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Jonesy

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  • in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2182452
    Jonesy
    Participant

    UAV relay chain, laser line of sight.

    Back to using blinker-lights in the 21st century….who’d have thunk it!. Granted the light is a bit different and the blinking is a touch faster than a human could ever encode morse but still…….:)

    Problem with this, as you know, is the atmosphere. Whats the reliable range on milspec freespace optical now?. I’ve looked at this for connecting up a couple of buildings over a campus site in my professional role but was massively put off by performance degradation in the rain and an unfortunate reaction to vibration of the transceiver assemblies (train line along one side of the site). Not sure the chain you’re suggesting would be quite on the scale Sanem is hoping for.

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2182642
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Yep thats the chap. Sanem here appears to be a believer 🙂

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2182651
    Jonesy
    Participant

    if you say so

    2004

    http://www.boeingimages.com/Docs/BOE/Media/TR6_WATERMARKED/a/a/7/9/BI46901.jpg

    2009

    http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/dangerroom/2011/12/e7c61_rq170-525-1.jpg

    2016?

    OK Sanem this is a pretty good example of ‘Plummer Syndrome’. That is the inability to grasp that the super-cool-robot-wonder-system isnt a solution all on its own and, in fact, needs to exist in the real world within the structures evolved to meet capability requirements. Lets try and give you a couple of examples:

    1, Non-segregated airspace. Perhaps mitigated by collision-avoidance systems, but, not everywhere thusly limiting operational deployment. That and one bad line of code and a bit of bad luck and the first collision with a civvy airliner and UAVs are segregated-only everywhere. Have the most advanced AI you like…it wont make one whit of difference.

    2, Technology transfer. Back in the bad old days bits of foreign kit were pilfered at any opportunity. Other peoples sonobuoys being fished out of the water during opposition exercise serials happened. Drones being GPS-dragged and captured has happened.

    Can you imagine how vulnerable something like the US Navys ASW tattletale drone USV is going to be?. Give it a target to chase and lead it into a cluttered environment for meeting with a couple of, previously-innocent-looking, civvy salvage vessels. Yoink…and thank you USN for advancing the technology level of any number of countries two or three steps overnight!.

    Two quick examples of how policy and procedure, as well as the tactical/strategic environment, has to be there alongside the technical wizardry. Take them away and the cleverest kit is utterly useless.

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2182748
    Jonesy
    Participant

    hahaha
    Leonardo da Vinci’s work was fictional. he was a genius that was limited by the technology of his time
    Fuller and Liddell Hart’s work was fictional, when they conceptualised what later became Blitzkrieg tactics. the technology was there, but no one was willing to try it.

    the technology Plummer is proposing is achievable today, has already been created, or will be created soon while the tactics he is proposing will be effective and feasable in essence Plummer has invented the new tank and the Blitzkrieg tactics to go with them most people will fail to understand this, and think of such idea’s as absurd and delusional
    but then most people are complete idiots

    I can only say to that Sanem that your point about DaVinci is on the money. He may have drawn a helicopter but the delivery was a very long time off. Had he made a comment about the viability of rotary wing flight in his era the ridicule he would’ve taken would have been more than justified.

    This is the same situation here. The conceptual technology alone is not enough. It has to fit into the real operational world, and you must accept that’s a long way from realised for many of these automated systems. Technoporn is great. Just realise that there is a lot more to deploying a capability than the clever box of tricks. Kurt misses that…over and over again.

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2182792
    Jonesy
    Participant

    thanks for the name and the background, that’s appreciated 😉
    I don’t understand most of what he’s saying to be honest
    but Plummer is in my view, for all the faults he may have, the most visionary author out there in the field of air power and many other military fields too btw

    You can imagine the boy speaks like Yoda in real life! 😎

    “Hmmm unmanned your plane must be….or pilots….hmmm….bounce off the ships they will!”.

    Seriously I tried to see the positives for years, he is a clever guy, he’s also a great place to pick up the new acronyms. Then one day I was discussing sea denial operations with him and he started coming out with all sorts of random nonsense about sea mines shooting Harpoon missiles and floating sensor buoys 500km offshore. It was then you realised that the grasp on reality was just a little shaky and he’s off into near-scifi while everyone else is talking doctrine, logistics and deployability.

