…are acquiring 50+ undergunned next to useless LCS…
Wasn’t that almost word-for-word the criticism of the Spruance’s back in the day….funny how history repeats itself!.
Sorry but … what’s the point of all this ?
I don’t think that Sri Lanka plans on invading anyone. As for defending itself … Against who ? The Maldives and its Twin Otters? India is an ally as far as I know (and even if it wasn’t the case, Sri Lanka wouldn’t hold a chance. )
I think that there are far more pressing issues in the country infrastructure wise, than reequipping a combat air force that has no opponent.
Possibly there is an element of usefulness for the military here Frank and I think Swerve has pretty much nailed it already.
Sri Lanka’s position is an interesting one. As you note it has few external threats and its not likely India would tolerate an aggressive state taking up a strategic position just off its coast on Sri Lanka…regardless of their interest or apathy towards Sri Lankan autonomy. You cant imagine that the US would allow a powerful aggressor to invade and subjugate Cuba on the same principle.
Where the interest in the military does become a valid issue though is with the direction Sri Lanka wants to push its economy in order to maintain its growth. Part of this is to leverage its geographical location to become a sea/air cargo hub. Clearly providing secure, patrolled, waters for merchant traffic to transit is going to be advantageous to the development of that trade. I see no real need for fastjets over what they have, as an economy measure they could probably de-establish some even, but enhanced maritime patrol assets allied to a few newer OPVs could certainly be valuable assets nationally.
Myself I think I’d find India’s interest in the Japanese US-2 amphibian tantalising from a potential joint acquisition/support standpoint. Certainly 3 or 4 of these configured for patrol/SAR would be useful. Cueing for these being provided by a Heron/Eitan UAV patrol station to the west and another to the east of the island, from a long term acquisition, configured for comms relay and marpat. Certainly, for advertising Sri Lanka as a trading centre, being able to point towards 24hr surveillance in depth of the EEZ backed up by rapid reaction, on water, assistance is going to go down well with ship owners and insurance companies etc.
Falklands War admiral Sandy Woodward dies aged 81
Rest easy sundodger….job done.
Some ships that could meet this thinking for Asian market
PKG class patrol vessel cost $38mn length 62 m speed 41kn armament 1 76mm gun 4 anti ship missiles
Frassmar OPV 80 cost $38mn length 80m speed 25kn armament 1 40mm gun
Both allow 25 ships for about $1bn and offer good flexibility
The PKG is not a coastguard hull. The Fassmer is but there are a few options. Me, for a low end patroller, I’d go with the below at $22mn a go modified with a medium cal forward mount and a couple of 50 cals:
How useful are these canons? I understand the cost and sustainable fire arguments but isn’t the range too limited to do anything useful other than coastal bombardment?
Also wouldn’t a sea based Advanced MRLS be better for these ships? With less of a kick? Wait weren’t they thinking of putting them on the ddg1000 in the early stages?
Story from the German Navy, who did quite a bit with Naval MLRS for F125, was that the rocket efflux from the MLRS rounds proved highly corrosive and, consequently, was not viable for ship deployment within justifiable cost limits. For the task of making unhardened targets like radar/comms nodes, AA sites, truck-mount AShM’s and the suchlike go away a quick 5-shot pattern from an OTO127 or similar should be up to the task. If the target is hardened and, therefore, strategic thats where you lay off a bit farther and hit with TLAM or MdCN from a nice safe spot!.
I gather from the above discussion that the main challenge is to identify the target – when the missile is fired from long distance.
– How does the China’s “carrier-killer” missile works then?
– Also is it possible to track/identify the target from space, especially given that ships have huge sizes and move very slowly? Can drones be used for this purpose also.
– What is a reasonable range for naval missiles in today’s state-of-the-art?
All depends on the scenario. Harpoon was originally intended to engage surfaced Soviet SSGN’s from practical sensor ranges to pick such vessels from an MPA’s search set. In the middle of the Atlantic, with merchie traffic nicely herded into convoys for Reforger, shooting at maximum range…hopefully before the SSGN could finish setting up its missile shots or crash dive…was perfectly feasible. There was, after all, naff all else to hit.
