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JSR

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  • in reply to: should India have gotten Su-35 instead? #2243403
    JSR
    Participant

    which reflects the bigger problem of factories producing their own rogue variants and the state pouring money in buying different versions of the same aircraft in order to keep its workforce employed.
    you don’t see Boeing’s Long Beach plant and Macon plant making their own C-17 variants.

    You need independent factories and atleast two to three engine and radar manufactures. Its big risk to depend the entire airforce on single factory. All kind of issues from labor unrest to, natural disaster to espionage can happen at single factory.

    in reply to: should India have gotten Su-35 instead? #2243405
    JSR
    Participant

    Exactly.

    Not relevant. If they were so hard up for money, why did they not cancel the Su-34 all the more and simply tack orders onto the Indian Su-30MKI production run? Development costs were borne almost completely by India, and what little Russia may have contributed evidently did not break the bank, seeing how the Su-30MKI proceeded quickly and smoothly.

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    When money was in short supply they did Su-27SM upgrades and declared it better than all the export Flankers at that time.
    Obviously Su-30MKI is more developed now 10 years later but when there is alot more money available its better to have specialized aircraft like Su-35 and Su-34. and coming years will prove that point beyond doubt.
    why it needs big tail and so large spine? just so it can burn more fuel for no reason.

    http://i43.servimg.com/u/f43/15/83/83/58/11122210.jpg

    how is your modern An-70 production coming along and what new verstile variants are coming? how many billions are there for engine reliability & uptime improvement. Your predictions always turned up to be wrong.

    in reply to: should India have gotten Su-35 instead? #2244246
    JSR
    Participant

    well duh sherlock, we all know the su-35 is better than the su-30MKI. that was never the question
    its a matter if the su-30MKI can meet the same job demands.

    India cannot afford Su-35 at this point. as it will require separate licensing and pilot training will be different as cockpit and performance levels different.

    in reply to: should India have gotten Su-35 instead? #2244967
    JSR
    Participant

    that’s what I said.
    some time ago, i was discussing with some one.. either TR1 or Haarvy or some one
    that Russia should’ve piggy backed off Indian Su-30MKI and standardized off the MKI albeit with a Russian version (in other words what would become the Su-30SM?) and not go for Su-34,35, and all other strange variants of the 30.
    but the replies are always like “but the MKI can’t do every thing the 34 does.. the 34 has a special role.. This is Russia, we need specialized aircraft”.
    but they always ignore the question if whether that role is even relevant to begin with.
    had they standardized on the MKI, they probably would’ve had more advanced flankers in service by now and retire more Fulcrums and early flankers.

    Comparing Su-30MKI to Su-35 is alot worse than comparing Tornado to EF.

    Su-30MKI has the following disadvantages compared to Su-35
    1. 4 ton extra weight based on MTOW
    2. 4 ton less thrust
    3. 2 tons less fuel
    4. draggier raised twin seat cockpit with canards
    5. obsolete construction
    6. heavier old radar with old design cockpit. far less sensor fusion.
    7. old fbw system.
    8. airframe not design for 14 weopon stations. no wet stations or 5 heavy strike weopons.

    Su-35 kinematic performance will give it decisive edge in increasing range of weopons.
    Su-30SM is just adding fast airframe addition to Ruaf not specialized plane like Su-34 or Su-35. for large airforce specialized planes are more effective.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2246850
    JSR
    Participant

    And do you think Russia would survive if oil and other resources prices plummeted or if the economy collapsed again or if there’s was a coup or a Martian invasion?

    Just because Malaysia does assembly work doesn’t means it’s not a stable country.

    Given USSR’s implosion in 1991, civil war in Chechnya and to a lesser degree Dagestan, large scale terror attacks in USSR, male life excpectancy down to about 56 years due to chronic alcoholism, massive corruption cases, ethnic tensions between Cossacks and Muslims, I’d say Russia is just as unstable as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia and potentially more unstable.

    Next USA will be a poorer country than Russia/China because it had the Civil War,

    These are some of the daftest posts I’ve ever seen. Are the forumites being infested with Scooterism?

    Russia does not need foreign money or labor to dig out of the hole from USSR implosion. It repaid all the foreign debts. All big corporations are in Russian control. New police force trained just 40,000 for Olympics alone. huge investments in long term scientific innovations & infrastructure. Even i will forecast Russia will not need Suez canal and Malacca straits in few years. Once Russia does not need them. it will be better able to squeeze them more. I am not even going into Military investments that will practically change thw world.

    Chinese are very mercantile they understand what Russia has to offer them compared to rest of the world. Thats why no matter how much Arabs/Turks plead China. there answer is always No on Syria.
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    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2246903
    JSR
    Participant

    Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey are all relatively successful predominantly Islamic countries which survive without external aid and which are realtveily successful economically.

