plawolfAs you said Taiwan is a free society. In a free society people can voice their opinion. If people on Taiwan think they should declare formal independence (they are a own state defacto already), then I see no reason why they should not do so.
If the majority of the people there should vote to be independent then why not ?
so? even in a ‘not so free’ society as china people still gets to voice their opinions. and there is no such thing as ‘taiwanese’ as a nationality, the people of taiwan are the same as the people on the other side of the strait in all intents and purposes. the only difference is the way of government. ‘taiwan nationalism’ is a recent creation by the people who has the most to gain from the island’s formal independence.
the two sides might live under different forms of government, but that doesnt make the two sides two different nations and peoples, and if there is to be a vote, then all the people on both sides should be included. but i guess the will of the people shouldnt apply there, cos…well cos we are talking about the ‘evil commy chinese’ here. :rolleyes:
plawolfWell, as mentioned already, there won’t be any fighting. Reasons as mentioned that too many have too much to lose. Having said that, China if in a complete fantasy ( and it would have to be a fantasy because any overt action is a long term loss ) strike on Taiwan, would mean China would be hurt from a distance, without the need for any U.S. military standoff in the traditional sense. There would be a lot of oil and resources that ship to it by boat that just would no longer get there. It would be economic ruin for the current economic model it has. World banks tied up in China would be goofed bad, so no matter where you are, expect your stock portfolio to take a rather large hit. China would be treated like a leper but other economies around the world would suffer also. Again, a loser scenario all the way around.
“Well, as mentioned already, there won’t be any fighting.”
you mentioned it, sure, but you havent given any convincing arguments in support of that believe.
so far the only reasons i seem to see in favour of the view are:
1) ‘if taiwan declears independence, the US will come to its aid no matter the costs and reprecusions, and those chinese wont dare fight the might US of A, one carrier will blast the reds to hell in a week…’. :rolleyes:
the same arguments were tossed around to support the idea that china wont dare go into korea, that it was all a bluff. i wonder if they were still saying that after the war.
it took a brutal and needlessly long war for one generation of americans to learn that china is no paper tiger. surely we dont need to have a war every generation for the message to be passed done. 🙁
2) ‘if china invades taiwan, then it will face international condemnation and issolation and the chinese economy with be finished’.
international condemation is a sure thing, how much of it isnt. to assume that the world will jump to taiwan’s aid and bash china even if taiwan was the one to push the two sides to war is wishful thinking.
remeber that the current tensions is a result of taiwan’s leaders forcefully pushing for formal independence, not as a result of china pushing to reunification.
this means that if a conflict does break out, it would be a result of an unilatral move on taiwan’s side to change the statuo quo. which will not have US backing (for the obvious reason that he US doesnt want to fight a war with china). this would effectively mean that taiwan’s leaders are trying to force america to fight its war for them.
i dont know many americans very well, but of the ones i do know, they dont seem to particulaly enjoying having their hands forced and especially dispise being manipulated into doing something they dont want or agree to.
hell, the what bush and blair have beeng doing, there might not even be much of a moral case against china even if china invades without taiwan declearing independence.
as for economic blockades. well anyone who has some basic ecomice knowledge will see how impractical that option is. china is just as, if not more intergrated and an important economy as any of the G7. cutting china out of the world market will hurt all western nations and the US extremely badly and will no doubt send the world economy into a recession (how bad a recession and for how long it will last is debatable, surfice to say it wil be really bad).
that is the main argument against the possibility of a blockade, that most nations will just want the war over ASAP so they can get back to business as usual.
believe in that if you like, and discount it if you wish. but the fact of the matter is that the chinese leadership really arent that bothered. cos economic isolation has been tried on china before, and it doesnt work a well against china as most other countries.
some economists criticize china for being inefficent in that the state countinues to substidies unprofitable fields even though there are much cheaper alternatives from abroad, but the fact of the matter is that one of the main reasons that the chinese government does that is to perserve a high degree of self sufficency.
cut china completely off from the internation market and china will suffer badly, sure. but its economy will not collaps. it will go into a recession but will eventaully (and probably fairly quickly) recover and start to grow again (albert much much slower then it is doing today).
and whats more, most of china’s populus will most likely support the government even if the worst case scenario does happen.
