Recovery heh..These things go in cycles.

The US is already in its next recession. As is the rest of the world. Russia just doesn’t fake its numbers.

World Bank- Russia is a part of the UN, no? Nice try.

The world economy is in recession. Some people in the US just don’t want to admit it yet. This is effecting Russia exports but its effecting the US more.

US Factory Orders have decline year-over-year every month since October 2014 (the end of QE3). This is the longest period of decline in US history (since 1956) and has always indicated the US economy is in recession…

That is an urban myth propagated by US Keynesian economists. The US dollar has fallen from $120 on the DXY to $80 since the year 2000 and the trade deficit got worse. In Germany, the Euro went from $80 to $1.40 and exports soared

Thank goodness the US economy does not rely on Manufacturing. As for the global recession- ahem see above post. The truth hurts.

What I said was, oil was 40% OF the total GDP of Russia in the 90’s. Now it is 15% of the total GDP. So the myth floating around that Russia is a gas station is just that. A myth from the yester years of Yeltsin.

Funny, because I was using figures from just before the 2013 oil price collapse:
https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp617.pdf
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/pubs/rer35_ENG.pdf
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Crash-Shrinks-Russian-GDP-Energy-Minister-Blames-Saudis.html oil price.com- the same source you used for one of your points, actual details and sources hurt don’t they?

Sorry, but that almost makes me laugh. The way the US comes up with that number is as follows. When the price was $100 or more, shale companies started adding huge fields to their reserves because at that price, they could be counted as reserves. Then when oil busted, they had to write down all of those fields (You dont hear that the US is Saudi arabia anymore do you..) Then they took the small hand full of the best fields and claim that “Bakkens break even is $25” Its a farce. Total farce.

Funny, as you write this, oil is at $46 dollars per barrel and the US is still producing 9.2 billion barrels of oil with a rising GDP. How exactly do you explain the falling 6 quarter GDP and Rosnef posting record losses with oil production reaching a record high?

Th

e whole Bakken play was a sell side Wall St bubble similar to the housing bubble in 2008. The sell side can come up with any number it wants to make it look pretty. But it ain’t.

Look at what the sell side was telling investors (where your $25 break even number probably came from) and what they tell the SEC.

Again, oil price.com- same sources you used:
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Shale-Is-Not-Capitulating-Yet.html
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/08/12/oil-at-30-is-no-problem-for-some-cost-cutting-bakken-drillers/
The funny thing is, that there is a different break-even price for all regions using fracking, so saying $100 per barrel is flat out wrong. Depending on the company and region, it ranges from 60 to 20ish dollars per barrel. The point is… your comment is B.S. even Russian producers are facing issues with break-even prices based on well technology and maturity. There is no one set price that will drive out producers.

This post sure shut the Nato/US fanboys up about Crimea.

Anyone want to challenge me on Crimea again ?

No fanboy, but I will. First, in the Referendum in 1991: Crimea voted for independence from Russia despite having a high percentage of Russians. Even Sevastopol voted “yes”. May 6, 1992, Crimea amended the constitution to declare that Crimea was part of Ukraine. 1998, Crimea ratifies new constitution which upholds the Verkhovna Rada control over Crimea. In essence, your premise is a typical twist of the truth.

Not to mention, the Budapest agreement-

“obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.”

– I forgot no Russian troops ever threatened Ukrainian territory. They only went “on vacation” to fight there. Of course, the The Union of the Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia would disagree, but what do they know?

Then we have the Russian and Ukrainian Friendship Treaty (1997)- which stated “the inviolability of present borders”, but that was just paper, right?

Russia’s economy was 40% oil and gas in the 90’s. It is 15% now. Thats a fact. And its funny how the US was hailing itself as the next Saudi Arabia when oil prices were high. The US was bragging about being a gas station. Fracking was all the rage. Even though most US frac companies weren’t making money at $100 oil. The only reason there is any job gains in the US since the great US recession is because of the oil boom. But the minute the oil boom turns to bust, the western media points at Russia.

