I am not sure if the J-31 could do STOBAR with a pair of RD-93s, although the base design for the J-31 appears to be the F-35C.

I don’t think China is going to be limited to STOBAR for long, and in any case there’s no chance of J-31 being ready before 2020, plenty of time to get WS-13 in order offering combined thrust comparable to F-35. And there’s nothing unusual about aircraft in development using underpowered engines — see Rafale, J-20.

Remember that the J-31 is intended for export, so SAC must solve the engine sourcing issue and pick an engine that was easy to source in order to export.

I don’t think it’s really the case that J-31 is intended primarily for export. I think it is intended primarily to attract the attention of PLANAF/PLAAF, with exports as a potential fallback. Indeed, without interest from PLANAF/PLAAF I don’t think the platform is going anywhere — it’s just too expensive to bring this level of tech to operational status without large guaranteed future orders.

http://russianplanes.net/images/to97000/096216.jpg

Longest-range Mi-8 ever.

“Where are you going, Mikhailovich?”

“Deep into the Taiga, Anatoly. A very long holiday. I don’t expect I shall return. In fact, I mean not to.”

[I just watched Werner Herzog’s Happy People: A Year in the Taiga. There was an Mi-8 in it too. :o]

Indeed, this is why I am skeptical of the Shenyang Military Region’s ability to complete the J-31 alone and on export orders. Without the central government backing, it will be half-finished and be loaded with sub-standard parts.

I suspect that it will indeed be picked up. The Navy needs a VLO jet for its future carriers — the combined J-15/J-31 platform mix would be the most impressive afloat — and a more affordable stealth aircraft would be useful for PLAAF to follow on from J-10B a decade from now.

As a relatively minor detail, it would also do much to improve the status and prospects for WS-13 which will certainly be a useful engine for UCAVs in future, plus improving the export prospects for JF-17.

Luxury! If you want to see real pain, look at how budget cuts have affected practices for evaluating emerging threats!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw-gug6GdEI

I think that is an astute observation Rii. I very much see that as a strong possibility.

Of course any joint carrier program would be highly dependent upon how the existing programs for Scorpene submarines and particularly the SSN program pan out, but I think a long-term techno-industrial alliance is in both nation’s interests’.

The French side of things is simple enough — a large, reliable customer+partner in an age where the ability of the French state to continue to afford its traditional techno-industrial independence is in question and promises to erode further over the coming decades.

The Brazilian side of things requires a little more justification — clearly if one ‘commits’ to the French in the manner I am suggesting then one will, quite literally, pay the inflated price for it. And yet there are obvious advantages in drawing from a single source, particularly when that source can offer (relatively) comprehensive coverage. Moreover, the overall ‘climate’ of the Brazilian situation does not feel amenable to the kind of global window shopping the Indians are engaged in — Brazil has large ambitions but these are (admirably!!) not matched by excessive military spending. As a techno-strategic partner France is (1) able, (2) willing, and (3) offers no prospect of strategic friction. So long as the spaceport remains open, France couldn’t care less what goes on in the Americas. In Brazil’s case, I feel that the benefits of such a long-term partnership — and with France, building on the relationship to date — outweigh the costs, much as they clearly would not for a nation such as India.

Obviously the Brazilian FX2 deal is tied up in all this as well. Indeed, based upon what we know of it, and the 2010 National Defence Strategy document, I suspect one of the reasons for the ongoing delay is that the industrial-strategic considerations attached to the program are so weighty as to dwarf its ostensible nature as an acquisition program. Mind you, if they don’t hurry up they may have to buy those M2Ks from UAE to hush the Air Force up. :p

Murky waters ahead to be sure. One thing is clear, though: De Gaulle’s claim that “Brazil is not a serious country” is a relic of a bygone era, particularly for France!

Would that see Brazil getting Rafale-M?

Interesting question. Considering the likely future of non-F35 production lines, the decision on a future carrier aircraft will have to made sooner rather than later. Indeed, although it is not specified the outcome of FX2 will likely indicate the future carrier aircraft to be operated also.

XKCD has a strip/investigation into flying a Cessna on other planets which may be of some vague relevance and interest here. Filled with tidbits such as:

X-Plane tells us that flight on Mars is difficult, but not impossible [….] The tricky thing is that with so little atmosphere, to get any lift, you have to go fast. You need to approach Mach 1 just to get off the ground, and once you get moving, you have so much inertia that it’s hard to change course—if you turn, your plane rotates, but keeps moving in the original direction. The X-Plane author compared piloting Martian aircraft to flying a supersonic ocean liner.

http://what-if.xkcd.com/30/