Just one of my random musings:
A day before the new Indian administration was announced, the Russians publicly announced the lifting of the self-imposed embargo against Pak.
A few days before bare-chested Putin is supposed to arrive in Delhi, the Russians announce an agreement for a broad range of military-to-military ties with Pak.
*snip*
Hi Victor,
I believe that to consider these developments to be surprising, or portending of any significant developments in Russo-Indian relations, would be to misread the baseline relationship between the two countries, from which these trends are perceived. The Russo-Indian relationship is important to both nations and will continue to be so for the forseeable future, but it is a relationship driven by mutual self-interest, and neither nation is under any illusions about this.
In terms of Russia’s relations with Pakistan, I would look less to Russia’s relations with India and more to Pakistan’s relations with the US, and Russia’s own interest in productive relations with the Pakistani state, not merely in narrow financial or chessboard geo-political terms, but in terms of Russia’s difficulties with Islamist movements in Dagestan, etc.
Occasional big deals like power plants are a small proportion of trade. Headlines about big deals are not a reliable guide to trade flows.
And trade flows are not a reliable guide to a nation’s value as a strategic partner. Russia becomes increasingly important to India (and vice versa) the deeper one digs into matters of strategic significance. Russia’s assistance in India’s nuclear submarine program may be small in dollar terms, but is of enormous strategic value and significance.
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