Mysterious announcement to come saturday on Dassault web TV channel… https://twitter.com/dassault_onair/status/453928372813316

generates its own power

How so?

Could a Triton take off from QE carrier? (no pun intended, i really do not know the program, or so little…)

1) Is it the first cost increase? No other program before it has increased in cost?

not to that amount afaik

As far as fighter work is concerned per say, there is a generational shift and often it is not a smooth one

Again that “generation argument”. Actually we are speaking about survivability and mission capability. F-35 MAY show a gap in the future. Presently they are produced on a faster pace they can be retrofitted… In the end LM will be the only american fighter producer, and nearly killed every european builder. See potential consequences?

Tanker program is a top priority

You know aswell as all of us here how this market was biased… US are world leaders in terms of open market except theirs.

Google translation of an article in french speaking 45ème Nord Canada blog

Gone with the time
Added by Richard Rutily 6 April 2014 at 12:00 .
Registered under Analysis
Tags : CF -18 , F -35, Rafale

The idea of this post took shape when I realized that the process of acquiring a replacement for CF-18 Canadians were likely to be quite long. The question we might ask is : For playing time?

As SAAB did not respond to the RFI Canada , where the Super Hornet and F35 will be examined , the Typhoon and Rafale

Super Hornet

In 2012 , there were 257 aircraft to be delivered and orders for 2013 could rise to 66 E / F and 58 Growlers , which allowed to hold until 2015.

Since the deadline has been pushed back to 2016 , but the year is approaching !

It must be said that the strategy of Lockheed Martin is to rely on the USAF to destroy any possibility of an alternative to purchasing the F35 . Stopping production lines F 15 and F18 would allow him to have a monopoly in the production of fighter aircraft.

The Navy , she would keep open the production line F 18 . She first tried commands E / F, but indiscretions foiled the maneuver, then it tries with the Growler , but again she was forced to cancel a pre -solicitation notice .

This leaves more than exports. Boeing’s strategy was to win the Brazil and Canada, the UAE and Qatar. Alas, the Snowden case helping , Brazil went to the Gripen ! Boeing therefore tries to accelerate Canada’s decision , but Canadian politicians are in no hurry and would prefer that the decision was taken after the next election .

The problem for Boeing is that we now buy items with delivery times are long.

Boeing Told me they’ll -have to make key decisions on long -lead items in early 2014. “When you lose a line , ” Said Abulafia , “you never get it Almost back.”http://breakingdefense.com/2013/12/forbes-champions-buying-super-hornets-f-18-vs-f-35-round-two/

This shows that the decision to stop the production line F18 must be taken now .

F-35 JSF

If the F-35 is very different from the F -18, the order book is theoretically bloated and the aircraft has not yet been developed.

The problem of the F-35 is the death spiral . Thus called a vicious circle that we do not know out once it is triggered : a target price is a number of tickets that can be sold if the price increases some countries are more interested and the flight number to produce drops. This reduction increases the price and the cycle repeats . Gold prices rose by 35 F 70%.

It is at the limit of the vicious circle that has been described , and to prevent it snaps Lockheed Martin demonstrated a bewildering optimism in its ads on the future of the program .

But if we stick to the past to assess the evolution of the program , we can say that it is catastrophic:

The F-35 program began in 2001 when the X-35 program was chosen . At this time the delivery was in 2011 and it was the delivery of a fully operational aircraft. Today a similar event would be delivered and the IOC Block 3F which is scheduled for 2021.

After 13 years of development, the horizon of the delivery which initially was 10 years , is now 7 years old. It took 13 years to reduce the distance from the horizon of 3 years! Lockheed Martin swear that from now on the time will be required and the cost will go down, but the version of Block 2B which IOC is required to deliver in 2015 ( in a year) the F-35 Marines just seen his schedule slide 13 months. If the drift rate is maintained, we should not see this delivery before 2019.

You guessed it , the F- 35 time is a formidable enemy because it demonstrates the falsity of the narrative by showing the reality.

For example, it shows that the spiral of death is triggered:

UK Orders provided 150; predictable commands 48
Italy: 130 controls provided ; 90 predictable commands ( complete cancellation of the order is under discussion)
Netherlands: 85 controls provided ; predictable commands 37
Canada Orders provided 65; predictable order ?
Norway: 85 controls provided ; predictable commands 52
This makes a total of 228 orders less from international partners.

Typhoon

The problem is that the Typhoon 4 countries behind the program no longer believe in its future.

The United Kingdom has focused on the F-35 and can not free himself completely because only the F- 35B can be embedded on the two aircraft doors under construction . This is still the country that would be more proactive in developing the program, but it is hampered by the poor financial health of Italy and Spain and the willingness of German economy has canceled the order 37 aircraft tranche 3B. There was a control slice 3A lately, but one may wonder if the tranche 3B will be controlled .

More must be fed four production lines , so that there is very little air to produce at the rate it is necessary to produce them. This explains the statement of Tom Enders : “I ‘m not terribly optimistic,” he has said about the future of the Eurofighter “We still hope to win one or two export success but we must . as we prepare for a scenario where , due to lack of export orders , we will soon reduce production, ” he said. Otherwise , assembly lines ( 4 in number ) will have their workload reduced to zero from the years 2017 to 2018 .

Albeit less critical , time plays against the Typhoon .

gust

The Rafale is a special case because it has a life insurance. The French state is committed to supply a production rate of 11 aircraft per year , which is the minimum rate that keeps the channel open .

On 1st January 2014 Dassault Rafale had delivered 126 and there remained about 100 to deliver what is 9 years . So that brings us to 2023. Although the French state would spread its orders giving priority to export, so the LPM (which is only a forecast of resource allocation but is not binding ) is the assumption that will be produced for 26 Rafale France , between 2014 and 2019. If this were true it would mean that we produced 29 Rafale for export which would push the end of production of the Rafale in 2026.

Time seems to be critical for France but not for Dassault .

conclusion

As surprising as it may seem , we may see this package Boeing be tender after trying to accelerate the exit, and Eurofighter could take 3 years later! It would be only the JSF F-35 and Rafale , and in this case the more tender will be late , the Rafale will be more favored.

This conclusion goes against intuition , but it is quite robust. One example is the only case where there was a confrontation between the Rafale and the F-35 , that is to say the assessment was made in 2002 by the Netherlands : the difference was insignificant, the Note the Rafale was 6.95 and that of F35 6.97 , but the comparison was between a real plane that could try and specifications on a plane . But the F-35 specifications have not been held and had to be degraded while the Rafale has matured and demonstrated continued progress for 12 years. It seems clear that if an assessment had to be done today , the position of the Rafale would be more favorable than it was at the time.

This notion that there is some conspiracy at work on the part of SAAB to conceal the true extent of ToT, production and development opportunities available to Brazil is absurd, not least of all because it requires Brazil to be as dumb as a bag of rocks.

Not aé conpiration by SAAB, but overly optimistic statements from Brazilian politicians maybe?

Long wave = better range

Nice progress on the Brazil front. Not your usual diplo-vagueness.

Agree, still interesting (long wave) choice. Generally speaking also means more cooling, bigger pitch, Qwip technology. No critics at all, i would be interested in sensor tech datas.

and honestly i think having like 1000 times rcs and a good SA seem to be alot more important

Which is the most important feature of “5th Gen”… In a US context.

last but not least i think most pilot will prefer to go in undetected and slow rather than fast and high

Which is the bet of F-35… Relevant or not? Only time will tell us.