It comes down to what kind of wars the US will likely fight in the future. I think it’s pretty obvious the kind of large scale COIN war we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan are unlikely to occure in the future simply because it would be madness for any American President to fight a major land war. There’s no political will for it.
Times change. The turnaround from Vietnam to Reagan was a little over a decade and, psychologically speaking, one followed from the other. Personally I expect the Republicans to return to the White House in either 2020 or 2024, and to pursue an aggressive foreign policy coupled with military expansionism. The single largest factor driving this is the rise of China to near-peer status. Far from causing the United States to back down, this transitional period in the great power balance will occasion increased belligerence and inflexibility on the part of the United States.
Secondary factors reinforcing this structural tendency include the aforementioned period of relative — very relative, only in the sense of ‘no boots on the ground’ — quiescence under Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the fading of Afghanistan and Iraq from political consciousness. Additionally, given the demographic transition in the nation, this period will likely represent the last chance for Republicans to rapidly advance their economic agenda, an objective that will be greatly enhanced by directing the attention of the American people abroad whilst their society is disassembled from under them.
It is likely that the mid-late 2020s will see American militarism reach heights not seen since the 1950s.
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