what does this statment mean? It is Volga saying that there is not enough demand inside Russia both in government and private companies so they are suggesting it into EU countries who are waiting for A400m.
The product is simply uncompetitive. there is no ringing endorsement of the product.
Although its payload and range are smaller, Volga-Dnepr regards it as a “younger brother” to the four-engined jet, says [Volga-Dnepr group commercial director] Gliznoutsa. He suggests that European nations waiting for the delayed Airbus A400M may be interested in chartering the type.
When you look at this one posted by Austin. Software development for production of An-70 will skid. Without that software development of production. It cannot enter production. Unless Russia announces that it has thrown out Ukraine from the project and UAC starts doing all the software work on team centers. Unless that stage arrives. it will be hand built paper plane without meeting any of its specification.
And until a final decision on a batch production plant in Russia, the software development required for production of the Russian plane will skid.
Where to start?
Il-76 has its own, uncontested market? Really? Tell me, how many new-built Il-76 have been delivered in the last decade? :diablo:
Dont believe on non sense that IL-76 are built leftover airframes. All IL-76 with PS-90 engines are new built. infact the IL-476 initial some of the parts will come from Tashkent factory. There 3 AEW A-50 for IAF and alteast 4 AEW for PLAAF. so it is atleast 7 AWACS conversion. No one else has engineering expertize to convert these giants. How many AEW has EADS converted on this scale. Atleast one A-50U upgrade flying.
IL-76 has pretty solid market which is pretty much uncontested and nich.
http://www.heavyliftpfi.com/content/newsitem.aspx?rf=1&id=2120
n his report, Isaikin outlined the scope of Volga-Dnepr’s presence in the global air cargo market, achieved through active use of AN-124-100 Ruslan and IL-76 maindeck aircraft, reinforcing the group’s commitment to continue to increase its use of these aircraft. This is confirmed by an order for 40 new AN-124 and 20 new IL-76 aircraft that has been placed with United Aircraft Corporation of Russia (UAC).
An AESA antenna of 1 ton really is no big deal, on an airliner. The Erieye antenna is about 900 kg. Look at the size of the aircraft it’s mounted on. Fighter radar antennae have CG implications, because of their position, & fighters have to do a lot more than carry a radar. The radar is a tool to enable them to do their main tasks. For an AEW aircraft, the radar & C&C suite is everything. It carries no bombs, no missiles.
I am only talking in relations with A-50. The antenna structure of A-50 i read is atleast 5 tons for regular one. AESA weight will be over the top of it. Try to put 6 tons Antenna on top of SAAB-2000/EMB-145.
AWACS is not just C&C but looking at both and air ground targets at extended range. It is C&C control for combined air & ground forces. thats why Ruaf head has said that A-100 has support of Joint staff. Smaller AWACS dont have that range and imaging capability for ground troops at extended ranges.
Raw power & size of antenna is important, but it is not the only thing that counts. If it did, why upgrade the A-50? Sophistication of software, processing power, etc. are all important. Nor does aircraft performance in itself make one system better than another. It helps, but the radar system is more important.
When every thing else equal raw power and antenna counts.
Installed thrust most definitely is not the main factor! You seem to believe that because some fighters have more thrust than some AEW aircraft, that makes the AEW aircraft useless against them. Tell me, do you know what a radar does? 😀
5G fighters are practically making these smaller AWACS obsolete with all there net centric and AESA power capabilities. 5G fighters have crusing speed, altitude and power advantages and AESA module is small enough for there flat noses. They also do come with even longer range missiles.
This is not time to create a smaller AWACS as far as Ruaf is concerned.
A380 is no longer consuming much Airbus engineering resources, & what it is is mainly production engineering, not design & development. The Chinese production line consumes only production engineering resources, & I think not very much of them, now. The Chinese do most of the work. It’s delivered over 50 A320s now. BTW, EADS has a very large pile of cash which it’s looking for productive ways to invest. Experience with a small radome on the C-295 could be leveraged into a larger one, y’know. 😉
50 over two years. A-320 based on bulk of imported parts that need to flown on expensive transport. There is great chance this venture will be closed down as Chinese labor charges explode.
