Hi Pepê, welcome aboard!

On the recent RNoAF next gen fighter evaluation I can only say what the SAAB people told me last year.

The guy running the Gripen offering there said that they were clearly able to convince the full local government and Norwegian industry to back up a “pan-scandinavian” next gen fighter vision built around the upcoming Gripen NG but the US-focused Norwegian Air Force leadership steadfastedly refrained from even doing an independent evaluation of the NG opting instead to remain a “faithful Lockheed F-35 convert” force.

In the end the Government wasn’t able to swing the military brass’ point of view leasing to Saab dropping its proposal.

On the Swedes behalf one can at lleast say that the “uncertainty level” remaining around the Gripen NG now after so many Demo flights were completed must have been reduced considerably.

Regards,

Hammer

On the Pepe Rezende issue we now know now deeply the Brazilian internet Defense Forums are being monitored (and used) by the Brazilian Military Forces. For this reason many new developments are being fed to the most prominent forum members in order to be “floated around” and to be discreetly fed to the general press. Good info and biased reports are both being delivered via the Internet in order to push public support one way or another. Pepe is certainly one of these very prominent internet forum members being targeted by the politicians, air force, navy and the F-X2 participants.

Pepe started the F-X2 program openly supporting the Su-35+PAK/FA combo, he switched to the Saab Gripen C/D (against the NG which he deems “too risky”) and now believes that between the current three contenders the Rafale is the best option. That is his take on things and I can only respect him for it.

I’ll invite him here so he can explain his points of view 😉

Regards,

Hammer

I agree perfectly with what has been said here before but I need to point out three thing little that apparently has been neglected… The power of initiative, the widespread knowledge about what is stealth and the growing human costs of military operations especially in highly developed nations.

In all the wars since Vietnam the US air forces have had the “confort” of having the power to determine exactly where and when the conflict was to begin. The careful planning and ample time to preposition forces, as well as a previous arms embargo or two, certainly gave the americans the liberty of arranging the chess pieces in the board to their advantage before actual fighting began. This “power of initiative” is only possible due to the practicaly unlimited support (pre-Iraq and pre-Afghan) the US military had from the US public.

As a 43-YO Brazilian I can safely say that absolutely no Brazilian taxpayer would support a military invasion against a country located across the globe that had absolutely no concrete chance of invading our homeland first… I imagine it to be true for many other countries, but not for the USA.

On the Stealth issue, I believe Stealth stopped being the wunderwaffen after it was disclosed to the public after GW1. From this point on the manufacturers of radars ands SAMs knew exactly what they’d be tasked to acheive in the following years, certainly a great business oportunity for them. Nothing like the feeling of “being needed” to sparke the creativity! Still on Stealth you can have stealth fighters but they still need tankers and AWACS support which to my knowledge dont still come in the LO shape and flavour. Kill the big planes and the little ones lose their long legs and powerful offboard datalinked sensors… Also taking a cue from the British concerns in the hypotetical european Theater of Operations of the 70s/80s fixed air bases are a crucial war asset that if destroyed beforehand (with the previously mentioned “power of initiative”!) wpuld severely curtail the flexibility and tactical vcalue of one’s new and shiny stealth fighter fleet.

Finally there is the one item we must never forget the “cost card”. The human being is doomed to become the most expensive of all warfighting machines. Just look at how much it is costing (in terms of salaries, direct and indirect benefits) the US armed forces to recruit, train, care medically and finally retire these “modern” military personel. Certainly they are of a much better intelectual level then the grunts of past US armies but their cost is similarly now been multiplied by factors of ten. How long until the human cost of a big standing army becomes untennable for the US economy? The dream of a people-less military have all but been dismissed by the repeated inteligence errors generating unsupportable civilian casualties as seen in the latest wars… Maybe China with its unique 10%+ GDP growth numbers can afford to keep the modernization and technical expansion of its military forces at its high pace, but what other countris can follow them in ths expensive path? I know of none.

Do I make any sense here?

Regards,

Hammer

Hi guys,

Back here after a 25 day trip to Africa! 🙂

There are some things that we must address here.

Jobim is clearly set into purchasing the Rafales whatever the cost (both political and economical). Despite Jobim’s claims in May, apparently these planes have indeed being doing something else than moving ahead in the last 60 days. Who knows, maybe they were indeed “playing football”. 😉 Please note that Jobim belongs to one of the many regional factions of PMDB Brazil’s largest political party, not to Lula’s PT party.

This being said one can justly infer that just because this is Jobim’s pick does not necessarily imply it would naturally be Lula’s choice as well.

In order to be properly understood the Rafale deal HAS be seen and judged against the similarly priced and timed France-Brazil submarine deal.

Although VERY EXPENSIVE in absolute dollar values the submarine deal crossed Congress (during one of its mosturbulent times in recent years!) in JUST TWO DAYS! There was no opposition party backoffice maneuvers against it and absolutely no restrictions to it voiced whatsoever!