china has a great deal to loose from a war with taiwan, thats why it is not actively seeking one. but there is not as much on the line as some pro-taiwan independence analysis would like us to believe.
if taiwan declears formal independence, then there will be a war. its as sure a thing as there can be in the world of international politics. and i really really do not want to be proved right on this matter.
plawolfPlawolf- I really dont like coming off as a defender of US foriegn policy in past or present. Although there is some benefit to a US style world market place, Id say for the most part that the poor of this world are not benefiting and will stay poor. I aplaud Argentina for their socialist solutions to their economic problems, and their ability to stand up and say no to the world bank vultures. I personally have been screwed by the US and I encourage anyone who can offer an alternative to the F-18 hamburger type of over respect the US recieves. But to call a bafoon like Castro a cunning fox, well he is sort of a folk hero now, kind of like rich white kids who like wearing Che tee shirts. He has done nothing for his impoverished country, and I feel sorry for anyone who idolizes this feeble big mouth. And as for Castro using the “loaded gun” tactic, well he certainly would have, tyrants thoughout history have been willing to bring down the house as long as they could take their enemys with them. You had to have been there in that time, communist rhetoric is just a faint echo of what it once was.
As for the Taiwan issure, your attitude toward Taiwan comes off as alot of Maoist nationalism, and that just isnt going to fly in todays international politics. Like you say, noone wants war, things are moving along fine as they are. So threats only recieve yawns.
only someone who has seen too many western propaganda films with belittle your ‘enemies’ so much.
one does not start a successful revolution without basic brainpower. castro is no fool.
and by ‘cunning fox’ i was not trying to praise his policies or ideas, i was merely giving credit where it is due. castro was and is a cunning politition who is good at manipulating anyone and everyone around him for his own benefit. that is why i call him ‘cunning’. however he is also untruestworthy and a brutal dictator, that is why i also used ‘fox’.
it might feel good to see only your own leaders as intelegent and everyone else as silly bafoons. but thats not the way the world works, even bush jr has his tallents that makes him stand out from a crowd.
while usually unpredicatable, all brutal dictators have one thing is common that makes them very pradicatble at times. that is they will place their own survial and benefit above all else. that is why no matter how bad the rhetoric got, no-one (in power) was really that bothered as long as there were no actions to back them up.
as for taiwan. well if you are going to make a point, at least support it with sound logic and reasoning. merely ‘classing’ views you dont agree with as ‘maosit nationalism’ or sth like that proves nothing but that you are too stubbern to be able to accept a different view.
its ludicuse to think that anyone can come up with a balanced conclusion when he can only listen to the point of view which supports what he always beleived.
plawolfJust name one, plawolf.
Surely it can’t be that hard? 😀
tsst…, cant you see i’ve been busy with other posts. :rolleyes:
i have already given you a list, and that was just from two minutes of a google search.
you can discount them if you like. but the fact of the matter is that these are independent political groups. sure they have ‘links’ with the CCP because everything in china has something to do with the CCP. its just a matter of life in china. the reason that the CCP allow such parties to exist is because, as i already said before, they cant get real power so are no threat.
“Right – they’re not controlled, merely regulated. Care to explain the difference between the CCP and the Chinese government?”
er…where to start. :rolleyes: the CCP is just a name, it means nothing in real life in china. few would even know all the part rules never mind be bound by them. its really just a relic left from the mao times, more ceromony then anything else.
to be a member of the chinese government, you need to be a member of the CCP, but pretty much anyone who has a clean criminal sheet can apply and be accepted. its importance is way over hyped and nowhere like what a western political party is like.
“So, you admit that the PRC is an undemocratic one-party state, then?”
yes, but that ‘one party’ is just like a badge that everyone wears around, the members seldomly have any real affections for the party and the rules of the party are no different then the normal code of conduct of any member of a government. to most, the CCP is just a irritating formality, an extra from to fill in, just another meaningless peice of paper at the end of the day.
as for democracy. well the CCP flerted with the concept since the 1930s, but got scared in 89. however they are gradually starting to re-examine it. there is already grassroot elections going on, and there are hopeful signs of it moving up. but i personally doubt that china will fully adopt a western stype system of government.
again, all this ‘suspision’ is based largely on a misunderstanding of what all the big names truely represent.
plawolfI don´t need to have visited China to see that, if the Taiwanese people would consider living und the rule of the PRC would be better for them, then they would vote for a reunification. They are not doing this, so they obviously prefer to be politcaly independent.
