HammerIs it worth ripping apart used 757s & doing all that to them? There are plenty of old A300/A310/Boeing 767 available for conversion, & they wouldn’t need increased MTOW, upgraded engines, or beefed-up landing gear to match or exceed the KC-135.
You are right, Swerve, the 757 military version lost all (if any of) its meaning when the base aircraft was discontinued. Although the 757 had about 1/2 (not 1/3rd!) of the fuel of the KC-135, the two engines ought to spend less then the four CFM-56 on the older plane. Also adding at least one extra fuel tank into the cargo hold soesn’t seem to me to be something too complex, it’s been done repetedly on many aircraft types.
The Colombians have certainly bought their 767.
Regards,
HAmmer
HammerChile quit trying to get the used A310s and settled for two used KC-135E from the USAF an a non-refueling B767. South Africa has quit the A400M bandwagon altogether and now is a prospective KC-390 client, next to Colombia, Portugal and Brazil.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerI enjoy your insights to this whole escapade, Hammer. Thanks for taking the time to bang them out on the keyboard.
Thank you too MadRat, I just want to share some local perspective with you.
Regards,
HAmmer
HammerMy take on this news:
Very sly move by Lula. He knows that he needs some political cover to justify the selection of Rafale, and now he has it: KC-390.
Lula knows that the Swedes and Americans can’t commit to buying KC-390; the French already have. So KC-390 is just being used as a new fake selection criteria to eliminate ex post all contenders other than Rafale. From the French perspective this is fine because they actually can put the KC-390 to decent use, to fit in between the C-295 and A400M for small payload logistics missions.
Dassault must be smiling today. 😉
Hi there guys!
Here’s my take on this turn of events… As I see it the KC-390 does not fit very well into the French Air Force transport fleets of the Future… Take a look at the number of A400M ordered both by France (50) and Germany (60) and compare to the number of much smaller sized C-130/Transall used previously by each nation… (FRA: 14/52 and GER: 0/83).
The jump (GROWTH) in the airlift capacity in both forces is to put it mildly MONSTROUS and from where I see the only reasonable explanation for this massive upscaling is the real-world need to give Airbus Military the minimum production run to economically justify the brand new European airlifter.
If France takes in the 12 hypotetical KC-390s from Brazil does it maintain the current A400 order numbers? In the middle of a global crisis? In the exact same moment that Airbus Military is putting its clients to the ropes in order to have them pay even more for an already extremely expensive new model? Moving on, lets supose the KC390 is roughly equivalent to 1/2 the A400M airlift capability., if the French Air Force adds an originally unforecast 12 aircraft of this model, does it consequently imply that now at least 6 A400M become totally redundant? How does thi order cut affect A400M unit prices?
So, if I was now working for Airbus Military this KC390 purchase news would drive me absolutely bonkers, and I’d do whatever was in my power to block and kill this deal inside the French political establishment.
If not as so my country (and by the way, my main shareholder, as well) assists another company/country in launching a modern competitor to my own embattled product in the world market…
Though the individual payloads of the KC-390 and A400M are very different it may be very difficult for the French Air Force to fill up such a large freight hold on every single flight, thus generating many ineficient cargo transport missions (thus larger per Kilo/per pound transport costs) than on a smaller, faster and cheaper military transport as the KC390. If the KC390 interest was consistent then, in my view, the mix betwen it and the A400M at least in theory should tend towards the Brazilian aircraft leaving the smaller (6-12) A400M fleet to fight it off for its existence with the even larger C-17 for example.
I only disgressed this far to argue that the strategy of adding the 12 KC390 French order to try to sweeten the Rafale proposalto Brazil might in the end only serve to add other new and powerful “enemies” to the Dassault sale proposal, only this time from within Europe and France itself.
Embraer would certaily love to have the French 12 KC390 deal in its order books but this is definetly not Embraer’s sole call. If the French offered to buy the Super Tucanos instead, a 80-100 aircraft purchase (like tho one imagined by the US Navy) for exemple, this Airbus Military counter-pressure to the Rafale deal would certainly not materialise in the same way.
