The only solution in the end is a stable government in Somalia! Anything else is really just fiddling around the edges.
Unless the global community is either prepared to lay waste to the pirates bases with all the associated human cost or put troops on the ground and impose law on an ungovernable country this situation will continue.
Agreed on all accounts, but how likely is any of that to happen?
I think we can all agree that the best and probably only permanent solution to this problem is a stable, responsible working government with national army, police and coast guard in Somalia. However, since none of those things are remotely likely to happy, I suggest we drop that part from this discussion and focus more on what the international naval force operating in the region could practically do now, or in the near future to better re-dress the escalating piracy problem.
The international navies are patrolling a VAST area of sea, no amount of technology or clever convoy plans or placing of platforms/ships with helicopters will change that. Remember even during the height of success of the allied convoy system during WW2 ships were still being sunk.
Agreed. Which is why I am advocating for a fundamental shift in tactics and ROE when dealing with pirates. Instead of scaring them off one ship only to attack another, why don’t the navies start to take these guys out of circulation permanently with missiles of good old fashioned naval gunfire?
If you kill pirates faster than they could be recruited, piracy goes down. The increased risks of piracy will also help to reduce the supply of people willing to act as pirates. Its not a complex equation.
Fitting ships with panic rooms that the crews can lock themselves into in the event of attack has been mildly effective. Shutting the engines down (and ensuring the pirates can’t start them), getting the crew safe and getting a panic message out has worked recently. This has the advantage with the crew safe in the panic room and the ship sitting dead in the water of allowing the naval commandos of whatever nation gets there to get on with their job. Problem is not many ship owners will actually make the necessary changes to the ship ensuring there is still plenty of vulnerable prey for the pirates!
Agreed. But that is not as good a solution as it may seem at first glance. In addition to the cost of installing panic rooms, as others have already pointed out, there could be potential problems with panic rooms if the pirates gain access.
Its not hard to imagine a few unlucky crew members not being able to get to the panic room in time being used as a leverage to get his buddies to open to the door.
Now you have a situation where the pirates are locked in the panic room with the hostages when the naval commandos arrive. It would be hard to see how the commandos would be able to successfully free the hostages without it turning into a bloodbath.
Piracy is not just a problem around Somalia, though it is logically concentrated around the chokepoints in the world’s main shipping routes.
One hot spot at a time my friend. 😉 Besides, if the tactics used around Somalia are effective, there is little reason why they would not also be effective when applied to the other piracy hot spots.
Poverty doesn’t absolve persons of their individual responsibility but it is clear that in a poor area people with money can get (away with) things that other can’t i.e. if the environment is poor, this provides a safe habitat (you don’t have to be a ship boarder: to earn some money or palm grease, poor people will aid and abet or at least not report the actual thugs. See hard drug producing countries: you can’t just eradicate coca or poppy crops, you have to give the poor farmer a viable alternative to make a living. A coca farmer is part of the production system but not necessarily a thug or criminal)
Well I think that is not the most accurate of comparisons, since in the case of Somalia, there are no law enforcement agencies trying to close these guys down. They effectively own and run most of the coastal towns. As such, there is less need for paying off for silence of greasing palms.
I would also suggest that it is inaccurate to compare pirates to poppy growers. A more accurate comparison would be between pirates and drug gang enforcers. Would anyone here have any moral objections to suggesting police should shoot to kill against those guys? I am merely arguing for the same policy against pirates.
These are not cute and fluffy (or more accurately, drunk and funny I guess) Captain Sparrow and jolly maties sailing about fighting the evil East Indian Trading Company of the 21st century here. Good honest merchants have been killed and injured when they tried to resist these thugs.
I’m arguing its way past time the kiddy gloves come off and these criminals get the treatment their kind deserves.
I don’t agree. If convoys succeed in preventing pirates from taking ships and holding them and their crews to ransom, it will eventually put them out of business. On the other hand, convoys could also be looked on as bait – ‘here are the ships you’re interested in’ – enticing the pirates to attack and providing the naval escorts with the opportunity to destroy them.
