eagle1I’m sure they well, but this discussion is about likely factors that will be relevant in 2017, which doesn’t entail anything from last decade.
Well…The Typhoon is already out so I don’t understand the point of the discussion ????
Switerland to relaunch F-5 replacement effort in 2017
Switzerland is to relaunch its efforts to procure a new fighter type following the recent announcement by the Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport (DDPS) that it is prematurely retiring a third of the ageing Northrop F-5E Tiger II fleet due to cracking. […]
To address the chronic deficit that is now manifesting itself in Switzerland’s air policing capabilities, Maurer said that the DDPS would begin an evaluation process for a new fighter in 2017. According to the government, the new process should include two of the three shortlisted candidates from the previous effort; namely, the Gripen E and the Dassault Rafale (the Eurofighter Typhoon is no longer considered a ‘favourite’, the RTS report said). It added that ‘a US aircraft’, most likely the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, should also be included. […].
http://www.janes.com/article/50817/switzerland-to-relaunch-f-5-replacement-effort-in-2017
Gripen, Rafale, US Aircraft Contenders For Swiss Fighter, Eurofighter Opts Out
***************************
Secondly, in 2008 the rafale was already supposed to have weaker radar (PESA vs Captor M) & engines but still outperformed the Typhoon. Irony is that RBE2 PESA quality was praised on the technical evaluation…I don’t see the situation changing.
And this is what emerged later on the typhoon about the swiss technical evaluation :
As the clear winner of the flight evaluation, the Rafale won the battle, but lost the war in Switzerland. The Eurofighter did not emerge with much credit. Gygax told AIN that he did not expect the four-nation jet to score worse than the Rafale in air-to-air roles. Moreover, he added, the unpublished reports on maintenance and training did not rate the Eurofighter any better than the Rafale. “The spares are possibly cheaper because of the large number of aircraft, but it’s a very manpower-intensive aircraft,” he said
Probably those are the reasons the Typhoon was ejected from the new competition by Mindef Mauer. To costly for the actual performance in real life scenarios.
eagle1Future Rafale deals will also be under govt to govt: Def Min
[…]Parrikar termed it as “strange”, the decision of the previous government to designate only HAL as the partner under the tender. He said the main problem was the man power ration proposed by HAL which was 2.7, which was “very high” in terms of cost.[…]
eagle1Olybrius on mp.net has plenty of articles on the situation in India. Worth a read.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?137433-Rafale-News/page478
It’s unclear if the make in India is dead or not. Depending on the article, informations are different.
eagle1So does India get all the active cancellation magic or is there an “export version” a la F35?
There were some articles relating this issue of ToT (on spectra on a more general way). However there is no certainty on this topic (nothing official on it).
My very personnal opinion/guess on that matter is that the hardware will be common but for “some” of the most sophisticated jamming pattern it will perhaps not be included on Indian Rafales. So perhaps 90% of the capability will be transferred and the remaining 10% will stay in France. However it should still be an awsome piece of kit for IAF.
And anyway, Indians should be able to complete their own librairy of threats and develop their own jamming techniques…
eagle1That certainly doesn’t sound like active cancellation…
There are plenty of ways that a jammer can work to prevent a radar from recognizing a target. The part about “there are other strategies, such as generating signals that will encompass or be higher than the echo from the aircraft ” is telling. If this were active cancellation the goal is to cancel out the signal reflecting from the aircraft being protected. The last thing you would want to do is generate a signal more powerful than the original.
I suspect what they are doing here is seeking ways to generate noise in such a manner as to leave the Rafale’s already fairly small return undetectable in some cases.
Read the article again…Incidentally this also how the author understood the point (like Bill Sweetman formely)…Anyway active cancellation or not the aim is to disappear from radar screen. The rest is semantic.