    Turkey Military is made of Western/Arab Aid since 1950s . Alot of Turks got employment in Germany since 1960s. Its society shaped by EU. it still need $100b per year of foreign inflows.

    If tommorrow King of Saudi announces that Turkey is not Islamic country and want to start islamic insurgencey. Do you think Turkey will survive better than Afghan or Algerian government?. starting from tourism to private inflows to currency collapse all in one. than add all the porous borders and different ethinic groups.

    Indonesia/Malaysia are assembly lines for Japanese/Korean/Chinese brands. I dont think you can considered it a success even Eastern EU has assembly lines with higher per capita and they started decades later.

    in reply to: Potential Syrian War – no fighter involvement? #2247663
    JSR
    Participant

    Turkey isn’t in the same category as Israel, & they should not be considered together. It’s viewed differently. It’s also already pissed off with Syria for shooting down one of its aircraft, & the deaths of Turkish citizens in cross-border shelling (to which the Turks reply in kind, but more so) & car bombs. The prime minister seems rather keen to back US action.

    I don’t think we can rule out Turkish involvement.

    Turkish PM is not just backer he actually want to participate in strike as he think Obama strike will be not strong enough to close this thing in reasonable time but he lost 25% of his currency value despite spending 25% of foreign reserves thats without some one turning energy screws.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2247666
    JSR
    Participant

    From the dissolution of the USSR to the fall of Kabul – 4 months. The government left behind by the USSR was a complete failure. It existed only because the USSR propped it up. It received reduced aid from ex-Soviet republics in its last few months, but that wasn’t enough to keep it going. How is that a success for the Soviet intervention?

    show me single islamic country that can survive without external aid. (non Oil ). It is very simple criteria. Algeria could not have defeated islamic insurgency without Oil/Gas money. Egypt would not survive without external aid.
    Government is complete success it stayed for 3 years after USSR left and its dissolution didnot blow back.

    in reply to: Military Aviation News-2013 #2247825
    JSR
    Participant

    it is unresonable to expect any export order for Su-35. as Ruaf deliveries are still very slow. it is the new weopon system that may have Chinese interest.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2247833
    JSR
    Participant

    So you ******** off out of Afghanistan and left a weak government with no backing with the people and with the countryside in control of the muhajadeen. The country was still in state of war. And even you state that the government lasted a mere 3 years before collapsing.

    I’d call that an epic fail just like Vietnam War was an epic fail in preserving South Vietnam.

    Vietnam become a united communist state. and US moved on with China.
    It is not the result of Afghan war. Afghanistan clearly got divided into North/West and South/East part. and it make sure that blow back is not towards CIS but rather internal infighting or towards the rest of the world.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2248067
    JSR
    Participant

    You know I sometimes wonder about the fantasy world you live in JSR. Only you would think that a war that led to the death of fourteen and a half thousand Soviet troops and a humiliating withdrawal was a huge success.

    I dont live in fantasy world but more realistic assessment. humiliating withdrawl means you run away from battlefield and sign surrender document which is not the case. That was very orderly withdrawl and Afghan government survived for 3 years after that. This despite that USSR has incompetent leadership at that time and there wasnt any new innovations introduced into battlefield. there was lack of hard currency to buyoff loyalties on grand scale.

    That thing also cleared the perception about certain things permanently in post Soviet space. China also learned valuable lesson. see its behaviour from Xinjiang to syria. That war has very big consequence down the road in Middleast.

    some people still not learning from experiance.

    http://radio.foxnews.com/toddstarnes/top-stories/mccain-saying-allahu-akbar-is-like-saying-thank-god.html

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2248893
    JSR
    Participant

    Just like Vietnam was a US success.

    Vietnam cannot be considered success as it led to compromise with even bigger communist China. and the whole China rise can be traced back to that period along with evaporation of middle Class & creation of debt in West. Afghan war has different end result. IF China remain poor i dont think UK would have agreed of giving up HK along with all the financial center knowledge. Soviet Union kept its satellites states kept technlogically backward. Czech/Poland never built the scientific capability for advanced arms industry.

    infact all your expeditionary warfare that you so tom tom starting from Kosov to Libya is only to benefit these people. otherwise how can they speak on some one else behalf?

    http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/80523/Business/Economy/Western-donors-will-not-cut-aid-to-Egypt-Saudi-FM.aspx

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/libya-oil-exports-20-percent-pre-war-level-20093332

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2249391
    JSR
    Participant

    Actually most of the Israeli fighters with Mirage IIICJs delivered in 1960s. Generally comparable to a MiG-21 and technically MiG-21MF was more modern.

    i dont see how they are comparable. as you dont know the pilots flying hours in the theatre. Israelis has alot of experiance in that neigborhood. I dont think in those times that much computer and simulators that creates realistic scenarios in all terrains for pilot training.