And as you said, life in Taiwan is better then life in the PRC.
– politcal freedom
– religious freedom
– better human right recordsI think that is enough to prefer Taiwan over the PRC.
also missing the point. i was rebuffing the taiwanese propaganda about how bad it would be under chinese rule to show that its nowhere near as bad some taiwanese independence advocates would claim.
of course taiwan has a more free society, no-one was disputing that. however taiwan would keep most of the freedoms if already has under reunification. but even that is missing the point. as i said before, the current tensions did not arise as a result of china saying ‘reunify with the mainland or else’, it is arising from a minority within taiwan trying to push for formal independence.
plawolfMixtec,
Don’t worry about finding direct quotes because you know you’ve read the things he has said. I’ve read them, and so have many others.And apparently, according to plawolf, the PRC is now the dominant superpower in the world, and they can invade Taiwan if they so choose and not even the United States can do anything to stop them…..
plawolf you are very good are sugar-coating the unification of Taiwan and China, as if Taiwan has everything to gain by uniting with China yet there’s one thing I still wonder about………WHY HAVEN’T they done so already?
Face it. Taiwan is a de facto independant nation. The only place they aren’t is “on paper.”
If China were to ever invade Taiwan I can guarantee you it wouldn’t go unnoticed, and China would be making a big mistake. I know it, and you know it, so stop acting like that’s not the case.
Since Taiwan is apparently “missing out” by not uniting with China, then why don’t they? Why does China feel the need to use force to make Taiwan become a part of the PRC is Taiwan has everything to gain by becoming part of China.
China may not be your typical communist country anymore, but they are still communist, and there are still many freedoms that their people that do not have.
ha, all i can do is LOL at that first two paras. go and find real examples of where i said any of these things, cos i think my memory is not as bad as to not remeber what i have said before. :rolleyes:
the second part of you post is vagely better.
i never said taiwan had anything to gain from reuniting with china (not in the political and human rights areas at least), i merely pointed out that reunification with the mainland will be nowhere near as ‘bad’ as some politisions would like to make it seem. and the reason taiwan hasnt reunited with china?
well there are many. the foremost are:
– china has been poor until very recently and before LDH and CSB came to power, the main reason most taiwanese dont want reunification was because it was seen that taiwan would have to foot the bill for the mainland’s economic development, much like who East germany had to help West Germany
however, after LDH and CSB got in power and started to promote taiwanese independence, things got a lot more complicated.
– propaganda from taiwan about how ‘bad’ life will become under chinese rule.
– jamming of mainland TV and radio stations (many of the taiwanese friends i have dont even know what exactly china’s terms are for reunification)
– teachings of ‘taiwanese nationalism in schools’ and in the mainstream media
but in the main, those who are firmly in favour of independence are in the minority, as are those in favour of reunification. the vast majority of taiwanese are indifferent to the prospect and preffers the status quo.
remeber, it is not beijing forcefully pushing for reunification that is causing the current tensions, but taiwan’s leaders’ push for independence.
i have no problem accepting that taiwan is a de facto independent nation nor have i ever disputed it. even china accepts that, albert unofficially, as can be seen from the recent press releases stating that china was willing to allow taiwan ti have its own international living space. what i dispute is the belief that some here have that china will just stand by and let taiwan become a fully independent state.
currently, while taiwan is a de facto independent state, its government only have power to affect internal policies. once taiwan gains formal independence, it will be able to affect international policy, and that is what china cannot and will not accept.
after reading your last post, i think you are getting the wrong idea. this is not about whether china is going to ‘sneakily’ invading taiwan and hope no-one notices. its about what china’s responce will be should taiwan declare formal independence.
plawolfI have no time for propaganda – these are all affiliates of the ruling party.
Name me one – just one – independant political party that is allowed to operate within the PRC. Not Hong Kong – the PRC proper.