It loses money compared to built in EU as production number is too small. A-320 is not high value 787 that can recoup its transported part charges.
EADS simply dont have money for large scale AWACS works unless they want another bail out from EU tax payers.
@flanker.
Capability and effectiveness of C4ISTAR on an open forum? I think you know the answer to that
As for cost, various sources give the UK workshare as around 20%, whilst our investment is around $2bn of the total expected $40bn investment and total buy of $200bn for 2400 aircraft. You can find various different figures but for the sake of argument here I have used wikipedia
Thus UK workshare might b expected to be 20% of ($200bn+$40bn)=$48bn
Now your guess is as good as mine about how many we will buy, but if we use the 150 figure then we might expect that to cost us
150 *£200bn/2400 = $12.5bn plus the investment of $2bnAssuming the 2012 rate of corporation tax for main business of 25%, that gives $12bn. Now I know they would not pay corp tax on all of that, but tax will be paid on salaries, sub-contracts etc that will probably exceed that (as income tax & NI are at higher rates for example).
Thus overall, the UK will earn more in tax from F-35 than it will cost.
Whereas for Super-hornet or rafale, UK workshare would realistically be minimal.
So $48b is the total revenue expected from JSF by UK. but it will happen over 30 to 40 years. and there is no guarantee it will happen due to uncertainity of budgets and development of alternatives down the line.
So at best $1.2b revenue stream a year. and there could be no profits in this revenue streams.as profits depend on alot of factors such as exchange rates.
but question is how much dedicated trained manpower that will make $1.2b happen. There is fixed number of technical people in aviation industry of each country. if they are contributing to JSF they may lose out on other projects.
I am pretty skeptical about this libya oil. ever since this conflict start since last January. Brent price moved up by 40%. this pretty much eliminated any economic growth in France/UK for past two quarters. the principal countries behind removing gaddfly. at most where Irak stands today. libya will be there in 5 years interms of production.
In fairness, the SSJ does look to be well on the way to establishing such a network. The reason why this won’t help the Il-476 is how Sukhoi is going about creating it – they are tapping into existing Western MRO businesses and distributors by persuading them to include the Superjet in their portfolio. So in fact the infrastructure and connections are NOT built from scratch because this has effectively been outsourced, and to take advantage Ilyushin would have to convince these partners that Il-476 support would be profitable too. Given how poor market appeal outside Russia is going to be though, chances are the MROs (on whom, unlike the Russian MoD apparently, its shortcomings will not be lost) would take one look and say thanks, but no thanks.
An Il-96 Westernised for the export market on the basis of the Il-96T (*completed* FAA certification in 1999!) could at least benefit partially from existing maintenance infrastructure for its Western avionics and engines.
It does look like Sukhoi & UAC product decisions will be influenced by Volga. and IL-476 is one of it.
http://www.volga-dnepr.com/eng/presscentre/releases/?id=5734
Volga-Dnepr Technics signs maintenance services agreement for Sukhoi Superjet-100
Volga-Dnepr Technics has established line maintenance stations in Moscow at Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo airports, in Ulyanovsk, Krasnoyarsk, and also in Sharjah (United Arab Emirates) and Leipzig (Germany). Sharjah is one of the company’s major sites where it is currently constructing a new 20,000 square metre hangar to extend its MRO services.
What demand for engines will Il-76 create? How? Do you mean upgrades? Given the age of most Il-76s, I don’t expect a large-scale re-engining. It won’t be economic.
you dont expect based on what?. You were not expecting 950 production either.
Ruaf has included upgrades for IL-76. and IL-476 variations will use engine PD-14 in later version.
IL-76 has its own market. which is pretty much uncontested for decades to come.
