HammerSorry to bust the bubble, but, the Embraer P-99 MPA cannot carry any weapons for ASW or ASuW, its wing is just too close to the ground so there is simply no vertical clearance. May I interest in a MPA derivative of the KC-390? 😉
This is (at this point) just speculation, but who knows, if the P-8 ends costing way too much……
Regards,
Hammer
Hammer1. Brazil should have access to real numbers, not those published in the media.
2. I don’t see why this is a big problem. The UK was backing the Typhoon bid until it was dropped from the shortlist, & then switched to promising all the ToT Brazil wants for Gripen NG. Spain has been competing hard for Brazilian contracts. I think that only Germany might need convincing, & the other partners are already keen.
Hi Swerve,
I’m sure the high cost issue was the reason that had the Eurofighter voluntarily dropping out of rhe F-X1 bid many years ago… The Italians are the ones representing the EF here, no the Brits, as I said before. The EF “TOT complexity” card was revealed to the press by the FAB itself.
Regards,
Felipe
HammerYes, Tmor, this case is a blow to Dassault more than to anyone else (well with the exception of FAB, Saito must be furious), and that includes SAAB and Boeing.
I’d put it like this. If no new entrants are allowed in, it is certainly a major blow to Dassault. On the other hand if others are let in (hypotetically these can be Su-35S, T-50, J-10, FC-1, F-35, F-16/60s, etc…) than all three current bidders stand to lose alike. If not just the considerable money and time spent in this sales campaign.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerHi Swerve,
Everything you say about Chaves is true but three things must be remembered here: 1st, he is a long standing close friend of Lula and of many inside the PT Party in Brazil. 2) Apparently he know that Brazil is one of the few relevant global/regional players that can be called in to defuse any political situation that may arise from Chaves’ own anti US political babble. 3) THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASONABLY INTERESTING TARGET FOR AN AIR ATTACK IN THE WHOLE BRAZILIAN NORTHWESTERN HALF… 🙂
So unless Chaves eventualy buys some 6 or more Tu-160s there is absolute no damage that his Su-30s can cause to out critical national infrastructure on a more permanent level. Thus he is definitively not a military issue for us, maybe for Colombia, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and the Netherland Antilles it is different though.
By the way, due to politically driven Venezuelan import cuts from traditional suppliers Colombia and the USA, now Brazil is their major foreign goods supplier nowadays.. 😉
One minor nitpick to your post the 2nd hand F-5s we just bought came from Jordan. not Saudi Arabia. Overall the M200C purchase is normally seen here as a horrible and very expensive pick as these are to be retired well BEFORE our quite older F-5s. The anti drug smuggling ops can very well be done with our cheap Super Tucanos and even cheaper Mi-35s, no fast jets needed.
Best Regards,
Hammer
Venezuela has a capricious & increasingly authoritarian leader who is busy dismantling the remaining traces of democracy in his country, has supported narco-traficantes in a neighbouring state, & has bought Su-30s. Even if he’s friendly at the moment, he’s obviously not a comfortable neighbour.
Brazils current fighter fleet is old. The Mirage 2000s were bought second hand, & are coming up to 30 years old. The F-5Es are even older, & although they’ve had a major upgrade (the ex-Saudi airframes are now receiving it), they won’t last forever. Brazil is a big country, & wants to have effective government of all its territory & airspace, which means the ability to intercept aircraft which overfly it. Serious countries are able to intercept drug-smuggling flights, for example.
Advancing the military aviation industry (civil is doing very nicely, thank you) is a means, not an end. The end is reduced dependence on foreign arms suppliers, & thus increased national security.
Also, Brazil is feeling its growing weight in the world. What is the threat to the USA that justifies F-35, F-22, etc? What dangerous neighbours does the USA have? Are Canada’s F-18s, Cuba’s handful of operational MiGs & Mexico’s F-5Es such a danger? why not apply the same standards?
Hammeri suppose this is what happens when a procurement is not urgent.
Afterall why is Brazil trying to by the latest jets? (please excuse my ignorance).
Where is the threat that requires Rafale, Gripen NG or the F35? Its only really to advance the aviation industry isn’t it?
It is very true that we face ABSOLUTELY NO THREAT from any of our neighbours, so the Brazilian Air Force has always had a “capacity development” goal every time in the past we decided in upgrading our fighter fleet. We wanted to be able to know how to best use these new tecnologies and derived doctrines and strategies so that if push came to shove (as it enventually did in the 2nd World War for us) we might have the indigenous means to quickly beefup and speed up our pilot training sylabus to produce high numbers of high quality fighter pilots that know how to use the more moderns tools available to them..
That is how we intruduced jet fighters, supersonic fighters with on-board radars and missiles, and now are adding digital avionics, NCW, composite structures and a slew of other cutting edge tecnologies.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerCould the side-lining of Jobim be the true aim in this though?
I.e., delaying FX-2 is just to prove the point and re-inforce the message,
but challenging the decision per se isn`t as relevant as reducing Jobim`s ongoing role in other matters?
…speculations…
Well It seems very clear that Jobim under Dilma has a much smaller liberty of movement than he ever has under Lula.
His original “mandate” (to beefup the DefMinistry organization bringing definitively military power under the reigns of the civilian political control) is still midway in its course. For that reason apparently a PT party politician called José GenoÃno (curiously enough one of the PT ranks closer to the military establishment although being a captures and tortured ex-guerrilla member of the Araguaia Campaign) has just been added to the Ministry of Defense staff as a “consultant”.