Just one.
all of these parties are independent, they dont take orders from the CCP. they are merely regulated by the chinese government (the same as all political parties all around the world are regulated by their different governments).
dont get the issues mixed up. these parties are all fully independent. it just that since there are no general elections in china, these parties will not get any sort of real power in the forseeable future, so their existance is irrelevent.
if you are going to criticies the chinese political system, at least know what you should be criticising. :rolleyes:
i have no problem with people finding and pointing out real faults within the chinese government or any aspect of china. what i cant stand is people criticies china because they ‘think’ that so and so is the case, when it isnt in reality.
plawolfPlawolf- The USSR did not control Cuba. Castro was then and is now a hothead looking for any excuse possible to live up to his “imperialist smashing” ideals he trys to personify. It would have been possible for Castro to take the nukes by force, and noone in the US would put it past him. The USSR told the US in the UN that “we will bury you”, I dont think youre fully aware of the seriousness of the situation. China has nukes now, why dont you try stationing your nukes in underdeveloped allied nations and see what kind of reaction you get from the world.
Im not going to press the issue about Taiwans independence declarations because I think cool heads will prevail over this. But Taiwan is an independant nation and wont unify until treated as an equal.
Im having alot of trouble digging up old threads about Taiwan vs China with the new search utility despite its new advanced features, and even despite simply entering “china” or “taiwan” in the search box. But I know youve said the things Ive mentioned in the past.
the US didnt control turkey either, and they still based their nuclear missiles there, so what?
i find your assumptions about Castro amussing in that you would think that a cunning old fox like him would sign his own death warrent by seizing soviet nuclear weapons and firing them at the US for his ‘reputation. tell me, what good is your reputation when no-one is left to speak of it? :rolleyes:
even if he didnt actually use the nukes it would still have been suicide. the US was just itching at a chance to take over cuba, and the only thing stopping the marines landing was the prospect of a nuclear showdown with the USSR. Castro is not going to poke his only ally in the eye. hell, as soon as he seizes the nukes by force, then washington would glass all of cuba and the USSR will probably be secretly thanking the americans for it. Castro is nowhere near that stupid, and everyone knew it. it was just geopolitics.
as for the ‘we well bury you’ statement. well that was just good’od cold war retorich, and even that was probably taken out of context. the USSR rep probably said something alone the lines of, ‘dont think you (the west) have an edge over the USSR, cos you dont, provoke us and we will bury you’.
as for you ‘pressing’ the taiwan issue, well what exactly are you basing your assumptions on?
i have set out my reasons for why i think china will not allow taiwan to declear formal independence in great detail, and so far the only argument you lot are giving against that is, ‘well china wont, cos china doesnt have the balls/ the US will go in and fight for taiwan no matter the cost.’ and no reasoning to back it up. :rolleyes:
plawolfGreat!!
Humour an ignorant laowai and name one, then.
take your pick. :rolleyes:
plawolf-Youve made countless remarks about how Taiwan is a “defeated people”, how they “have to be brought under control” ,about how they “have to pay for their crimes of the past”. That my not sound very crude to you, and I know your only trying to look out for “whats best for China”, but it comes off as very paranoid and backward to me and others here.
-The US wasnt worried about the USSR, it was worried about Castro. If the USSR had tried to give Khadafi nukes in Libya, the exact same thing would have happened.
-Taiwan is an independant nation, they have said so. Only the world wont accept it. And you say China will go to war, if the Taiwaneese president just utters the words “we are an indepenant nation”? I doubt it.
sorry, needed to restart and couldnt be bothered to rewrite everything. continued:
“The US wasnt worried about the USSR, it was worried about Castro. If the USSR had tried to give Khadafi nukes in Libya, the exact same thing would have happened.”
give me a break, castro didnt have control of those missiles, and everyone knew it. moscow wasnt stupid enough to place nuclear weapons in the hands of others. thats why there were so many soviet troops there. cuba was just a launchpad, just the same with turkey. the missiles were under the direct command of the US and USSR.
all documentries on the matter clearly states that the US were not willing to accept SOVIET missiles in cuba.
