New Report: Britain Needs Full International Security Review
(Source: Oxford Research Group; issued May 21, 2010)
LONDON — A new report from leading independent think tank, Oxford Research Group (ORG), calls for the cancellation of the aircraft carrier project, the scaling-down of the Trident programme, and the establishment of an independent Defence Procurement Authority. Unless such decisions are taken, the new defence review will be unable to address the real global security challenges facing Britain.
The briefing, Reviewing Britain’s Security, follows the announcement from new Defence Secretary, Dr Liam Fox, that the Strategic Defence Review is now underway. The author of the report, Professor Paul Rogers, warns that the Government “may be shooting itself in the foot, unless it reconsiders costly programmes that are already under way such as the aircraft carriers and Trident replacement. Carrying on with these will hugely constrain the kind of review that Britain really needs.”
The report welcomes the establishment of the cross-departmental National Security Council and points to recent Green Papers that begin to discuss issues such as climate change, economic marginalisation and mass migration as wider future security threats, but concludes that in spite of this, the actual defence posture has barely escaped Cold War thinking and is still not in tune with the new global security trends. “If these issues are not integral to the review, the size and cost of current projects will determine a role for Britain in international security that bears little relation to the issues of global insecurity and conflict, which will be dominant in the next two to three decades,” says Professor Rogers.
The report thoroughly assesses the problems and their alternatives and calls for:
–A full-scale, integrated inter-departmental review – overseen at Cabinet Office level – that looks beyond power projection and just maintaining the status quo. The Review should address underlying drivers of global insecurity such as climate change, competition for energy resources, poverty and marginalisation, mass migration and trans-national radicalisation. These must be at the forefront of a much broader international security review and need to go far beyond the remit of the Ministry of Defence.
— A reassessment of “big ticket” projects, which are inappropriate for Britain’s security needs in the 21st Century. The aircraft carrier/F-35 programme should be cancelled and Trident scaled down before more money is wasted.
— On defence spending, tough measures need to be instituted, including the establishment of a Defence Procurement Authority, an independent procurement watchdog, to prevent defence programmes spiralling out of control like the Nimrod MR4A fiasco – described in the briefing.
Paul Rogers argues that a new approach to security is essential: “Revolts from the margins such as the Red Shirts in Thailand and the Naxalites in India are indicators of the unstable world we face in the future, and this is before the impact of climate change begins to kick in. The 9/11 attacks showed that even the most powerful state cannot ‘close the castle gates’.”
“Trying to keep the lid on global problems – ‘liddism’ – simply will not work. We need a fundamental rethink of our attitudes to global security, and a comprehensive security review would be a hugely important first step. If the Government persists with the current narrow defence review, it will be a real lost opportunity, right at the start of a new parliament.”
Oxford Research Group (ORG) is an independent London-based non-party organisation and think tank, which seeks to bring about positive change on issues of national and international security. Established in 1982, it is now considered to be one of the UK’s leading global security think tanks.
Click here for the full report (5 pages in PDF format) on the ORG website.
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Dutch Parliament Votes to Cancel First JSF Aircraft
(Source: defense-aerospace.com; issued May-21, 2010)
(By Dutch JSF analyst Johan Boeder; edited by defense-aerospace.com)
THE HAGUE, Netherlands — The Dutch Parliament’s Lower House voted yesterday to cancel the order for the first F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, and to stop Dutch participation in the program’s Initial Operational Test and Evaluation phase.
It also voted to direct the defense ministry to begin anew the Request for Proposal and the complete evaluation of the F-16 replacement program, for which a final decision is due in 2012.
The basis for yesterday’s vote is that the price estimates provided by Lockheed Martin in response to the original Request for Information of 2002, and the Supplemental Request for Information of 2008, are unreliable, as confirmed by the late 2009 reports of the US Joint Estimate Team and US Government Accountability Office.
The motion was proposed by the Labour Party, and was supported by the Socialist Party (SP), Green Left, the right-wing PVV (Freedom Party of Geert Wilders), the Liberal Democrats D66 and the Party for the Animals. The resolution passed with a majority of 79 votes to 71 votes.
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I really like the idea of the Korean T-50 matching the F-35..
The smaller size will give it a good chance!
Any news of a naval PAK FA being developed?
I believe there will be a new Russia aircraft carrier in the near future which surely should have new fifth gen Aircraft.
The last time? How about March 2010? Here are the DCSA announcements back to 2006.
$78m. Refurbishment and purchase of Oliver Perry class frigate. 2010.