As much as I hate to wade into this mess, I’m going to. These nationalistic economic arguments are always good for the typical chest pounding absurdity. Every economy has warts, there is no perfect model. Having said that, do you actually believe that the fall of oil revenue from 40% to 15% is a positive? Look at the costs of Brent crude over the last three years. It does not prove that Russia is less dependent of hydrocarbons for economic growth, it proves the opposite! 128 dollars (US) a barrel in early 2013 to 46 dollars a barrel. That is why it’s share of the Russian economy is 15%.

Second, the break even price of fracking on Bakken shale is 25 dollars per barrel, you can thank the Saudi’s for driving efficiency in the Fracking industry. Right now, the price is sidelining exploration and new well drilling. The production of US crude is still only 500 barrels a week off the high in 2015. Producers are sidelining wells until prices rebound. This is NOT a recipe for a strong crude oil price recovery.

Don’t forget all the big dreams the US had of exporting nat gas to Europe to compete with Russia. Before the 2014 oil price route of course.
US shale is a surprisingly unprofitable miracle – FT.com
http://www.ft.com › Markets › FTfm › Opinion

Again, do you think this will lead to the heady days when Gazprom had a stranglehold on LNG delivery to Eastern Europe? That ship has sailed, consumers will be diversifying their base to avoid the possibility of sole sourced supply interruption.

US LNG exports to be loss-making with ‘100% probability’: Gazprom
http://www.platts.com/…/natural-gas/…/us-lng-exports-to-be-loss-making-with-100-probabil…

Gazprom is a good source as their operating costs have jumped 17% in the past year. There is a considerable amount of wishful thinking happening in the energy industry right now. Hopes that Iranian crude will not upset OPEC production quotas, hopes that the current glut will ease with a cold winter, hopes that the US fracking industry will be forced out. Worst of all, hopes that price controls are still possible in the near term. Market factors are not encouraging.

Lastly, while US job gains have not at all been tied to the energy boom as layoffs have paced hirings in that industry for the last two year yet unemployment is 4.6% (A B.S. number to be sure- but accurate in terms of employable people).

I am not going to trash the Russian economy because there are some bright spots. However, there are several warning signs that our JSR types don’t seem to accept. First, while the Ruble fell in value so did manufacturing for five straight quarters. This is not a positive sign. Manufacturing in Russia only rebounded in August with the improved outlook of the economy as a whole. If you know anything about economics, you will see the negative here: usually as a value of a currency declines, manufacturing and exports usually see an uptick. Russian manufacturing is tied to domestic consumption. Russian officials were right, sanctions had a negligible impact on manufacturing. Again, this points to domestic consumption as the driver of the Russian economy as a whole outside of the energy industry. There is a word for the situation, stagflation. What you have seen is inflation of food prices, necessities, without wage or GDP growth. Nabiullina has done an amazing job of stabilizing the economy, softening the floor. There is a cost, however. Without layoffs, without efficiency improvements, or capital investments, recovery will be slow and uneven. If the Panama papers showed anything, the Russian super rich are not investing capital in country. The lack of V.C. interest, loss of foreign investment, the increase in state ownership will limit growth for the near term.

Again, I’m not chest pounding the U.S. economy as there are issue there as well. But reality needs to be applied to this current conversation.

The aid convoy video, someone thinks it was a hellfire missile.

yes, a predator drone hellfire strike that resulted in 20 odd separate explosions for nearly two hours. Entirely plausible. The further we get from this event and the more implausible explanations being fielded, the sadder this thread gets.

My point is that while RWR can be substitute for radar to some extent in mid course guide , i dont think swash plate is a bad decision , it fact , i think it quite interesting one

Bad? No, it comes down to choices. LO design choices dictate a fixed array angled as to not reflect, and the cost of 120* max FoV without additional arrays. A repositioner obviously adds FoV, at the cost of added complexity, reduced space, possible RCS increase.

The whole discussion started with the premise that a swashplate allowed the shooter to keep array on the target while turning away. The ability to provide mid course guidance via missile handoff or systems like the AN/ALR-94 provide alternatives.