So the two last news items om the F-X2 published in Brazil (agricultural breaks fo Brazil and the 12 KC390s) all seem in the end to WORK AGAINST the Rafale deal rather than im favour of it in my point of view…
What do you think? Do I make any sense?
Regards,
Felipe
HammerI have also been reading several similar local reports of the recent tying-up of the F-X2 choice to an hypotetical cut in Agricultural subsidies in the EU (mainly those in France)…
If this is so, against all other previous expectations I think the Rafale offer may have been given it’s “kiss of death”…
By politicaly putting the VERY POWERFUL Agricultural Lobby against this Rafale sale to Brazil someone in the Brazilian government has probably created an untennable obstacle for the Dassault sales people.
Tying up these two unconected subjects might help publicly explain a Brazilian Government turnabout in the previously announced Rafale decision…
I’n all the previous years of the F-X1 and F-X2 the French agricultural issue has never been brought up before… It makes one ponder why!
Comments?
Hammer
HammerLast week minister Jobim went to France before following to Italy and Turkey.
Certainly the Rafale is in his mind for the first stop, followed by FREMMs and Commandante Class 1800 tons patrol Vessels on the second and finally a joint Brazil-Turkey atomic materials hosting arrangement for Iranian nuclear fuel on the last… This is what local Def Ministry observers deduced…
Last week had a major holiday on the wednesday so it ended up being rather slow in terms of F-X2 news, but on Thursday we had the Fighter Aviation Day open house at Santa Cruz AB and the FAB went to extremes to avoid allowing the reporters present ANY access to military officers present. There is certainly a curtain of silence shrowding the FAB these days… In my opinion this certainly does not bode well for the Rafale bid.
Let’s see what the new week brings us.
Regards
HammerHi guys,
Let me put some of my ideas out so I cant try to make some sense here…
a) all the three F-X2 contenders are superb machines, all are a quantum jump forward when compared to today`s Brazilian Air Force. What hs been accepted over here is that the spec advantage that some of them have over the rest, this “fighter plus” is not going to determine who wins the bid in the end.
b) most of the transfer of technology will be directed towards Embraer, naturally, because it is the the most advanced aerospoace company in the Southern hemisphere. Any ToT given to other parties is likely wasted for a variety of reasons…
c) it was the Ministry of Defence that coined the “Total ToT transfer” phrase, FAB only requeste in the RFI/RFP 10 key technologies to be transfered, never anything as broad as “total”…
d) Embraer has most of its business in the commercial and biz-jet segments. I personally believe that in Embraer`s perspective if the ToT gained in the F-X2 deal has commercial or biz-jet applications much the better than if it is “next gen fighter especific ToT”. The difficulties Rafale has faced inh the international bids it has paticipated and lost (due mostly to political pressure) tells me tha a Brazilian designed and developed 4,5 fighter (or even 5 gen!) would face absurdly severe hurdles to be able to be sold to other nations.
e) I have still very significant personal doubts if the STEEP unit and maintenance price hike conected to the current “5th gen stealth aircraft” is going to be justified in the end. Ithyink we`ll need another Gulf War sized conflict to put away the doubts. The S300 and S400 (and modern chinese equivalents) are just now entering service around the world and no one really knows at this stage how will they fare against swarms of western “invisible” fighters. As we all learned in the first Gulf War widely held tactical concepts such as “high speed tree hugging low level ingress” was ditched after the British Tornadoes fell one after another over Iraq. If stealth came at the same price tag as “regular” fighters I would shut up and lay this issue to rest, but this is definitely NOT the case. Call me if you will an 4.5 gen man. But the so called 5th gen air-air and air-ground combat efficiency and survivability is still to be proven. So Brazil developing a bulk of 4,5 gen fighter fleet seems very reasonable and prudent to me. If we eventually move into 5 gen it will certainly be in the forseable future in the form of a small sized highly lethal “silver bullet” unit or units, backed up by a larger number of cheaper 4,5gen aircraft.
