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Jonesy

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  • in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054132
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Srbin,

    You are slightly missing the point here I fear. There has been no convincing news that I can find that the supersonic terminal phase version of Klub has entered service anywhere. The 3M54E1 variant has been delivered to the IN and tested with varying degrees of success, but, the -54E1 is the pure-subsonic antiship version of the weapon and quite a different beastie than -54E. The subsonic variant is still powerful but is, essentially, little more than a big, long ranged, Uran.

    Also, to be fair, comparing 3M-54E to Harpoon is a bit like comparing an Su-30 to an F-5E. The Russian aircraft is, obviously, superior BUT the US type was designed several decades ago, is much cheaper and not intended for the same mission!. Now if you want to compare 3M-54E to NSM, IMO, the Norweigan/European missile takes the prize every time.

    in reply to: aircraft carriers, the best leaving out America? #2682399
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Cat,

    Of course not GD …… u need to add that, it’s the only credible sea-based air wing outside the US when it has got the support of the USN carrier fleet. Hell even the Russians cud do much better than that given a 1 year finance is made available to them for at least a ‘trial check’ for that 1x K against 3 x I.

    The point he was making was quite accurate. The ONLY non-US fleet capable of no-notice year around naval-aviation deployment is the RN. The French may have a superior carrier in CdeG and a superior airgroup with the Hawkeyes and Rafales BUT its lonely. Carrier go technical and French Navy go home!. Same for the Russians apart from the fact theyve got a poorer airgroup! One carrier – no matter how big and shiny or how capable its airgroup does not make for a solid aviation capability.

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054167
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Well Roel I’m going by the SIPRI report on arms transfers to India which lists an order placed in 1998 for 96 missiles of which 38 were delivered by end ’02. The missiles SIPRI lists -> 3M-54E1

    I am very willing to be corrected here, but, as yet I’ve seen nothing open source to suggest 3M54E got past the technical difficulties it was suffering 2 years ago. Enquiries to a few old oppo’s has drawn an equivalent blank. Anyone who can point me towards news that 3M-54E (NOT 3M-54E1) has passed its acceptance trials I will be staggeringly impressed with!.

    Partially you are right, indeed with a Tupolev-only strike it wouldn’t succeed, but that wasn’t the idea either. As I have admitted before, you need all the assets. These Tupolevs would be augmented by, normally, 5 Oscars, that would still give you something to think about. Since your AD systems will be firing at all these “easy” targets, yet a 100 Granits will be flying on a lower path.

    Fair one, but, you are confirming my point. The original assertion here was that the Russians were ahead of the game on antiship missiles. I listed some of the operational drawbacks of some of the weapons that, IMO, disprove that view. Now you seem to be suggesting that missiles would have to be fired in such volumes as to occupy the target fleets full complement of director fire-channels.

    Tell me why the same feat couldnt be performed, oh so much cheaper and easier, by 50 Flankers carrying 4 Uran’s apiece instead of 100 thumping great Backfires firing 100 Kh-22’s and 5 thumping great SSGNs firing 100 Shipwrecks?. That is, in fact, if it is at all feasible to target that many weapons on a task force simultaneously (which I strongly doubt).

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054178
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sev,

    We’re getting at least 8 Type 45s according to the last Parliamentry report I read. More than enough for a comprehensive screen. Two of the APAR ships paired would present a SAM barrier that a dozen Kh-22’s (about a squadrons worth?) M variant or not would have a sincere problem penetrating. If you look at a coalition situation with an LCF, a Type124, an F100 and a couple of Arleigh’s just how many Tu-22s carrying a single Kh-22 (find a picture of the three missile Tu-22 config and its over its own field!) do you think you’ll have to send?.

    The point I’m making Roel is that the weapon has been countered and countered a long time ago.

    The Indian Navy has the Klub from their submarines, last two submarines were built with the system and now, I think, the two first Kilo class submarines have been fitted with the system too. Also the latest Chinese Navy Kilo class submarines have this system, I think the first two of these have been delivered to China very recently.
    Also, the Talwar frigates have the Klub 3M-54E variant for their VLS launchers.

