What version of the S-300 are we talking about? Or, in other words, is this a symbolic sale of rather outdated missiles that won’t, in reality, have the deterrent effect everyone seems to think they will?

Its a bit (well, more than a bit, if I’m honest) nonsensical to ask us to ‘built’ an air force for an imaginary country without answering some basic questions:

What’s the population of the country?
How’s the economy doing?
Who are the country’s allies?

And most important of all:

What threats is the country facing?

A country in danger of engaging in a conventional war with a neighbour of similar military capability will require a very different air force to one facing only internal threats or one which is a regional power. Why bother with lots of fast jets if your main threat are poorly armed separatists? Or, conversely, why buy medium or large transports if you share a land border with your one and only enemy?

Also, maintaining a large fighter force might be your dream but your population is small and poorly educated – in which case you’re going to be spending money on educating a whole new generation of pilots or you will have to resort to mercenaries.

Ink,

I guess the talk of potential threats in medium/long term is unimaginative because of assumption that NATO will continue to exist in the future.

NATO guarantees defence but it also limits action. Any offensive action against a neutral country could cause the offending party to be booted out of NATO, have sanctions placed on it and sabotage important economic links.

Of course the presence of NATO dampens the likelihood of conflict in a region. One need look no further than Turkey and Greece.

Obviously investment is required for the future, especially as Serbia isn’t part of NATO.

Certainly investment is required – and nobody disputes that – but at what cost? Also, investment is quite a broad term – investing in the future of Serbia’s armed forces could take different forms and result in different outcomes. At a time when the country is in dire economic straits it is even more necessary to scrutinise every expenditure in order to ensure that it is as effective as possible. The purchase of M2s for the airforce (financed by, need I remind you, raising debt from the same country supplying the airframes) does not fit my idea of effective investment – not by a long shot!

TR1,

I think an airbase in Serbia is among the last things Russia would want right now.

The Russians are certainly interested in maintaining some sort of presence in Serbia (although perhaps not an overtly military presence). That said, Russia is certainly very interested in Serbian security matters – not least because Serbia is the least stable of the countries through which Gazprom is building the South Stream gas pipeline.

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More generally, I think some of you are missing the point a little. It could well be true that the M2 is the best option for Serbia but that does not mean to say that Serbia can afford it. No plane or capability is worth Serbia’s economic future at a time when that is threatened more than its military security. I doubt I need to explain in detail to anybody here that, beyond air policing, the M2 is only useful in a full-blown conventional war (in which scenario the small number of airframes calls into doubt its usefulness yet again). Serbia’s main security threat (beyond air policing) is low-scale conflict and counter terrorism against the potentially separatist ethnic or religious groups in the Preševo Valley and Sandžak. MiG-29M2s are of no use for those conflicts whatsoever. A much more useful capability here would be equipping the armed forces (the Gendarmerie and army) to be able to operate at night and in poor weather – something like TI equipped ground vehicles, helicopters and UAVs would be more apt than fast jets. Somebody said the M2 comes with a useful ground-attack capability – I would argue that, in Serbia’s case, that capability is far from useful.

With that in mind, raising debt in order to maintain a capability that would only truly be of any use in the extremely unlikely event of a conventional war against another state (again, Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states) is a hugely risky – I would almost say, potentially dangerous – move when the money could be better spent on supporting locally sourced equipment and training more suited to the country’s threat profile.

Hungary is selling 24 MiG-29 airframes for bargain basement prices. I’m not saying its necessarily the best option but its the sort of thing the Serbian AF leadership should be thinking about. New planes, on credit. That just sucks.

Agreed that refurbishing the Moma Stanojlovic facility is a positive move. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how this pans out.

adriann,

With all due respect, your analysis is way off.

There is no danger of a revolt of any kind by the army. The army is under strict political (albeit not democratic) control by the civilian authorities. Serbia is simply not one of those countries in which the military is a separate block from civilian political affairs.

Certainly wages are low, as is morale, but it is not just unlikely but neigh on impossible that this deal is some kind of effort to buy the army off.

If you’re looking for a back-story, think more in terms of Russia’s interests (both financial and geopolitical).

Serbia’s interest here, as I’ve already written above, is hard to discern. The individual politicians involved will, of course, have their moment in newspapers as they stand by brand new airframes, shake hands with pilots and with Russian officials or MiG representatives but there is much more to it than that.

As for lamenting the disappearance of the Yugoslav army, forget about it. No army tradition could survive what happened to Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Besides, most of what was good about it was myth and its vulnerability to political squabbling within the country became more than apparent in 1991. That said, it stood head and shoulders above the combined armies of all the successor states but then, that was a Cold War thing as much as anything.

Personally I’m quite angry about the deal. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for Serbia to be able to buy and operate a squadron of modern combat aircraft. But more than that, I’d love for Serbia to be able to afford them.

There are just too many questions:
How is this purchase being financed? Is there spare money in the defence budget that nobody knew about? If not, are the Russians supplying credit? On what terms? Why was there no prior discussion (at least in parliament) about further borrowing when the country is already up to its neck in debt?

Ok, I concede there is a possibility that they’re just a gift from the Russian Federation to the Republic of Serbia. It could happen.

Also, I question the military validity of the purchase. Even if we assume a further 6 airframes in 2014 (and all the accompanying kit, training and support) – what role are these planes fulfilling? Serbia cannot engage in a conventional war with any of its neighbours (all are in NATO except Kosovo, which is to all intents and purposes a NATO protectorate). Unconventional threats abound but even with its relatively advanced A2G capabilities, the M2 is hardly the right tool for the job. So we’re left with air policing. If that’s the case, couldn’t they have chosen something cheaper, or at least cheaper to operate (say, something with just one engine)?

And finally, the thing that really annoys me is that the massive amount of money (probably) being spent here is simply going down the drain. Surely it would be better to spend it on domestic products (however questionable the quality) in order to support the local defence industry and make it more competitive on the still healthy developing world arms market.

Otherwise, I will thoroughly enjoy seeing the M2s in Serbian colours.