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geogen

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Viewing 15 posts - 211 through 225 (of 257 total)
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  • in reply to: Malaysian Typhoon #2392399
    geogen
    Participant

    Perhaps Gripen NG would be the most economical modernization? Taking into account LCC costs.

    in reply to: U.S. AF, U.S. Navy Air sea battle concept! #2392407
    geogen
    Participant

    ww,

    there are studies on that matter. It probably goes beyond the public forum scheme of things though. In short, there’s nothing really supporting your skepticism in regards to the mid-term. Perhaps 5 yrs ago, sure.

    in reply to: Taiwan's growing fighter gap with China #2392409
    geogen
    Participant

    IMHO,

    ROC should instead seek an AIDC license-produced upgraded F125 engine for an evolved, upgraded F-CK IDF indigenous a/c… Perhaps lease SABR-lite units as part of systems upgrade integration? Add an integrated centerline IRST tank?

    About 80% less provocation, but with efficiencey, economy and proportionate and fair counter-balance ‘gap-filling’ potential restricted only by the numbers ROCgov decides to order?

    edit: In fact, such a jet could actually prove reasonable bargain export potential as well? Go from net importer to net exporter all while satisfying domestic defense requirements in the same motion??

    in reply to: Norway vs. China #2397883
    geogen
    Participant

    Ok, end of threads?? I’d vote to keep Modern Military Aviation forums just that.:)

    Maybe add an open warfare x vs y forum, if the interest is there.

    in reply to: Canards and stealth. . . #2398648
    geogen
    Participant

    Then again… to be fair, the 275 knot enveleope is not necessarily standstill. I’m sorry but one must give credit of capabilities where credit is due. And furthermore, s-m would have to be classified as covering all relative ranges of speed? (i.e., the full spectrum speeds at which air combat would actually take place, not just the optimal speeds one would wish combat to take place)?

    Personally, I’d consider as viable a reduced RCS F-16X development program combining a Ventral Canard Vectoring-type system, similar to that tested during the CCV flights. Yes? No?

    in reply to: France versus Israel regional Battle Royal! #2398653
    geogen
    Participant

    Or… maybe IDF should contemplate acquiring Rafale and call it a day? 😀

    geogen
    Participant

    I’d say that’s a pretty fair overall rebut, H.K.

    I tend to agree that LCS is more of a doctrinal flaw (e.g. flawed acquisition policy/strategy from inception) – steering the requirement for 55 hulls et al. It just smells fishy to me and has more of a derived ‘ship building industrial complex smell’, over anything. (i.e., Marketed as a ‘cheap’ multi-purpose surface/littoral combatant to be simply banged out in high numbers… although in reality we find: not so cheap afterall and a ship w/ shrinking capabilities and fewer suitable missions)??

    Other than that, I think it’s a well-intentioned concept and very cool/modern looking for an American concept. IMHO, the speed could probably best be exploited for evading rare torpedoes fired first by some pesky littoral lurking sub (or mine), even more than escaping fast boats – swarming from all directions not just one, yikes.. But still, I don’t think the concept is justified – at least at this point – with the mission in mind.

    Hence, put me in the camp of supporting reallocated (limited and imminently shrinking) USN ship procurement funds – for a better multi-mission ship with better light/supplemental ‘escort’ ability but with ASW/AMW mission module capability and spec ops module too.

    So realistically, perhaps procure 8-10 LCS, cut losses and call it a day – with 3-4 dedicated for US SOCOM and 3-4 dedicated for primarily ASW/AMW. (and/or Perhaps a couple RAM-less ships transferred to USCG for Caribbean anti-drug and natural disaster rapid response as well)?

    Back to thread… so would a DCNS frigate (or alternative corvette/Frig) be something to which USN reallocate this longer-term LCS budget? Or perhaps even mixing a few M88 type ships to the list for good measure? I wouldn’t be able to speculate on any exact ship’s validity, but the basic principle sounds to be on track. BTW, what would a DCNS go for cost wise? $1billion USD?

    in reply to: Why 3 different F-35 ? #2399093
    geogen
    Participant

    FWIW, as the topic is related to F-35… while the F-35’s architecture has possibility to integrate NGJ, there would be necessary hardware modifications and other likely cockpit updates required to the a/c as well. It’s not as simple as just plugging-in a modularized F-35 airframe when the time comes. As such, there will obviously be extensive testing done to assess actual feasible operations of an F-35 NGJ platform and whether to go there/fund it, or stick with platforms such as Growlr.

    in reply to: South Korea – ROKAF. Photo Achieve #2399096
    geogen
    Participant

    Are there any pics of the Chung Sang Eo (Blue Shark) mated to any fast jet e.g., KF-16, TA-50, F-15K?

    in reply to: Reality of F-35 production cost #2404362
    geogen
    Participant

    I am actually quite surprised that Crowley wasn’t replaced by pfcem. They would hardly find another visionnaire being able to deliver for $75mil unit price.