Instead of creating a false echo and drawing the radar to the wrong place, the idea is to produce a signal that will mask the echo of the aircraft, so the radar will be unable to detect the aircraft Spectra is protecting.”[…]
Mrmalaya,
F3R is funded with 1 Billion Euros for the development. It should be ready around 2018. This is also the standard for India + a few specific developments like an HMS or new missiles integration if the contract is signed.
eagle1Have you seen the report on the F3R uprgrade…I found it quite interesting as we have new pieces of info regarding this new rafale “tranche”:
We have Spectra with GaN & other improvements, higher processing power….And, and…Quite a scoop (or not) regarding everlasting debates which took place a few years ago : the rafale has indeed an operational active cancellation capability.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?137433-Rafale-News/page379 (post 5676)
[ATTACH=CONFIG]229895[/ATTACH]
Excerpts related to Rafale on Aviation week website:
France has also announced big investments for Rafale. Dassault has already inducted the first of the French Navy Rafale F1-standard aircraft to begin an upgrade to the latest service configuration, F3-04T, which includes the active, electronically scanned array (AESA) version of the RBE2 radar and the DDM-NG missile-warning system. The program goal is to retain all the aircraft in service through rolling upgrades, the company says.
The DDM-NG, part of the Thales/MBDA Spectra defensive avionics suite, comprises two imaging infra-red sensors located on either side of the fighter’s fin-tip pod, each with a hemispherical field of view and jointly providing full spherical coverage other than the area blanked by the fighter’s wing. Its ability to detect and track other targets, such as aircraft, is classified, according to Dassault.
In January, the French defense ministry awarded Dassault a contract for the next major Rafale upgrade, known as F3-R.
It includes more powerful processors and upgrades to the Multi-functional Information Distribution System-Low Volume Terminal datalink and the automatic ground collision avoidance system.
For tactical and strategic reconnaissance missions, F3-R will include in-cockpit replay and analysis of imagery from the Thales Areos long-range oblique photography (Lorop) reconnaissance pod. The Rafale pilot or weapon system operator will be able to review imagery without interrupting the pod’s collection process.
The upgrade will also see a series of improvements to Spectra. Developed by Thales and MBDA, Spectra is a fully automated system that provides electromagnetic detection, laser and missile warning, jamming and four chaff/flare dispensers. French industry sources say that during operations over Libya in 2011, Rafale literally disappeared from the radar screens of the Libyan air force, performing “soft kills” on enemy radar systems [already related in one of the lastest issue of FOX3].
Bruno Carrara, director of the Rafale program at Thales, says the F3-R upgrade will involve a more advanced electromagnetic detection capability based on new digital wide-band-receiver technologies, improving the suite’s spectrum analysis as well as its instantaneous interception capability.
Thales will also update Spectra’s solid-state jamming subsystem, which was one of the first to use electronically steered phased-array antennas. Carrara says for F3R, Spectra will include more powerful antennas, while further increasing the power supply so that more threats can be jammed simultaneously. Like Saab, Thales will use GaN technology because of its power and efficiency.
Since the late 1990s, Spectra’s designers have dropped hints that the system can perform “active cancellation”—receiving a radar signal and mimicking the aircraft’s echo exactly one-half wavelength out of phase so the radar sees nothing.
Carrara again implies that such a capability is in use: “There are other strategies, such as generating signals that will encompass or be higher than the echo from the aircraft, so that the radar threat will receive a signal that will mask the echo from the aircraft,” Carrara says. “Instead of creating a false echo and drawing the radar to the wrong place, the idea is to produce a signal that will mask the echo of the aircraft, so the radar will be unable to detect the aircraft Spectra is protecting.”[…]
Other upgrades also reported from combat aircraft monthly for the current batch 4 is an improved cockpit :
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eagle1Here you go again.
THE DEVALUATION OF THE RUPEE HAS NO EFFECT ON THE DOLLAR PRICE. It affects the rupee price – only.
…
It has a direct effect on the price of the MRCA deal for India since to pay in $, india has to BUY $ with its own currency.
Inflating dollar prices are certainly done with a fix exchange rate to reflect the aditional cost in Rupee but converted in $ (price with current exchange rate vs price with future exchange rate) > from 12 billion $ to 17 billion $ and perhaps more.
What we learn is that the cost escalation is massively due to a currency issue and to a lesser extent specific demands from the IAF not initally anticipated — Or items that were not part of rafale/Typhoon price formula originaly.
Then add a very complex deal to determine responsibilities and liabilities and you get very difficult negotiations.
However it does not say the rafale is expensive intrincly as costs haven’t change dramatically (stable production in France with no inflation for the AdA). This issue would be the same for competing aircrafts. And for this very reason, the rafale choice is not seriously called into question directly for the time being. If Dassault fooled India the negotiation would have halt immediately which is not the case.