Different class = smaller, that’s all. They aren’t less sophisticated. A330 AWACS with an existing radar & C&C suite would not take 15 years, or ten. It’d be like the E-767. Developing a complete new system from scratch would take longer, but that is not what the disagreement is over.
No one is stupid to pay for A330 with obsolete radar and less capability. I said there is practically zero engineering resources and finananical strength at Airbus to convert into AWACS. Airbus already in deep whole in A400m, A-380, and Chinese assembly line.
Elta, Airbus & Raytheon bid for the Australian Wedgetail contract, BTW, based on the A310. Boeing & Northrop Grumman won, with an all-new & very innovative system. It was years late – but even so, completed in well under 15 years. The delays were with the radar, not the airframe integration.
Wedge is smaller than A-50EI. so less capability. Wedgetail has 6500km range. Current A-50 at 7500km with 30 year old engines.
Whether AESA or non-AESA is no big deal. As I said, SAAB-Ericsson has integrated Erieye (look up what type of radar that is) on three different airframes, & the TOTAL development cost is less than you’re claiming it’ll cost to put an already developed system on an already developed airframe. ELTA & Airbus expect to spend a small fraction of what you suggest on integrating a variant of the EL/M-2085, in a significantly different configuration from that already in service, on a new airframe. Your figures have no basis whatsoever.
AESA & Non-AESA are big deal when your dealing with such huge Antenna. In fighter radar AESA version may be heavier by 100kg but for AWACS it could be 1 ton. AESA radars are heavy and two to three times more effective with more functionality.
The non-afterburning thrust of a 5G fighters are more than thrust provided by SAAB-2000/E-2/C-295 and nearly equal to Wedgetail sytem. These turboprop has lower curising ceiling.
They are pretty much worthless in terms of effectivenes against 5G fighter radar systems.
Future A-100 will be atleast 68 to 76 tons of combined thrust so effectivness of system will be way higher than any comparable fighter or AWACS. It is the raw power & size of antenna that counts.
When you look at news item. Radar development is finished.
They are waiting 3 years for IL-476 but they are never going to put this radar on curent Tu-204/IL-96 which are still produced one or two a year.
It seems it is same template as A-50EI as usually it takes lee than two years or so for Elta to complete the work on A-50EI after delivery from Bereiv.
http://www.ruaviation.com/news/2011/8/10/462/
New A-100 airborne warning and control system aircraft (AWACS) will be created in Russia, Lenta.ru reports. It has been stated by the Commander in Chief of the Russian air forces, General-Colonel Alexander Zelin. “We have a full support of Joint Staff Chief and financial support too. We should create this vehicle by 2016, we will have the carrier in 2013-2014”, – the Commander in Chief noted.The development of antenna and radar for new AWACS aircraft has already been completed. “It is a different radar as compared to А-50, with an active phased antenna array. The aircraft will be able to trace air and ground targets”, – said Zelin. A modified Il-476 aircraft equipped with PS-90 engines will be used as a carrier. It will provide a longer range than А-50.
IL-476 and reengining of IL-76 will add vast opportunities for PS-90/PD-14.
I have read Pogo interview in MAKS. The minimum estimate of IL-476 is 150.
add to that upgrade of 100 to 200 IL-76. you have big production run. IL-476 production run will continue for multiple decades.
IL-76 will create alot of demand for engines. Brazil is not commited to KC-390 to same extent in quantities. IL-476 will be 100% Russian and operated by Russian transport firms. who had the experiance in this business model. KC-390 at most 30% Brazil. with no commericial prospects.There is practically no comparision between two programs.
E-767 is not an AESA radar. It is same obsolete Pulse doppler sytem of current upgrade A-50M. integrating a giant AESA anetenna is different thing with full Command and control, ground survellance.
Erieye/C-296/G550 are entirely in different class than upcoming A-100.
you wont see A-330 AWACS. in less than 15 years if development starts today and at the price no one will afford and it will consume what ever engineering resources Airbus has left and will have negative impact on all other products.
