Actually, the Chinese fighter market would have been dominated by Western firms by now were it not for the embargo after 1989. Like every market in China, the quest is for things western.

We see it already in the airliner and helicopter space.

Remember, in the 1980s, China even gave up its Y10 airliner (a successful program with over 130 flights and three prototype) because its carriers want western.

The same would have happened in the fighter’s space if the western embargo was never put into place. The embargo is actually forcing China into supporting its own projects (as well as buying Russian.) Though you won’t see China dropping a project like the XXJ like it did with the Y10 even if the embargo were dropped.

But even with the embargo, Western aviation firms are still the greatest beneficiaries of the Chinese aviation boom (much more than Sukhoi) because the civilian side is always the bigger moneymaker.

The airliner and helicopter markets I already mentioned but even quasi-military projects like the Y12E, Y8F600 and MA60 (Y7) are major windfalls for Western aviation companies. All three use western composite propellers and PW turbofans. (1)

The military Y12s, Y8s and Y7s would probably use PW as powerplants too were it not for politics. But with the embargo, the Chinese engine and components makers at least have a market in the military.

So the embargo is both a bane and blessing. The bane, of course, is reliance on vastly inferior non-western technology. But the blessing is that the subsidiary firms of AVIC I & II would have been swamped by a Chinese preference for Western technology otherwise.

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Notes
(1) http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?prod=12613&session=dae.4750575.1093387615.QSvFX8Oa9dUAAGBNYho&modele=jdc_1
P&W’s PW150B Engine Selected for China’s Y8F600 Aircraft

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2003_March_20/ai_98996642
Dowty Propellers Awarded $160M Propeller System Contract

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200011/07/eng20001107_54594.html
“The MA 60 is the latest development of China’s long-running Y7 family of turboprop airliners and utility transport. It differs significantly from its predecessors through the addition of Pratt & Whitney PW127J turboprops with Hamilton Standard props, a Rockwell Collins cockpit avionics fit, and a more modern passenger cabin.”

Have been aware of Venik’s site for ages now Arthur, but how did he get to be such a target?

The bad rep on the web came mostly from Venik’s claims concerning US aircraft (F-15s) shot over the Balkans. The evience were very flimsy.

But that said, Venik’s descriptions of individual planes and weapons aren’t really that bad. He is obviously knowledgeable about Russian equipment.

The Chinese market for new aviation products.

1. large airliners: up to 2400 from Boeing or Airbus over the next two decades(1)

2. route feeder aircraft: another massive market; the ARJ-21 is expected to have a market of 500 in China(2); also the ERJ-145 (Embraer/Harbin) and the MA60 series are each expecting major sales (the MA60 orders for Chinese regionals are backlogged)

3. cargo and lift (growth compounded by moderniziation of Western China which is not currently linked by road or rail.) Western suppliers of the Y8F600’s powerplant and avionics are expecting 120 to be sold in China,

4. Possibly up to 10,000 helicopters for both civilian and military (2)

5. light fighter: the number of FC-1 needed by the PLAAF is quoted by sources from 150 to 1000; whatever the light fighter, the numbers needed to replace the older J-6s and J-7s would be in the hundreds;

6. medium fighters: Sukhoi officials believe that J-10 production could be up to 1500 according to a report by Richard Fisher (3)

7. Heavy fighters/strike craft: Sukhoi expects over another 150 Su-30s (MKK variants) for China (4)

8. the next generation advance trainer for the PLAAF will be in the hundreds; JL-9 and L-15.

Simply put, the most massive aviation market in the coming decades outside the US.

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Notes
(1) http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20040818wo12.htm
“Boeing also has plans to increase expenditure for airplane parts procured from China from 800 million dollars to 1.3 billion dollars by 2010, and is planning to penetrate the Chinese market, where there is expected to be a demand for 2,400 planes over the next 20 years.”

http://en-1.ce.cn/Industries/Aerospare/200407/29/t20040729_1358611.shtml
“European aviation group Airbus expects to obtain at least a 50 per cent share of the Chinese aviation market. Airbus believes that China will require an additional 1,500 large airplanes in the next two decades, becoming the world’s second largest market after the United States.”

(2)http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews/03nbaa/topsto26.htm
“China will need 1,000 commercial helicopters by the year 2010, some 2,000 between then and 2013, and a staggering 10,000 by 2020, according to the latest forecast from AVIC II, China’s major helicopter manufacturer.”

(3) Richard Fisher’s report was at http://www.uscc.gov/mair1.htm
We discussed it in this forum at http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=16815

“according to the officials at Sukhoi, China will get 1200 to 1500 J-10s and more importantly already has 300 Flankers”

(4)http://www.sptimes.ru/archive/times/997/news/b_13329.htm
“I estimate that China will need a further 150 fighters [Su-30MKK], which they could either buy or manufacture under a Russian license,” Makiyenko said.”