I would have dismissed it as crock myself, but there now is photographic proof from the PLA itself (yes the pics are official) that they are seriously testing it. Way ahead of what common opinion think the starting tests should be (after this decade).
The pictures do not definitively prove an AShBM is depicted. All they show is a DF-15 variant with what would appear to be a MARV. The DF-15 variant may well be designed to evade ATBM-capable systems deployed on Formosa. It could be an AShBM, but you can’t prove that what you’re seeing is or isn’t simply based on some reporting and some unrelated images.
Anyway:
1. An AShBM can work. Use a RORSAT for targeting data. There’s your C3I “back end”. The problem is that a Mach 6 weapon is exponentially easier to intercept than a TBM moving considerably faster, even if it is in an ascent mode. Not easy mind you, but still easier than hitting a TBM. Besides, the trajectory of the inbound weapon can be predicted, because you know what it’s going for. A modified CIWS Phalanx could be conceived to defend against such a weapon. But anyway, an AShBM is feasible, provided you can make it accurate enough. ARH is a bad idea however, as it is yet another thing you can use to home in on to defeat the inbound.
2. The Chinese ASAT test…who said it used terminal homing?
3. Developing and fielding a RORSAT-targeted AShBM designed to hit a USN carrier is only going to mean the US will resume development of ASAT systems. This system will only be effective if A) China intends to reoccupy Formosa before an ASAT can be fielded, or B) it can be made to work without having to rely on any sort of satellite targeting.
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