Gripen NG may not have a significant advantage when dealing with later block Turkish F-16s, and even less (if any) when Turkey receives F-35s.

This is irrelevant. Read again this:

In any case, personally given the circumstances i am in favour of F16s. There is no reason for Greece to proceed to a new type, more costly, other than political, when it is obvious that the political establishment in Greece has quit any idea of defence. Turkish frigates since last June arrive up to the gulf of Athens, violating the rules of innocent passage through greek territorial waters and we simply protest diplomatically. They leave turkish ports, follow a route without purpose through the islands, up to the cape south of Athens and then go back to Turkey. In different times such things would attract the press and the fire of the opposition, but with the opportunity of the economic crisis, the goverment grabbed the occasion to apply this new policy. Just a show of force from the turkish side, which will become of course an unofficial permanent condition. Turkey wants sharing the control of the Aegean (eastern half) and its probable resources (oil). This is yet another step and i am confident that she will succeed. With time, reading about ships wondering without precise destination and all systems active in greek waters will become yet another “usual news”.

Basically, Greece will only do something if there is a direct invasion of Rhodes or – God forbid- Mykonos (where the politicials have their villas).

And a recent article in newspaper, claims that we now do “BVR interceptions” against TuAF, in order to avoid accidents like the mid-air collision of some years ago. If the article is true, it is more likely that it is the order of our PM after he read about the turkish coup plan which predicted turkish jets being crashed on purpose or provoking HAF to shoot them down. In his mind, “if the jets of the 2 sides never come close, then there can’t be provocation!”. Neville Chamberlain would be proud. Of course the “BVR interceptions” are a joke, but in the newspaper was presented as something positive, a new, lethal weapon!

Greece, realistically speaking, must get something cheap to buy and maintain, capable of sending missiles to the turkish coast. That’s it. There isn’t money in the next 10 years at least, for costly 120 mln euro per plane solutions. The Gripen NG is the best option for something unknown to Turkey, cutting edge technology and limitless weapons integration, at low operational costs.

As one HAF high rank officer is quoted to have said to a politician “Buy whichever aircraft you like, but in decent numbers, so to be able to do our job”. Even if we presume that Greece will spend enough on say EFs or Rafales, it will simply mean, that other programs will suffer cuts. This is leading nowhere. Greece must get out of the traditional cold war era mentality and adopt to the specific threat with new mentality. The best deterrence for Greece, isn’t anymore to be able to cause big losses to TuAF. It’s to be able to damage severely the turkish infrastructure and economy near the coast (which is the richest region of Turkey).

With the money gained by the purchase of Gripens instead of more costly aircrafts, you can buy more Shorads and VShorads for the islands or ground based anti-ship batteries, which makes much more sense.

Not to mention, that at the end, the chance of actually using them, is very low. They must really invade Rhodes. Otherwise Greece is giving Turkey liberty of movement anywhere in the Aegean, which , in a first stage, is satisfactory for Turkey. I mean, we let them wonder aimlessly with all sensors active inside waters in the past 6 months, why go to war… A sample of single frigate route (if it was sticking to innocent passage procedures, it would be still normal, but it wasn’t):

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9687/76099368.png

In another occasion, a frigate having a drill in the Northern Aegean, left the exercize area, followerd a “crazy” route up to the east coast of Attica and then returned to Turkey…

Why buy Eurofighter? We ‘re giving them what they want for now. In the event that some day they will want the islands too, little difference will make whether we have Gripens or EF. Better have more Gripens than fewer Eurofighters.

BESIDES, now that the Lisbon Treaty is going active, greek borders are EU’s borders and everyone has the obbligation to defende them. So, say that by accident or no accident, the situation goes on flames in the Aegean. You will NOT have just HAF, but also:

– The Germans fighting with the French on who will defend the EU “spirit” and “law”, arguing on who is going to prove his battleworthness for first. Then Italians, Spaniards, Belgians, Portoguese, Dutch and the rest of the bunch will be waiting in queue shouting: “Come on! Leave something for us too! Wait for me! Nein! The Luftwaffe will go in first and crush Tuaf! Jamais! The AdlA will move in with the Rafales and show who has the best plane!”. :D:D:D:D

-1) No weapons usable by Hamas have been found on the ships

This to the Israeli point of view, is irrelevant. They didn’t want that organization to operate freely on their soil, had warned Turkey that they won’t permit it, they did it.

-2) No one on board the ships was a “terrorist”

A greek activist who was taken in the prison camp, tells instead that the Israelis had a name list about each one of them and some were taking “particular treatment” (not in a positive way). No greek was tortured in the prison camp for example, while there were muslims taken away and returned visibly beaten, according to him. So whether you or i think they were terrorists, doesn’t count much. It counts what the Israelis suspected or considered them to be.

Also, being a terrorist isn’t something you have written on your ID card nor is it necessary to be Palestinian in order to be considered a terrorist threat by someone as Israel. If the Palestinians think that you use an NGO as “cover” to fuel your local terrorism, you ‘re as good as a terrorist. May i remind, that during the US invasion in Iraq, US border patrols arrested about 10 Turkish SF men, disguised as humanitarian volunteers in an aid convoy? Their real aim wasn’t humanity, but boost insurgency of Turkmens in N. Iraq against the Kurds. US military expelled them. In a second incident, US forces raided a turkish liaison station in Norther Iraq, again with the accusation that they were there to destabilize the region in order to prevent the autonomisation of a “Kurdistan” inside Iraq. Did you see the US military provide proof about that? No. But they were tied up and sent back to Turkey anyway.