Do I make any sense?
Regards
Hammer
Hammerit’s a pitty that this thead has been taken down on such pointless nationalistic inspired rants… The main issue here should be Brazil’s needs not the manufacturers plans. What Brazil really wants is CODEVELOPMENT. Towards this goal we are more than willing to wait a few more years to get our new fighters.
Regards
Hammer
Hammerapparently, Lula has decided.. not to decide…
His decision is delayed till the end of may… it seems that everybody in brasil know what they want except the president… now it’s the “syndicate of metal workers of sao paulo” that claims support for the gripen. I only wonder when we’ll get the national soccer team deciding who they support.
Hi guys,
The Swedes have gotten the support of the powerful SP state metal workers union, but this is in reality a major political stab to Lula`s back… It was exactly in this very same union that Lula began his olitical carrer in the seventies… It is in the ABC region around São Paulo city where his Workers Party (PT) was born. The mayor of São Bernardo do Campo who flew on a Gripen some weeks ago is himself an important Union leader and an ex-minister of the Lula Government. This sudden political repositioning may work to damage the president`s image with its hard core suporters i9n the workers unions… Let`s see what reaction these change of events extract from him, to this moment he opted to move away from the public political confrontation.
Also today the Ministério Publico Federal (Federal Prosecutors office) has declared that it will start looking into the F-X2 aquisition program to see if there is any sugestion of wrongdoing or criminal behaviour in this case…
This will not stop Lula from buying the rafale but it makes such a decision even more controversial. Also this move may work to further dalay the announcement of the decision beyond the may deadline…
As I said before, the Rafale is a wonderful fighter, no doubt, but the government has been very unfortunate in making a credible case for the selection of the clearly most expensive plane of the three.
Also, TooCool please dont go pushing forward these sore looser theories. It is not the best aircraft that will win but that defended by the shrewdest and fastest moving sales team. At this stage if F-X3 was canceled this would be clearly seen as a Dassault loss to the Swedes.
Ironicaly enough when the F-X2 process began some years ago the French lobby was incredibly well positioned. It was very close to the Ministry of Defense, to the Presidency and to the President`s political party. What we have seen recently is that the Swedish seem to have out-maneuvered the French in the recent turns and twists of this competition. The French believed that they had already won this bid by the third quarter of last year. Since them their stay quiet attitude has done little to compensate for Saab`s sustained weekly blows against their proposal.
In my opinion if Lula was confortable with this decision he would have announced it before. Oh, he did announce it! And look at the outcome of that outburst.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerIn a nutshell: not NOW it can`t.
The president`s party has the second largest number of senators and representatives in the Brazilian legislative body. The Oposition holds the third largest number and the PMDB party, the largest party is fluid, playing for and against the government party as it pleases. there is also a number of smaller parties that are atracted to the large money that the government is able to move around in its regular investment and expenses…
That being said there is an major presidential election scheduled for next October. Two candidates are heading the race Dilma who is the President`s party candidate and Serra who is running for the major opposition party.
Lula (the predent) is expected to anounce the F-X2 winner in April if it happens this way (and not gets postponed once again) in theory it would take at least one full year to flesh out all the contract details and to finally sign the final contract. This would put this “signing” inside the next presidential term. To be signed by someone other than the current president.
Right now the election seems it could easily go both ways, so: If Dilma wins in a landslide, the Rafale has its best chance to be confirmed one year from now. IF Serra on the other hand comes out victorious next October he may opt to cancel the whole bid once again.
Understand now?
Regards,
Hammer
HammerThe recurring F-X2 announcement delays directly contradict the “decision is already taken” official party line….