I can tell you exactly what kind of analysis they probably did, let’s look at what would happen if the Il-476 was cancelled in favour of the An-70 and Il-96. More specifically, what would happen to *Ilyushin* in particular, without considering how it would benefit the Russian/Ukrainian industry and military *over all*.
As a reasonable and realistic guess I could see scope for about 40 to 50 additional Il-96 airframes spread over a variety of buyers. Around 10 AWACS and 20 tankers for the Russian air force, some 10 further civilian freighters for one or two airline customers, and perhaps another 10 military exports to two or three foreign air forces.
Quite a conservative estimate and it still compares pretty well with the 38 cargo Il-476s ordered so far when you consider that this is probably as far as the latter will ever go. No civilian sales or military exports of the freighter version are likely unless the An-70 is cancelled, BUT of course you then have to add any tanker and AEW derivatives for the Russian air force (i. e. another ~ 30) to this number. That right there is the reason why Ilyushin seems perfectly willing to let their own Il-96 die in favour of an inferior solution – they get a bigger piece of the secure (domestic) airlift/AEW/tanker pie this way.
The only surprising thing about it is really that the Russian government is allowing themselves to get fleeced so indifferently – they should cancel the Il-476 and tell Ilyushin to accept Il-96 production or go pound sand. Helping a struggling industry is fine if it leads them back to competitiveness in the long run, but the government is not a charity that should fund lemons because it means a short term improvement in the company bottomline. Especially not when that results in giving the military inferior equipment and starves other, more promising projects of money.
There was certainly a circumstantial alignment of interests between the government and Ilyushin when Ukraine seemed intent on joining NATO in 2005, but that should no longer be an excuse.
All your speculating of this and that. of An-70/IL-96 without even showing large scale order that will make it economical or even progress of certification for particular
purpose. Even ignoring that even Ukraine has practically abandoned funding. How you figure out some thing is lemon?
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1657208.php/Russian-arms-firm-expect-more-than-20-billion-dollars-in-orders
New major equipment to be acquired for Russian military fliers include 450 attack and transport helicopters, 20 strike jets, 100 Il-76 transport planes and 10 An-124 heavy cargo planes, the Interfax news agency reported
There are 3 more IL-76 from Tashkent Plant coming to Volga in addition to the 3 new already . These people are in business they know what they are buying. 2 each were manufactured for recently to Jordan./Azerbaijan. 3 AEW for India. This is pretty decent run with PS-90 engines for IL-76. I am not sure about IL-78 whether they are using PS-90. . I would say minimum will be 20 AWACS and 40 Tankers.
10 AWACS simply not sufficient as some of them will be down for maintainance. 20 AWAC & 40 Tankers is more reasonable.
. This 100 does not include A-100 that will start from 2016.
Total production is 950. 120 were exported outside CIS countries. So that 552 production claim is BS.
http://www.uacrussia.ru/ru/models/transport/il_76/history/
The jokers in Antonov are implementing PLM team center in 2011. They have very long way to go in manufacturing big transport in digital format. I will give them a decade. UAC have other projects like MS-21 to design. And possibly An-124. The chances of manufacting An-70 in digital format is not good. And without digital format there will be a lot of quality and reliability problems.
Except that lack of a worldwide support network for the PS-90A was and is a major part of the reason why the Il-96 and Tu-204 have failed to win substantial commercial orders. The same issue affects the Il-76 and will also affect the Il-476 – ask yourself why the vast majority of Il-76s in operation today were acquired second-hand from old Aeroflot and air force stocks.
IF the Il-76/476 did have an advantage in this respect you’d have a point, but actually they’re in practically the same situation as the Il-96 and An-70. Everything you said about the latter here applies just as much to the Il-76/476 – don’t be fooled by the large fleet of USED airframes as swerve has alluded to.
Think again.
early PS-90 are not good enough for reliablity and fuel efficiency. so cost of upgrade was not worth over D-30 upgrades.
now with PS-90A2/A3 and PD-14. there will be improvement.
