Perhaps SAAB sees its future more as a designer cum systems integrator. European labour costs are high. To me it would make sense to shift assembly to a lower cost location (eg Brazil).
A contract with Brazil should bring useful economies of scale. Over time I would see Brazil going from 3 existing fighter types to just 1 and Brazil possibly becoming the biggest Gripen E operator. It is a very large country so while Gripen E may be far more capable than F-5 and AMX I don’t see these being replaced on a 1:2 basis (for example like Holland replacing its F-16 aircraft with F-35). I guess that 75+ aircraft might be required to replace the 100 or so fighters Brazil has been operating from bases around the country.
Yep; over time Brazilian Gripen numbers could well reach triple digits, easily so if Sea Gripen becomes the nation’s next carrier aircraft.
FX-2 was always about much more than the initial 36 airframes. The result is as significant as MMRCA, and a huge win that secures the future of Gripen and SAAB.
As for Rafale, clearly it is a major loss, but not disastrous so long as MMRCA pulls through in the end — which it will. Also we shouldn’t expect Dassault to just cede the future Brazilian market to SAAB, they’ll still be around in future pushing evolved Rafale for the Navy and as a high-end complement to Gripen for FAB. Whether it will make any sense for Brazil to go down that road will largely depend on how practicable Sea Gripen turns out to be, but in any case having the option will certainly benefit Brazil in future negotiations.
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