$100m “Support of technical services”. 2010.
$115m AH-1F Cobra helicopter upgrade/refurbishment. 2008.
$75m. F-16 Electronic warfare self protection pods (AIDEWS). 2007.
$185m. TOW-II missile system. 2006.
$161m. Harris VHF/HF advanced radio systems. 2006.
$650m. F-16 weapons package. 2006.
$151m. F-16 FALCONUP/STAR upgrade package. 2006.
$1.3b. F-16 MLU upgrade package for F-16 aircraft. 2006.
These are just the FMS announcements dating back until 2006 that have turned into confirmed contracts. “Excess Defence Articles” and direct commercial sales with US contractors are completely separate…
$2.815 BILLION just in these announcements alone. Add to that, acquisition of 18x new build, Block 52 F-16C/D’s, 8c refurbished P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, plus a plethora of helicopters (Cobra, B212 and Iroquois helos, night vision equipment etc) and other platforms and the price tag for US systems provided to Pakistan in the last 4 years alone, tops $5 BILLION easily.
The USA has provided Pakistan with PLENTY of support in recent years. Not as much as Pakistan may want perhaps, but they HAVE done a lot…
I really dont think putting that list of gifts to the PA or PAF is a good way to convince anyone in the subcontinent to buy US weapons, its actually will serve to do the opposite.
Well apart from the fact that the defense ministry has ordered another 124 Arjun tanks and the Mk2 is now in development.
The LCA being condemed to the anals of history may not be a bad thing and not worth crying over.
Better than pouring good money over bad why not stop the LCA at 40 or so aircraft buy the Gripen NG digest the ideas and the technology and start making the MCA as soon as possible.
the longer the LCA drags on the MCA can not be started!
This is really good news, it would be a shame if the gripen or Mig 35 arent chosen for the MMRCA.
Can you not use recoilless guns or say rail guns?
I do not understand the link between the heading the news reported. Also if gates was really interested in making the US NAVY lean you would think he would go for something like the LCS and all it tries to offer in terms of man power reduction.
What is a standard crew of a destroyer? What are the overheads? If you use 246 as the number of people x 60 dollars an hour (for over head) x 356 days x 8 hours a day you end up with $31,527360 per year.
Assuming the overheads in running a ship with the level of technology a destroyer has is very high.
Or you could do it the other way around, which would be lets assume a sailor would get something similar to a graduate engineer which would be somewhere around £25,000 or $25,000 x 246 which is the complement of the ship 6,150000 not considering the other over heads.
Times either figure by 50 and you start talking scary numbers.
Does the US Navy publish figures as to how much it costs to operate and sail a destroyer or submarine?
It is better that the LCS carry on with its reduced crew and be used as a new wave and model to restructure the US NAVY.
I am suprised that lean has not been taken up by the NAVY.
After thought, just because the NAVY kills of the LCS does not mean that littoral combat itself is redundant or not required.
is jsf going down the f22 helter skelter?
Air and Land Forces Subcommittee Opening Statement on Markup
(Source: House of Representatives Armed Services Committee; issued May 14, 2010)
WASHINGTON — The following is the Opening Statement by Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) before the Air and Land Forces Subcommittee of the HASC (House Armed Services Committee) concerning the markup of H.R. 5136, the FY11 National Defense Authorization Act:
“The proposed mark gives first priority to readiness – by providing equipment needed to support our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, providing response capability to meet natural disasters or crisis response here at home, and by addressing the most urgent needs of the services.
“Our proposed legislation for HR 5136 would:
“- Require the Department of Defense to budget for the F-35 competitive engine, beginning in fiscal year 2012. – Limit the obligation of funds in fiscal year 2011 for development of the F-35 aircraft to 75 percent until the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics certifies that all funds for development and procurement of the F-35 competitive propulsion system have been obligated.
“- Limit obligation of funds to 30 F-35 aircraft until certain conditions are met and certified to by either the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics or the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, as delineated in the legislation.
“The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter request this year is for nearly $11 billion and 42 F-35s and one additional F-35A in the supplemental request, as an F-15E combat loss replacement aircraft.
“The Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force plan to procure variants of the F-35 with a total projected acquisition cost of well over $300 billion and a life-cycle cost of over a trillion dollars. Thirty F-35s were authorized and appropriated for this year, fiscal year 2010. Only three of the 14 test aircraft planned for the F-35 program have been delivered. Only 10 percent of the planned test flights last year were flown. Funding for a total of 58 production aircraft has been provided by Congress, beginning in 2006; no production aircraft have been delivered. The first two deliveries are projected for late this year, nearly a year later than last projected. The F-35 program recently experienced a Nunn-McCurdy cost breach, which has a 50 percent cost increase threshold. Development and production problems with the F-35 program recently resulted in the Department of Defense restructuring the program, with development and completion of testing being further delayed.