In isolated, untrafficked, waters then a pattern of 5 ships in formation with a constant heading and rate of advance might be a viable target for a maximum range missile shot. This was the premise that led to OUTLAW HUNTER/TASM and Legenda/Uspekh plus P500/P700. Both US and Soviet-era long-range missiles had some rather spectacular fails on testing when the missiles unxepectedly locked up random vessels entering the target area. Case in point an E-2 detonated a rogue TASM heading for the UNREP ship coming out to RAS the USN group testing the weapon!. In the Russian case the ‘famous’ one was the Vereshchagino incident in the Black Sea when a P-35 decided it liked the errant trawler more than its intended target…with the below result:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_Vereshchagino
Thats the sort of thing that can happen with basic active-radar homing (ARH) seekers. So if you look at the AIS capture below taken earlier today from the rough Hormuz area imagine whether or not a brace of whichever circa 200km ARH missiles, fired from say Bandar Lengeh, is going to stand a great chance at hitting the fast ship contact circled. In that context it doesnt matter what the range…you need positive ID of the contact and, pretty much, to eyeball the missile all the way in. Whether youre firing a 30km weapon or a 300km one…in the congested environment you are going to fire at about 20km.
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Indeed part of the reason Argentine air attack was such a threat was because the Royal navy EW / ESM systems did not identify exocet as hostile.
Not the case Lindemyer. The Exocet seeker was fully profiled and had the codeword ‘HANDBRAKE’ assigned. A ‘HANDBRAKE’ call would, and did, cause much activity to happen in the assembled fleet!. The Aeronavale training allowed us to profile the Agave radar….which, if memory serves, gained the codeword ‘CONDOR’. A call declaring ‘CONDOR racket’ on a given bearing was therefore a detect of an Etendards Agave emissions. Both were well trained out to the warfare teams.
France helped out with info on exocet, as well as withholding already purchased more exocet missiles,
while US helped out with intelligence in general.
There is no reason to believe they won’t do it again.
This reason alone is enough to stay far away from western hardware
France didnt help out with information on Exocet…we already had MM38 in the fleet as GWS.50 anyway so we knew all about the seeker etc. They allowed the Aeronavale to exercise with the RN so we could work up a profile on an Etendard/AM39 attack. It was immensely valuable to us but not something you could have laid blame for at the manufacturers door…either Dassault or Aerospatiale!. Stopping arms supplies to a state actually conducting hostilities is not an uncommon step for a government to take…and not just Western ones.
It should be noted that the Aerospatiale engineering team who were integrating AM39 with Argentina’s new Etendards went to some lengths to make sure that their Argentine counterparts were able to complete the work, and deploy the capability, before they came away.
An attack on a fully alert and reinforced island with UK subs all over is not viable.
Viable?. Of course it is….given significant resources and a bit of technical support its entirely possible to get the job done. The Falklands, after all, are an isolated group of islands short on every natural resource bar penguins. The reinforcement/resupply of those islands is absolutely contingent on the availability of runways able to support RAF C-17’s. Deny those to the British and isolate the islands long enough to get a foothold and you’re most of the way there…pretty much regardless of what is sat on the island.
Possible in the real world it isnt….but thats not the same thing….this is solely a tactical exercise!.
While I love the Klub-K missiles, the next solution is a 24 Mirage F1 buy uptated to ASTRAC standard with AASM & Mica. An attack by, say 8-12 of them with 4 AASM each would pretty much allow the obliteration of MPA. They can be refueled by other Mirages or by offshore based super étendards to extend their range enough.
A 24 Mirage F1 build up wouldn’t be too alarming because the Argies need some new fighters if only for air policing.
Nic
So is this some sort of ‘bolt out of the blue’ strike Nic?. Just one day the FAA generates 12 aircraft with a 4 AASM loadout and sends them off to flatten MPA?.
