RiiRecent pressures on the Russian economy (budgets, sanctions, currency value) would also increase India’s bargaining power if Delhi cared to take advantage of it. This is in addition to Russia’s general strategic imperative to shore up relations wherever it can to compensate for declining relations with Europe. It is a great time to negotiate deals with Russia, as China has already realised and taken advantage of with that enormous gas deal signed a few months back.
RiiReally this whole leverage thing is being pushed too far. What was the govt. supposed to do? Let the negotiations continue for another year till your leverage pans out? Then another year? Like the previous UPA regime that set the benchmark for tardiness, corruption and self-goal scoring? Was the PM supposed to shut his eyes and ears like our ex-PM Manmohan Singh, to the repeated pleading by the IAF Air Chiefs that their combat edge was eroding and that some decision be taken?
I agree that the MMRCA deadlock had to be resolved immediately. I do not agree that purchasing a handful of Rafales from France was the best way to go about doing that. Yes, it would’ve been preferable to purchase zero Rafales and to simply extend (not necessarily increase the rate of) MKI production by 2-3 years and increase both the rate and total numbers of Tejas production.
You say that MKI has reliability issues. We know that much of this is tied to the service arrangements that were in place and which have now been resolved with the establishment of an in-house service center. You mention that there was the desire to diversify from over-reliance on Russia: this objective is all well and good, but as you point out the situation was now in extremis where there are no ideal solutions. Further, the western technology stream that MMRCA was originally to entrench has now been partly established in the Tejas and AMCA programs. Indigenous programs today are in a much, much better position to hedge against over-reliance upon Russia than they were a decade ago when MMRCA was created, and this will only continue to improve.
As for the IAF chiefs, if they were really concerned about India’s warfighting capability the last thing they would support is a token force of Rafales with a unique training and logistics chain. Rather they would want to recapitalise the aircraft inventory in the most cost-effective manner possible — i.e. more MKI and Tejas — and they would worry less about squadron numbers and more about ensuring adequate stocks and redundancies of PGMs, missiles, fuel, spare parts, and other such mundane affairs. Any idiot with money can buy planes — see most of the Middle East, esp. Saudi Arabia — but nobody credits those nations with any serious warfighting capability (as Yemen will no doubt demonstrate).
RiiALA is not Brahmos, in fact very little is known about it other than it’s a solid rocket motor. Rafale can still carry the ALA if it is within it’s weight capacity.
Not the ‘Air Launched Article’ (which is a paper project at the moment), just the BrahMos-A. But you’re right in that the purpose built BrahMos equipped Su-30s will be the platform of choice for strategic air missions. The first choice however is still likely to be the Nirbhay LACM.
Thanks for this input. Nirbhay can certainly carry a larger warhead if miniaturization is a concern. However in the long run I imagine that India would also want a weapon that can be carried internally by FGFA. Such a weapon would also be more suitable for carriage by Rafale, if necessary.
Surely you’re aware of how the Indian procurement system works by now..small orders, followed by larger follow-on orders..the Su-30MKI deals, the MiG-29K deals, the Pilatus deal, the C-130J, the P-8I..the list goes on.
Which doesn’t change the fact that it is usually (small orders like P-8 being an exception) a terrible system that maximises vendor leverage for subsequent orders. Hardly a habit that PM “Make in India” Modi should be applauded for upholding.
I do believe it’s possible that further Rafale orders will be held as an option against problems/delays with FGFA (although it’s hardly an ideal substitute, is it?) but that is a very thin silver lining to be considered against the immediate idiocy of inducting yet another platform in low unit numbers with high fixed setup costs and ongoing unique training and logistics requirements.
RiiCould it be that the Rafales are mainly going to be tasked with the strategic/nuclear role?
Not likely, given that the “Air Launched Article” is basically an air-launched BrahMos that Rafale is unable to carry. Forty MKI airframes have been strengthened for the task.
RiiI think it’s just a matter of time before Russia ends sanctions on Iran. Really can’t see the Iranians going for anything else.
J-10?
Have to remember that Iran and Russia don’t have a comfortable history. Not to say they won’t buy Russian hardware as appropriate, but they’ll want to hedge their bets.
Riiwhen you test aircraft, you get data about their performance. the final choice is political, but if The two eurocanards were selected in the first place, they had to prove excellent performance, or their choice would be complicated to support
The two large Eurocanards were selected as the most capable aircraft and they are, not coincidentally, the most expensive. Subsequently, the price of the contract was a major stumbling block to actually concluding the deal, thereby depriving the IAF of valuable aircraft, arguably costing the lives of pilots in the process, and (eventually) delivering the a wildly inefficient token force of 36 airframes.
