JSRthere is no problem with funding.
what A-100 ? it’s not even developed yet and won’t be for at least 5 years. not to mention it makes no sense for IAF to buy a different type.
so there is unlimited funding? and it will take not less than 5 years to complete a refurbished IL-76 airframe that will be vastly inferior to FBW IL-476 with Glass cockpit. A-100 is only realistic option for IAF for high powered AWACS that is fully funded.
There is no A330/B787 AWACS. I am not sure there is technical resources for such conversion. and the rest are not same category.
It sure does make more sense than MMRCA
JSRMay not be available right now, otherwise why cut 1 Phalcon off from the planned 3 additional orders ?
Maybe they could afford two now instead of 3. or they are more capable than the previous one.
India will be better served by ordering A-100 now just like PAK-FA.
JSRCost of living in Russia will be higher than that in India or China. Plus, India has had an all volunteer force for a longer time and hence has worked out that system. Russia AFAIK has recently transitioned to something similar so it will take time. There is also the social factor, don’t know about Russia, but soldiering is a good career move and seen as very respectable throughout India, especially in areas which have not seen mass adoption of high margin service industries (and hence easy, lucrative jobs).
5G fighter needs 5G salaries for Instructors/Airmen/Pilots/Commanders. (This is not MIG-21r)and better these salaries starts from very basic level when person enters service at age 16. because spending early life on low pay induces culture of corruption & lack of motivation for learning. As person gets older. Even if you increase the pay it wont matter.
you can pretty much figure out from Aeroflot/AirIndia current condition as these are end products of the system. Pay raise come before purchase of expensive equipment.
JSRThis is most important in attracting talent. It will make Russia apart from other large third world countries like China/India.
http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20111108/168524798.html
Russian service members to earn almost as much as NATO counterparts
JSRActually I don’t know … but I also don’t know why the early F-15/-16 can’t be reengined with PW and/or GE engines and later can do ! As such there would be some changes necessary which make that possible for the later ones – similar to the J-11B, J-15 and J-10B (maybe) – but not to the early J-10 and J-11.
Deino
You have to consider There is atleast 30% weight gain from F-16A to late F-16C. and almost 33% weight gain from F-15C to F-15SG/F-15K.
These late model F-15 are in 20ton class fighters. long life of these F-16/F-15 came at expense of huge weight increase. The older models F-16/F-15 are simply not suitable for heavier newer engines.
what Chinese are doing at most is swapping engines of light weight airsuperiroty fighter.
There is no evidence that WS-10 engine can deal with much heavier Su-30MK with external loads.
JSRFor inland strike, the mission is even more favoring the heavier Su33. Assuming the CVG keeps a 200kms distance from coast, and striking 100kms inland. A Su33 with 5.7 tons internal fuel and 4 AAMs + 6 X500kg + 2X1000kg A2G munitions to achieve the mission, while a Mig29K can only do it 4 AAMs + 5X 500kg A2G munitions with 4.1 tons internal fuel.
Chinese J-15 can lift so much when Its lighter J-11 cannot lift closer to Su-27SM.
Su-33 weighs 18.5tons. 5.7ton fuel, 4AAM (800kg), 3000kg+2000kg= 6000kg weopon load. It is closer to 30 ton MTOW
MIG-29K 5.2ton internal fuel, 5 weight stations. (5*1000kg)+ 4AAM. can surely strike at distance of 300Km. as unrefuelled radius is 1000km.
But there can be more MIG-29K carried on medium size carrier than Su-33. So strike and flexibility of MIG-29K is much more than Su-33.
JSRUnfortunately it does not but i would check that from different location later.
Kudrin was not fired becuase he BS or something like that , he was fired because he publicly made known his differences with Medvedev and that too in a 3rd country ( in US ) , it was impossible for him to remain in the cabinet with such statement , either Medvedev or Him had to go , its very obvious who would go.
Kudrin was infact a good finance minister and like any finance minister he was very conservative , no finance minister wants to see a deficit in budget and least no one wants to see a deficit due to defence budget , he did and said what he thought was right but he was too naive or too frustrated to speak up openly , Putin praised him and said he would see him employed when he becomes president perhaps as consultant or personal advisor.
No one make public statement unless he knows he is gone for good. There will be improvement to implementation of all those arm contracts.
Yes the oil prices have been higher then what was projected in the budget , the only time it went low below budget projection when the world was in recession.
Russia economy is growing but its not growing like China or India economy at 8 to 10 % , i beleieve this year it will grow at 4 % and it couple of years it will be at 5 % , from my memory.
BTW check the budget figures for oil and actual oil prices for past couple of years and you would see what i am trying to say , IIRC this year the budget projected prices for oil is pegged at $105 but the Ural blend is trading much higher
I look at you graphs. It does not tell what economic growth will create how much tax revenue. As i mentioned Oil is only one of factor. and this year avg is not higher than $105 but Budget surplus is much higher. The fundamentals of economy has changed. much lower GDP growth and lower Oil prices is creating much more Tax revenue.