“Over the next five years, Congress will be asked to approve the production of over 500 aircraft before testing is complete or a full-rate production decision is made. Under the current F-35 procurement schedule, Congress will also be asked, in 2015, to approve the highest annual rate of production for the F-35 program, for 2016, before the full-rate production decision that same year. Senior Department of Defense officials testified this year that ‘Unprecedented’ research and development and procurement concurrency still exists in the program. As a result, significant cost risk still exists in buying large quantities of aircraft with only 3 percent of the flight testing complete.
“The Title I provision recommended in the mark would require that in order obligate funding over and above the 30 F-35 aircraft approved for production in fiscal year 2010, the Pentagon will be required to meet its projections for specific program milestones and objectives the Pentagon currently says the F-35 program will meet.
“Regarding the competitive, alternate engine for the F-35, the F-35 competitive engine has been a part of the F-35 acquisition strategy since 1996. The engine acquisition strategy was planned such that the competitive engine systems development and demonstration would begin approximately four years after the system development and demonstration for the baseline F-35 engine. The committee has always believed that whatever development challenges the F-35 program might have, that to be a balanced program, competition needed to be an element of the engine acquisition program. The committee has believed that competition in the F-35 engine program helps ensure against the operational risk of up to 95 percent of the entire U.S. tactical fighter fleet being grounded due to an engine problem.
“The former Pentagon F-35 program manager also believed that operational risk was a consideration in the F-35 engine program and last year stated, ‘I believe part of the debate that has to occur and is occurring is, is there an operational risk that we are accepting by having just one engine manufactured? … I simply think we focus too much on the discussion about cost benefit and not operational risk benefit.’ Competition has been demonstrated to help limit cost growth in acquisition programs, including as the first alternate engine program did for the F-15, F-16 and F-14. And competition has also been demonstrated to motivate contractor responsiveness, technical innovation, and improve engine maintainability, reliability, and durability. Under the Pentagon’s F-35 plan, over $100 billion will be spent on 2,500 to 3,000 engines. That does not include F-35 partner nation requirements or Foreign Military Sales. The production of the F-35 is planned for the next 25 years. Since 1996, the committee has said that the F-35 engine should not be sole-sourced, to reduce operational risk and accrue the benefits of competition.
“The Pentagon funded the F-35 competitive engine from 1996 until 2006, when in the fiscal year 2007 budget request the competitive engine was omitted from the request. Surprisingly, later that same year the Deputy Secretary of Defense signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the other eight international partners that the F-35 program would include development and procurement of the F136 competitive engine. That MoU still stands.(Emphasis added—Ed.) The only funding for the F-35 competitive engine that has been provided the last four years has been funding provided by Congress, at 80 percent of the required level to fully execute the competitive engine program. In addition, $70 million of the funds authorized and appropriated in fiscal years 2009 and 2010 remains obligated even though the former Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics testified before our subcommittee that all authorized and appropriated funds for the competitive engine would be obligated.
“The proposed mark funds the competitive engine program at $485 million, 50 percent each, in this subcommittee’s and the Seapower and Expeditionary Forces Subcommittee marks.
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The New Rules of War
The visionary who first saw the age of “netwar” coming warns that the U.S. military is getting it wrong all over again. Here’s his plan to make conflict cheaper, smaller, and smarter.
BY JOHN ARQUILLA | MARCH/APRIL 2010Rule 1: “Many and Small” Beats “Few and Large.”
The greatest problem traditional militaries face today is that they are organized to wage big wars and have difficulty orienting themselves to fight small ones. The demands of large-scale conflicts have led to reliance on a few big units rather than on a lot of little ones. For example, the Marines have only three active-duty divisions, the U.S. Army only ten. The Navy has just 11 carrier strike groups, and the Air Force about three dozen attack aircraft “wings.” Almost 1.5 million active service members have been poured into these and a few other supporting organizational structures.
It is no wonder that the U.S. military has exhausted itself in the repeated deployments since the 9/11 attacks. It has a chronic “scaling problem,” making it unable to pursue smaller tasks with smaller numbers. Add in the traditional, hierarchical military mindset, which holds that more is always better (the corollary belief being that one can only do worse with less), and you get massive approaches to little wars.