Please refer to my previous post in response to Al, where I think I have made my point as to why I think escorts is only a stop-gap measure at best.
This has been the most successful method, as there has not been a single ship hi-jacked that was under the protection of a PLAN escorted convoy.
However, a convey system is very hard to implement, especially a systematic one that would cover all shipping.
As with many formula of this kind, the entire concept is only as strong as its weakest link. You will need to convoy 100% of shipping passing through the area for it to effectively starve out the pirates. If only a tiny proportion of ships tries to go it alone and get jacked, that would be enough to sustain the pirates.
What more, an operation of this kind would require a vast increase in the number of warships and other naval assets in the area in order to implement. And that effectively shifts the costs permanently onto the shoulders of world navies. I dare say that that is not the ideal solution at least in the view of the navies involved.
What more, this would only be an effective measure for as long as it is enforced. As soon as the navies stop convoy escorts (as is likely to happen as soon as attacks drop to a suitably low level and politicians ‘back home’ start pointing to the costs and demanding the convoys stop as they is ‘no longer a threat’), it is almost certain that the piracy problem will re-surface in a very short period of time again.
The broader socio-economic arguments I would see as outside the scope of a thread entitled ‘How navies can more effectively combat Somali pirates’.
Fully agreed.
However we are realistically in the realms of statisical correllations rather than causal relationships and the greater the wealth disparity and sense of injustice the more predatory behaviour occurs.
I would suggest that the strength of law enforcement would also be a major factor, as invariably in pretty much all countries and societies, the law enforcement departments put more priority and resources to enforcing law and order in richer (and more powerful and influential) areas than in the run-down poor areas.
Many police forces in the world have demonstrated time and again that crime could be greatly reduced in poor and crime-ridden areas with more patrolling and a great police presence.
However, because of budgetary constrains, these exercises have tended to be short-term campaigns instead of long-term change in enforcement patterns, but I feel we are getting a little off-topic here. 😉
If we wish to erradicate piracy we need to prevent it occuring.
The current situation is hugely expensive, puts innocent (both service and civillian) lives at risk and is not sustainable.
Fully agreed.
Convoys with fast well armed units (be they surface or aviation) able to intercept pirates en route to their victims (as recommended here by flanker and nocuts)
This has been the most successful method, as there has not been a single ship hi-jacked that was under the protection of a PLAN escorted convoy.
However, a convey system is very hard to implement, especially a systematic one that would cover all shipping.
As with many formula of this kind, the entire concept is only as strong as its weakest link. You will need to convoy 100% of shipping passing through the area for it to effectively starve out the pirates. If only a tiny proportion of ships tries to go it alone and get jacked, that would be enough to sustain the pirates.
What more, an operation of this kind would require a vast increase in the number of warships and other naval assets in the area in order to implement. And that effectively shifts the costs permanently onto the shoulders of world navies. I dare say that that is not the ideal solution at least in the view of the navies involved.
What more, this would only be an effective measure for as long as it is enforced. As soon as the navies stop convoy escorts (as is likely to happen as soon as attacks drop to a suitably low level and politicians ‘back home’ start pointing to the costs and demanding the convoys stop as they is ‘no longer a threat’), it is almost certain that the piracy problem will re-surface in a very short period of time again.
Protection embarked on vessels (as recommended here by me)
A logical solution, however, from what I have gathered, insurance companies are firmly against this and would not insure armed ships, or would charge a much higher rate(ludicrous I know!).
To illustrate this, I remember there was a case where the PLAN task force decided to airdrop a spec op team onto a merchant ship that was too slow to keep up with one of their convoys to act as guards. The captain of the ship was mightily peeved by this apparently (until the pirates showed up and the spec op team scared them off with warning shots). But there must have been formal complaints, as the PLAN has never done this again AFAIK.
Attacking bases ashore (not recommended here yet and terribly risky as highlighted in Somalia previously)
Not to mention the huge number of hostages held.
But ……….. to erradicate requires I believe a different strategy. One which I suspect would be cheaper, more effective and more just. Some hearts and minds work with the fishermen and ex-fishermen as part of the force option would be a worth a go as well.