Or in other words, the IAF’s narrow focus on performance not only neglected the broader national interest of fiscal parsimony and cost-effectiveness (other people’s money) but actually came back to hurt the IAF itself. This is why you don’t let the services run amok, in any nation. They not only have no regard for the broader national interest, they often don’t even know what’s good for their own interests.
RiiIAF has thoroughly tested everything that is on the market today… besides, it’s their rear ends in the cockpits who’ll eventually get killed if the choice isn’t good
The idea that decisions such as these are made based upon solemn and impartial consideration of all relevant factors makes for a nice bedtime story for children, but in this day and age I’m surprised anyone would believe it of any nation, let alone a nation like India which still has to worry about direct bribery of flag ranks and high officials (as opposed to the more sophisticated revolving-door careerism found in e.g. the Pentagon).
IAF’s breathless obsession with approved squadron strength is evidence enough that IAF is concerned neither with fiscal realities, nor actually pressing “warfighting” issues such as a woeful lack of PGMs. How many PGM kits and LDPs could India afford with the money allocated for this trivial and wildly inefficient Rafale capability, I wonder. In no sense can the IAF’s peculiar priorities be taken as a proxy for the national interest.
RiiWith the Rafale, India gets a fully capable combat proven aircraft, not to speak of other advantages it may get from the French. For example, during MMRCA competition, I’ve read that the French, in case India choose the Rafale, proposed to share ELINT data they gather through their satellites in all that region. Such data is of strategic importance and can very well outweigh a lot of offers they may get from elsewhere
I not only predicted that Rafale would win MMRCA (when most others were saying that it was too expensive, or that India would definitely buy American, or Russian) but supported that outcome on the basis of the strategic — rather than operational or financial — aspects of the deal. Thing is, most of that is out the window now. There will be no technology transfer, no deep networks of association with French industry to exploit going forward, and the idea that France is going to make concessions of the strategically sensitive nature, e.g. sharing ELINT data, for the sake of a 36-airfame contract is implausible. But flip that around — much more plausible is that a token 36-aircraft contract was made in the context of a broader national relationship, as the minimum price necessary to simultaneously serve this relationship, satisfy interested domestic constituencies, and extricate the Indian government from its present mess.
RiiOr maybe the IAF knows why they want Rafales better than you insisting on their buying either obsolete fighters (Typhoon T1), unreliable ones (Su-30) or Powerpoint warriors (F-35).
The IAF likes buying shiny toys with other people’s money, it’s not that complicated.
RiiThat is a similar question as to why Russian needs all those Su-27SM, Su-27SM3, Su-30M2, then Su-30SM, Su-34 and then Su-35S. The answer is to maintain all factories busy and relevant on the market – KnAAZ, IAPO, NAPO. Likewise they have decided to keep the Sokol plant alive, as well – for that they need to launch at least an initial MiG-35 order until export clients which they hope for, do arrive.
For some reason this made me think of Tolstoy’s line that happy families are alike, but unhappy families are each unhappy in their own particular way. Only in this context the line became that each military-industrial complex is insane after its own particular fashion.
RiiRather than this 36 buy being a quick way to replace some MiG21s before too many more drop out the sky and the deal negotiations still continuing?
Over the next three years India will receive another four dozen MKIs and probably two dozen Tejas. Adding three dozen Rafales on top of that is only a 50% increase in airframes delivered over the period — hardly a game changer. The 36-unit Rafale order as some kind of “emergency supplement” makes no sense vs. the obvious alternatives of extending/increasing MKI and Tejas production. It’s a political gesture through-and-through.
RiiPity it couldn’t be over without the 36-airframe poisoned chalice.
RiiThe fall in the yen is showing.
The list using constant (2011) USD is somewhat different:
USA: 577511
China: 190974
Russia: 91694
Saudi Arabia: 73717
France: 63022
Japan: 59033
UK: 54914
India: 49999
Germany: 46590
Brazil: 37290
RiiLatest SIPRI estimates (released today) have India’s military spending having overtaken Japan and Germany in 2014.
Top 10 (in current USD millions)
USA: 609914
China: 216371
Russia: 84462
Saudi Arabia: 80762
France: 62289
UK: 60482
India: 49968
Germany: 46455
Japan: 45776
South Korea: 36677
Should catch UK/FR by early 2020s.
RiiThe only way this deal could get any worse is by adding used Typhoons to it.
Sign In