    This was looked into a while ago and, last I recall, the 3M-54E1 was proven in IN service but no-one could find any evidence that the -54E was actually in operational service?

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054203
    Jonesy
    Participant

    All true Srbin but how many of them havent already been countered or are dependent on offboard targetting assets that are absolutely vital to the weapons usefulness?.

    the 300km high flying supersonic Yakhont, or 130km when going low

    As we’ve discussed on the Brahmos thread a powerful missile, but, hardly any new revolutionary capabilities. High altitude profile puts it in detection range of anything with a DA08 radar or better in plenty of time to initiate defensive measures. Low altitude profile only makes sense against advanced opposition and draws launching platform unpleasantly close to that opposition.

    the 250-300km low flying supersonic Moskit,

    LIGHT BULB datalink supporting Moskit operation is capable of guiding just a single missile at a time so salvo fire is a difficult proposition. Moskit whole raison d’etre for development of RAM, ESSM, Aster weapons systems.

    supersonic 100km high flying Kh-31A/AD/AM,

    A medium range supersonic diver. A profile that point defence missile systems have been designed to counter since Sea Wolf back in the 70’s.

    the 500 km supersonic Kh-22M,

    Modified version or not this is still the missile that AEGIS was designed to beat. Fast and powerful but still a big, fat target. Will require large volumes of missiles to break through a comprehensive AAW screen and how many nations have the capability to deploy that number of weapons?. Paper tiger.

    mach 5 aeroballistic 150km Kh-15P

    Get a Backfire/Blackjack to within 150km of a CVN to employ it!. What else warrants a nuclear warhead?. Paper tiger II.

    The only system Russia has, that poses a threat outside the scope of existing defensive systems, is the 3M-54E version of the Klub missile. This, if it works reliably, is a startlingly scary weapon. It is a complicated piece of kit though and I’d welcome any information regarding the service status, if achieved, of (specifically) the -54E version.

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054294
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sounds like a very reasonable summary to me!

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054299
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Steve, can you tell me which ship carries the NSM? Indeed, None up till now. Skjold is supposed to carry it and probably the Fridjorf Nansen too. Yet it’s not there yet, so in that case, the Russians are still ahead, cause most of their systems are active for almost a decade.

    NSMs now at the point where the technology is demonstrated. A test weapon recently flew 130km plus and guided successfully. Maybe its not in service but its certainly thereabouts and is a LOT more effective than anything the Russians, or anyone else, has. What other weapon can be deployed from trucks, ships/missile boats, helicopters or fixed wing aircraft with no targetting support required beyond an ESM bearing. What other weapon can simultaneously give any light escort capable of embarking an NH90-level chopper a standoff precision land-attack capability along with a Harpoon/Uran-ranged antiship capability on the same airframe?.

    Simply put in today’s threat environment many navies have to justify their funding by what their units can bring to the all arms battle ashore. The blue-water fleet on fleet engagement doesnt exist anywhere anymore. With the demise of that goes all the value of P-700 and all the other weapons of that kind as an unuseable weapon is a useless weapon. Without a US CVN to try and sink whats the point of a bloody great missile, however advanced, who’s only value is sinking US CVN’s?.

    [quote]As for Granit, If you shoot the hi-flyer, the second one fired goes up and switches on its radar. Takes command. The Attack just resumes, if the second one is shot, the third goes up etc. It is not clear how many missiles one can command, statements go from 1 command missile up for every 8 missiles to 1 command missile for 12 missiles… I suppose it might depend on the platform.[quote]

    The selection process will rely on the low altitude pack to miss a sequence of ‘keepalive’ signals from the command missile. This will take a set time interval and on top of this is the time interval for the promotion process of a second or third missile to take up the high slot. Given that this salvo is charging in at high supersonic speeds all the while if that initial missile is taken down just before terminal update is distributed then the salvo could be damn near over target by the time the secondary is in place!.

    They DO have that Kirov cruiser, soon a second one again too. And they DO have these Oscars.

