The first is correct,the later not. I guess most people in Germany were not eager to reunite under the rule of communist Eastern Germany. So in a way Germany was also divided in the politcal system.

Reunification did happen only after the communist regime in the east fell and the eastern part did become a democracy like the west. Then both states were similiar enough to reunite.

Honestly speaking, I believe if the PRC would become a free and democratic state, then a reunification with Taiwan would be surely to follow.

people in east germany werent too happy about living under communits rule mainly because of all the propaganda films they saw. (not saying communist rule was good, just not as bad as the west made it out to be).

anyways, that example is inappropriate here because beijing is not asking taiwan completely convert to chinese rule, and nor is chinese rule communist rule in any sense of the term and of the steriotypes associated with it. :rolleyes:

plawolf,
I have trouble taking a lot of what you say seriously because you’ve gained quite a reputation on your past of crude remarks against Taiwan. You speak as you know the views and wishes of everyone in Taiwan.

The simple fact is that China would be incredibly stupid to go to war over Taiwan declaring independence.

But I’m curious as to what your variation of events would be….however warped your theoretical scneario will likely be…..

So tell me plawolf, what’s going to happen if/when Taiwan declares independence.

Geforce,
Troop numbers is not the only thing that wins a war, and the United States is not going to invade the mainland in any case so a lot of that is a moot point. The military goal would be to keep the PRC out of Taiwan, and I think that would be a very attainable goal, especially considering the massive technological and training advantage of the ROCAF, the U.S. and the other likely candidates for involvement such as the U.K. (not as likely but possible), Australia (same as U.K.), South Korea, and Japan.

I’m glad you had some laughs, but they were rather pointless because what I said isn’t as inaccurate as you think.

On a side note I’m glad to see you still feel you’re on a level of intellectual superiority that I could never reach. 🙂

so, can you give some examples of my ‘crude remarks against Taiwan’? :rolleyes:

i also have difficulty taking alot what you say in because of the aboslute lack of any cost/benefit analysis or in some places, even common sense.

dont disregard the message just cos you dont like what you are hearing. :rolleyes:

apply a cool objective eye to the situation and you well see how flawed your analysis is. for example, when the USSR put a few SRBMs in cuba, they werent trying to do a first strike to wipe out the US and the US knew it (or at the every least the US president and his command staff knew it), they just wanted parity to counter the US SRBMs in turkey, yet the US was willing to put everything on the line to stop it. does that make sense based on you ‘logic’? :rolleyes:

as for you assumptions that the the likes of Japan and SK will get involved. well give me one good reason why they would want to go and fight their biggest and most powerful neighbour for the US? one of the main reasons that SK and japan sides with the US is for security, going to war doesnt sound very ‘safe’.

you are also ignoring the obvious racial tensions between SK and japan, their governments might like to paint a picture of solidarity, but the poeple of SK would much rather fight japan then china.

apply cost/benefit analysis and you see that both SK and japan has alot to loose and nothing to gain from fighting china. hell, they have alot to loose just from china fighting taiwan. :rolleyes: the same goes for the US.

you say that china would be ‘extremely stupid’ to go to war with taiwan. well if that was true, then SK, japan and american would be far far more stupid to go to war with china over taiwan.

if taiwan declears independence, china will invade. pure and simple. if the US gets involved, china will fight the US, and there are no assurances that china will only fight with only conventional means.

lol, empty name calling is the sign of a person who has nothing to back up his claims. :rolleyes:

Héhé, I had some laughs. Phantom, you can’t be serious. Well, I’m no military analyst, but I do know that China is a regional superpower. It would be a big mistake to trigger a war for China, but it would be an ever bigger mistake for the US to interfere in it. A conventional war between the US and China seems rather impossible, and in a nuclear war, there are only losers. But even if the US would send conventional forces, how much troops can they send, maybe at max 500 000 soldiers? China can outnumber them like what, about 20 times, or more? China has no sophisticated carriers, AWACS like the US? No need, if China wants to invade, even if they let the soldiers swim from the mainland to Taiwan, enough will survive to outnumber the ROC and the US forces. Europeans at this point, well, maybe we can rent some Ukrainian Antonovs to send some backup but that’s it.