This was the case during the Vietnam War, too, when the prevailing military organizational structure of the 1960s — not much different from today’s — drove decision-makers to pursue a big-unit war against a large number of very small insurgent units. The final result: 500,000-plus troops deployed, countless billions spent, and a war lost. The iconic images were the insurgents’ AK-47 individual assault rifles, of which there were hundreds of thousands in use at any moment, juxtaposed against the U.S. Air Force’s B-52s, of which just a hundred or so massed together in fruitless attempts to bomb Hanoi into submission.
The same problem persists today, the updated icons being the insurgents’ thousands of improvised explosive devices and the Americans’ relative handful of drones. It is ironic that the U.S. war on terrorism commenced in the Afghan mountains with the same type of B-52 bombers and the same problematic results that attended the Vietnam War.
The U.S. military is not unaware of these problems. The Army has incrementally increased the number of brigades — which typically include between 3,000 and 4,000 trigger-pullers — from less than three dozen in 2001 to almost 50 today. And the Marines now routinely subdivide their forces into “expeditionary units” of several hundred troops each. But these changes hardly begin the needed shift from a military of the “few and large” to one of the “many and small.”
That’s because U.S. military leaders have not sufficiently grasped that even quite small units — like a platoon of 50 or so soldiers — can wield great power when connected to others, especially friendly indigenous forces, and when networking closely with even a handful of attack aircraft.
Yet the evidence is there. For example, beginning in late 2006 in Iraq, the U.S. command shifted little more than 5 percent of its 130,000 troops from about three dozen major (i.e., town-sized) operating bases to more than a hundred small outposts, each manned by about 50 soldiers. This was a dramatic shift from few-large to many-small, and it soon worked wonders in reducing violence, beginning well before the “surge” troops arrived. In part this happened because the physical network of platoon-sized outposts facilitated social networking with the large numbers of small tribal groups who chose to join the cause, forming the core of the “Awakening” movement.
The Pentagon’s reluctance to see the new possibilities — reflected in the shrilly repeated calls for more troops, first in Iraq, then in Afghanistan — stems in part from the usual generalized fear of change, but also from concern that a many-and-small force would have trouble against a traditional massed army. Say, like North Korea’s.
Then again, perhaps the best example of a many-and-small military that worked against foes of all sizes was the Roman legion. For many centuries, legionary maniples (Latin for “handfuls”) marched out — in their flexible checkerboard formations — and beat the massive, balky phalanxes of traditional foes, while dealing just as skillfully with loose bands of tribal fighters.
Rule 2: Finding Matters More Than Flanking.
Ever since Theban general Epaminondas overloaded his army’s left wing to strike at the Spartan right almost 2,400 years ago at Leuctra, hitting the enemy in the flank has been the most reliable maneuver in warfare. Flank attacks can be seen in Frederick the Great’s famous “oblique order” in his 18th-century battles, in Erwin Rommel’s repeated “right hooks” around the British in North Africa in 1941, and in Norman Schwarzkopf’s famous “left hook” around the Iraqis in 1991. Flanking has quite a pedigree.
Flanking also formed a basis for the march up Mesopotamia by U.S. forces in 2003. But something odd happened this time. In the words of military historian John Keegan, the large Iraqi army of more than 400,000 troops just “melted away.” There were no great battles of encirclement and only a handful of firefights along the way to Baghdad. Instead, Iraqis largely waited until their country was overrun and then mounted an insurgency based on tip-and-run attacks and bombings.
Thus did war cease to be driven by mass-on-mass confrontation, but rather by a hider-finder dynamic. In a world of networked war, armies will have to redesign how they fight, keeping in mind that the enemy of the future will have to be found before it can be fought. To some extent this occurred in the Vietnam War, but that was a conflict during which the enemy obligingly (and quite regularly) massed its forces in major offensives: held off in 1965, defeated in 1968 and 1972, and finally winning in 1975.
In Iraq, there weren’t mass assaults, but a new type of irregular warfare in which a series of small attacks no longer signaled buildup toward a major battle. This is the path being taken by the Taliban in Afghanistan and is clearly the concept of global operations used by al Qaeda.
At the same time, the U.S. military has shown it can adapt to such a fight. Indeed, when it finally improved its position in Iraq, the change was driven by a vastly enhanced ability to find the enemy. The physical network of small outposts was linked to and enlivened by a social network of tribal fighters willing to work with U.S. forces. These elements, taken together, shone a light on al Qaeda in Iraq, and in the glare of this illumination the militants were easy prey for the small percentage of coalition forces actually waging the campaign against them.