    Are those Kirovs and Oscars any value to them now though?. What practical mission has a Kirov or Oscar performed in the last 10 years?. The Udaloys, Sovremenny’s, Akula’s and even the sole Neustrashimy have all deployed on defence diplomacy missions or joint exercises at least. The Oscars, Kirov’s and Slava’s may have kept those USN battlegroups away, but, seeings as they were never coming in the first place haven’t they been just a little bit useless this past decade?. Worse still havent they, the Kirov’s especially, drawn funding that could have been more practically used on other vessels or better infrastructure. Theres the legacy of P-500, P-700 and the rest – a few big ships that dont do anything but look pretty in text books and impress the uninitiated on internet forums!.

    Now, there are smaller supersonic weapons around, which do not have these features.

    If speed and range where enough to reliably get the job done Roel do you think that P-700 would carry ECM and armour?. If Granit needs such penetration aids what makes you think that Yakhont wouldnt?.

    For Jonesy on this point, it’s better to have multiple planes with a single missile, gives flexibility and allows to attack from three or more different directions, hence create some more trouble for the defenses.

    What happens if squadrons of strike fighters arent available solely for maritime strike, or, if they need to stage out and available tanker assets will only support a limited number of airframes? Multiple missiles on a single airframe is a much more efficient attack than single missiles on multiple airframes.

    I knew that, yet I’m not that sure wether the Russian sub won’t hear the slow mode either… You still have to open those torpedo hatches before a launch too.

    Torpedo doors and pressure equalisation would again, ideally, be actioned in the target baffles. There are few reasons that a captain would willingly give away his location by flooding tubes or cracking open tube doors right in front of a hostile contact. Either way the advantage goes to the boat with the sonar edge.

    As I already mentioned, gives more flexibility to your attack and of course, if you arm a plane with these subsonic missiles, like Harpoon or Exocet, you’ll have to close up to 130km (a bit closer if you want your missile to have some fuel left to increase its effectiveness in the hit), within the ranges of certain AD systems. If you carry one of these heavy long-range missiles, you can stay out of these systems’ ranges and get out with your planes.

    Like we discussed on the Brahmos thread. Range for a Yakhont type weapon on lo-lo profile is also about 130km. There is a range advantage only if you choose a high midcourse approach for the supersonic weapon. That high midcourse giving the defender a much easier time detecting the inbound.

    in reply to: Russian attack capabilities #2054360
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sea ram can fire about 1 missile every 2 to 3 secs and there is no saying how many targets it can engage because its fire and forget system. So in other words when sea ram launcher points and fire 2 to 3 missiles against 3 targets all 3 missiles might just end intercepting the first target.

    Even if you were right Jon what this means is that a saturation subsonic skimmer attack is more likely to defeat a RAM-equipped ship than a couple of heavy supersonics. Two strike fighters carrying four subsonics apiece would be more likely to be successful, against such a target, than if they were carrying single heavies.

    Thats the problem with fire forget SAM systems.

    Not so quick to write them off. Active radar SAMs are every bit as fire-and-forget. Theyre launched on a specific target track and can discriminate just fine. RAM is the same in Sea RAM or Mk49 variant – it is cued by onboard/onmount sensors onto a specific target track. IF there are multiple target tracks very close together missiles can crosslock certainly, but, they do have to be in very close proximity. The RN trialled SeaRAM on HMS York for a year and they came back with very positive views on the system.

    Sev,

    Granit never comes alone. And as I said, I think this little RAM won’t take the Granit out… It might damage its systems in the best case, and hopefully for the defender, these systems will be the guidance systems. Otherwise it’ll just go straight through

    P-700 is able to perform all these wonders simply by virtue of its size. If a smaller supersonic weapon were able to penetrate naval defences do you think the Russians would have incorporated all the penetration-aids they have on Granit?.

