HammerThe Brazilian armed forces are very very late in fielding UAVs, so manufacturing them, at least to me seams absurdly farfetched at this stage.
People close to the “politicos” in Brasilia are nowe assuming that the Haitian Earthquake may delay (or be used to delay) the whole F-X2… Brazilian troops on the ground should be doubled and Brazilian Navy ships are getting ready to sail for Haiti. At this stage there is absolutely how much this continued and expanded role in the devastated Caribbean country will end up costing for Brazil. So if Lula feels that the French would not be able to deliver the aggressive pricing we demand the haitian crisis may be a political acceptable excuse to pospone this deal into the next government…
Regards,
Hammer
HammerThe US abrupt assumption of control of the Haitian airspace, after generating major disconfort yesterday amongst other relief/donor nations apparently has been reverted to the proper Haitian authorities with the US military taking a lesser “supporting” role. The Airport’s tower according to news sources has completely crumbled and is totally inoperative.
By yesterday the Brazilian airforce had some 6 relief loaded C-130/B707s in other airports waiting authorization to fly into PAP.
Today three of them have managed to get in there.
Regards, Hammer
HammerWell, Too Cool, I imagine your comment below to be true in many other cases, but not this time around. I’m a Defense Journalist in Rio, the editor and owner of Base Militar Web Magazine, so in essence it is my JOB to know these people, and I garantee you, things are exactlty as I put it despite how frustrating it may sound to you.
About the IstoÉ article you use to support your ideas… Well, these guys are just a weekly generalist news magazine (in the likes of Time or Newsweek… but less reliable). And they simply don’t have defence specialist reporters in their regular staff… Because of this you may sometimes end up with articles that are less factually correct then they ought to be., Just like the one you refer too.
For instance, during the original canceled F-X bid some years ago, IstoÉ was jokingly refered as “Embraer’s mouthpiece” because they wrote all their articles wildly distorted towards the Embraer PR area’s point of view. This time around they have covered this new F-X2 bid much more superficialy and impartialy (at least until THIS particular article you so much appreciated.).
On the lobbying issue, none of the manufacturers have permanent marketing/sales units based in Brazil. These are set-up temporarily and MUST rely on people that understand the inner workings and values of both Embraer and the Brazilian Air Force. Without such local knowledge there is absolutely no chance the foreign company will be able to know which way the wind is blowing on such an expensive and sensitive bid. Every one, the French, Swedes and Americans, hired their own local experts, IstoÉ managed to identify only the ones working for Saab, if they’d done better research all names might have surfaced, not just the ones working legitimaly for the Swedes.
Regards,
Hammer
So “I know the guy” is more credible than a public article in the press? I don’t know, but if what the article says is a false accusation, aren’t there laws in brasil permitting SAAB and named persons to sue the newspaper who published these “false accusations”?
The source I have was given 2-3 pages before on this very board.. if you’re too lazy to read it, I pasted teh part of it I base my writing on… what source do you have to say it’s not true?
FABs signature? If the article says true, its the “relations” of the retired brigadier who signed for the FAB..; so much about “FAB agreeing”
what did you show until know? a precise article is published, and you say “there are no sources”.. prove it
HammerI don’t think you got the point Sign (and others) have made.
FAB didn’t do the evaluation by them self. They were part of a committee doing the F-X2 evaluation. In this committee, there were other parties with interest in the deal e.g. the industry.
Thus, FAB didn’t “take care of” Embraer’s “interests BEFORE their own”. The industry was represented and could take care of their own interests.
Hammer, thanks for sharing your views and shedding some light on the deal.
Hey no problem TGIF, we are all here to learn a thing or two, right? 😉
But now please allow me to clear up a minor point in your above message…
FAB DID DO THE EVALUATION ALL BY ITSELF!
Industry, was merely “consulted” on some particular items, specially those regarding local manufacture opportunities and commercial and technical proposed off-sets offered by the bidders. And that’s it! In the end only FAB officials inside COPAC had a complete view, the so called “big picture” of the F-X2 competition…
Regards,
Hammer
HammerAgreed on both, but I suspect that there would be strong political resistance to France buying an alternative IR AAM. A customer would have to integrate one, & then reach agreement with Dassault to offer the solution to other customers.
I believe that Dassault itself would eventually benefit from the Rafale users having a broader list of AAMs to choose from. On the other hand EADS Dassault’s second largest shareholder (being the owner of MBDA) might feel differently about this issue. Right now, every new fighter sale from France is automatically a new French missile sale. Quite convenient for MBDA, ha? 😉
Regards,
Hammer
HammerSo is the story that Saito was not involved in including rankings in the report, contrary to the remit?