Delaying the announcement to April pushes it closer and closer to the October presidential elections which in turn gives a much more political conotation to this purchase. I’m sure the opposition parties will try to to block only to disturb this purchase to try to embarass the officil government candidate Dilma Roussef…. Further delaying this announcement is a very dangerous political gamble for Jobim and Lula… good luck for them.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerWe`ve been inside both Absalon and Frankfort am main recently, lots of pictures on these links. Enjoy!
Hammer
HammerSincerely, in their place I`d ditch western types altogether and pick the Chinese FC-1 or even better, the J-10. A 72-100 aircraft fleet of the J-10 ought to cost as much as a much smaller number of western fighters…. This would at the same time pack a major “punch” with the consequent regional geopolitical clout.
What do you think?
regards
Hammer
HammerBrazil’s FX program began in 2001. Its 2010 now and no decision has been made- thats approx the same time that the MRCA has lasted.
FX too was meant to urgently replace F-5s and companies made their final offers in May 2002. The Mirage-2000-5 was tipped to win then.
Not really, the fist aircraft to be substituted were the non mid-life updated Mirage IIIE/Ds in the the 1st GDA at Anapolis AB. The F-5s haviving just recently undergone modernization by Embraer to the F-5EM/FM standard were positioned for a later substitution. Only aftyer the AMX fleet were confirmed for the A-1M upgrade program is that the F-5 became the the next model in line for substitution by the F-X2 selected fighter. F-X1 only intended to replace the Mirages, that is why it would buy only 12 aircraft. The delay that generated the F-X2 saw the purchase numbers climb to a total of 36 aircraft.
In late June 2002, the commander of the Air Force was to deliver a report to the government that would announce the winner. Then it was revealed in September 2002 that an F-X BR decision had been postponed until after the 15 November 2002 election. A decision was expected by that year-end. Then, Brazil’s new government immediately postponed the decision for another year. The program was slated to restart before the end of 2003, with all competitors will be given a chance to update their proposals before a winner is announced in 2004 (second time that a winner would be announced). All the vendors submitted their bids and the expected costs were around $1 billion or so for 12-16 fighters..and after that the entire competition got cancelled. that isn’t farcical ? They had to go upgrade the F5 and buy second-hand Mirage-2000Cs that won’t last too long because of this cancellation.
Only two of the manufactures bidding in F-X1 were able to bid inside the government`s US$700 funding cap, those were Sukhoi/Avibras and MiG. All others overshot tha number, Embraer/Dassault was the one offering the single highest proposal.
The subsequent 12 M2000C off the shelf purchase from the French Government was a way for the government to jump away from Lula`s pre-election publicly announced commitment to purchase “the M2000Br Brazilian fighter jet” from Embraer/Dassault.
The US Government is coming in droves to Brazil right now, starting with Sec State Hillary Clinton. At the same time the USS Carl Vinson comes to Rio on its trip from the East Coast to it`s new base in San Diego. Naturally a large number of Brazilian politician, reporters and pVIAPs wer taken to the CVN in order to see the Boeing F-18E/Fs do their impressive “Air Power Demonstration”. There was some comments of a possible F-18 “courtesy” visit to the Brazilian Air Force Base of Santa Cruz outside Rio, but as far as I was able to ascertain this never happened. Also no Ministry of Defense head honchos apparently felt like visiting the Carl Vinson this time around.
The Navy was present and two of it`s A-4Ku (“A/F-1” in Brazil) came over and did some approximation flights and low passes on the US carrier. Here are the pictures: http://www.alide.com.br/joomla/index.php/component/content/article/75-extra/1139-o-vf-1-volta-a-empregar-seus-af-1-junto-com-um-porta-avioes
Regards,
Hammer
Regards,
HammerHammer any info if the Carl Vinson will be on Santos port also?
Nope, its next port will be ValparaÃso in Chile. There will be though Passex with the Uruguayan and Argentinian Navy’s on their way to Chile.
Regards,
Hammer
P.S.: Had my first C-2 Greyhound ‘trap” and catapult lauch this week, NEAT! 😉
Hammer
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