More recently, BA’s position on the A380 has been “wait and see after it enters service”. I’m hardly surprised that Willie Walsh hasn’t been going head-over-heels for the A380 – BA is a big prize and he’d be foolish to express significant interest an advance of any negotiations that might sometime take place.
LHR is likely to open up to new entrants in the not too distant future (after Bermuda II collapses), making slot acquisition more difficult even for BA. But slots won’t be an issue for BA in the short or medium term as they’ll simply dump unprofitable short haul markets or move them to LGW, in order to make space for more profitable long haul operations.
However, BA will not concede the Kangaroo route to Qantas (even with its interest in QF) or the likes of Singapore Airlines or Emirates and there comes a point where it will be necessary to ramp up capacity in that market. Frequency is largely irrelevent in this market as most passengers don’t need to arrive at 10:00 or 12:00 or 14:00 to go straight into a meeting in Sydney. Likewise India and the Far East (Hong Kong, Japan), and maybe even the US West Coast, will sooner or later need a capacity upgrade. BA could, I repeat could, just increase premium cabin sizes and reduce the steerage at the back in some markets, but its not all that easy with fixed bulkheads and the need to keep a fleet flexible and usable in markets that have different demands for premium versus cheap seats. And remember we’re not talking about a small airline here with limited markets – we’re talking about an airline that carriers more long-haul international passengers than most.
The 747-800 might have a common flight deck crew qualification (has that been confirmed yet) but with new engines and new systems it most certainly won’t have much commonality with the existing fleet on the ground. The A380 isn’t therefore much more of a leap than the 747-800 would be.
I therefore think that BA will eventually acquire a small fleet of A380s – they probably need half a dozen or so to run the Kangaroo route, and a few more to sustain other high-capacity markets. I would guess at an order for maybe 10 initially, with 10 more options. But it won’t happen for at least a year. If you accept that BA will eventually order A380s (OK, some don’t) then they have no missions that need 747-800s – the A380 can do pretty much any mission BA cares to put it on. Thus, I think BA will eventually order 777-300ERs to replace some of its older 747-400s (and have some commonality with the 777-200s already in the fleet), and eventually order 787s to replace long haul 767-300ERs and eventually the other 747-400s (although I guess the reworked A350 could enter the frame). 10-15 years from now, I think BA long haul will have a small A380 fleet, 777-300ER/777-200s, 787s and maybe a few 747-400s still lingering on.
Andy
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