SkymonsterRising prices will hit all airlines regardless so surely all increases will follow current price bases, won’t they?
Indeed… Oil, and thus jet fuel prices, are forecast to rise slowly. Taxes will inevitably increase or there will be more of them. Overhead costs will rise. And suppliers will be looking to increase their pricing too. This will indeed impact all air travel to some degree or another.
Where I think the low-fare sector is potentially more vulnerable now is:
SkymonsterIf BA were to offer £20 flights from Manchester to Heathrow, there would be somewhat more than 5 pax on the A320! I don’t see why it costs £60 to fly MAN-LHR, but I suppose it’s still cheaper than £190 on a train!
Very simplistic this but: Typical A320 fuel burn: 2,100KG/hr; current jetfuel price: $890/metric ton
Meaning on a one hour sector, an A320 will burn close to $2000 in fuel. If the breakeven loadfactor was 70% of 150 seats, fuel contribution alone per one way sector per passenger is likely to be around £12. UK APD on short-haul domestics is £12 per sector. I’m not even going to go near what leasing/depreciation costs, what maintenance costs, what staff costs, what landing fees are, what eurocontrol/navigation services fees are involved, what the fees are for gate/check-in desks/ground services/property rent, or what’s paid for ground handling, baggage handling, etc.
However, it’s pretty easy to understand why MAN-LHR should realistically fare at £60 or more, and it’s also pretty easy to appreciate why the likes of Ryanair absolutely depend on the ancillary revenue and punative charges and why they need to squeeze staff and suppliers to make money flying passengers on a base fare of £20 or less.
Andy
SkymonsterOne thing is for sure – O’Leary isn’t going anywhere as long as he and his airline continue to make money and he will continue to be a thorn in the industry’s side. And on balance that’s not a bad thing.
On the contrary – whether individual passengers think its good (for their wallets), its a very bad thing for the airline industry as a whole. But indicators are there that the balance will start to move back the other way. Whilst low-fare carriers won’t go away, in the next few years (in less years than the lifetime of the low-fare sector so far), the low-fare carriers will be reigned back to some singificant degree – I’d go as far as suggesting not just a plateau in growth but some amount of contraction in the sector.
I believe that it’s now inevitable that this will happen – various government’s policies of economically restricting air travel through taxation (albeit under the dubious guise of “climate”), the ever upwards trend in fuel costs, supplier push-back against ever more punative demands for cost reduction from the sector, and the simple fact that traveller’s appetite for a cheap weekends away at the same old places – will all start to turn the curve back downwards well within this decade. When the graph does start to turn downwards, that’ll be a good day for the air travel industry overall.
Andy
SkymonsterIn your blinkered view of the world there seems to be no other low cost carrier, and you put the blame at Ryanairs door and no one elses.
Please, I’m well aware of the other players in the game and how they operate. There are “good” low-fare carriers and “bad” low-fare carriers. As an example of the former, I suggest Southwest in the USA, an airline I have flown with a number of times and with whom I would have no qualms about flying in the future. Ryanair may not be alone in the “bad” category, as a few US carriers such as Allegiant and to an extent Spirit come close in terms of what I view as a poor approach to business practices, customers and staff. The problem with Ryanair is it is at the absolute bottom of the pile.
Notwithstanding that, in the UK it’s primarily Ryanair that sets customer expectations and characteristics (with easyJet a lagging second), it’s Ryanair that leads in terms of becoming ever more punative in terms of the way it treats customers, suppliers and staff, and thus it’s Ryanair that inevitably is the main focus of attention.
Andy
SkymonsterSeriously, I have no idea why you have this ridiculous, narrow minded and ignorant idea that all Ryanair passengers are the scum of the Earth.
No I don’t think that Ryanair passengers are scum of the earth BUT…
For all the reasons I’ve just gone into above, I have not and never will travel with Ryanair on principal – their practices, business ethics, method of operation, and what they’ve done to the industry being the principals concerned. Sure, I love to travel by air and I could probably afford to do much more air travel if I was prepared to use Ryanair (which has a base at my local airport). But principals are too important, the non-tangible costs too high, so I don’t and I won’t.
Thus I understand WHY people travel with Ryanair, but please don’t expect me to have respect for those who do.
Andy
SkymonsterI’ve said it many times before – Ryanair has not been and still is not good for the industry.
Andy
Skymonsterwhat’s to say LS haven’t moved all of their booked pax on to MT or ZB, or another carrier who will still be flying?
