Its a big assumption you’re making vis a vis inflation. Defence inflation typically runs ahead of regular inflation. In addition, the later Rafale tranches will have more expensive kit added on – AESA radar, GaN Spectra, Scorpion HMD, Talios pod etc.
And IIRC recent figures put the Rafale cost over 85 million, or around 70 million minus VAT. That’s still about quarter or so less than the F-35A, but at FRP the F-35A should be able to beat that figure quite handily.
Extrapolating from the Swiss contract, for $6 billion you’d be able to get no more than 50 Gripen Es (if not much less). If the Rafale was in the same cost bracket as the Gripen E, it would probably have been the primarily competitor for the F-35A in European markets instead of the Gripen. Brazil would have been a lock as well, considering the ready availability of a carrier variant.
The Rafale cost increased because the production runs are ever more delayed. Contrary to the F35 numbers don’t increase but they were reduced to the minimum possible level. 85 birds is about 50% of the number of Rafales produced until now. If you add the 18 Rafales produced for India then you get a 64% increase, which would lower the unit cost considerably.
It always amazes me when F35 fans consider that the unit cost of the F35 will lower even when most operators say they won’t take as many as planned, yet if you add 64% more Rafales to the production run, you won’t get a lower unit cost.
That’s quite a stretch on common sense.
Nic
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