If we leave aside the fact that the F1M pilots would need to be worked up for things like AAR and long-range overwater navigation….things that might be identifiable if observed…there is the question as to what effect flattening MPA, in the event the Mirages could blow past the Typhoon det, in isolation would have?. Any lengthy delay, post strike, will allow for the airfield to be brought back in to operation probably while the reinforcing fighter squadron would already be airborne and en route from the UK!.
The follow up Argentine exploitation force, post strike, then has to be on the ground before the British can start to put MPA back together again. That means airborne forces holding just outside of British radar range until the first bomb bursts…so give or take 90 mins out…or it means an amphibious ship 15nm offshore with a gaggle of loaded LCM’s….or both. Perhaps MI6 might not catch the Mirage F1’s working up for their sneaky-squirrel attack but, as covered so many times on this thread, the follow-on forces should be a bit of a giveaway that something was coming.
A surprise strike is not really high percentage for the Argentines no matter what. The viable attack plan needs to be able to tackle a reinforced, fully alert, defending force.
BATISMAR is an OPV, i.e. a coast guard vessel. Small and cheap, since ~15 hulls are needed. Most similar to the defunct C3 concept, sized to carry a helicopter but without a combat role.
This new FTI (“Mid-sized frigate”) on the other hand does have a combat role. It’s better defended and has a much larger payload than an OPV, so that it can come close inshore to project power and deal with assymetric threats. So sort of like a European take on LCS. It will incorporate mixed civil-military construction standards – not clear how far they will go in terms of cost cutting.
The obvious assumption is that other assets will take care of enemy aircraft & submarines… assuming these even exist and that they are operational (not all that likely – in recent conflicts, the enemy’s high-end conventional weapons have rarely been more than paper tigers – it’s the assymetric threats that have have everyone worried).
Yep I got that idea re BATISMAR but it seems to have gone very quiet recently…I was wondering if it had been re-evaluated as a concept?. Has a design been down selected yet?. As I understood it BATISMAR was the eventual replacement for the Floreal’s…looks to me that the Floreal is a better foundation for BATISMAR than, at least, the CNM concept!.
Yes, among other things.
Seems like a trend among some designers these days, i.e. away from “short, fat” hull designs (which are very volumetrically efficient) and back to longer waterlines… The wavepiercing bow reduces pitching, improves efficiency in waves and at high speeds, and is stealthier. Probably more complex structurally, but that’s what computers are for!
Is there any relevance to BATISMAR in this French concept H_K?. Last I saw of that was a 79m CMN design that looked a little modest for Biscay on an angry day?!.
It was just an illustration to show how many of those quatruple launchers you could fit on a container carrier.
Say you fit 6 containers on 3 or 4 ships and you’re capable of launching 72 to 96 missiles + say about 48 from 4 improved Kilos for a total of up to 144 missiles. I doubt the Falkland’s defenses could counter such a number of missiles targeted at such a low number of targets.
The 4 Kilos then sail at full speed towards Argentina to get rearmed with their anti submarine loadout and take on the defense of Argentina, and say another 3-4 come with their anti shipping loadout to take on the defense of the Falklands and harrass the invasion force.
You add 24-36 Su27 type aircrafts to defend the mainland & 12 you station on the Falklands to escort your R/P99s. The range of the Su 27 allows to use mainland based fighters to reinforce the island based ones if need be.
Nic
Again Nic its not quite that easy. As Swerve says there aren’t all that many merchantmen around the Falklands generally. There arent many reasons for 3 or 4 Argentinian-flagged container ships to be converging on the Islands to within 3M14 range…other than to close to within 3M14 range….and any that do, in times of exaggerated threat, will have some form of overwatch especially if word gets out that Klub-K is in the mix. All it would take is a scope sighting of the container roof elevating and a pair of Spearfish would do the rest.
Your Improved Kilo’s would also be subject to routine attention from A-class SSN’s….which would be built in greater numbers than planned today. Four SSK’s storing for sea and sortieing in a short duration window would also be taken as a strategic indicator and again these will come up against a submarine service that is the match of any on the planet. The Kilo’s are solid boats, but, they are still SSK’s and have all the inherent limitations of the type when they arent tooling along a couple of knots over steerage on batteries….which they cant do on transit.