Think of this as a new role for the military. Traditionally, they’ve seen themselves largely as a “shooting organization”; in this era, they will also have to become a “sensory organization.”
This approach can surely work in Afghanistan as well as it has in Iraq — and in counterinsurgency campaigns elsewhere — so long as the key emphasis is placed on creating the system needed for “finding.” In some places, friendly tribal elements might be less important than technological means, most notably in cyberspace, al Qaeda’s “virtual safe haven.”
As war shifts from flanking to finding, the hope is that instead of exhausting one’s military in massive expeditions against elusive foes, success can be achieved with a small, networked corps of “finders.” So a conflict like the war on terror is not “led” by some great power; rather, many participate in it, with each adding a piece to the mosaic that forms an accurate picture of enemy strength and dispositions.
This second shift — to finding — has the potential to greatly empower those “many and small” units made necessary by Rule 1. All that is left is to think through the operational concept that will guide them.
Rule 3: Swarming Is the New Surging.
Terrorists, knowing they will never have an edge in numbers, have pioneered a way of war that allows them to make the most of their slender resources: swarming. This is a form of attack undertaken by small units coming from several directions or hitting many targets at the same time. Since 9/11, al Qaeda has mounted but a few major stand-alone strikes — in Bali, Madrid, and London — while the network has conducted multiple significant swarming campaigns in Turkey, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia featuring “wave attacks” aimed at overloading their targets’ response capabilities. Such attacks have persisted even in post-surge Iraq where, as Gen. David Petraeus noted in a recent speech, the enemy shows a “sophistication” among the militants “in carrying out simultaneous attacks” against major government targets.
Perhaps the clearest example of a terrorist swarm was the November 2008 attack on Mumbai, apparently mounted by the Lashkar-e-Taiba group. The assault force consisted of just 10 fighters who broke into five two-man teams and struck simultaneously at several different sites. It took more than three days to put them down — and cost the lives of more than 160 innocents — as the Indian security forces best suited to deal with this problem had to come from distant New Delhi and were configured to cope with a single threat rather than multiple simultaneous ones.
In another sign of the gathering swarm, the August 2008 Russian incursion into Georgia, rather than being a blast from the Cold War past, heralded the possibility that more traditional armies can master the art of omnidirectional attack. In this instance, Russian regular forces were augmented by ethnic militias fighting all over the area of operations — and there was swarming in cyberspace at the same time. Indeed, the distributed denial of service attack, long a staple of cyberwarriors, is a model form of swarming. And in this instance, Georgian command and control was seriously disrupted by the hackers.
Simultaneous attack from several directions might be at the very cutting edge in conflict, but its lineage is quite old. Traditional tribal warfare, whether by nomadic horse archers or bush fighters, always featured some elements of swarms. The zenith of this kind of fighting probably came with the 13th-century Mongols, who had a name for this doctrine: “Crow Swarm.” When the attack was not carried out at close quarters by charging horsemen, but was instead conducted via arrows raining down on massed targets, the khans called it “Falling Stars.” With such tactics, the Mongols carved out the largest empire the world has ever seen, and kept it for a few centuries.
But swarming was eclipsed by the rise of guns in the 15th century, which strongly favored massed volley fire. Industrial processes encouraged even more massing, and mechanization favored large flank maneuvers more than small swarms. Now again, in an age of global interdependence replete with advanced information technologies, even quite small teams of fighters can cause huge amounts of disruption. There is an old Mongol proverb: “With 40 men you can shake the world.” Look at what al Qaeda did with less than half that number on Sept. 11, 2001.
This point was made by the great British strategist B.H. Liddell Hart in his biography of T.E. Lawrence, a master of the swarm in his own right. Liddell Hart, writing in 1935, predicted that at some point “the old concentration of force is likely to be replaced by an intangibly ubiquitous distribution of force — pressing everywhere, yet assailable nowhere.”
Now, swarming is making a comeback, but at a time when few organized militaries are willing or able to recognize its return. For the implications of this development — most notably, that fighting units in very small numbers can do amazing things if used to swarm — are profoundly destabilizing. The most radical change is this: Standing armies can be sharply reduced in size, if properly reconfigured and trained to fight in this manner. Instead of continually “surging” large numbers of troops to trouble spots, the basic response of a swarm force would be to go swiftly, in small numbers, and strike the attackers at many points. In the future, it will take a swarm to defeat a swarm.