China/India has higher growth but quality of GDP growth is much lower. Higher inflation relative to Wage growth, too much debt creation, far less foreign reserves relative to imports. and alot of wastefull and duplication of projects in Military. India/China future will be much worse than Japan.
The point i am making is Russia can afford Olympics ($50B), Apec ($15B), WorldCup($50B), Glonass Civillian componenet ($11B). These are all discretionary projects without creation of debt and in World worst economic crises.
Building 8 to 10 carriers are not out of Russia financial ability. especially if they cut Armed forces total by another 100,000. which will happen with time.
JSRYou know Oil Contributes to 40 % of Budget Revenue and still remains a critical contributing factor in Russian Budget and will remain so for a long time , there is plans to move away from it in the next 2 decade and reduce it to 15 %.
The budget surplus may be becuase the oil revenue is higher then projected number for budget , so the budget deficit is close to zero and perhaps next year will remain the same.
Yes there are other modes of making economic growth , but remember the spending is very high for this decade on many fields including defence , so deficit will grow no matter whats the growth.
Those 20 % debtnumbers are well studied and projected number it wont change much , but if it remains under 20 % it will be an achievement. Putin certainly didnt bring those numbers from thin air its a well studied and i think its practical , 20 % debt is still impressive if achieved when many countries have greater then 60 % of debt. Sorry those links dont work for me 🙁
BTW we should not discuss Economy on this thread and should keep focus on naval matters
Clink the link again or copy and paste. it works.
It is clear that fomer FN was BS and for that he was fired. giving wrong predictions and slow release of money for defence projects.
here is another one
http://www.siamdailynews.com/world-news/europe-news/2011/09/01/russias-budget-surplus-in-h1-exceeds-62-bln-usd/
You should chose one side of argument. First you claimed that budget is balanced on $105. and now you claiming that budget is surplus due to higher Oil price. but avg prices this year are not higher than $105 and even if it are higher it is higher by few dollars on avg. it simply cant create such scale of surplus without quality of economic growth and massive pre-election spending.
JSRThose numbers for deficit wont change today because Kudrin is not the FM , its a government projection of deficit and it wont change becuase we have a new FM.
If you have huge spending you will have deficit becuase you end up borrowing , this year Budget deficit is quite low but it all depends on how oil prices behave in coming years , the current budget is calculated at oil prices $105 dollar.
20 % Deficit as percentage of GDP is still fine if they can achieve it.
Oil is one factor of revenue. The other is quality of economic growth
those were government projection in 2010. Everything changed in 2011. see the Sberbank statement
This year Russia is going to end with world largest budget surplus.
http://www.prospect.com.ru/en/articles/primetass/statistics__russia_s_consol_budget_surplus_at_2_358_tln_rbl_jan.html
Statistics: Russia’s consol budget surplus at 2.358 tln rbl Jan–Aug
JSRI’ve been in a few deserts. Even hiked in ’em. Dry hot places are a lot easier to deal with than severe cold, ice & snow. I’ve also been a long way north, up mountains as far as permanent snow (& hiked in that in summer, & skied in winter), & to many countries in all but one of the continents. I’ve lived & worked in a few countries, in two continents. :diablo: What was it you were saying about geography?
I didn’t come to any conclusion. I didn’t need to. There’s a lot of published date & analysis available. The detailed stuff costs money (it’s valuable to people in the industry), but there’s enough free information to find the outlines. Russia is a high cost producer. It’s not a matter of debate.
Also, one of my uncles is a professor (now mostly retired) of petroleum geology. Before becoming an academic he worked in Saudi Arabia for many years, & continued working as a consultant after taking up his post at Tokyo university. Very helpful on such matters. He’s published in English as well as Japanese, & I’ve read some of his work.
About skills: notice anything about Libya? All the foreign specialists left in February. Most oil production stopped because of the fighting. There was damage to installations, both deliberate & accidental. Oil production was resumed before the war was over, back up to 25% of its peak by the end of the war, & increasing very fast. Libyans could & did repair damage & get everything re-started, without any foreign specialists. The Saudis et al all have far fewer than they used to, & don’t need any for day to day running. They’ve been producing oil for over 60 years. You think they’ve learned nothing in all that time?
You misunderstood me about the buffer. Foreign workers are a buffer for social unrest. Income falls, foreign workers lose their jobs, not locals – and foreigners without a job have to leave.
Now, can we get back to the topic?
I am sure you know the difference of living a primitive life in snow/ desert. in Cold regions if you have water, wood and coal you can pretty much survive. thats how Northern hemisphere become so dominant for so long.
but it becomes whole different matter with shopping malls, airconditioned transportation, imported food, extensive security apparatus and medical institues in desert environment. Sustaining mega cities in desert is plan stupidity but Arabs need it to attract foreign specialists.