It is not lack of network alone. Now after more than a decade of operation. they have certian degree of confidence. there was no production capacity for new built IL-76. now they are building it for decades to come. big investment.
Exactly. Rough field capabilities for refuellers and AEW are useless.
Designing new AWACS takes billions and can add atleast a decade of certification. Not to mention taking crictical design resources from other projects. The people who are doing have done this analysis. THere is zero chance of An-70 and IL-96 AWACS.
1000 built? The only production list I’ve ever seen lists 552 Il-76/78 (all variants).
Most of those built went to the Soviet Air Force & Aeroflot. Commercial viability was not a factor. Soviet exports were priced without regard to production cost. Sometimes, they were practically given away, & sometimes priced for hard currency profit, without factoring in rouble costs.
It’s currently commercially viable only if the cost of acquisition is a very small fraction of production cost, & even then only for low-frequency operations & special purpose cargo ops.
Most of the lifetime cost of a commercial aircraft is operating costs. Il-76 operating costs per ton-kilometre are very high. Maintenance is very labour-intensive. Fuel costs are very high indeed. For airline operations, this makes it a guaranteed money-loser.
The military are less concerned about operating costs (but don’t ignore them completely), & have special needs, for which the Il-76 was designed – but designed a long time ago, & that shows in several ways. As you keep being told, & keep ignoring, the cabin cross-section is small. This is important.
A400M, An-70 & C-2 are the size they are because the customers (& in the case of the An-70 that was originally the Soviet Air Force) specified it. They wanted a particular cabin cross-section.
The Il-76 was found to be too restrictive in the 1980s: a fatter fuselage was wanted. Hence An-70. That requirement hasn’t changed. Russia can get away with Il-76 because its military has shrunk & it has An-124s left over from the former larger force, just as the USAF can get away with C-130J because it has a lot of C-17s. But An-124 is oversize & too expensive to run for a standard transport. An An-70/An-124 mix would probably cover heavy lift requirements rather well, An Il-76/An-124 mix is inefficient & unsatisfactory.
Remember: cargo box! All discussions of military freighters which ignore that are pointless. It’s absolutely crucial.
Embraer is not using turboprops because commercial jet engines are more easily supported worldwide. Using them compromises short & rough field performance (the reason why turboprops were specified for A400M), but that’s thought a worthwhile trade-off.
Commerical jet engines are easily supported world wide and that is the exactly the reason IL-476 & MTA are not turboprop. so why put An-70 in different category?. upfront acg, develop, support, upgrade are as important as fuel efficiency.
IL-76 is commerical success because its supply chain gave enough money to concerns like Saturn and they manage to get large engine & maintainance contracts for past two decades. certain things you have to look at bigger picture.
An-70/A400M are doomed for begining. building 40 or 50 aircraft over 20 years will have very negative impact on supply chain profitability. There is market of IL-76 capability.
http://www.polet.ru/en/cargo/fleet
IL-76 is very competitive and it is being used by world largest oversized cargo operator Volga-Dnpr. Infact they bought 3 new One. and they are going to get 20 more. and they say it is more competitive than C-130. They must have measured distances with relevant boxes. so you want to challenge the business acumen of this operator?
http://www.shippingonline.cn/news/newsContent.asp?id=14857
Soviet requirements are irrelevant. as even MIG-1.42 is discarded.
Only serious investment and work is on IL-76.
“A large amount of work has been done on launching the Il-76 into production,” says Pogosyan. “We continue working on reshaping the airplane and giving it new qualities that will keep it competitive for decades to come.
Bolded the important bit for you. That doesn’t say “due to technical difficulties”, does it? So, as I said, the problem is lack of commitment from the sponsoring governments, nothing else.
The fact no one believes on them make them wanting government funds. It is just not completing the testing but to have viable product in market that can return its initial investment.