Almost 20 years ago, I began a debate about networks that blossomed into an unlikely friendship with Vice Adm. Art Cebrowski, the modern strategic thinker most likely to be as well remembered as Alfred Thayer Mahan, the great American apostle of sea power. He was the first in the Pentagon power structure to warm to my notions of developing fighting networks, embracing the idea of opening lots of lateral communications links between “sensors and shooters.” We disagreed, however, about the potential of networks. Cebrowski thought that “network-centric warfare” could be used to improve the performance of existing tools — including aircraft carriers — for some time to come. I thought that networking implied a wholly new kind of navy, one made up of small, swift vessels, many of them remotely operated. Cebrowski, who passed away in late 2005, clearly won this debate, as the U.S. Navy remains heavily invested in being a “few-large” force — if one that is increasingly networked. In an implicit nod to David Ronfeldt’s and my ideas, the Navy even has a Netwar Command now.
Swarming has also gained some adherents. The most notable has been Marine Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, who famously used swarm tactics in the last great Pentagon war game, “Millennium Challenge 2002,” to sink several aircraft carriers at the outset of the imagined conflict. But rather than accept that something quite radical was going on, the referees were instructed to “refloat” the carriers, and the costly game — its price tag ran in the few hundred millions — continued. Van Riper walked out. Today, some in the U.S. military still pursue the idea of swarming, mostly in hopes of employing large numbers of small unmanned aerial vehicles in combat. But military habits of mind and institutional interests continue to reflect a greater audience for surges than swarms.
What if senior military leaders wake up and decide to take networks and swarming absolutely seriously? If they ever do, it is likely that the scourges of terrorism and aggression will become less a part of the world system. Such a military would be smaller but quicker to respond, less costly but more lethal. The world system would become far less prone to many of the kinds of violence that have plagued it. Networking and swarming are the organizational and doctrinal keys, respectively, to the strategic puzzle that has been waiting to be solved in our time.
A networked U.S. military that knows how to swarm would have much smaller active manpower — easily two-thirds less than the more than 2 million serving today — but would be organized in hundreds more little units of mixed forces. The model for military intervention would be the 200 Special Forces “horse soldiers” who beat the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan late in 2001. Such teams would deploy quickly and lethally, with ample reserves for relieving “first waves” and dealing with other crises. At sea, instead of concentrating firepower in a handful of large, increasingly vulnerable supercarriers, the U.S. Navy would distribute its capabilities across many hundreds of small craft armed with very smart weapons. Given their stealth and multiple uses, submarines would stay while carriers would go. And in the air, the “wings” would reduce in size but increase in overall number, with mere handfuls of aircraft in each. Needless to say, networking means that these small pieces would still be able to join together to swarm enemies, large or small.
Is such a shift feasible? Absolutely. Big reductions in the U.S. military are nothing new. The massive demobilization after World War II aside, active forces were reduced 40 percent in the few years after the Vietnam War and by another third right after the end of the Cold War. But the key is not so much in cutting as it is in redesigning and rethinking.
But what happens if the status quo prevails and the potential of this new round of changes in strategic affairs is ignored or misinterpreted? Failure awaits, at ruinous cost.
The most likely form catastrophe could take is that terrorist networks would stay on their feet long enough to acquire nuclear weapons. Even a handful of warheads in Osama bin Laden’s hands would give him great coercive power, as a network cannot be targeted for retaliation the same way a country can. Deterrence will lie in tatters. If there is ever to be a nuclear Napoleon, he will come from a terrorist network.
Within the U.S. military, the danger is that senior commanders will fall back on a fatalism driven by their belief that both congressional and industrial leaders will thwart any effort at radical change. I have heard this objection countless times since the early 1990s, repeated mantra-like, all the way up to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Thus the mighty U.S. war machine is like a Gulliver trussed up by Lilliputian politicians and businessmen.
The irony, however, is that the U.S. military has never been in a better position to gain acceptance for truly transformational change. Neither party in Congress can afford to be portrayed as standing in the way of strategic progress, and so, whatever the Pentagon asks for, it gets. As for defense contractors, far from driving the agenda, they are much too willing to give their military customers exactly what they demand (rather than, perhaps, something better). If the U.S. armed forces call for smaller, smarter weapons and systems to support swarming, they will get them.