On the other hand the Rafale purchase has been running circles, unable even to exit the Ministry of Defence building. As I see it and as I was told by some insiders Jobim is having a very hard time to complete his recomendation memmorandum on this subject. Every time he has to go to Congress to explain this deal to the Senators and Representatives the several groups interested in a non-Rafale decision go to the press to show that the Minister’s own reasonings fail to properly address the issues reasonably. From what I heard he has had to write his recommendation memorandum three times already.

The National Defense Council is just a consultative body composed of a handful of related ministers and the presidents of the two houises of Congress besides, natuiraly of the three Commanders of the military forces. This Council would never block a decision that has already been taken by their boss the President. If thios Council has not been summoned by now it is because Lula, and no one elese, is just not ready top announce this decision.

So if Lula realy WANTED to sign this deal it would be signed by now and would never be pushed into the turbulent political waters of his last year in power… The fact that it mede it to here means clearly a lack of interest on Lula’s behalf to see it concluded, there is just no other plausible option.

One other issue haunting Jobim is the changing late in the game of the weights assigned to each evaluation item on the RFP. The National Defense Strategy (END) predates the restart of the F-X2 program. The documents sent to tha bidders clearly stated what were the key deciding factors neded to win this bid and ALSO stated how much each of these items would be weighted. To me it is clear that the Ministry of Defence should have been informed of these weights BEFORE They were sent to the bidders. In that way if Jobim felt these weighs for some reason conflicted with the previously published END he shoud have them fixed THEN!

On the contrary, when the FAB issued weighs showed the Rafale would lose the bid Jobim had to change these weighs as a last ditch measure to try to save the french deal. He changed the weighs post facto, after the bidders had already sent in two updated proposals in their best and final conditions. A weight change now, at this late stage, is clearly a measure to benefit one player over the other two. On the issued RFPs all the decision steps for the purchase were clearly spelt out to the participants and there there was no mention of the possibility of changing the ponderation weighs after the delivery of the proposals…

Even if Jobim has his way this one-sided decision is a wonderful, a perfect case for the loosing companies to sue the Brazilian Government over an unfair and twisted bidding process. Does Lula want this to surface against him at the end of his term in office? I have my doubts!

I ask all of you now to try to put your foot on the other side’s shoe to see how does this change in rules feel?

All my French friends: I understand your passion for the Rafale product and program. It’s selection by the FAB would have clearly many crucial and long-lasting implications for the long term benefit of the French fighter industry and of its work force, and lest not forget the highly defensible issue of your country’s national pride…

BUT: what if the Rafale in some other international bid was winning on all accounts only to be swept aside by the whims of a single person, government organization or political group? Would you not be very upset?

Wish me no harm, please! 😉

Regards,

Hammer

These are the reasons

MB Commander speaks to ALIDE aboard Cv Barroso in Angola

http://www.alide.com.br/joomla/index.php/component/content/article/75-extra/1413-comandante-da-mb-fala-a-alide-a-bordo-da-cv-barroso-em-angola

Written by me, translated by Mr Google (please excuse his poor English):

