There’s no rationality (in terms of fact) to that unfortunately Peter.
The 747, 757, 777, MD11 and 727 all were/are/will be, offered as factory new freighters when the PAX varients were still selling, most of them well. Those the the ones that came into my head while writing this. There’s the A310F too, but that was more or less a product after the PAX varient ceased bringing in orders. But those are still factory built freighters, not conversions.
Yes, those planes where offered new as freighters. And yes, those planes where still selling for pax airlines. BUT, at that time the number of pax planes sold got smaller. This is not something to be embarassed about. A plane has a certain life cycle. It starts to sell, sells more, sells yet more and then levels out at a certain level of annual sales. A few years later it will decline.
Decline that is, unless new variants are offered. This could be increased ranger (ER/LR etc) or more capacity (100/200/300/400 etc) or “special mission” planes. And that’s where the freighters come in, as well as military applications.
With the exception of the 747 and the A380 there is not a single NEW planetype that was offered immediately as a freighter. And the only reason the 747 and the A380 where (are) offered as such was because there was (is) nothing quite like it in its size range.
Another reason for the 747 to be launched as a freighter was because it was a tweaked design of a proposed USAF cargo plane. Add to that the fact that Boeing expected the 747 to fail as a pax airliner. General consensus back then was that supsersonic was the pax way of the future. Only freight was expected to take slow, large planes. The oil crisis quickly put that theory to the history books.
Now many planes are launched with freight versions in mind. But not launched as such from the get go.
Also, who’s to say the A330 will be a popular freighter? What do you base this on? (genuine questions folks) Commonality means next to nothing to cargo operators so thats not in contention as a reason. Also, I beleive Boeing have already said the 787 is too PAX orientated to be a valid option for a freighter/tanker version.
I don’t know if it will be popular. But I still think that 2nd hand planes will be most popular. And if that theory is to prove true than eventually those A330s now flying pax will be converted to freighters. Size and range wise it seems to be a good replacement for the MD-11. The A330 will face stiff competition then from the 777 though, although some operators may find the 777 overkill due to it’s size.
You’re right that Boeing said the 787 is too optizimed for cargo. I am very curious how and why. It seems a daft decision to make a plane that can be used for one mission only. Personally I would not be surprised if this was said by Boeing to force the USAF into taking 767s. The latter would be preferred for Boeing because it would mean more production slots are available for more lucrative passenger planes.
Let’s put it this way. Boeing is guaranteed of the USAF contract, I think we can both agree on that (the timing and terms have yet to be determined). Now since they are guaranteed this, Boeing ought to put all their trump cards towards those customers it can loose. The passenger airlines. Therefore Boeing needs all 787 production slots for passenger airlines. The airlines will not go for the 767 anymore, with the exception of a handful airlines that want to expand their current fleet. That number will not be large considering the number of good 2nd hand 767s already available.
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