Beyond the United States, other countries’ security forces are beginning to think along the lines of “many and small,” are crafting better ways to “find,” and are learning to swarm. Chinese naval thought today is clearly moving in this direction. Russian ground forces are, too. Needless to say, terrorist networks are still in the lead, and not just al Qaeda. Hezbollah gave quite a demonstration of all three of the new rules of war in its summer 2006 conflict with Israel, a virtual laboratory test of nation versus network — in which the network more than held its own.
For the U.S. military, failing a great leap forward in self-awareness of the need for radical change, a downward budgetary nudge is probably the best approach — despite President Barack Obama’s unwillingness to extend his fiscal austerity program to security-related expenditures. This could take the form of a freeze on defense spending levels, to be followed by several years of, say, 10 percent annual reductions. To focus the redesign effort, a moratorium would be declared on all legacy-like systems (think aircraft carriers, other big ships, advanced fighters, tanks, etc.) while they are subjected to searching review. It should not be assumed that the huge sums invested in national defense have been wisely spent.
To most Americans who think that being strong on defense means devoting more resources and building bigger systems, this suggestion to cut spending will sound outrageous. But being smarter about defense might lower costs even as effectiveness improves. This pattern has held throughout the transformations of the last few decades, whether in farming or in industry. Why should the military be exempt?
Interesting article that fits in the debate we seem to be having about the LCS http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/the_new_rules_of_war?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full.
Although the author seems to deride the aluminium hulled LCS at the start of the report he is encouraging smaller Naval vessels to cover more ground be linked up by network and attack in swarms. Which is perfect behaviour for this ship. Just because it is called a literal combat ship does not mean it can not be used for other roles.
Combined the speed and range of the LCS with the news below and one could imaging some very interesting scenarios being played out and used to gain overal control of the oceans by the US navy in a new manner.
It is not a bad time for the USN to realise that they will not always carry on being the big spenders and afford to have expensive ships that are expensive to man and expensive to replace.
A fleet of 4 or five of these boats, 2 with missiles 1 with anti sub torpedo and another with a long range radar system could make things interesting for a traditionally armed and shipped adversary.
I hope they do not cancel the LCS it would be a grave error .
U.S. 7th Fleet Controls Tomahawk Launch from 5,000 Miles Away
(Source: US Navy; issued May 14, 2010)
USS CHEYENNE, At Sea — Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Cheyenne (SSN-773) in conjunction with Commander, U.S. 7th Fleet and members of Naval Special Warfare Group (NSWG) 3 successfully fired a Block IV-E Tomahawk Land Attack Missile May 5.
The missile launch took place off the southern coast of California into China Lake Test Range and marks the first time a forward-deployed operational command acted as the Tomahawk strike coordinator and primary missile controller for an operational test launch.
“The Navy’s ability to conduct strike operations on re-locatable targets is currently very challenging,” said Master Chief Fire Controlman (SW) David Brewer, U.S. 7th Fleet Tomahawk strike coordinator. “By proving an operational commander’s ability to use the Tactical Tomahawk Command and Control System’s ability to receive real-time targeting coordinates and applying them to a tactical Tomahawk missile in flight will significantly improve the Navy’s ability to shape the battlefield and project power from the sea, particularly when naval surface strike is the only fires option available to the commander.”
“I am proud of the work we have accomplished during this exercise,” he said. “With this being the staff’s first time providing real time operations in flight, the job by the entire team was exceptional. The training value gained from a live firing event has no substitute, and will absolutely improve C7F’s ability to conduct actual launch operations when required.
NSWG-3 provided updated target data used by 7th Fleet to modify the missile’s flight path, resulting in a destroyed target. The test launch demonstrated a complex strike capability and was a tremendous success for all involved.
“Teamwork is critical in naval fires,” Brewer said. “This test launch is the ultimate use of different operational assets we provided during this exercise to achieve common goal.”
This test continues the Navy’s formal government testing of the Tactical Tomahawk Weapons Systems from surface/sub-surface launch platforms.
The Tomahawk missile is ship- and submarine-launched and was first employed operationally during Desert Storm. Since then, the missile has been heralded for its accuracy and lethality in numerous operations. The tactical Tomahawk boasts several enhancements as demonstrated today, which increase warfighter effectiveness and responsiveness, while significantly reducing acquisition and life cycle costs.
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So they are happy that they managed to fire 3 missiles in 5 months? hmm what happens when there is a war?
Or is this another bit of poor reporting by the news paper.
Also if the target ballistic missile in a anti-ballistic missile test goes off course because of fuel leakage should that really be a show stopper?
Unless the missile heads of a civilian area surely it would have been good to test the ABM system, or was there something else a foot?