    P-700’s size also limits it as an efficient weapons system. Whats the point of having some of these, very powerful, weapons if you dont have a Kirov or OscarII to fire them. Whats the point of having these weapons if your ISTAR capability doesnt allow for positive targetting control at x00kms standoff distance. Lastly these are big expensive weapons what is the smallest target thats worth a Granit attack? A 4000 ton escort?. A 9000ton AEGIS destroyer? Granits’ buddy-designation attack profile is very clever, but, what happens if the hi-profile missile is taken down prior to terminal-phase designation and the remainder of the group miss or hit ‘low-value’ targets due to the lack of update?. If you’re only starting the engagement with 20 P-700’s in your inventory a wasted salvo diminishes your chances of acheiving your strategic and tactical aims.

    This is not to dispute the fact that the Russians have some powerful antiship missiles, but, it illustrates that, to get those advantages, they have had to make sacrifices in operational practicality terms. The missiles are dangerous, but, only in certain operational conditions.

    When a US sub fires a torpedo, it will almost be certain that this will be a wire guided one. Russians can hear this torpedo. If they do this, they just fire a Shkval in the direction of that torpedo.

    Not that simple. The launch transient, if the SSN skipper is any good, can be screened in the targets baffles. Mk48’s, like most current-generation HWTs, can be fired on low speed settings and steered off course to attack a target on a dogleg bearing to that of the launching sub. Firing a Shvkal down an inbound bearing is not necessarily a good ‘revenge’ attack. More likely is that the Russian might try an active sweep and a snapshot before attempting evasion and so employ the weapon on a confirmed target. Even that is dicey though as an active sweep would tipoff the attacking SSN skipper that a weapon might be about to be heading back at him.

    Srbin,

    When it comes to Anti-Shipping missiles, the Russians are just way ahead, the best West can offer is the subsonic Harpoons and Exocets,

    Not a chance. The Norweigans have this down with Kongsberg and the NSM. Deployable, long ranged, flexible and capable of operation without heavy offboard targetting support. Not capable of sinking a super-carrier, perhaps, but a) what conventional-warhead missile is so capable and b) who’s got the military capability to take on the USN to need such a capability!?.

    in reply to: aircraft carriers, the best leaving out America? #2619231
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Political question there Sean. When the contracts were awarded BAe put a gun to the Treasury’s head and managed to get prime contractor status bulding the Thales design!. Crazy but true.

    Almost immediately they set to work modifying Thales’ design to their own ideas ramping the price up. MoD went on a witch hunt after the Astute SSN and Nimrod MRA4 debacles and so BAe went back to the gun-to-the-head routine threatening massive redundancies at several UK yards. MoD werent having any of it this time though and stripped them of their prime contractor status. The Project Integration, between BAe and Thales, is now being pulled back in house to the MoD Defence Procurement Agency with a private company, still to be named after Northrop-Grumman backed out, acting in a consultancy role.

    This is the very much abbreviated version of course. The full story plays out here: http://navy-matters.beedall.com/cvf1-1.htm

    in reply to: aircraft carriers, the best leaving out America? #2619272
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Glitter last I heard was that Thales were offering the basic hull and deck layout of CVF as the foundation of PA2. The image attached below seems to indicate that, apart from a switch to a single island, CTOL operations gear and, obviously, nationally-sourced primary systems that the designs are very close. Thales may deny this now, thanks to the DCN linkup, but you can bet that the French Defence Ministry are rolling around laughing at the stupid rosbifs for picking up the tab for all the hull design and risk-reduction work.

    As to the CVF the design was frozen at 80% complete back in April. The design is set to move through its maingate phase in a few months. Changes can still be made after this but not overly substantive ones.

    in reply to: aircraft carriers, the best leaving out America? #2619314
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sean,

    Yep Indians right the French Porte Avions 2 is a CTOL adaptation of the Thales CVF design. There are some pictures of the proposed design on the Royal Navy board over at warships1.

    As for everything else Golden Dragons’ written everything I would – but with much better illustrations. I never would have gotten in with that Pinyata line – excellent stuff! 😀

    in reply to: General Discussion #422682
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Red sky at night…….oil refinery’s on fire.

    in reply to: China might get Ukrainian Slava class cruiser #2067775
    Jonesy
    Participant

    And even if this is not the case, they can buy spares from Ukraine or manufactur their own parts.