“”Taiwan is an independant nation, they have said so. Only the world wont accept it. And you say China will go to war, if the Taiwaneese president just utters the words “we are an indepenant nation”? I doubt it.”
er no. again, people making assumptions based on hearsay and not the thruth. :rolleyes:
the most any taiwanese leader has ever said on the matter officially is that ‘there are two countries on each side of the strait’. and evn that was later ‘clarified’ as not saying that taiwan was an independent state shortly afterwards. :rolleyes: any ‘decleration’ of formal independence by a taiwanese leader would be clearly going past beijing’s bottom line, and that leader will either have to back off, and ‘clarify’ that what he said didnt mean what it sounded like, or he has to brace himself for war.
make no mistake, there are many areas where china can be flexable about, this isnt one of them. any substantive crossing of beijing’s bottom line would only have one end result, regardless of the cost.
plawolf-Youve made countless remarks about how Taiwan is a “defeated people”, how they “have to be brought under control” ,about how they “have to pay for their crimes of the past”. That my not sound very crude to you, and I know your only trying to look out for “whats best for China”, but it comes off as very paranoid and backward to me and others here.
-The US wasnt worried about the USSR, it was worried about Castro. If the USSR had tried to give Khadafi nukes in Libya, the exact same thing would have happened.
-Taiwan is an independant nation, they have said so. Only the world wont accept it. And you say China will go to war, if the Taiwaneese president just utters the words “we are an indepenant nation”? I doubt it.
“Youve made countless remarks about how Taiwan is a “defeated people”, how they “have to be brought under control” ,about how they “have to pay for their crimes of the past”. “
lol! give me one real quote where i actually said anything like that. the only negative remarks about taiwan were directed at their past and present leaders, not the people of taiwan. :rolleyes:
plawolfWell compared to the West. life in Eastern Germany was medicore. Human rights and personal freedom were much more reduced.
And that is the the same with Taiwan and China. China is no longer really communist, yet the personal freedom and the human rights are worth then in Taiwan. So why should Taiwan want to reunite with Chian, when the people there would actually give up some of their freedom ??
Same with Sk and Western Germany. People won´t support reunification if that means having less freedom.
In the end I see the solution that worked so well for HongKong. Taiwan becomes part of the PRC, but remains the status of a “self controlled” province. That would mean practicall no chances to the average person in Taiwan.
and how many years have you spent in china? :rolleyes:
i have spent half my life in china, and i have enjoyed just as much personal freedom in china as i did in here. the only areas where ‘freedoms’ are somewhat restricted in china is if you want to get into politics or if you want to go off and start your own ‘religious’ group. :rolleyes:
as for human rights. well there china needs alot of improvement, but that is mainly limited to reform within the police force to introduce tougher guidelines so that they dont mistreat prisoners.
both of these points are pointless in the taiwan discussion.
under peaceful reunification, taiwan’s police force will still police the streets of taiwan, so no risk of heavy-handed chinese police enfringing human rights; as for political freedom, china is allowing taiwan to pretty keep the political system thy have already, with limitations on what the elected leaders can do (ie, cant go off and sign treaties on behalf of china or buy weapons from abroad). hell, china doesnt even want to base any PLA troops on the island if it is reunited peacefully.
the loss of personal freedom and human rights after reunification will be neglagible to the vast majority of taiwan’s populus. and its not like that after reunification china will be able to push through anything it wants. just look at hong kong. china really wanted the anti-subverson bill to go through, but was willing to shelve it after widespread protests.
plawolfI, for one, am very glad to hear this.
Perhaps shih plawolf will now oblige us all by naming just a few of the opposition political parties that are allowed to exist in the PRC?
ah, so now we have resorted to misquoting people have we? (by taking things said out of context) :rolleyes:
that sentence was used to describe the political system which china is offering taiwan as a mains of governence should the two reunite under beijing’s terms (peacefully, all bets are off if beijing is forced to take the islands by force).
regardless, there are many different politcial parties even with the PRC itself. however the form of government of the PRC means they arent much of an ‘opposition’.
besides, this political party thing is hyped up way too much anyways, in the UK and US where there are different parties, but the differences arent that significant (not in the UK at least anyways). all the different parties are promising pretty much the same thing and offering the same policies with very little differences between them.
plawolfno prob. 😉
well the problem is that neither jet ever entered service, so one can only ‘guess’ at their armarment based on what the fighters of that time had.
plawolfvry funny. could be used as the script for a text messaging ad. 😀 😉
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