.http://www.homelandsecurityresearch.com/2008/05/saudi-oil-industry-security-market-2009-2014/
Most of University Professors cannot see the big picture as Phd is very narrow field.. so your Uncle research is practically irrelevant to actual cost of Oil.
If Russia is high cost producer so from where such Tax revenue is coming from Oil & Gas?. Just the public works on Sochi may well be several times London Olympics. All these public spending without creating budget deficit point to extremely low cost of production of primary resource.
Now we can go back to topic as you simply dont have idea of low cost Oil producer.
JSRThe without increasing GDP to debt part is not true , the current GDP/Debt ratio is suppose to rise to 11 % , by 2020 the plan is to keep the debt to GDP ratio below 20 % link
As far as military spending goes its 20 Trillion Rouble ( $655 billion ) for procurement and 3 trillion rouble ( $98 billion ) for MIC ,total of 23 trillion roubles.
Civilian Aviation budget for next 10 years is 5 trillion roubles ( $165 billion dollar ) link
Your first link estimates are from 2010 when Kudrin was BS about deficit number. and there was no Arabspring.
It was Kudrin that was predicting deficit for 2011 which is not going to happen. It was him that was slow to release money for projects.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-05/12/content_12494146.htm
Putin promises to pay arms makers up front
JSRRussia is not the lowest cost producer. It’s a high cost producer. The number of foreign specialists makes very little difference to the cost of production. Equipment is the biggest part of production costs. & transport across difficult country adds significantly to them. Deep, offshore, arctic, mature, & geologically complicated fields are the most expensive to produce from. The Saudis have easy geology, an easy environment – everything easy – and therefore cheap. Same for Iraq, except for politics, & the UAE.
Relying on the discretionary spending of your competitors to support the price of your exports is a risky strategy. The Saudis have the option of producing more to capture more of the market, if they can’t maintain prices, & have a big buffer of foreign workers they can send home. Russia has to have high prices, or it produces at a loss.
how you came to this conclusion who is the low cost producer and who has more Oil? or you can eyeball geography and completely ignore the skill level of population. I am not sure you understand geography. Remember desert lacks water and have unbearable heat for human living.
Sberbank has among the world highest profits ($1B per month) and least exposure to bad debts. They surely do know before releasing such statement. and based on these forecasts Russia can afford to spend $650B on Military procurement and $200B on Aviation support in less than 10 years without increasing debt to GDP from current level. There is no point in starting half baked projects and cut it down in the mid path.
Those skilled specialist were cheap in past when rest of world was not competing for best of talent. Now those high salaries are available everywhere from Brazil to Azerbaijan to Kazakhisan I would not be surpized at all when there is complete exodus of skilled specialists from these Arab countries There is no buffer for skilled people Only buffer is for house maids.
Behind this façade of stability there is huge cost involved. http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=O8jyck32kxY
JSRRussia debt to GDP ratio in 2011 is same as it was in 2008. So practically zero impact on public finances. while there is massive delveraging of private sector as government bailed it out.
Unemployment rate in 2011 is the same as it was in 2007. Real estate prices are back at the same peak level as it were in early 2008. without real estate prices there cannot be any money for City governments. Wages growth is well above previous peak. bond yields are way lower.
It is not country that is short of money. rather money spending is creating inflation. not Japanese style deflation.
There is another $11b for Glonass
http://rt.com/news/prime-time/glonass-alternative-gps-development-123/
GLONASS’s immense budget to crack American GPS
JSRI also don’t expect a worldwide collapse, but if one does occur, China & India won’t be exempt. Both, & particularly China, are dependent on exports to maintain their economies. If their customers collapsed, they’d be very badly affected.
BTW, what proportion of Russian energy exports are to China & India, & what proportion of the rest could be diverted? If demand from Europe & North America collapsed, Russian terms of trade (the price for its exports) would be badly hit. Russia’s a relatively high cost producer, compared to, e.g., Saudi Arabia, & a lot of its exports aren’t very flexible. Gas pipelines to Europe can’t suddenly be diverted to China or India.
It isn’t as simple as you suggest.
world wide economic collapse whether happens or not. it is pretty much irrelevant as far Russia economic as long as fire is light up under suadi king arsse. I am expecting $40b of cash budget surplus this year alone. Russia is the lowest cost producer as its industry have the lowest percentage of foreign specialist.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/saudi-social-spending-to-support-russia-for-years-sberbank-says.html
Saudi Social Spending to Support Russia for Years, Sberbank Says
JSRI am not sure what world wide economic collapse has anything to do with Russia Carrier.
by the time first carrier construction starts. most of SSBN/SSN fleet will be modernized. so more money and people will be available.
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