You forget one thing Phantom, and that is, quantity always wins if you are going till the end!!! Look at the Soviets during WWII. Times have changed. Probably, but the Chinese aren’t a bunch of cavedwellers either. Special Forces and Marines are well-trained, but so is the Chinese infantry (remembers seeing a documentary on Discovery). And since there are only 50 000 Marines, against, how many Red caps? And the ROC on its own. I would like to compare it to the Finno-Russian war of the late thirties: The Fins were heroic, well trained guerillia-warriors and earned a place in the history books. The Russians were regarded as incompetent and slow, but still, who won? “It’s not the bravest man that wins the war, it’s the strongest” I can still remember someone saying this on this particular forum.

But currently, Beijing is not interrested in a war, because that would cost too much: money, lives, allies. Both China and the US are aware that a war would be a catastrophy. However, China will probably win this war, for the reason that they are fighting in their homeland and don’t have to cross the Pacific.

BTW, exactly 4000 posts. 😎 Not bad is it, 4000 posts of intelligent, coherent phrases 😀 Don’t I diserve a Nobel-or Pullitzer-price.

the russian example is a rather poor one, no disrespect. the PLA might be large, but its troops are far from ‘incompetent and slow’.

with the PLA v ROCA (army only), the reverse is probably true. while taiwan has a small army, the vast majority of its troops are conscripts who care little about the army and are only concerned with what to do after they finished their term. on the other hand, the PLA’s frontline troops are entirely volenters, and are much more commited to training.

the only thing the PLA lacks is equipment. i would go as far as say that man for man, the average PLA soilder is as good as any, and better then most.

attached: ordinary PLA soilders v ordinary ROCA soilders.

in war, and only war.

I would assume that Beijing would understand that attacking Taiwan would be a gave mistake. Taiwan would be more than able to defend itself until reinforcements arrive in the form of the U.S. military and possibly other armed forces in the region.

You can’t seriously think the PRC would be that crazy?? Not only would they get annihilated, but Taiwan and its allies would take serious losses as well and no one is going to stand for something that catastrophic happening.

China has everything to lose (such as their current ecnonomic power plus massive losses militarily) and nothing to gain by attacking Taiwan so I seriously doubt they’d do it.

What does the PRC have to gain by having Taiwan become part of the “mainland” anyway?

It’s not like if Taiwan is declared an independent state that people can’t go back and forth to visit relatives and whatnot so why would someone with family on both sides object to independence?

first of all, get the facts right. the main goal of china is to stop taiwan from becoming an formally independent nation, and not necessarily to unite the island with the mainland at any cost.

dont be foolish and nieve and think that china will not fight. only a shortsighted person would see taiwan’s formal independence as ‘no big deal’ for china.

if taiwan gains independence, the first thing would happen is that the USAF, USN, US army will move in, and then china is completely at the mercy of the US as all of china’s coastal regions – the culmunation of three decades of economic development, are within easy striking range of US assets that can destroy everything china has worked for and everything that china will work for. what good is future economic development if someone can just comes in and destory everything you will build at their lessure?

currently, while on paper the PLA has no chance against the US, but in reality, US deployment options against china are serverly limited.

should the US want to strike at the chinese mainland with conventional weapons, then the only real means they have would be to use carriers.

SK would be extremely unlikely to allow the US to strike china from bases in their country, and the same would go for japan. but the likihood of the US convincing japan to allow its bases to be used would be higher. still, for USAF assest to strike china from japan or guam would serverly limit their payload and also cause other constraints such as pilot fatige, slower response time (as USAF fighters will need to fly further to get to the fight), and limited strike range and the need for extensive IFR, and gives china advtanges such as longer alert time to incoming attacks and a ‘safe haven’ that is outside of the range of USAF assets. and thats not considering the prospect of chinese attacks that might damage of destroy the very few bases the USAF have in the region.

in all intent and purposed, without taiwan as a base, the USAF will not be able to really get into a fight with china, and the USN will have to do it pretty much by itself. and when you look at it from that prospective, the PLA will have a much greater chance of at least a draw, and has a fair chance of victory by knocking out enough carriers to criple the USN’s ability to stay in the fight.

as for america’s involvment. well that is far from a sure thing mate. the US has little to gain from fighting for taiwan and alot to loose, and only a fool would think that the US will fight for a people halfway around the world regardless of its national interests. do you think the american ppl will stand to have thousands to tens of thousands of body bags come home just to fight for a territory that not even the US accpet as an independent nation? :rolleyes:

if the US was really that committed to fighting for taiwan, then it would have encouraged taiwan to seeker formal independence long ago. instead, you have successive US presidents demanding that both sides maintain the ‘status quo’. why? because its not in america’s best interest to fight china.

i think there were limited to PL2s (AIM9 copy), which only have a tailchase engagment ability.

probably offset by the lower costs and the possibility of ToT.