I say this beacuse the cost issue for India which is due to a weak rupee is often used to label the rafale as an expensive aircraft…Well it is like most fighter jets, but there is no surprise on the rafale side about cost escalation issue etc…Its cost is known and stable for a while now.
fourth committee, related to contract negotiation will determine the fighter contract’s eventual price, which is estimated to have doubled to more than USD20 billion. [SIZE=4]This was due largely to inflation, an appreciable decline in the value of the Indian rupee against the US dollar, and the addition of around 50 items that were not priced in Dassault’s original bid.[/SIZE]
http://www.janes.com/article/38752/rafales-exercise-in-india-as-optimism-on-mmrca-deal-grows
Indian MMRCA Bill Balloons To $17 Billion
The value Indian MMRCA deal is set to inflate to a whopping $17 billion from the original $12 billion by the end of this year thanks to the falling Indian rupee.
The rupee currently stands at INR 59. 80 against the dollar and economists predict this number could rise up to INR 65 by the end of this year. At the time of the announcement in January 2012, the rupee was being traded at INR 42 against the dollar and the deal was then valued at approximately $12 billion for 126 fighter jets.With the current value of the rupee, the deal could potentially be worth $15 billion. However, if negotiations are postponed until later this year India may very well end up with a $17 billion bill from Dassault. […]
http://www.defenseworld.net/news/8699/Indian_MMRCA_Bill_Balloons_To__17_Billion
eagle1Its payload is not limited in the least. Nowhere does it say that it should employ only an internal payload. If the F-22 upgrades had gone as planned, it would have been as effective as the F-15E.
That’s wrong. With only two wet points under the wings, the F22 has no room for other heavy external payload and is limited to its small internal bays. Same rationale is valid with the FGFA vs MRCA. Or could you figure out where to fit 12 or 6 LGB as well as enough fuel and a LDP ? This makes the F22 and FGFA some excellent niche aircraft for Air dominance but with very limited strike capabilities (short range, small payload).
Even if it has 4.5 gen electronics, that’s good enough. The comparison with the F-35 is valid but can be discussed elsewhere. Both aircraft are preferable for the IAF’s roles.
4.5 gen electronic will not compensate for an arcraft with niche capabilities. Second, the FGFA has still a very very long way to go before just hoping to catch up.
if its not as ‘sophisticated’, its got a wider range of sensor and more brute power to compensate, aside from its significantly lower RCS.
valid point, but the brute power is at the detriment of fuel fraction and external payload & operational flexibility. You cannot win everywhere.
eagle1The FGFA is not an MRCA replacement. It is a big aircraft, it is fast, feature some stealth feature but has one drawback : it is a highly specialized Air Dominance aircraft with limited multirole capabilities due to its limited payload and (external) fuel. An F22 cannot replace effectively an F15E for instance.
Then it remains to be demonstrated if the FGFA would have true 5th gen electronics like the F35 or even some 4.5 gen aircrafts. It is not enough to look like a 5th gen jet from outside to pretend being a 5th gen jet. I have my doubt to see the FGFA anywhere close to the F35 in terms of avionics before a very very very long time. And I have my doubt seing the FGFA reaching avionics sophistication of a gripen NG, rafale or SH international before a very very long time. Not a very credible alternative without evidences.
eagle1$12 billion to $20 billion is very much a dollar figure. In rupee terms the escalation would probably be about 250%.
That’s a flawed logic: to pay in $ India has to BUY $ with cheap rupees…
When your curency is going down your imports will be significantly more expensive which is the case in India.
As for the 18 flyaway rafales and everything that will be sourced in France the costs are in € but converted in $ bought with cheap Rupee : double kiss cool effect.
India Central Bank should set higher interest rates and suddenly those deals will be less costly.
eagle1This is probably the mirage F1 most famous video in its original version:
eagle1Of course the mirage F1 in Chad is widely known over the internet :
plenty of other great videos on that topic
eagle1Yes the F35 makes my point : it is a bigger and much more expensive jet that the gripen. Not sure it will be cheaper than the Typhoon or rafale though.
I also disagree with Brazil and Switzerland to go for F35 : I fail to see where stealth would be of any use in Switzerland Scenario, probably kinematic would be a more valuable aspect to perform sky policing…Anyway we are speculating here. As for Brazil, ToT and Offsets would be an issue.
The F35 is great, but you have to be politically aligned with US foreign policy and you can say goodbye to any license manufacturing or meaningful offset/industry participation. If you want some independence with the US, the F35 is not for you, however great it is.
