FBWFAIK till Obama left his post the Fat man was not testing any thing , Only when Trump came he provoked him and then he fell for it and started testing nuke and missile
– then you would be wrong. His testing of ICBM and Nuclear testing ramped up during the Obama admin.
FBWInterview with Viktor Bondarev , Has his take on INF Treaty and Foreign Military Base and Syrian Crisis
Won’t comment much on the Syrian and Ukrainian parts which are obviously aimed at domestic consumption- though I do love how he claims that the US and Russia aren’t cooperating in Syria. Obviously, there is a difference of opinion on several issues related with Assad, but this is a sad display of the constant anti-US propaganda fed to Russians.
The N. Korea section is truly shocking, there was no sabre rattling until fat man started nuke testing and test firing missiles on provocative trajectories near his neighbors. Discounting the war of words between the two egotists, the actions that threaten to upend that region have been prompted by DPRK. Wonder if Bondarev would feel differently if Ukraine was test firing prototype ICBMs in the waters of the Black Sea? S. Korea and Japan have every reason to worry when Jong-Un has shown willingness provoke with attacks on S. Korean islands and ships.
FBWGripen – cheapest, but lesser advantage than before
Rafale – fully versatile more capable and proven, but somewhat dearer than the Gripen
F-35 – bringing the “5th gen tag”, but at what real price/capabilities combo and, most of all, will it even accept the real and complete evaluation based competition ?
Yes because Denmark wasn’t a “real” competition because the F-35 won…
Truth is, it’s unlikely that the evaluation will be leaked for this second go around, so unless there is a completely transparent evaluation with methodology and results made public (like in Denmark), we may not know the results of the technical evaluation in depth as we did in previous Swiss eval.
It is more likely that the results of any technical eval will be kept tightly under wraps this time, with a few of the competitors declared suitable. Then it comes down to costs, well that and the Swiss voters. They very well may decide to buy their Airforce from Amazon instead. I’m sure there will be some deals on drones after Christmas.
FBWGripen MS21 was still rated inferior, so yes, if Hallow is insinuating that the worst aircraft won, he would be correct. “Worst” being relative to the two other highly capable competitors, but little doubt it was the most affordable.
If we were placing bets:
40% odds Gripen E
25% odds Rafale
15% odds Typhoon
10% to the SH
5% or less F-35 (if F-35 is even offered), too much negative press to “win” with Swiss public
5% F-16 or nothing
FBWOk, I recall 4 of 12 regional MDF’s were required for IOC and all 12 and full threat database was due with IOT&E. Correct?
Israel contracted a specific set of MDF for theirs plus ability to develop their own.
FBWSpud, are you sure the 3i MDF are capable of that? I though the regional specific MDF and full threat library was due with 3F, but currently, 3i aircraft do not have this capability.
The contract for the F-35I MDF’s was due for 2020-21 I believe.
FBWhe F-35I is an exceptionel ELINT tool. Every flight of it generates related data from constant sniffing. An incursion in the secure Lebanese airspace during night-time to learn some ELINT from the Syrians and Russians nearby in realtime is worth some risc and has nothing to do with IOC.
The F-35 WILL be an exceptional ELINT tool. The F-35I do not have the MDF (mission data files) for threat ID and detection yet. In fact, Norway was the first overseas customer to receive their MDF (on Nov 9). The IDF would not send the aircraft into collect data without the software needed to make the F-35 an exceptional ELINT tool.
Quite simply didn’t happen. Why would they send an aircraft that isn’t operational in their service, does not have critical mission software for detecting and classifying IADS, does not have the weapons integrated for SEAD/DEAD when they have perfectly capable F-16I and F-15I that do have that mission and have been operating over Syria with impunity.
People desperately WANT to believe this conspiracy theory. That is despite zero evidence, other than vague statements via Syria on SouthFront. And no, Israel reporting a birdstrike is not some smoking gun, it’s standard procedure. Even fairly secretive forces report mishaps that cause material damage.
FBWThe basing at Eielson is probably the most challenging environment imaginable for a LO aircraft. It appears that the F-35A ‘s are moving into the F-16 hangars and the F-16’s are moving into renovated former A-10 shelters. (trying to confirm this, though they are building new aircraft weather shelters) EDIT- new weather shelters will be for F-35A. Two existing weather shelters for F-16’s is being modified for the F-35A. Makes sense, the 18th Aggressor squadron has 18 aircraft, the F-35A beddown will have 54 F-35A based there
The MILCON FY18 shows the new construction for hosting the F-35A at Eielson, nothing unique, mostly consolidating facilities for engine maintenance and weapons, the combined squadron ops/AMU hangar construction bids were FY2017..
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/documents/Air%20Force%20MILCON%20FY18.pdf?ver=2017-05-23-153715-980
Here is the beddown plan for PACAF: outlines the Eielson construction:
https://www.pacaf-f35aeis.com/Resources/Documents/F-35_Pacific_Beddown_Draft_EIS.pdf
FBWOh so the B-1B will be too expensive? So where does that leaves us if you want to fly big? think the larger more capable Tu-160 is cheaper though..
Please explain, exactly how is the Tu-160 “more capable” . It is bigger and faster, what about penetration abilities? Weapons? Ew? Radar?
The B-1b just had an upgrade, exactly how many Tu-160m1 are in service?
FBW10 billion euros – 11.9 billion dollars / 64 aircraft = 186 453 125 dollars per one
F-35 costs the foreign buyer exactly twice as expensive …
I see your costing skills are as poor as your estimations of weight, range, and combat capability.
186 million per F-35….. how many government documents on cost do you want to prove you wrong, SAR or GAO? Your off by 80+ million on the most conservative estimates.