Lastly I think your proposition of JAS39, Mica & so on is unrealistic, because those material wouldn’t be sold to Argentina, and even if they were, they would be seriously compromised by their origin.
To be honest I thought the 60 odd high-end Chinese SRBM’s was a bit more unrealistic….largely as I dont think China would actually abrogate MTCR to supply them!. I did note that I was using artistic license at that point! :).
I do take your point of course. I mentioned second-hand Gripen as a way of getting around build lead times etc, cannibalisation can cover much ground in supportability terms and the first time round Argentina was shooting Roland, Tigercat, Blowpipe and plenty of 35mm Oerlikon not to mention AM39 and MM38 at us. All the Argentinians would need to do, as well, would be to hold the islands for long enough for it to become a fait accompli and for the UK to lose interest. How long would the RN keep SSN’s down there sinking ships with limited real hope of putting in a successful landing operation without a massive force buildup of its own….requiring years to complete. 18 months….24?. Blink of an eye compared to the historical timeframes involved. Once the new paradigm was established and Argentinian firms could exploit mineral wealth I’d imagine even BAE would have a crack at selling to them!.
The Italian armed forces are purchasing 10 Hammerhead aircraft. The article doesn’t mention the cost of the aircraft, but the Avanti civilian aircraft, on which it is based, from the wiki page costs US$7M. In other words not only does the Hammerhead promise to be technically unbeatable on many fronts (and for the UK with extra industrial benefits through Selex ES UK), but it may prove to be by far the most economical solution, allowing for formation flying – as is done with LEO satellites, interferometry, etc.
…or we go with the KingAir 350ER marpat that is already developed, that the RAF and RN both use in other roles, have an established support/logistics train for and actually train multiengine pilots on currently!. Dont think the Piaggio is going to beat that for economy to be honest!
Obviously you would have to be attacking the airbase & air defenses prior to/while landing your commandos and dropping your paratroops. That goes without saying. The hardest part of it is to keep the island, which is what my post focused on.
This is where the Kilo subs come in handy. Before doing the coastal defense agaisnt british SSNs and surface shipping, they can launch a saturation attack of the british airbase and air defenses with 3M-14E klub missiles. Then you quickly rearm them with 3M-54E1 and a few 91RE1 for mainland and falklands defense.
The RN would have to spend a leg and an arm to defend against an hypothetical argie invasion using klub equipped Kilos.
You could also purchase a number of klub-K missiles to fire from merchant vessels which could be on their way to land the bulk of the occupation forces.
Nic
Not really Nic. The Kilo’s loadout will be perhaps a dozen weapons to keep a minimum torpedo onload and the land attack Klub variant is a conventional cruise profile weapon. In event of escalated threat level and a submarine cruise threat it would be quite conceivable that, in this timeframe, FLAADS-G would deploy to Mount Pleasant and possibly even Phalanx C-RAM now we’ve had some experience with it. With a few Kilo’s the Armada is going to be no more capable of launching saturation cruise strikes than the RN SSN force would be able to with TLAM…and those weapons would be flying right into the teeth of AD systems well capable of engaging them.
Its not a high percentage of success attack and, to deliver that attack, they would have to induct the submarines, train the crews up on them, build up a pattern of operational experience and get past some of the best SSN’s deployed. Remember that the SSK threat is now taken a lot more seriously than it was in 1982 and training to counter it has been part of RN focus ever since.
The heavy SSM element, of that concept, is key as its an attack vector that UK forces have no fielded counter to and, even if the defending forces ramped up to match Argentine capability increases, it would be something that would be initially unaddressed. Chinese heavy missiles appearing on the Argentine mainland would naturally trigger a UK drive to gain land-based ATBM capability of course….but this would be something new that the deployed forces would have to work up….and the only options would be PAC-3 or Arrow UOR’d. Even then there would be the ready-round limit for the deployed interceptors so the advantage is decidedly with the Argentine heavy rocket forces.