FX-2 deal is at most $3b to $4b spread out over 10 year if it materializes.

The longer-term FAB requirement is almost certainly more than 36 aircraft, and then you get into new carriers (French cooperation likely here also) and aircraft to operate from them…

it cannot give Brazil any influence infact it will give influence to France to squeeze Brazil because once this money is commited to Rafale Brazil will have little money left to look for alternatives incase the deal slow down in implementation or some other countries put influence over France.

Even though a strategic partnership between Brazil and France covering submarines, carriers, aircraft, etc. makes sense for both nations this doesn’t mean Brazil should just accept any terms France dictates. Of course Brazil should play their hand, safeguard their interests, and secure the best deal possible.

Snecma engines are small and not powerfull enough for 5G fighters. It will need complete built of new infrastructure.

The proposed 9t M88 variant already pushes it (paired) into AL-41 and F135 territory, no doubt with another decade of development they could push it even further. But it could well be a clean-sheet development project instead, who knows?

Your assuming France is independent country from Germany and league of Arab nations. Just look at Airbus sales especially the wide body one.

There are many degrees and components of independence. Yes, France has sacrificed some of its autonomy to date, but rather less than have the UK, Germany, and other comparable nations, and maintaining French self-sufficiency remains a priority for the nation. It is true that the trend towards greater inter-dependence is likely inexorable, but this trend can be slowed and resisted at its most problematic points as resources allow. If at all possible, France will seek to safeguard its aerospace capabilities, and partnerships with emerging nations, most notably Brazil and India, are the way forward on this.

Brazil simply cannot rise in current form.

In JSR-world is there any country other than Russia with healthy future economic prospects? 😉

The same long-range forecasts that have Brazil emerging as the world’s largest economy outside of the ‘big three’ (China, US, India) have Russia right behind it. Can’t throw out one without the other.

The B-1R (look it up) was one of the options put forward under the 2006 Quadrennial Defence Review and had been rejected by the 2010 QDR in favour of a clean-sheet project. It would’ve been cool in a Dale Brown sort of way, but I suspect it was the correct decision.

Brazil have practically zero influence over France.

FX-2 (well, rather the far-reaching strategic relationship that will likely accompany or follow from it) will give Brazil influence over France, for the same reason that Russia has significant influence over Antonov in Ukraine! When you hold the purse-strings, you call the shots! Of course this influence over France would be limited, but it far exceeds the influence that Brazil could hope to exert in a relationship with the United States, which has no need of Brazil.

France is part of EU (aka Germany) and league of Arab nations. Its ability to act independently is diminishing with time.

Yes, exactly. For a Rafale successor France won’t be able to afford to go it alone and will instead be forced to a Typhoon-style consortium of equals unless it can secure more favourable terms elsewhere, e.g. in partnership with Brazil.

so i am not sure what Brazil is gaining by over expensive French technology transfer.

You don’t know what Brazil gains by tapping into a world-class technology base with fewer strings attached than any other nation with as broad a portfolio to offer?

And before you say it, yes, Russia is also one of Brazil’s better options.

China rose due to American money

And America now perceives China as a strategic threat amidst increasing tensions between the two powers, which is precisely my point. The rise of Brazil as regional power and significant actor in global affairs is not in US interests, whereas it is in French interests. Who do you think makes for the better long-term partner? Someone who wants you to succeed in order to further their own interests, or someone who, deep down, would prefer to maintain the status quo and unrivalled hegemony over the Americas?

I don’t like Hornet from that angle either … actually I’m not sure any aircraft looks good side-on. :p

Don’t get me wrong, there have been some great Hornet and Super Hornet pics in this thread, it’s just annoying to have an otherwise excellent Rhino shot ruined by the pylons. Maybe some people can ignore them, but I can’t. The only Rhino shot I’ve saved with loaded pylons visible is this one where the splay isn’t evident:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]217412[/ATTACH]

So I stumbled across a link to an advertorial from Lockheed Martin. Only the image accompanying the link wasn’t quite scaled correctly.

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*snicker*

My money is on ongoing circus and no decision to be made in next few years, especially as we have Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games coming up.

This could happen too. I think one of the reasons this contract has been so drawn out is precisely because of its nature as first and foremost a strategic exercise. If it was simply a matter of ‘we need a couple dozen airframes’ it would’ve been sorted out a long time ago.

Going back a decade I think the best route Brazil could have taken would’ve been to buy the entire Mirage 2K production and technology base from France. This would’ve allowed domestic industry to service today’s requirements (through till ~2020) whilst putting the nation in a much better position to subsequently take the next step up to Rafale F4+ or whatever. Bit late for all that now, although second-hand M2Ks are still an option if the FAB requirement becomes too urgent whilst the strategic picture is still in flux.

This must be a render, but hot sex one! :applause:

We have no data to support that the J-31 would be superior in any respect to the F-35. As a matter of fact the odds are against it.

What? You can argue about J-31 as a system, but to claim that it will not be superior to F-35 in any respect borders on the absurd. Absent the design compromises imposed on F-35 by the STOVL variant J-31 is likely to be faster and more agile than F-35, and likely to have better payload options also (one large bay vs. F-35 split bays). Possible to likely F-35 advantages are in range, avionics and RCS.