Justin Trudeau, the newly elected prime minister, follows through on his pledge to cancel the country’s planned 65-plane purchase, Canada becomes the first country to reject the fifth-generation fighter — and the first industrial partner to withdraw participation in the program.
Such a move would reverberate across the globe, with all remaining partners forced to pay higher prices for F-35s.
For Canada’s supply base, the stakes are high. Many Canadian companies have spent years building components for the new plane and stand to lose as much as CDN$11 billion (US $8.3 billion) in work over the life of the jet.
On the other hand, the new Liberal government argues that an open competition for Canada’s fighter-jet replacement would more than make up for the loss of the F-35 business.
Impact to F-35 Partners
In 2010, Canada committed to buying 65 F-35s on a sole-source basis as the replacement for its fleet of CF-18s. Two years later, then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper paused that purchase amid accusations that his government had lied about the true cost of the fighter program.
The F-35’s future in Canada has been called into question since Trudeau’s sweeping victory in the Oct. 19 election.
Trudeau has promised to pull out of the F-35 program and to move quickly on replacing Canada’s aging CF-18s with another plane through a competition. He has said that Canada does not need a stealth fighter for its defense needs and that the F-35 is too expensive.
In Washington last week, US Lt. Gen. Christopher C. Bogdan, F-35 Joint Program Office chief, said the remaining international partners can blame Canada for a $1 million price increase per jet if Ottawa scraps its 65-plane buy.
What’s next for Canada?
Canada’s decision to drop the F-35 was mixed with politics, as the cost for the fifth-generation fighter had dogged Harper’s government. But Trudeau has positioned the argument as one of necessity, emphasizing that Canada should focus more on homeland defense than power projection with its new fighter buy.
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group, points to Trudeau signalling he’ll withdraw Canada from military operations against the Islamic State group as proof that the new government is focusing inward, rather than outward, with its security decisions.
“It was form fitting function — it’s not about if it’s a good fighter, but, rather, if this is a role Canada should have,” Aboulafia said. “The F-35 is the perfect plane if Canada is going to be part of coalition warfare. If they just want something that provides air protection for sovereignty, something else fits just fine.”
Gene Colabatistto, group president for defence and security at CAE, the largest Canadian-owned defense company, agrees that the primary mission set Canada needs to fulfill is the sovereignty mission.
The question now becomes what jet will fill that mission.
Trudeau has previously suggested that the F-35 would not be considered in any competition, but even if it were invited back in, it seems an unlikely winner. Any new competition immediately becomes a plum prize for jet producers, as there are few large-scale fighter procurements expected in the next few years.
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