FBWFreddy’s post reminded me of a question: Word is that Sevmash won the Kuznetsov refit contract. Didn’t think Kuznetsov can fit through flood basin gates of Sevmash, which was one reason previous repairs were done in PD-50 floating drydock.
I know there were plans to widen the basin gates, has that plan been implemented?
FBW@Tr-1… thanks for information on new Tu-160. Flateric seems to confirm it is not an M2
FBW$21 Billion Worth of F-35 Concurrency Orphans? If all older model F-35s are included, costs could rise to $40 billion
http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/weapons/2017/21-billion-worth-of-f-35-concurrency-orphans.html
Not only did Dan Grazier fail to separate what modifications are needed for each block, or that there are 126 TOTAL aircraft that are in 2B configuration, he fails to note the differences in each production lot. Marine block 2B aircraft in later lots don’t require the same modifications as early F-35A’s in block 2B.
KNOWN BLOCK 3 IOT&E MODIFICATION REQUIREMENTS IN LOTS 3 THROUGH 91
Variant Lot 3 Lot 4 Lot 5 Lot 6 Lot 7 Lot 8 Lot 9
F-35A 124 (69) 100 (44) 83 (32) 38 (15) 15 (2) 10 (1) 2 (1)
F-35B 130 (77) 106 (56) 82 (38) 38 (19) 10 (2) 3 (0) 1 (0)
F-35C 96 (43) 80 (30) 38 (15) 14 (2) 8 (1) 2 (0)
1. Numbers in parentheses denote authorized and scheduled modifications. (FY15 DOT&E)
He apparently did zero research on the differences between the software modifications (3F) and hardware modifications (primarily 2B to 3i depending on lot) or differences production lots. He then tries to tie this in with Concurrency.
The only significant difference between 2B and 3I is the aircraft’s computer processor.
– which is exactly why the USAF is considering leaving some aircraft in 2B, the aircraft in 3I have the hardware to be upgraded to 3F.
Here he claims:
Under the best-case scenario, the only aircraft that would remain concurrency orphans are the 108 Air Force Block 2B and 3I F-35As…….nearly 200 F-35s might permanently remain unready for combat because the Pentagon would rather buy new aircraft than upgrade
The sheer dishonesty is shocking, even for POGO. There aren’t going to be 200+ orphans, worst case scenario is there will be less than 100 total between all three services (and that assumes that none of the 2B aircraft currently lacking TR2 are ever brought to block 3F, something we know isn’t going to happen as the Marines are already buying the hardware to upgrade early lots).
There may be none, or just the 45 F-35A that need TR2 that the USAF keeps as a training fleet, we just don’t know. What is certain is that it isn’t going to be over 200 aircraft or even 108 F-35A that never get 3F.
Even when this came out it was a tempest in a teapot:
“Twenty-six of those 108 aircraft will require a software-only upgrade, according to Harris. In addition to software modifications, 19 aircraft will also require new signal processor cards which the service says will take an average of three days to install and test. The service must install 18 aircraft with a newer helmet mounted display system, in addition to the processor cards and software, which will take 15 days to install.
“The remaining forty-five aircraft will require significant hardware modifications in the form of a Tech Refresh 2 modification,” Harris states. “This modification consists of twenty-six major components and takes approximately 30 days per aircraft to install and checkout.”””- https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/us-air-force-must-retrofit-108-f-35as-434241/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%202.16.17&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
Grazier even had this article linked in the story, I assume he believes people are too lazy or stupid to click it and understand that it invalidates much of what he claimed in his piece. Or perhaps he really is astonishingly clueless.
Spud, can you confirm that out of the F-35B’s, lots 2-5 lack TR2 upgrades? (32 total Marine F-35B)
This effort (OSIP 015-14) focuses on upgrading Blocks 1B, 2A, and 2B aircraft from LRIPs 2-5 to a Block 3i configuration. Block 3i is a stepping stone to the Block 3F configuration. It includes the procurement
of Tech Refresh 2 (TR2) hardware for the Block 3i configuration. The parts include new radar modules, new Integrated Core Processor (ICP) modules and rack, and new Electronic Warfare (EW) modules. The
Gen III Helmet will also be introduced as part of the Block 3i upgrade. This effort includes tooling and test equipment for Military Service Depots to support the execution of the Block Upgrade program.
FBWIf Russia and Turkey become much closer then all the US hard work of containing Russia from Middle terrainien Sea blue water port goes right down the toilet. Russia has Tartarus in Syria.
– If you buy into that Russian-Centric view that the US is actively trying to “contain” Russia in the Med region. This isn’t 1988, Turkey is no longer the doorkeep for the southern front.
Exactly what fleet does Russia have to base in Med? Black Sea fleet? Already has access: short of WWIII when do you see Turkey denying a Russian sub or frigate transit?
his is a strategical big DooDoo in US world power projection.
– The Northern fleet and Black sea fleet combined wouldn’t be a threat to the US ability to project power in Middle east (really the Med is a secondary issue, any number of NATO navies are stronger than a potential expeditionary fleet Russia could send into the Med). And in what scenario would any of this play out? WWIII? Think there would be bigger issues than a potential naval contest in Med if war broke out.
FBWUS has to consider losing an already fragle relationship with Turkey. Driving them closer to Russia. Every statement and decision from US has its reaction.
Think that Turkey has more to consider. As the saying goes ” with a friend like the current Turkish government…….”
As I’ve stated before, would not be displeased to see the S-400 sale go through and for US Congress to use it as a wake up call to reconsider not only the F-35, but any and all weapon and technology transfers to Turkey.
Recep Erdogan is no friend to the U.S., it boggles the mind for the U.S. to ignore his actions (and words) and continue to treat him as an ally. Not to drag politics into this, but the whole Gulen coup was nothing but a purge with Erdogan pawning off responsibility on the old bogeyman of a “Evil US plot”.
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