Still, probably Indonesia could be seen as a potential customer for the export PAK-FA sometime next decade (to start replacing the first lot of Sukhois imo)
Yeah, I expect Indonesia will pick up some PAK FA by late 2020s.
~100 KF-X and ~50 PAK FAs as the main combat capability, supplemented by ROK T-50s at the low end, should be doable by 2030, easily enough to see off those pesky Australians.
I regard both aircraft as being evolution’s on their respective ancestors rather than being derivatives :p
Hmm … Su-35 is certainly an ‘evolution’ of Su-27 in that it is basically Su-27++, whereas the same can’t be said for Super Hornet, which is in some ways inferior to F/A-18C/D and was designed with different objectives in mind. The relationship between Hornet and Super Hornet is perhaps more accurately reflected by the relationship between Su-27 and Su-34, which I would also describe as derivative.
Su-35 is not derivative just like F-18E is not derivative of F-18A.
Su-35 is a Su-27 derivative and F/A-18E/F is an F/A-18 derivative. 😎
Latest awesomeness from RP.net:

China is still working overtime to develop a reliable fifth generation turbofan and now they have to see this. It must be very demoralizing for them.
Not really. If anything, given that we’re looking at far less mature technologies, I expect China will close the hypersonic gap much more rapidly than they’ve managed to do with turbofans. It’s matching technologies and processes that’ve been refined over the course of decades that is a problem for any newcomer, bringing something new to the table resets the clock to a certain extent. Transformational technologies are generally bad news for the established powers because they allow challengers to catch-up and subvert the existing order. For an example, look at China’s rapid development and integration of unmanned systems.
I apologise for my own contributions towards de-railing of the thread. We are all here to follow the development of the PAK FA program and the informative posts by Jo Asakura and others are certainly appreciated (even if they often go over my head!). Cheers.
You make it sound like the Su-35S being larger than lets say RAFALE automatically means the Su-35S will be much more expensive to procure?
I am thinking of total lifetime cost of which fuel burn is a major contributor, at least if you plan to fly the aircraft at anything like NATO standards, something which, let us note, many Flanker operators do not.
It is widly known that maintaing a Tanker fleet is uber expensive. You have to service the takers, pay salleries to crews.
Sure, and it’s worth it because it maintains the skillsets and provides the basis for capabilities which can be expanded as necessary. Brazil is like Japan in this respect, fielded capabilities are secondary to potential capabilities and development of strategically significant industries. And this is a perfectly sensible approach when the threat board is close to zero. Much better than marshalling lots of scary Flankers against non-existent threats whilst everything behind the tip of the spear is choked for resources, or alternatively the whole society suffers the burden unnecessarily high military spending.
That is not allways true.
Su-35S would 90% of the time never need any tanker support. On top of that, Brazil is huge and their sea Territory is even larger. Su-35S With the small clubs for sea protections is very good.
It’s a matter of national priorities. If Brazil’s military spending was running at 2.5% GDP like India then things would be different and Flankers would be in the game, but they’re not. Brazil wants to develop its technology base, incorporate modern hardware and doctrine, maintain pilot skills, etc. Gripen E/F can do all that just as well as Super Hornet or Su-35, at a much more affordable price. My money is on Rafale for FX-2 but I suspect even that is probably a larger aircraft than FAB really wants. I think Rafale will win for industrial-strategic reasons, not because Gripen E/F doesn’t bring enough range/performance/capabilities to the table.
As for the cost savings from cutting tankers out of the loop … well that’s less practice for everyone involved, isn’t it? And less of a case for ordering (or developing in the first place) a tanker such as KC-390, which is no good for Embraer and the acknowledged national priority of developing the aerospace industry. Remember, this is a country looking to resurrect S-2s to refuel A-4s! I don’t think that’s for the operational benefits so much as skillsets and experience, both industrial and military.
The fact that they are large aircraft with correspondingly high operating costs is probably more of a negative than positive in Brazil’s case, yes.
When you’re up against the one-two punch of Rafale and Gripen, Super Hornet brings nothing to the table except for being the largest aircraft with a corresponding edge in range/payload — qualities that are basically irrelevant to Brazilian requirements. Or if they aren’t then FAB sure has chosen some odd aircraft to operate in the past, such that even Gripen E/F will offer dramatically improved coverage. However you juggle the potential decision criteria, Super Hornet comes off no better than second best, unless the ToT/industry package on offer is flatly superior, something which is largely beyond our ability to speculate, and which has nothing to do with the aircraft anyway.
I personally have my doubts that Brazil would purchase either the Su-35 or join the PAK-FA Program. If, Brazil is so up-set with the US over the Spying Allegations. That it rejects the Super Hornet. Then she will likely go back to the Rafale or maybe even the Gripen. With the latter being my choice…….
Super Hornet was never competitive from an operational or value-for-money perspective, its only chance was riding on the back of the US charm offensive. It’s that which the NSA revelations disrupted like a cold bucket of water to the face, re-awakening Brazilian politicians to the reality that the United States should not be trusted, that it continues to regard Brazil and indeed the entirety of the Americas as its personal playground, and that entering into such a dependency-inducing arrangement with the United States would be contrary to the national interest.
Of course I said all that in this very thread months before the NSA revelations, but hey, politicians are dumb everywhere, sometimes they need to be hit over the head with a frying pan before they’ll wake up. All credit to Snowden and Greenwald for supplying the necessary kitchen implement.
I think Russia sees a strategic advantage in helping other countries build up their aviation industries.
Su-35 -> T-50 is certainly more than anyone else can offer and should be a serious contender going by Brazil’s stated White Paper ambitions. The question is whether Brazil is actually serious about pursuing those ambitions and has the commitment to go the distance. Unfortunately for Russia, all signs point to ‘no’. The other wild card is Indo-Brazilian cooperation.
In any case, it should make a good stalking horse to wheedle some more info/promises out of France for future Rafale development. And of course India features in that picture too. As I’m sure I’ve remarked elsewhere, I don’t think FX-2 is going anywhere until MMRCA is a done deal.
Gee, I must have missed that war.
Who won?
If Russia did not have nukes, why would the U.S. attack.
Maybe for the same reason they attacked last time.
Still 200 Stealth Fighter possibly split on two fronts (Pakistan/China) isn’t going to be enough in another decade or two………(IMO)
That’s why there are programs like AMCA and IUSAV. Probably Tejas Mk. 3 too.
In any case, I seriously doubt that the initial FGFA order will be the end of India’s involvement with T-50. There will likely be follow-on orders to replace at least the early MKIs, and in the absence of a true bomber platform India will probably want to sign on for the inevitable strike variant when it rolls around too.