    Alright, I’m sure u got your laugh… low blow at pf’s expense aside 🙂

    But in defense of LM’s latest price estimates, as I interpret them at least, the roughly $60m (engine included) avg URF quote being noted is 1) in 2002 dollars and 2) would be averaged starting with the MYB multi-year buys under some form of fixed-contracting (e.g., starting around FY15’ish). Thus all preceding 350+ LRIP unit URFs and such would not be part of that ‘going forward’ MYB average in said 2002 dollars. So basically and for better wrapping ones head around this ‘head-exploding’ topic… starting in say FY15, the 2002 dollar converted URF could be close to $100m (in Then Year Dollars).

    Now of course, this whole MYB $60m avg URF deal is assuming the still scheduled 2,400+ total Procurement estimate. Add a dose of reality and actual strategic thinking… and viola, the entire CAPE/LM counter-estimating flap today goes out the window and new world numbers find their way onto appropriations bills.

    Come in Congress, do you copy… over.

    in reply to: PAK-FA Saga Episode 13 #2404370
    geogen
    Participant

    Interesting. So based on the above images as evidenced, and if it must be given a letter… perhaps this ‘duct’ could more closely quack and be defined by a sorta flattened ‘V’ instead of ‘S’? For example, via slightly inward canted front-section of duct (maybe 5 degrees?), then redirected outwardly to an outward canted aft-section aligning the stream into the slightly (perhaps 5 degrees) outward angled engine?

    in reply to: PAK-FA Saga Episode 13 #2405101
    geogen
    Participant

    There are definitely some lines there but it is hard to tell whether they are just panel lines or “door” edges. My vote is for weapon bay, simply because they look large enough. But again Sorbtsiya-S ECM pods are pretty large too. We just need to wait.

    I’d have to concur on every point.

    in reply to: Reality of F-35 production cost #2405108
    geogen
    Participant

    Look at the Lot 1 & 2 costs in the FY2010 budget

    pfcem, the reference I’m using is the USAF Financial Management and Comptroller budget estimates for FY07 through FY10. (credit to Spudman for posting links http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/ ).

    The numbers I’ve been referencing and reference below are not a numbers game, sir. They are official USAF estimates – I’m just copying and pasting and doing some estimate increase math to help clarify the tracking of lots 1,2, and 3. Nothing more. Good?

    Now to clarify as best I can, how Lot 1, 2 and 3 estimates have tracked higher compared to the Feb07/Feb08 original estimates, I’ll paste a very clear and itemized comparison of original Lot estimates for ‘URF’ and their respective latest URF estimate increases. (URF just as an example of the very basic Unit Recurring Flyaway portion of the Total Procurement Cost. (Lot 1,2,3 ‘UPC’ also tracking higher in their final estimate).

    URF increases from original estimates: (from official USAF numbers, no play zone)

    Feb07 est for FY07 URF $202.89m
    Feb08 est for FY07 URF $229.60m (+$26.71m per copy increase)

    Feb07 est for FY08 URF $171.45m
    Feb09 est for FY08 URF $180.40m (+$8.95m per copy increase)

    Feb07 est for FY09 URF $145.32m
    Feb10 est for FY09 URF $160.25m (+$14.93m per copy increase)

    That’s all I’m correcting in terms of your openning post, OK? Just correcting the misconception “…when the actual cost of the 1st three LRIP lots… is below even 2007 projections.” (your words).

    As far as the final negotiated prices for FY10 jets being also ‘less’ than Feb07 projections??? Dubious, but of course I will wait like everyone else for the final negotiated cost estimate. Cheers-

    in reply to: Reality of F-35 production cost #2405685
    geogen
    Participant

    pfcem

    FY2009 USAF budget numbers for Lot 3 (FY2009) are for 8 aircraft.
    FY2011 USAF budget numbers for Lot 3 (FY2009) are for 7 aircraft.

    Take a wild guess what that does to unit costs.

    Oh man, pfcem… please, lol.

    The reduced aircraft unit buy of course has something to do with the facts of Lots 1,2, and 3 coming in higher under revised estimates than were originally estimated in Feb07! That’s not disputed man.

    So there’s no numbers game going on with that, man..

    My main contention here therefore, was purely that Lots 1,2 and 3, ‘contrary’ to certain claims made of: all of them coming in lower priced than originally estimated in Feb07, are not priced lower under the latest Feb10 estimate and are fact higher in total Procurement and in the examples of UFC/URF. Alright? Concur?

    OK, now separate issue… going forward, even with FY10 ongoing deal making as we speak, there will by all expectations be increased emphasis to reduce costs. Granted. But we can only assess those as they come to light in hard numbers.

    Cheers – and I think this thread is over and out.. ? 🙂

    in reply to: Germany quits MEADS #1804120
    geogen
    Participant

    Perhaps the program will evolve into a defacto MEADS-lite at some point in the near-term?

Viewing 15 posts - 211 through 225 (of 257 total)