    If you want a Dale Brown script at any point. Find him!. He’ll give you material for an unbelievable technothriller…with many drones…just keep in mind its all purely fictional!.

    in reply to: UK requests sale of 9 P-8A for $3.2 billion #2183034
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Not sure if I should post this in the naval thread… on the other hand, they’ll be operated by the RAF so here goes –

    DSCA: United Kingdom – P-8A Aircraft and Associated Support

    3bn for 9 aircraft…up to 9 that is. So the price of a couple of Astutes for the ability to generate a hunting pair of airframes on a single contact round the clock

    This is at a time when the navy is told to shift to a downgrade light frigate as T26 in numbers would be too costly?.

    The mind can but boggle.

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2183282
    Jonesy
    Participant

    With respect to a 1000 NM A2AD zone offshore, there is a distinct difference between not technically feasible and no political will.

    For ‘no political will’ I’d substitute ‘practically deliverable’. No one is close. Nor ever has been.

    in reply to: A2A UCAV by LEG #2183367
    Jonesy
    Participant

    http://aviationweek.com/defense/manufacturing-tech-key-driving-down-f-35-costs

    The problem there Sanem is you’re quoting another iteration of the venerable Kurt Plummer. Kurt’s writings are well known in the world of the internet defence forum and have been for more than a decade. He starts quite sane and knows all the acronyms which makes him compelling reading. His writing style is quite difficult to penetrate leading to the view that if you just read it again you’ll divine more wisdom and insight.

    Unfortunately when you start to call him out on his diatribes they unravel quite quickly. In the piece above virtually his entire house of cards is predicated on a couple of ‘IFs’ in point 2:

    – ‘If your carrier is 1,000nm offshore due to ICD threats and your target has another 1,000nm of backfield’

    Is there a proven ICD threat pushing anyones carrier back 1000nm offshore?. No. Is there a nation on earth that has reliable surveillance overwater to a depth of 1000nm?. No. Is anyone near to having that depth of maritime surveillance?. No. Is there an ISTAR asset organic to the carrier airwing that can place sustained and survivable sensor coverage at 1000nm from the group overland or overwater?. No. Is it a meaningful statement to denigrate a carrier platform if it cant strike 1000 miles inland from a position 1000 miles offshore?. No.

    Kurt is a technojunky with no concept of operational realities. He usually gets the hump when his vapourware ramblings get questioned and, ultimately, ridiculed. He then leaves the site and is spotted elsewhere some months later with a new posting identity and identical writing style!. He’s not very quotable to support a serious point.

    in reply to: INS Vikramaditya: Steaming towards Induction #2016117
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Hi Jonesy … the SHARs are done for … they flew off the deck of the Viraat for the very last time a few days back and landed in Goa. Its just too difficult and risky to operate them now primarily because of the lack of spares.

    Does surprise me to hear that. I understood that a modest life extension went in with the Elta/BVRAAM upgrade work?. Clearly they are old cabs now though so, sad to see from a romantic perspective, but of course quite understandable.

    Here is Viraat … cruising at 21 knots … on her way back to Mumbai … probably the last pic we will see with SHARs onboard …

    I saw these when you posted them first Vishnu and I wanted to say something then but everything I put down seemed unintentionally condescending in some way….so I’ll just say that its clear from her state there, in the sunshine, that the old girl went to the right place, and to the right people, to give her last years of service.

    There was a very unfortunate tragedy at the end of the day shortly after the Viraat docked at Goa – there was a fire in her boiler room as they were shutting down her engines … a sailor was killed because of smoke inhalation …

    Boilers are always trouble. Deeply sad to hear of the loss in what should be a fairly routine evolution. I know we were glad to see the back of large steam plants in the surface fleet when the Fearless class passed into history.

    in reply to: INS Vikramaditya: Steaming towards Induction #2016148
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Aparently because the STOBAR arrestors might have interfered with a typical Sea Harrier deck VL,my guess.But anyway they are out for good.

    You’d run a STOVL flying programme with VL’s into spots 2 or 3. When you can pick the spot you want to land on you pick one as close to midships as possible, at the centre of pitch, as its the part of the ship thats jumping up and down the least. It would also be well forward of the arrestor wires.

    I’d assume that, in an emergency, there would be very little difficulty in integrating SHAR STOVL ops into the ships flying programme. I’d also assume that the peacetime IN, sensibly, doesnt want to borrow the trouble of operating two very disparate types of fastjet on one space-constrained carrier without an absolute necessity to do so.

    in reply to: Navies news from around the world -V #2016194
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Trident Is Vulnerable

    Seldom have I seen such a large volume of nonsense condensed into such a short article.

    in reply to: World Missiles News #1787210
    Jonesy
    Participant

    This seems like a) a utter waste of equipment and money b) sabre rattling c) one of those stories that is just there to impress the domestic market.