And a thing to remember. Turkey, uses military force offensively, only when she is convinced about very big gains, with little damage for herself. Although this was particular true for the Kemalists and probably less for the Islamists, the internal political situation in Turkey doesn’t allow for anything else than “walk in the park victory”. In the case of Israel, we can’t seriously expect a land invasion through Syria. US would intervene to guarantee the survival of Israel.

So it would end up an air-naval operation. To what end? Strike targets inside Israel as “punishment”? IAI would have the huge advantage of operating inside her home and inside its own air-defence umbrella. And no navy can survive forever in hostile waters once its air support grows thin. This leaving aside types, numbers of aircrafts, trainning and tactics that may change things of course.

This is no proper time for Turkey to do anything like that. In a better occasion in some future, maybe. Now, no way.

Right now, the turkish PM is simply trying to ride the wave of international outrage to gain some political support from his local electorate and get “arab popularity points”. Show of flag, “Turkey is here” are fine for PR, but the substance doesn’t change. Israel didn’t want the IHH ship to unload its cargo to Gaza and that happened, in a way or the other.

If the book of the current Turkish FM Ahmed Davutoglou ever gets translated in english, do buy it. You will discover a whole new world in geopolitics.

There won’t be any military confrontation. This is just “PR” for the hegemony over the muslims of ME (Turkey wants to put Iran into shade).

As for the Israelis, obviously they miscalculated the use of force they would need, but it was also a statement towards the new turkish policy, that Israel won’t tollerate intrusive policies towards her.

Israel has a very precise opinion about IHH and had warned Turkey not to sent the ships. Israel wanted to make clear its point.

Israeli opinion on IHH:
http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e105.htm

Danish Institute opinion on IHH:
http://www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/WP2006/DIIS%20WP%202006-7.web.pdf

Bad mouths say that it is implicitely supported by the turkish islamist ruling party and follows a proislamist political agenda coherent with the gov’s goals.

Interesting video from FYR Macedonia and IHH’s charity program, where it seems they have a soft heart for UCK (if you ask the local’s gov opinion they ‘ll tell you they ‘re terrorists, while of course they ‘re heroes for the ethnic Albanians (who are muslims, hence friends for the IHH).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57Ehj_FnRHo&feature=player_embedded

Oh, by the way, in the neoOttoman doctrine of Mr Davutoglou, Turkey must become an internationally recognised geopolitical pillar in the Eurasia. It’s a revamped theory like the one already proposed in the 80s, which was calling for turkish sphere of influence, the area from the Adriatic to the Chinese Great Wall. In Mr. Davutoglou’s theory, 2 Balkan countries are instrumental in the success (becoming turkish satellites): Albania and Bosnia. By coincidence in these days the turkish navy inaugurated her new base in Albania, from where now turkish units will operate, and a regiment of infantry will be hosted.

This isn’t the end of the turkish-israeli relations either. In Turkey a poll for the first time showed the Kemalist ahead of the islamists. If the Kemalists
return to power, it is likely that Turkish-israeli relations will be restored.

There’s also a political analysis of a Kurdish journalists, that makes a theory about Iran, Turkey, Israel and the PKK, but it’s too long and complicated to explain. According to him, the victim of the story, is Erdogan, the apparent victor of the case, while Israel, although mediatically appears loser, in reality pays a low price, compared to the gain (return of Kemalists in Turkey).

As for international law, this exists only in the extent that you have the power to enforce it. So, Israel violated it. Cry me a river… Like if it was the first time…

In the search this appears to be the most recent post, so i will add this here:

This is the HUD video from HAF F16 that had intercepted the flight and continued to fly next to it up to the end. It has english subtitles for the comms.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QSqHn8TFjY

Hellenic pilots refused to fly non-emergency missions.

This is not exactly correct. They didn’t fly tranning flights. All “operational” flights, including readiness and transports were not affected.

to protest against pay cuts in state spending including the military.

This isn’t exactly correct either. They protest, for the fact that their special “flight bonus” will now be taxated as normal income. Basically several professions in Greece, for a part of their income , which was not part of the basic salary, were being taxated with lower coefficients. A sort of “special lower taxation system”. With the new tax law, now any kind of income is subjected to the same tax coefficient. And since this law applies to all professions, it hit the pilots too.

Pilots had done a similar protest twice before in past years, when there was a cut on their flight bonus. The pilots say that their profession is dangerous, with 24h readiness in some days of the month, even in holidays, their basic salary is low and their case should not be treated as equal with other civillian professions. The MoD had some time ago said that he will see to the case so that they won’t lose income. But the tax law is matter of the ministry of economics and if they make one exception here, there others will ask for exceptions.

The MoD expressed disappointment, because as he said, he has already made statements, which reflect also the will of the ministry of economics, that they will take measures to “restore” their income, without bending the general new law of unified tax scale. Apparently, the pilots didn’t trust his words…

HAF’s Chief talking to pilots said that their reaction was “premature”.

http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11803&Itemid=139
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11814&Itemid=49

On another note, defencenet pubblished a photo of the A7 that had the bird strike:

A7 ACCIDENT:

Yesterday a HAF A7E, while flying over the Peloponese at 3000 ft, had an accident, when a bird hit the canopy. The canopy broke and the pilot got injured. The left side of the canopy was completely broken, but the pilot with his wingman flying next to him managed to land successfully.

No details about how seriously the pilot was injured.

http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11756&Itemid=49