In Luanda to attend the meeting of Navies of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, Admiral Julio Moura Neto visited on Tuesday the Corvette Barroso, which is docked in the main port of this African country.
The Corvette Barroso (V-34) is in the midst of her first long duration trip since it was incorporated into the Brazilian Navy on August 19, 2008. On his second visit to the ship, the Commander of the Navy of Brazil finally had the chance to tour unhurried the ship`s departments and major internal spaces of the fifth corvette.
After returning to Rio, Barroso will undergo a process of Operational Assessment that will determine whether she is fit to perform their role within the Fleet. “This assessment,” said the ‘Charlie-Mike’ ,” is that the Navy will say that the ship is ready and will point out if there is still any area of the ship that need to be improved, either in terms of crew training or equipment and systems the ship. If the very positive information we are receiving is fully confirmed, the design changes incorporated on the Corvette Barroso will have proved to be a great success. This is a ship class that we must not abandon, we should, yes, invest further in it. I would love to see more ships of this class in service in the Navy of Brazil to prove to anyone around the world, that in our country we have the capacity to design modern ships as good as any other country. I’m the first to say how improved this ship compared to the Inhauma corvette class, this shows us that we are on track. “
“Our Plan Organization and Modernization of the Navy fleet already envisages a total of 30 escorts to be divided, 18 of them in Rio de Janeiro and the other twelve in the headquarters of the new Fleet to be established in North / Northeast of the country. It is natural to imagine that at least part of this fleet will be comprised of Barroso-class corvettes . “
Still, according to the Admiral, the final location of the new Naval Base has not been determined, this being a longer term program, even without specific implementation dates. The new surface units to be built, initially, will be delivered to the First Fleet, at the Naval Base located in Rio de Janeiro, on the island of Mocanguê. Only when this First Fleet is properly equipped, that will start deliveries of vessels for the Second Fleet. The new frigates of 6,000 tons and future Barroso-class corvettes will coexist for several years still with the upgraded Niteroi frigates and corvettes to the existing class Inhaúma.
He also said that other ships also more numerous in Rio than in the Second Fleet as the operating area of the First Fleet is larger and more critical than the last. “For example, among the ships of multiple employment, only one will be in the Second Fleet, while the other three will be based in Rio Being only two new aircraft carriers will be divided one for each of the two bases.”
Concerning the agreement between Brazil and Italy recently announced in the press, the Navy Commander said that from now on, trading between the two countries shall be guided solely by bilateral negotiation for the precise determination of costs, timelines and deadlines for package production ships. They discussed five ocean patrol vessels, five frigates and FREMM a logistical support ship to be built by the Navy of Brazil. The Italian shipyard Fincantieri Navy has provided the initial costs of each of these units and this allowed us to close the settlement with them. The Navy expects this phase of negotiations to shut down even before the expiry of the mandate of the current government, which would allow the President Lula, in view of the presidential election results, advertising, or not, the final agreement. Moura Neto complemented by saying that “our idea is to go to a crescendo, making first the construction of NaPaOc first, followed by logistics support ship, and finally ending with the frigates, because they are complex and expensive ships.”
The Italians have proposed that at least the first frigate of 6000 tons for Brazil was made entirely in Italy, but this is not the Navy’s plan, which provides that “all these new naval units to be built in Brazil, but this time outside the Navy. We will use the yards of the new Brazilian shipbuilding industry as a way to dramatically increase the training and technological know-how national this area. “
When addressing the Commander of the Corvette Barroso, the Commander of the Navy formally thanked the crew of the ship for your tremendous effort in the readiness of the newest escort ship of the Navy of Brazil. He further commented that “this ship is ready to be shown to the world and it certainly will bring us many joys.” He finished off saying how the mere presence of this ship on another continent after eleven days crossing the sea, proves the obvious success of Barroso and are proud of. You are part of a very important time in the Navy. One moment we see the fruits of which only much later, months, years later. With this joint visit by Barroso and Gaston Motta, the Navy is showing the world their capacity for mobility. “We can go anywhere in the world because we have this ability to take our ships to anywhere. Any naval officer realizes this immediately to see Barroso here. “
On Wednesday, June 30, representatives of the various navies of the CPLP countries will come on board for a cocktail to be held in the hangar and convoi Corvette Barroso taking the opportunity to make personal contact with the most advanced naval technology in Brazil.

Hi guys!

All the Garcias have been removed permanently from BN service, the ex-Pernambuco has even been painted with photo assistance markings for an upcoming SinkEx. The hulls of both Pará and Pernambuco are being kept in the “boneyard” sector of the Rio de Janeiro Naval Base waiting for their final destinies, the extremely dilapidated Dodsworth is right next to them. They are definitely NOT “in reserve”, their service is over , finito, unless if you consider becoming “deluxe fish housing” some sort of “military mission”! 😉

This time around the French have been caught with their pants down, they clearly underestimated the Italians’ ability to out flank their “upclose and personal” relationship with the Brazilian Navy sealed with the SBR submarine sale last year. Maybe they thought that the surface warrior business would require the construction of a new Arsenal de Marinhja just the way the submarine deal demanded a new shipbuilding unit nexto to the new sub base in Sepetiba Bay. Apparently, in order to save costs, the Brazilian admirals are willing to have most of our (first!) FREMMs built outside of the country…

Let’s see how ‘well”/”fast” does this deal evolve in these very politicaly charged times, with the presidential election looming only four months away…
Regards,

Hammer

Brazil hasn’t bought FREMMs from Italy. There’s been an unconfirmed Brazilian press report.

However, to answer the question “Why would Brazil buy Fremms from Italy and not France?”, there are a few possible answers.
Price. It’s been reported that Italy is offering FREMM at a lower price.
Better radar on the Italian FREMM.
Eggs/basket syndrome. Don’t get too dependent on one supplier.

There may be others.

Hi Guys, its rather more than just “an unconfirmed report”, this news came out of the mouth of the Commander of thee Brazilian Navy during a public address to a mostly former navy audience last Friday at the Naval Club in downtown Rio…

Regards,

Hammer

There is a mistake here: the hotest Super Tucano esport prospect in the USA is not the USAF, its the US Navy! Also, don’r forget the Super Tucano costs “peanuts” when compared to the regular aircraft already budgeted in the US armed forces shopping cart.

The USAF is much mor vulnerable to political pressure of the US industry, so for this their need for a slow turboprop COIN aircraft will develop much more slowly than the US Navy’s requirement which is needed in the Afghanistan theater ASAP.

Regards,

Hammer