    Not if your opponent is an incompetent tyro. It’s kinda like the Wehrmacht smashing Red Army in early 1941. Certainly no 3 to 1 numerical superiority there.

    when there is no fight so the competency does not arise.

    And this is why you got your butts kicked in Afghanistan and then initially in Chechnya.

    By the way American intel on Afghanistan was also crap.

    Afghanistan was huge Soviet Success. infact that Soviet experiance gained in Afghan war prevented further rise in islamism. thats why you see so many pipelines built in CIS now in safety. while Middleast is in flames and more depended on tankers. Nato is lucky that Russia didnot create hell for them in Afghanistan.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2249472
    JSR
    Participant

    Of course the Russians, Chinese, Indians and now Sudanese with their Su-24s could destroy American air power with the blink of an eye.

    I’d sooner bet on Americans beating the Chinese in any war than China winning.

    Both Russia and China has strong economies. They are not wasting there resources on worthlesss allies. They practically control CIS countries natural resources. Chinese have started using Arctic route and CIS railways. They dont need rest of the world as much rest of the world needs them. You will find this out with time.

    And of course the Americans, British, French etc don’t have cruise missiles? Even Finland is buying them.

    And the Russians are so awesome they use cruise missiles for CAS.

    I didnot said they dont have cruise missiles. they just run out of PGMs dealing with Libya. and that slow grinding compgain bankrupted EU.

    Comprehensive air campaign against ANYTHING.

    Last time Russia took on an air defence system was tactical bombing against Germany in WWII.

    so Russians are innovators they dont need to learn from others. They are going to implement TVC and ultra long range BVR weopons across the lineup.

    You don’t understand my point. Point is Poland will glady commit to US led expeditionary warfare to ensure continued US alliance.

    Australia does this as well by the way.

    Poland can commit but it does not mean US is going to commit to Poland. same thing happened to Georgia. Austrialia can commit as long as some one is buying its iron ore.

    in reply to: Why China's air power does not seem threatening. #2249572
    JSR
    Participant

    All this is irrelevant to the following facts:

    1. USSR deployed Soviet MiG-21 regiment (135th) to show the Egyptians how to fight against Israelis.
    2. In a massed dog fighter on 30/07/13, 16 IDF/AF aircraft (4 F-4, 12 Mirage III) engage 24 Soviet MiGs. 5 Soviet MiGs are shot down and only 1 Mirage damaged.

    Quite humiliating for Soviets.

    MIG-21 is short range fighter. you cannot expect much more than that against trained F-4. you pick one instance and make claims about it. so now your going to extrapolate MIG-31BM performance against F-16 from MIG-21 fight against F-4?

    Georgian military was about 18,000 strong (with 2,000 deployed to Iraq).

    Russian forces were 19,000 backed up by 8,000 South Ossettians and Abkhazians. They had a 2:1 advantage in armour.

    Even if your figure are true. you need 3 to 1 advantage and in mountanous area much more to defeat comprehensively. it is not some big advantage.

    Russians had complete numerical superiority with multiple regiments of SU-24/-25/-27/Tu-22M compared to Georgia with 10 or so Su-25s as well as large army aviation and ballistic missile support (an Iskander strike wiped out a third of Georgia’s armour when a base was hit by it).

    Those were deployed much late and without regard to any intelligence.

    Already discussed:

    Poor C3I
    Poor infantry performance
    Poor logistical performance
    Poor suppression of enemy AD (e.g. you lost a Tu-22)
    Etc etc etc

    still Georigian wind up in 3 days in much harder terrian. I guess with same weopons Poland will be defeated in two days.

    Given Russia views the whole of the Caucasus as it’s own sphere of influence and was worried about NATO encroachment via Georgia, it’s clear that Georgia and South Ossetia were important.

    Russia alot of places as important. It does not mean every thing can be equiped and trained at same time.

    If you can’t keep tabs on potential enemy’s military capability and plan on neutralising it, then that’s poor planning.

    Especially when that enemy is a neighbouring country with which you have already had altercations with and who is chumming up with your number 1 enemy, the USA.

    There are so many other countries. Russia can always smash Georgia so no need to keep tab. You only keep tab on things where you expect some competitive fight.

    You know Iraq smashed Kuwait in 3 days too and Kuwait had a better airforce, AD system and army than Georgia.

    And then the Iraqis got steamrollered and their once proud military obliterated.

    Kuwait was flat ground and almost entire Iraq force went down there. You make small instance and extra polate.

Viewing 15 posts - 2,956 through 2,970 (of 4,319 total)