For example A400m, A380 are not viable products. They will never return on money invested in them. IL-76 has 1000 built. Widely exported and just spares to export customers like China/India quite valuable with wide operational experience.
How? Power to weight is similar, OPR is similar, turbine inlet temperature is similar, stage counts are similar, fuel consumption is obviously excellent – you’re just making up imaginary arguments again.
U have to be skeptical about An-70 weight claim. Aeroflot is now finding out that Sukhoi SSJ engine is overweight.
You mean the A400M actually has less ferry range than the An-70? Apart from disagreeing with data from both manufacturers, that’s an odd argument, coming from you… If your reading comprehension (or is it that you’re wearing blinders?) is like this when researching the Il-96 and An-70 it would go a long way toward explaining your opinions.
It is the reliability of data. To date no one can exactly figure out how many hr An-70 is tested. A400m has monthly tally.
Again. The Il-96 has an empty weight of around 115 tons. With 50 tons of payload and a MTOW of 270 tons, you get 105 tons of fuel. That 105 tons is enough to transport 50 tons of cargo over 10000km.
http://www.ifc-leasing.com/netcat_files/File/en/il-96-400t.pdf
50% more fuel for over 100% more range. With the same engines.
50% more fuel efficient?. 105 tons fuel carrying 50 tons to 10,000km. IL-76 carries 50ton to 4600km on 70 ton fuel. but IL-76 is not IL-476 which is 13 to 17% more fuel efficient. so 70 tons to about 5250km. and the same 70tons fuel will give 6800km for IL-96. but 35% more efficient does not tell the whole story. Civil airlines are more expensive to built.for materials and aerodynamic shape.
A330 is not cheaper than C-17 despite A330 has 6 times more production.
And it take very long time to convert them AWACS when your dealing with high powered AESA with full C&C capabilities.. Look at time line of Boeing for 737. I am fully convinced of business case for IL-476.
The An-70 has an empty weight of around 66 tons. With 47 tons of cargo and a MTOW of 145 tons, you have 32 tons left for fuel. That 32 tons of fuel gives you a range of 3000km. 55% less fuel for just 35% less range, essentially same payload.
How do u know empty weight of An-70. Is it in commercial operations. What is flight cycles of the airframe?. how reliable are the engines and systems. Engines of IL-476 are PS-90.
Which ever way you look at it, both the Il-96 and the An-70 completely slaughter the Il-76/476 in terms of fuel efficiency. And that’s with conservative assumptions for the former two in terms of OEW and MTOW, i. e. assuming the highest realistic fuel loads for them to be as kind as possible to the Il-476.
Can we now put this notion to bed once and for all that the Il-76TD-90, and by extension also the Il-476 with its identical aerodynamics and engines, is anything but an obsolescent flying barn door?
IL-476 is one generation advance than TD-90. It has FBW, New wing, lighter avionics and further improvement to engines, built on new manufacturing machines for longer life
Not in TAPO. As PS-90 are continuously improved over time. Remember only talks of An-70 are on schedule nothing concrete.
http://www.flightglobal.com/Features/russia-special/manufacturing/
And I just get the sense that the Il-476 is going to take at least as long (or at least that it would, if it was starved of funding as regularly as the An-70 is). It’s *already* two years late, in terms of service entry!
Your still not answering the point why it is starved of funding?. Why A400m is so expensive and why MTA & Embarrer not pursuing Turboprop.
If it was remotely close to completion or reliable. India would have chosen Antonov as Partner for its MTA project. Isnt a twin engine turboprop for 20ton cargo more fuel efficient option.
And as I said, prove to me that you’re not talking out of you posterior and I might consider such points. Suffice it to say, the An-140 is not the An-70 either.
An-140 had funding and it still fall apart. Now they are going to use Siemens PLM software. They are more than a decade behind where UAC stands in using digital format manufacturing. http://www.plm.automation.siemens.com/en_sg/about_us/success/case_study.cfm?Component=57503&ComponentTemplate=1481
I am very skeptical about arms embargo lifting by UN without democratic government. and with democracy various factions come down the line.
