seamlessly with that from another and you’ve had the blessings of the Great Pumpkin on you Charlie Brown!.
Case in point a few years back if you wanted to get a Cisco router to talk to a 3Com switch (two of the bigger players in the game) over fast ethernet forget it unless you knew the trick. Fast Ethernet is an open standard (IEEE 802.3u) and both vendors built compatible to that spec. Should work perfectly you’d think after all that is the point of the open standard.
Connections wouldnt work, out of the box, though as the algorythm that 3com used for autonegotiation of the speed and duplex settings of the link clashed with the algorythm used by the Cisco. The two would never sync up and the link would stay firmly down until you fixed the configuration of the ports both sides. I think its still Cisco best practice not to use autoneg!.
Open standard doesnt mean full compatibility anywhere you have multivendor products trying to get integrated. Now you might get the hint that integrating, for example, a weapon like Storm Shadow onto F-35 is something to be approached in the fear of god!.:D
As two-stage weapons, I don’t know their lateral range, but I didn’t think it was far enough to hit something bound for the UK. They don’t have the same range capabilities as the existing Alaska missiles.
I cant add anything to Distillers views here except to say that the Fylingdales X-band upgrade has been sold to UK Govt on the strength that the GBI’s based in Europe will screen the UK.
And they can pressure the US far more capably with their current missiles by nuking the oil they depend on in the Middle East if need be, never mind Europe. They’re certainly not seeming to be slowing down in missile development by any reports.
Doubt it. The prevailing winds, for most of the year, in the gulf from the Saudi and southern Iraqi fields are northerly and north-westerly. The northely winds will take fallout and dump it over Tehran and the NW winds will dump all that good stuff on Israel. They would, I’m sure, not take kindly to Iran dumping tons of radioactive fallout on them.
.. it is neither impossible nor unlikely that they will be able to source enough nuclear material for a dozen warheads in the timeframe of the missile’s operation. Particularly if their current military-technical cooperation with Russia continues to strengthen at its current rate.
To which you have to say that you have to start somewhere. 10 GBI’s in Poland will be enough in the near-mid term to cope with the kind of deployment schedule that Iran could be reasonably expected to field by itself. 10 GBI’s is also a number that impacts on the strategic balance in the region not a jot. IF Iran where suddenly to find they had access to the Russian ICBM/warhead catalogue and a line of credit then, sure, the Polish site would be swamped.
Might I just point out that as a Ground-based Mid-course Defence system, the proposed ‘missile shield’ has no capability to defend Europe. I have not seen one single piece of information about the system which claims this capability and it is designed around one use and one use only; the interception of an ICBM flying stright by overhead, destined for the continental United States from Iran. From Boeing’s own website:
Over Poland and before a missile coming out of Iran is in mid course if re-entering over western France, Netherlands. Belgium, UK, Ireland etc. OK its not all of Europe but there are five european countries that would be covered to some extent.
And given the Iranians need to not double, not triple but quintuple their current missile range to hit Washington the one threat it does counter will not exist for some years.
You may have missed the earlier comments on them developing a space-launch capability?. Not a colossal leap from orbital insertion to ICBM. What does it matter if the threat doesnt come to pass for years?. Is the Poland site operational right now?. Besides, with any luck, placing a counter system in theatre before the ICBM is developed may reduce Iranian interest in spending the money to develop it. GBI wins without firing a shot in that case.
Even if you somehow credit them with this performance in the timespan people are claiming then all they need to do is fire eleven missiles. If you assume they have the R&D programs in place to build a world-class ICBM then I think you should probably assume they can build a dozen of the things..
A dozen missiles require a dozen warheads. Warheads that have to be fabricated out of specific raw materials, processed over a sizeable period of time. A dozen armed missiles represents a significant investment. Perhaps you should take a quick look at the development of China’s full-up ICBM inventory and the numbers they field. 10 GBI’s represents a conservative estimate of the force that Iran could assemble over the rough life of the missiles on Polish soil.