That’s not what the press release says they’re doing… And in any case, I’m not alone in my thinking – take a look at one of the other popular forums for pilots and you’ll see others have the same view of JetPoo’s actions too.
Andy
SkymonsterYeah, yeah, yeah… IMHO, they’re not concerned about their passengers – they’re concerned about their revenue and load factors this Summer. The trouble in Egypt doesn’t suddenly start on March 1st, it’s already starterd in some areas. So why are they not suspending all Egypt flights from now on? If they were really concerned about their passengers, surely they’d stop flying to Egypt right now, whilst the trouble is still ongoing. Oh I know, most of the flights going now are fairly full because they were booked before the troubles started, and they don’t want to lose that revenue.
What they really mean is “Since holiday travellers are too stupid to realise that the places we fly to in Egypt are OK, and even though we only fly to places that don’t have any problems, our advance bookings for Egypt have dropped through the floor since the troubles started in Cairo. So, in order for us to avoid making a thundering great loss on our Egypt operations this summer, we’re going to let down all those poor folks who’ve already booked to go to Egypt and we’re going to try to take money off of them to go elsewhere instead.”
Very poor show by JetPooh IMHO, but typical of the low-cost sector that they don’t have the courage of their convictions and operate the flights they’ve offered when there’s no “customer safety” related reason why they shouldn’t.
Andy
SkymonsterSeriously, I have no idea why you have this ridiculous, narrow minded and ignorant idea that all Ryanair passengers are the scum of the Earth.
Oh get off your high horse and get a sense of humour… In any case:
1. The Southwest thing WAS a common saying in the industry back then
2. The parallel with Ryanair is/was meant to be humourous
3. If you don’t believe that Ryanair and the other low-fare airlines have brought a lot of riff-raff into commercial air travel (OK, not everyone who travels with Ryanair, but quite a few) who didn’t fly before, then you don’t get out much
Andy
SkymonsterThe day that horrible airline Ryanair and its nasty passengers (OK, not all passengers, not even all of Ryanair’s, are nasty) disappears from the scene the airline world will be better off… Fares will be able to go up, airports will be less congested, travel will become less stressful, flying by air will become more civilised again – and disposing of much of the unnecessary and frivolous travel will go some way to helping the airline industry answering back on criticism from the climate-changer looney-brigade. Ryanair is like a plague on the industry. No appology from me – just a day that IMHO can’t come soon enough.
Andy
SkymonsterIt always used to be said: “another full Southwest flight, another empty trailer park”. In Ryanair’s case it’s “another full Ryanair flight, another empty council estate / student dorm” :D. And of course, another case of “pay peanuts get monkies”. Really, Ryanair does have a knack of carrying some of the world’s lowlifes!
Andy
SkymonsterFirst Plastic Pig to be handed over in September??
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/01/28/352446/september-handover-set-for-787.html
That’s awefully close to the end of the Q3 target set by Boeing… And if it’s handed over in September, will it EIS in Q3 or will that drift into Q4?
Andy
SkymonsterI’ve taken a look inside a C-54 (DC-4), but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a DC-6 in person although I understand that a handful are still flying.
Alaska is by far the best place to catch sight of an airworthy DC-6 – Everts Air Cargo still have plenty working regularly in the state. There are only a few others active outside of the USA – Red Bull fly one in Europe, one has been flying until recently in Namibia but its not flying at present and is for sale now, and Air Atlantique in the UK hope to put one of their two DC-6s back in the air this year or next. There’s also an airworthy DC-6 flying cargo out of Opa Locka near Miami.
Recently I did research on the 6-7 differences and somewhere I saw that some 7s had three bladed props. But in rechecking my sources just now, I can’t find it. I don’t think I dreampt it. Weird.
You either dreampt it or your research references were wrong – no DC-4s or DC-6s with four bladed props, and no DC-7s with three bladers. That’s absolutely the basic way of telling the difference – although it doesn’t help if there are no props hung on the a/c you’re looking at!
Andy
SkymonsterAs far as differences are concerned, I suppose that the DC-6 is a generally larger and more substantial-looking aircraft than the DC-4.
Yes, its a bit like comparing a 737-200 to a 737-300 – and sooner or later you just get a feel for what is a DC-4 and what is a DC-6 without needing to consider the detailed differences.
Main clues are:
Andy
SkymonsterShame, it was a good read each time I bought it, although even when it was launched I wondered whether there was room for three news-stand GA flying magazines – four after Loop went high-street. Personally I prefer the mag with the F-word on the cover over Pilot, but it’s still sad to see the market halved in a month.
Andy
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