I’m sure you can prove the An-70 has a shorter service life than the Il-476 :rolleyes:
IL-76 is commerically in service and is viable aircraft. An-70 is paper aircraft. dont be fooled by its prototype flying. It is not meeting none of its design parameters. You dont do R&D for some thing nearing its production. The head of Volga-Denpr is one of designer of An-124. they know where Antonov stands. They have 14 IL-76 in service and they are going to get 20 to 30 IL-76. there is no commitment on this scale to An-70.
http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/eco/76447/
Ukraine’s economic news
Research, design work on An-70 could be delayed due to lack of funds from Ukraine, says Antonov head
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/06/18/357486/paris-russias-air-force-gets-real.html
The Ukraine-built Antonov An-70 transport, on which the Russian air force has blown hot and cold for several years, appears to have acquired a new lease of life, with Russia again backing the programme. However, Barrie says: “You just get the sense there’s an awful long way to go before you’ve got that aircraft ready to go into service.”
It is not. Despite a (small!) number of paper advantages such as a carbon fibre wing, drastic weight increases have wiped out any performance gains.
Small advantages. Just the avionics and engine tech in A400m is two generation advance than An-70.
Which is the reason why it has a longer ferry range than the An-70 when not carrying any cargo.
Longer ferry range on paper.
109500 litres of fuel weighs about 88 tons – are you disputing Ilyushin’s own data?
Large aircraft like these commonly have to trade off fuel and payload to stay within MTOW limits – the Il-476 will be no exception (and it’s 210 tons not 195 for the Il-76TF, which is what I used for the comparison). Take the Tu-160 as an extreme example, with full internal fuel it could not take off even with NO payload at all! The idea in this case is to take off with weapons and a reduced fuel load and then fill up by inflight refuelling.
Again. IL-76 has empty weight of 75tons. with 50 tons payload and 195 MTOW. You get 70 tons for fuel. That 70 tons fuel is enough to transport 50ton cargo through 4600km. it is right on Volg-denpr site.
Why? The aerodynamic shape will be exactly the same, and a few hundred kilograms (at most) of weight saving will never result in a 10 to 15% efficiency improvement. Ease of manufacture and increased service life were the reasons for modifying the wing structure.
In other words, you just made that up and hoped nobody would challenge it.
The sheer magnitude of the fuel burn advantage for the An-70 speaks for itself. If they were within 10 or 15% of one another you might have a point, but the actual numbers leave very little doubt as to which is better. In this regard the Il-96 comparison is very instructive because the An-70 takes advantage of similar aerodynamic concepts – even when you take the propulsion factor out of the equation, newer designs are substantially more efficient.
As i said service life and fue efficiency of An-70 are just on paper. It may even break carrying actual loads. One of An-140 recently broke.
http://www.volga-dnepr.com/eng/group/projects/l76_modern/
IL-76TD-90VD operation shows big demand for this aircraft and its promising utilization. In 2007 the IL-76 traffic volume grew by 46% as compared to 2006 and by 60% as in 2005 thus making $140 mln.; the two new aircraft performed 137 flights and carried over 2000 tons of cargo. Within three quarters of 2008 the IL-76TD-90VD traffic volume grew by 78% as compared to 2007.IL-76TD-90VD has no direct competitors among the commercial ramp freighters with capacity over 50 tons. By the aviation experts’ estimation the aircraft will retain its leading position up to at least 2020. The transportation cost of one-ton cargo on board the IL-76TD-90VD is twice as cheep as that on Hercules which is the only immediate foreign-made rival of IL-76TD.
All three A-50EI do not use the Il-476’s modified wing however, which will require static testing even without the addition of a radome.
A-50EI has proven that heavier antenna and engines can be carried. and there was 5 years of development work behind it. and put 7 years of developmnet work on top of that for IL-476. with acutal funds.