Well the “rumours” (news in all but name) coming out about India’s decision to buy ~60 Rafales direct from France are depressing. A capitulation from India, a complete failure of the MMRCA project, and effectively winding the clock back to 1985.

The only positive angle I can see is that it may have been the minimum commitment necessary to “buy off” the western-oriented wing of the Indian establishment (IAF, MoD, etc.) and to thereby secure the future of FGFA.

India’s future bargaining position is weakened, not strengthened, by buying Rafale off the shelf. As well as making it more difficult to subsequently justify an alternative platform (thereby allowing Dassault to get away with a less competitive offer) it makes the prospect of future indigenous production and transfer of technology even more challenging and expensive, as fixed costs would now be spread over a smaller number of airframes.

It is difficult to see this as anything other than a colossal failure for India, and a tremendous victory for Dassault. This is Mirage 2000 all over again, thirty years later.

Because what IAF really needs at this point is yet another airframe operated in low unit numbers with its own training and logistics chain.

Read the article? The figure of $20bn is in there, but much more importantly the article explains the process by which the new, significantly higher figure was arrived at and subsequently proliferated in the media.

Google turns up many references to “Rafale India $20bn” dating back years, even before Rafale was selected as L1!

Business Standard — Ajai Shukla

July 31st 2011

For years, India’s proposed purchase of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) — the world’s largest overseas fighter buy for which the Typhoon, built by Eurofighter GmbH, and the Rafale, developed by French vendor Dassault, remain in contention — has been valued at Rs 42,000 crore, or almost $10 billion. Now, that valuation is set to rise dramatically, as the Ministry of Defence (MoD) carries out a process called benchmarking.

Benchmarking is the process of estimating the fair price for any purchase, and is completed before the MoD opens the price bids for any tender. This is done by an MoD committee which scrutinises similar tenders worldwide, especially recent sales, to arrive at a comparable — or as the name suggests, a benchmark — price. If all the vendors’ bids emerge significantly higher than the benchmark, the tender is cancelled and the process begun afresh.

For example, if the MoD committee that is benchmarking the MMRCA concludes Rs 42,000 crore is a decade-old estimation that should be increased due to inflation by 50 per cent, the benchmark for that contract will be pegged at Rs 63,000 crore. When the Eurofighter’s and Dassault’s bids are opened and if both turn out to be notably higher, the MoD will scrap the MMRCA tender. On the other hand, if the lower bid is less than or approximates the benchmark, that bid will be accepted.

Sounds like that increase in numbers purchased has been withdrawn and India is now demanding the impossible original price for purchase as a excuse to drop the contract all togeather.

I think it is just media getting mixed up as usual.

I recently got 70 !! yes !!

But in Belgium live MANY younger people, believe me !! ;http://i.huffpost.com/gen/444061/images/r-TINTIN-600×275.jpg

friendly yours,

Etienne

Congratulations! As for Tintin — he will always be young in our hearts. Reminds me I should see the recent film at some point.

Like most western nations, Belgium’s population is ageing. The number of persons aged 70yrs of age or more for every 100 working-age persons will increase from 20 today to 28 by 2030 — a 40% increase. This will place upward pressure on social services spending, principally healthcare and aged pensions, which in turn will tend to restrict funds available for other purposes. Of course, public policy can change, and I am certainly not privy to the vagaries of Belgian politics, but despite the recent flare-up in Ukraine, it is difficult to envision circumstances over the coming decade that would justify or otherwise tend towards the significant increase in military spending that, as per your original link, would be necessary to fund the recent shopping list.

A more efficient engine resulting in increased range? But what will be the trade-off?????