Well, personally, I hold out little hope that ex-fishermen would have much of a fighting chance against well organized, decently armed and almost certainly ruthless criminal gangs that run much of Somalia.
The biggest problem with Somalia is that there is no law, and the only authority is the side with the most guys and guns.
Unlike for example the drug problem in Latin America, its not that national law enforcement agencies does not know where the bad guys are that is the problem, its rather that there are no law enforcement agencies in Somalia to go after the bad guys to start with. Pirates run the coastal towns.
Qualitatively and capability wise the IAF is way ahead of the PRC today. By 2025 (if all goes as planned) it’ll be second only to the USAF. The J-20 won’t change that- but a lifting of the arms embargo might (i.e. not likely).
In the real world, we call the above ‘hot air’.
And since when in the history of the IAF has any of its projects ‘all goes as planned’?
Second only to the USAF? You are displaying as much capacity for rational and realistic thought as your ACM…
As for the ACM, rather rash statements (probably juiced-up by the journo) who knows, maybe the ACM’s seen the E-721 😉 (:p).
Or maybe you are just making up crap to try and flame?
I’m not sure how things are done where you are from, but where I’m from, baseless nonsense has the same weight in a discussion as a fart. Probably less so in fact, since a fart is at least unintentional.
IAF operates over 100 Su 30 MKIs and there is nothing in the Chinese inventory that is as capable. May be the J 11 B with upgrades will but the MKI is in for a deep modernization as well.
Like I say because of the difference in growth and military budgets its only a matter of time before this proposition changes. The J 20 will probably be in service before the FGFA.
Like Showtime said its a point that you can argue over and over lets stick to our opinions
That is a rather silly comparison. If one could be bothered, one could list all sorts of weapons systems the PLA has in it’s inventory that has no Indian or IAF equivalent.
Besides, the MKI’s only practical advantage over PLAAF flankers is the radar, but with AWACS support, that advantage is rendered mute. And the PLAAF operates a great many more Flankers and AWACS, not to mention all the J10 regiments.
In any shooting war, the IAF has little practical technological edge but faces a huge quantative disadvantage. and that’s not even touching on China’s real advantage over India in any real war – logistics.
IAF has long since lost the edge it once enjoyed over the PLAAF in the early 90s. It’s strategy of relying on expensive imports instead of indigenous R&D has been the chief cause of it’s stagnation.
When one read such silly and petty comments, one cannot but feel that it is jealousy and spite speaking. And it really is a disgrace that someone of his position would stoop so low. But If the ACM’s ridiculous remarks represent his real views, then the future of the IAF looks bleak indeed.
Thanks for the answers on the “S” duct. So there is no “full” S duct and the compressor face is hidden by gentle horizontal and vertical cant of the air-intake/trunking. There seems to be some chins in the intake also. So what is the consensus on the forum? Is the whole Engine face hidden or only a portion of engine face hidden? It is very difficult to believe that compressor face will not add to the RCS (with or without radar blocker) Because otherwise why even bother with curve (?) in the intakes etc.
Careful now, some people don’t like questions that lead to possibly uncomfortable answers…
The lesson that was learned in World War I and re-learned in World War II was that to the most effective, efficient way to use naval assets to protect merchant vessels is to institute a system of escorted convoys. Yes, there would be objections from shipowners who will say it would interfere with their schedules. Yes, the navies don’t like it because it’s tedious compared to glamorous zooming around the ocean ‘hunting’ the bad guys. But it works. So, organise convoys and provide them with air and ship escorts.
Fully agreed, and it seems the only the PLAN is pursing such a strategy. But that is only an effective means of prevention. It does little to address the core issue of how to eradicate the pirate problem once and for all.
Some interesting ideas coming forward. 🙂
I have always been highly spectacle of the so-call ‘economic’ rationale as a justification for the pirates.
What was the Somali fishing population? What is the number of Somali pirates?
I would dare say the former is on an order of magnitudes greater than the latter, and if that is indeed the case, it really begs the question – if so many other former fishermen do not need to turn to piracy in order to eek out a living, is piracy really the last ditch furlong hope these people have been driven to, as some in the media would like to have us believe, or is this more of a career choice motivated by greed?