    Not so sure its a necessity to test full salvo capability actually shooting real missiles, but, it is a valid test to ensure that you have sufficient resources aboard for the salvo launch of the entire inventory and that there are no adverse affects on ship-handling from moving that much mass quickly offboard. Theroretically neither factor is especially challenging and neither should be a problem but there is value in a real test to prove out the theory. Likely it’ll be the only time a Borey does it….makes sense to get a photo-op out of it as well if you’re going to!. Bulava could use a little good press as well given its somewhat-chequered track record!.

    in reply to: Norwegian Instructor Lies about F-35 BFM Performance #2191283
    Jonesy
    Participant

    It hurts me to be the one who has to say this to you… but nobody’s except you is laughing..

    ah…but is there a video to prove that?

    :highly_amused:

    in reply to: Russian Navy Thread 2. #2016408
    Jonesy
    Participant

    I’m unsure why you are trying to bring context to something that is by definition an arbitrary comparison Rii?. Yes the oceans are very big…..it aids scaling comparison between the force structures being commented on not a bit to note that though.

    The question raised here was whether the Russian SSN fleet….into the middle distance future would be comparable or superior to the RN one of the same timeframe. That is not a question that bears any relation to the one of long-range antiship engagement that so often fails to incorporate acknowledgement of the kill-chain. On this topic we are talking about direct like-for-like comparison between equivalent platforms from the real-world start position of today. Factors such as how a combat sequence would start, where it would occur, what offboard assets would be present, what the level of beligerence each political leader may have in their heart….etc….etc are all irrelevent.

    The issues are technical and tactically operational in nature. My contention is that the service with the qualitative edge and the most time on type has the advantage in systems and operator competency…..as a general rule. That includes over a service with a larger number of less-capable hulls. After all, if there is no countering ASW presence, the most elementary diesel patrol submarine would run amok amongst a target set….that statement doesnt introduce anything of value in a relative comparison does it?.

    in reply to: Russian Navy Thread 2. #2016434
    Jonesy
    Participant

    It may have been carefully worded, or it may have been a more casual statement that, when examined from just the right angle, makes some kind of sense (as more than mere hyperbole to scare up additional funds for USN). And then of course there are other angles from which it deserves at least a raised eyebrow……. Really? Numbers do matter, and the Russians should have little difficulty fielding (and, crucially, operating) enough nuclear boats by 2025 (at the very latest) to more than offset any qualitative advantage the RN may have.

    If its a casual comment it marks the Admiral as someone with a good grasp of his subject in my view!.

    Numbers matter from the standpoint of capability generation only. This is one of those issues where ‘just send out anything’ wont really do the job. Astute, anecdotally, can hold a US Virginia class from hitherto unseen ranges. A 671 or early 971 would not be anticipated, today, to offer the same discretion rate as a Virginia. So the question is ‘does a greater number of ageing and variably updated hulls equal a smaller number of contemporary hulls’. If they dont then the additional hulls dont contribute to an effective mission capability…..they are targets being set up on the range.

    As TR1 notes the Russian Navy seems to have been the services whipping boy in terms of acquisitions for some time. The new 885 hulls hit design freeze in the very early 90’s for a first of class laid down date in 93….Astute wasnt ordered until 97 and didnt hit the build hall until the start of 2001. Essentially the ‘new’ 885 is already a generation off the pace and, I understand, has a modernized version under development at present.

    The upshot of this is that Russian crews are deploying in less competetive hulls while the service plays catch up from its enforced stagnation. Crewing the older hulls and maintaining proficiency on legacy systems keeps them on the field, but, means that when the new hulls come into commission they’ll then have to start working up on the newer systems and capabilities the hulls deliver. All the while, taking us as example of a competitor, we have the 3rd Astute coming into commission next month and the remaining 4 either in build or funding allocated. All to a settled, successful, design and with a defined training plan and experienced crews to spread through the fleet. By 2025 we’ll have Ajax just commissioned and a single-class fleet of 7 boats. I cant see how the Russian Navy could get from where they are now to a better position than we’ll be in between now and then.

Viewing 15 posts - 436 through 450 (of 4,319 total)