Some say that Genoino is being prepped to assume the Ministry from Jobim around March or April. Jobim comes from the vice-predident’s PMDB party but who’s party leaders do not want to have him there because he openly supported Serra against Dilma in the last Presidential Campaign.
It was Dilma herself who reinstated Jobim as MinDef, so by now I belive SHE has all the cards and would now be just assisting Genoino in his rampup to a credible DefMinistership until he gets his coveted Paris Embassador posting in the near future.
Against him Genoino has the fact that he is currently being indicted in a very big political party payoff scandal by PT party that almost cost Lula his administration some few years ago… lets see how this evolves further…
Regards,
Hammer
HammerThey probably will go with the cheapest option, namely the Gripen NG? In a time of landslides and casualties in natural desasters, the new government won’t spend too many billions on fighters, i guess.
Due to the fact that the first outlay of cash on this program is only due 24 months or so after the anouncement of the bid winner I don’t really think that realistically the flood damages can be considered a real reason for not deciding the F-X2 now.
This is not to say that it can’t be used as a “good excuse” to the press for postponing this thing even more if so wishes Dilma….
The original F-X1 cancellation for example had absolutely nothing to due with funds being nedded to fight extreme poverty and much more as a way out from buying from national economic powerhouse Embraer a near-obsolete fighter at very high cost to the taxpayer…
Regards,
Hammer
HammerMartelo, what about the itamaray statement. That is not official? itamaraty.gov.br?
Hi Buitreux,
The “Itamaraty” (Brazilian Foreign Office) is certainly an “official source” but what you just read is just a news clipping of something that was published by the Brazilian Press it IS NOT a Brazilian Government statement, check out the URL to that link…
Saludos,
Hammer
HammerI think it would be an idea to include Typhoon. Typhoon would offer an aircraft of similar capability to Rafale with much greater TOT than Super Hornet would offer. At worst Brazil could use Typhoon to pressurise Dassault to offer the best deal it can.
Hi Spitfire9,
Typhoon is seen here in Brazil as economically untenable, operating costs relayed by the international media show that even if we could buy it we’d certainly have a hard time paying for it… If someone was to offer them to us at cut prices it would certainly be Italy (Trance 3s) , not the UK (Tranche 1s).
Italy is today responsible for Eurofighter marketing to Brazil mostly due to the previous AMX connection built between the two nations.
TOT of Eurofighter to Brazil is also seen as an unsolvable issue due to the imense effort of convincing the four partners into allowing this sensitive transfer to our industry.
Regards
Hammer
HammerHi guys, I believe that at this stage the Chinese fighter export industry still lags behind the US, Europpean and Russian industries in what I’sd call “export tradition” and post sale support. I belive the only “considerable” air force that has opted for chinese fighters is still Pakistan with Iran and Egypt coming relatively further down the road from Pak… I sure can’t see Chinese fighters breaking into, and in relevant numbers, the South American and/or South Asian fighter markets… Maybe some 15 years ahead… If Egypt decides to buy a slew of J-10Bs for instance and/or Iran goes for the J-20 this would certainly open the doord for many new clients such as Indonesia and Malaysia or even Venezuela… Until then Russia with the Su-35S and the PAK/FA would certainly be the ones to be beat in the 3rd world fighter market.
This is just my 2 cents…
Coments?
Regards,
Hammer
HammerHi guys! Here’s the latest cut from Brazil… 😉
The reported Dilma declaration that other airplanes would be let into the process has come today from the Brasilia Desk at “O Globo” newspaper. The previous undestanding was that Dilma was to look into this process beyond the “sole option” (Rafale) defended by Def Minister Jobim. By doing this Dilma was kiking Jobim to the side while simultaneously severely curtailing his previous Lula-awarded “carte blanche”. The allowance of new players into the bid for now has only been announced by O Globo and my friends at the Folha de São Paulo newspaper Brasilia Branch say they haven’t heard anything in this particular direction. So I think we’ll have to wait until tomorrow’s papers to know how eep is this “reevaluation process”, if F-X2 is really dead or just slightly posponed…
Regards,
Hammer
HammerWas posted by =GT @ CDF : Link
New missiles for the J-20?
Only the PL-12C has foldable wings for internal carriage? What about the others?
Regards,
HAmmer
HammerDo the Chinese characters in the back of the plane add anything relevant? 😎
Regards,
Hammer
HammerThis week’s update:
1) The 3 (Army, Navy and AF) current force commanders have confirmed they will stay onboard into the next government rhat starts in Jan 1st. Def Min Nelson Jobim, is stayimg as well
2) The civilian aviation organizations (Infraero = Airports, and ANAC = the Brazilian “FAA”) are finally being extracted from inside the Ministry of Defense.
3) Dilma held private consultations with each of the force commanders WITHOUT Jobim being present (much to his dismay!)
4) Nelson Jobim is being tasked with one last commercial aviation item the impendin strike of Aviation workers scheduled for the holiday season and just today deemed ilegal by the courts… Taking care of this will keep his mind off other things such as the F-X2 until the next year at least..
5) Dilma suggested to the press she plans to settle the F-X2 thing before the end of next year’s 1st half
Merry Christmas!
Hammer
HammerLook here for photos of the delivery event in Brasilia.
Regards,
Hammer
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