If it is the latter as I suspect, than economic development will do little to dissuade piracy. Because lets face it, with an investment to return ratio as astronomically high as with this ‘business model’, even westerners would be getting into the act if presented with such an opportunity.
The point is that no matter how wealthy a nation/people, there will always be the unlucky, discontented or greedy that will form the criminal underclass. This segment of society cannot be eradicated, and it seems to be universal in all societies. So long as there are such rich pickings to be had, there will always be people willing to go out and try their luck.
I submit it is the high rewards for modest risk situation presented in the region that is the chief cause of the piracy problem, instead of economic reasons.
Just as a purely hypothetical example, if the RN or USN as well as the national police forces in the UK and US all disappeared overnight, but the population of both the US and UK retained their wealth and all other things remain constant. I would dare say it would not be long before you have gangs of criminals in the UK and US taking to the seas with SA80s and M16s if they could also expect millions in ransom for every ship hi-jacked.
If you follow this example, than you will see that economic means alone will be even more ineffectual than military force by itself.
At the end of the day, what will stop piracy is if people are no longer willing to go out and commit piracy. You convince people of that by showing them that committing acts of piracy will eventually lead to you in Davy Jones locker or locked away in a maximum security prison for a good proportion of your life.
Maybe the best way would be to make sure there is no need for folks to turn priate: economic development.
Well foreign over fishing has certainly played its part if helping to supply the desperate men the pirate leaders need to do their bidding.
However, what you are suggesting is high problematic for a number of reasons.
Chiefly, Somalia has no working government, as such, there is no means to effect economic development short of sending in an occupational army to in effect build a state out of that bowl of wrong.
What more, I do not subscribe to the idea that being born with a poor lot in life somehow justifies you to take up a weapon and go robbing other hard working folk out of their wealth and goods to make your own situation better.
Call me old fashioned, but if you behave like a criminal, then you should be treated as one. And rewarding thuggish thieving behavior with aid will only encourage other down trodden people to follow this perverse example.
There are plenty of needy people in the world who has not taken to piracy that deserves my aid money a hell of a lot more than Somali pirates, no matter how pathetic their life story might have been.
cheaper, lighter, easier to manufacture and maintain (pull out engine and remove the whole blocker like they do it on Super Bugs)
It will possible be need to design engine compressor vanes and first stage to deal with flow changes/vortices caused by blocker, but all we know that T-50 max speed of Mach 2.0+ class, supercruise and low RCS were important points in AF list, so likely WT tests have shown that it can be done with blockers.
A pretty impressive list of positives I see, and it should be cheaper and easier to design and implement than an S-duct. I wonder why then, that the Americans and Chinese have opted for S-ducts on all their fifth gen designs…
How did the RCS of the X32 compare to the X35?
It is interesting that the PAKFA is the only fifth gen fighter design that will be mass produced that does not have an s-duct.
While the benefits of an S-duct to stealth is well established, are radar blockers really a good enough alternative? Hows does it impact on supercruise potential, RCS, weight and maintenance?
Where should the LCA fly from?…it is being tested and built in the same city where Aero India is being held.
So its being built and tested at the same airport? Or are you suggestion the distance between two airports in the same city is too great for it to manage?
BTW you are looking at a mockup as others have said.
And FYI, I was the first to notice that it was a mock up, but the first impression remains.
Why do they need a mock up? The planes doing the flight display can also double up as static display planes, but surely India has enough LCAs built to spare enough actual planes for both?
Air shows is all about the ‘show’, and it is always better to send in real planes instead of mock ups, especially when you are the host country and its not going to cost a bomb to get the actual planes to the show. Hell, its not like any of the other major players in the Indian market are having any difficulty getting real flying examples to the show.
What would it say?
“You are actually bigger than me!”
thanks pal…
I feel the most awkward thing on the J-20 its front landing gear, anyone feel the same?…. it looks “skinny” and needs to put some muscle like the T-50. (remember what Arnold told Obama during election campaign?:D)
I don’t think the PAKFA would say that if the J20 was standing next to it. 😉