Doesnt the tunguska and the pantsir take this concept still?
Designed to operate in the most dangerous arena in naval warfare yet in an armament contest come up second best to a wet teabag…
Too much emphasis on speed, as such LCS has been subject to severe over-engineering; 36~38kts would have presented a much more reasonable target for a 3,000ton vessel
Designed to operate spitting distance from the shore but lack even a basic as commodity as a real medium calibre weapon (argue all you like that NGS isn’t a goal, that’s as maybe but the more missions you remove from the list the less justifiable LCS as a programme becomes)
Not an OHP replacement but because there is NO OHP replacement it’s now unnecessarily large and unwieldy and instead of it’s original guise it’s now akin to a modern take of a Type 81 frigate with rocket boosters and a nice big space at the back for helicopters :rolleyes:
Sorry what do you mean by OHP? Am i mistaking the idea of the ships? Arent the mission modules mean that you do not need to have fixed weaponry on the ship?
Surely people cant claim to know what is contained in all the modules or be able to predict what will happen to the ship in the future. Remember at this stage it is still development. A lot could change. Would not be surprised to see Tomahawks or AGM 84’s
just got this from Wikipedia and I can not see anything alarming in the idea of what it is supposed to be.
The design for Independence (LCS 2) is based on a high-speed trimaran (Benchijigua Express) hull built by Austal (Henderson, Australia). The 418-foot (127-meter) surface combatant design calls for a crew of 40 sailors, while the trimaran hull should enable the ship to reach sustainable speeds of nearly 50 knots (60 mph; 90 km/h) and range as far as 10,000 nautical miles (19,000 km).[citation needed]
With 11,000 cubic meters of payload volume, the ship is designed with enough payload and volume to carry out one mission while a separate mission module is in reserve. The large flight deck, 1,030 m2 (11,100 sq ft), will support operation of two SH-60 Seahawk helicopters, multiple UAVs, or one large CH-53 Sea Stallion-class helicopter (which is larger than a V-22 transport). The stable trimaran hull will allow flight operations up to sea state 5.[9]
Fixed core capabilities will be carried for self-defense and command and control. However unlike traditional fighting ships with fixed armament such as guns and missiles, innovative and tailored mission modules will be configured for one mission package at a time. Modules may consist of manned aircraft, unmanned vehicles, off-board sensors, or mission-manning detachments – all in an expandable open systems architecture.
The large interior volume and payload is greater than larger destroyers and is sufficient to serve as a high-speed transport and maneuver platform. The mission bay is 15,200 square feet (1,410 m2), and takes up most of the deck below the hangar and flight deck.[10]
In addition to cargo or container-sized mission modules, the bay can carry four lanes of multiple Strykers, armored Humvees, and their associated troops. An elevator allows air transport of packages the size of a twenty-foot long shipping container that can be moved into the mission bay while at sea. A side access ramp allows for vehicle roll-on/roll-off loading to a dock and allows the ship to even transport the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle.[11]
The habitability area is under the bridge with bunks for many personnel. The helm is controlled by joysticks instead of traditional steering wheels.[12]
The Independence also has an integrated LOS Mast, Sea Giraffe 3D Radar and SeaStar Safire FLIR. Side and forward surfaces are angled for reduced radar profile. In addition, H-60 series helicopters provide airlift, rescue, anti-submarine, radar picket and anti-ship capabilities with torpedoes and missiles.
The Raytheon Evolved SeaRAM missile defense system is installed on the hangar roof. The SeaRAM combines the sensors of the Phalanx 1B close-in weapon system with an 11-missile launcher for the Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM), creating an autonomous system.[13]
To reduce the risk of fire on the all aluminum ship, many parts are protected from fire, and smoking is not permitted on board.[14]
Northrop Grumman has demonstrated sensor fusion of on and off-board systems in the Integrated Combat Management System (ICMS) used on Independence.[15]
Independence has a Interior Communications Center that can be curtained off from the rest of bridge instead of the heavily protected Combat Information Center found on Navy warships.[16]
Austal contends that the Independence will use a third less fuel than Freedom, but the Congressional Budget Office found that fuel would account for 18 percent or less of the total lifetime cost of Freedom while it was unable to judge the fuel usage of Independence and it any case the higher purchase price of Independence would dominate its lifetime costs.[17]
Cant wait to see the details in the cuts.
Dont understand how they will reach 300mph..When i first read that i thought they were going to do a stealthy tiltrotor concept of some sort.