For the above reasons, aircrafts like the rafale or the typhoon still have a say. However I agree the remaining opportunities remain uncertain. (The best situation remains India and middle east in n°2).
Please note that I do not call into question Gripen Choice in Switerland and Brazil. It is a great choice and I am sure it will perform well in their context.
eagle1Well you could not get anything more official than head of FAB and Brazilian MoD and they stated during a press conference that on purely technical criteria the rafale had the lead. (See above). Now again performance is not the only factor just like in Switzerland (cost, ToT, offsets) and the Gripen choice is perfectly legitimate in the end.
If now you just take a bird’s eye view you cannot ignore the profile of Gripen customers. There is just a logic.
eagle1There is also plenty of official declaration on the record towards the F18 or the rafale. Once the choice is done in favor of the Gripen, a military will certainly not dare to go against the political will of the moment if he hopes to have a carrer…
Board wants to hear Saito confirm that FAB prefer Rafale
To the Minister Nelson Jobim, the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) prefer to buy French Rafale fighters to refit the force. The statement was made on Wednesday in the House of Representatives.
Minister Nelson Jobim said in open court in the Foreign Relations Committee that the Air Force commander, Brigadier Juniti Saito, showed a preference for the Rafale, despite its higher cost. “He said that the technical aspects, all three proposals meet, but the Air Force Command believes that the Rafale fighter is what most corresponds to National Defense Strategy, despite the costs,” Jobim said, as matter of O Globo.
The statement Jobim contradicts previous information where the French fighter had been considered the worst choice among the three models in contention: the Gripen, the Rafale and F18.
To clarify, the Commission on Science and Technology of the House should invite Brigadier Juniti Saito, commander of the FAB, to explain both the criteria for evaluation of aircraft as the preference of the FAB.
http://www.emtemporeal.com.br/index.asp?area=2&dia=09&mes=04&ano=2010&idnoticia=94460
04/05/2010
Jobim says he will send the report about fighters to Lula next weekRIO DE JANEIRO (*******) – After repeated delays, the Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said on Tuesday it intends to submit next week to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva the technical report on the acquisition of fighter jets to fleet renewal Brazilian Air Force (FAB).
[…]
“I’m finishing this report. It’s tricky. I hope to finish next week the phase of the explanatory memorandum to send to the president,” Jobim told reporters after participating in a exchange of generals in the Eastern Military Command in Rio de Janeiro.Jobim acknowledged that the process of choosing the fighters are late. “I’ve traveled a lot. It’s true,” added the minister, who believes that the procedure of choice for Lula will take place later in the first half-year.
Recently, Jobim said that the FAB opted for the French fighter jets after a technical analysis of the aircraft.Asked about the choice on Tuesday, the minister evaded. “live life one day at a time” he said
Correio Braziliense via Notimp, nov 13
[…]
Sources from the Planalto confirm that before 31 December will be announced the winner of competition opened with the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Prior, Lula intends to consult once again the defense minister, Nelson Jobim, and the elected president Rousseff. Jobim, who met yesterday in Brasilia the Commander of the Air Force Juniti Saito, delivered to the president the technical memorandum of the ministry, pointing the French fighter as the best option.
[…]
The climate [of the meeting] between Lula and Sarkozy was a farewell between good friends. The French president went on to say that his colleague should not leave the international scene, and suggested that Lula will continue acting in the G-20. There are speculations that the Brazilian president may take the head of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome.
[…]
You could also find reports favoring the F18 or the Gripen…But eventually Brazilian choice is not a purely technical one : it values ToT and offset and cheaper costs a lot and here the gripen won hand down. But on a purely performance aspect, you can’t say the gripen won. Like in Switzerland it is a balance of technical factor with cost, industry participation and politics. The Gripen most certainly “met the minimum technical requirements***” but had a big advantag on other criteria. In the end it is a logical choice for swiss and brazilian context who don’t face any imminent threat. Going for a more expensive aircraft would have been politically more risky. (remember Brazilian riots and the hurdle of swiss referendum). + more benefit for local industry.
***“Brigadier Juniti Saito, showed a preference for the Rafale, despite its higher cost. “He said that the technical aspects, all three proposals meet, but the Air Force Command believes that the Rafale fighter is what most corresponds to National Defense Strategy, despite the costs,”“
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