    A unique spares chain, for those systems already in the 95% built hull, is an expense that smart navies avoid. Be that relying on the manufacturing country to be able to maintain low-volume spares fabrication facilities at a sensible price or setting up the same facilities yourself. Either way its an expensive solution and an unreliable one.

    Our Navy operates ships with engines that have no spares anymore. Not in the entire world. They just produce their own parts onboard the ship if small and ashore if large.

    The RN do their own manufacturing too, and take a pride in churning-out higher quality parts than the factory made items. This tends to just be for make-and-mends when deployed though. As an illustration Invincible once shed a cog in one of its main gearboxes at quite an innopportune moment. Fortunately, as three hulls were built/building, decent spares holdings were assembled and a new gearbox could be shipped and installed (a major job required cutting through three decks to get the old unit out and the new one in). If the ship had had to wait while a new gearbox was fabricated it may well have missed the Falklands War with the consequences of that potentially being extreme!.

    Generator sets and osmosis water plants are all changeable if you want to do that. It’s not even military, they can order them from a commercial company with the next overhaul or refit.

    Again thats a very expensive solution Roel. Especially for the capabilty you get from this hull. If there was no other AAW solution in the PLAN there would be a reasonable case for accepting the extra costs just to get the capability, in part the Indian ‘defence’ for Gorshkov goes along these lines, the PLAN though do have AAW ships, embarking SAMs if not AShM’s, so the Slava looks more like the ‘luxury’ item and less like an operationally required unit to me!.

    in reply to: Iowa vs Yamato..who wins? #2067804
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Doubt it Wowcow!. Fantastically destructive as those big antiship missiles are we’re talking about vessels that were desiged to absorb poundings from 16″ shells here. Going from memory Bismark took over 300 16″ shells and multiple 21″ torpedo hits before she finally sank.

    One or two conventional Kh-22, P500 or P700 type weapons would hurt a WW2 BB thats for sure, BUT, unless they caught a mag by pure dumb luck, they wouldnt affect its watertight integrity one bit. With each turret being capable of independant action there is little chance that a couple of hits would mission-kill the BB either.

    Like the old saying goes – they dont build ’em like that anymore!

    in reply to: China might get Ukrainian Slava class cruiser #2067810
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sev,

    Its not really the weapons themselves I’m thinking of here as, naturally, you’re quite right about the naval artillery and S-300’s etc. What I was more thinking of was generator sets, osmosis plants and all those sorts of systems. A big ship means lots of ancilliary systems and it will be a little late in the day for the Chinese to try and introduce their own systems in the vessel!.

    I was aware that Bazalt wouldnt be transferrable, in this case though, I dont think that its a serious issue. PLAN doesnt posses the ISR assets to support P-500 targetting anyway!.

    The fact that they do have the S300F, is probably an indication that they will build a ship for it. Couldn’t it be based on Slava? I think that’s what JonS meant, they need a hullshape to fit this system in. It’s not just tonnage that allows a certain system.

    The Russians have a corvette design thats mounting an S300 VLS and TOMB STONE array so I can imagine little issue with the Chinese mounting the system on a 7000 ton 052 hull. TOMB STONE would be an easier fit than a TOP DOME on that sized hull but it would be a great deal easier to modify the superstructure of the existing 052C design than design a new hull from scratch or try and adapt a thumping great hull like a Slava then build a run of them.

    Hydropod,

    Deploy the RIF system? There is no indication what so ever that RIF will be used on PLAN ships to this date. The rumoured 051C is just that, a rumour. Seems PLA is very happy with HQ-9 at least, PLAN’s view on HHQ-9 as of yet is to be seen.

    The only reason to even look at the Slava would seem, to me, to be some systemic failure of the new Area-AAW system aboard the 052C’s. I’d agree that that doesnt seem likely as, afaik, the 170 vessel has already been commissioned into the PLAN and is operational?. Hard to see why they would commission a vessel who’s primary combat system was marginal!.

Viewing 15 posts - 3,781 through 3,795 (of 4,319 total)