If not him, what parties chose to go against their remit and do so?
What sort of investigation and consequences are seen happening re: this issue?
There will be ABSOLUTELY NO consequences from this leaking, Lula has stated so this week. There has been a MAJOR political issue between the Human Rights area of the Government (chaired and managed by key people from the farther left of Lula’s already very leftist leaning PT party) and the Defence Ministry (as well as with the Agriculture Ministry, and the Catholic Church, and the Homosexual Rights Groups, and many other proheminent political interest groups) that ended up puting Lula himself in a very tight political corner. To ease up this pressure cooker he was forced to relax the tone of the due retaliations against the report “leakers”, whoever they may be.
All clear on this point? 😉
Regards,
Hammer
HammerJust to know it. Did you have access to it?
No, not personally.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerDon’t you think Brazil will integrate the A-Darter?
I haven’t found any indications on what it might cost though. Perhaps its not cheaper to acquire than the Mica IR.
Giving Brazil the freedom and knowledge needed to adapt new weapons systems to the winning F-X fighter is the CORNERSTONE of the whole Brazilian Air Force ToT requirement. Not providing this “basic” capability is a sure deal breaker, that is exactly Boeing’s greater vulnerability in this bid. Both the Brazilian Air Force and Government simply DO NOT TRUST US resolve to provide this level of military/technological independence to us now or in the future.
Regards,
Hammer
Hammersure, that’s IF they lower it. somehow I think the French may not be able to.
That is exactly Lula’s conundrum right now.
a) He has declared publicly and repeatedly that Brazil would to buy Rafales and that for this reason Dassault OUGHT to lower prices considerably.
b) Dassault (in theory, at least!) now knows it has won the bid. SO, what reason does it have to even consider lowering their prices? After all “the competition phase is over”, right?
Looking at all this from the “outside”, Saab and Boeing now hope that these two very conflicting points of view might make the whole Rafale deal untenable, which in turn would reopen to them, once again, a new “window of opportunity” in this bid.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerFAB wants something else because of strong lobbying from SAAB/Embraer. Much of the points raised in the report have nothing to do with a purely technical evaluation. Why would the FAB care about Embraer profits? They should only be concerned about getting a plane that’s up to the job and which will bring them the most sovereignty over it in during its lifetime. T
Nic
Nicolas, You also seem not to have undestood the subleties of this purchase. Bear with me for a while…
Embrae is a company born inside the FAB, created by FAB visionaries and created to give THE COUNTRY a real aerospace development sector. FAB is very proud that around 70% of its aircreft have been built in Brazil. despite the fact that almos all of FABs brazilian aircraft use US supplied engines (like an hypoteical Gripen NG would) it is a common concept inside FAB that the current level of Embraer technical skils allow FAB to desire for a less-US conected supply line. Recent US embargoes on missile/rocket related technologies as well as AMXs and Super Tucanos for Venezuela have left a distinctly sour taste in the FAB leadership’s mouth… Embraer is a very important asset to FAB if it fails, loses a lot of money or goes broke, most of the Brazilian Air Force Fleet will be grounded with it. On the political scxenario Embraer is a very significant campaign/elections fund donator so their financial well being is critical to the local political world. Rhe recent Estrategia Nacional de Defesa has put it as bluntly as possible there will be no moder Braqzilian armed forces without a heathy and modfern competitive national defense industry. See? This is why Embraer’s priorities are central to this and any future purchase decision relating to defence equipment. I can assure you that for tyhe lack of a REAL enemy at the cates the development of the local defense industry is MUCH more important to Brazil as a nation than the detailed tecnical requirements drafted by the FAB generals…
“Strong Saab lobying” is not driving the facts in Brazil, what’s driving them is Dassault’s incapacity to address national development need as well as Saab has been able to do.
Do I make myself clear on this issue?
Regards,
Hammer
Hammerin this particular case, the two persons hired by SAAB, one which is at home in the comittee that had to write the report (basically, they could’ve handed the paperwork to SAAB to do it, doesn’t look very impartial to me) and another which is closely related to embraer, and Embraer, according to that article, was interested in buying part of SAAB through exchange of shares, which means, again, they had interest in buying the Gripen, even if it was a total piece of crap (not that it is, but that would make no difference in the financial interests of the company).
Now, you make a sum of that:
– SAAB employee inside the comittee who made the report
– SAAB employee “inside embraer”who can believe one second that the “leaked” report was anything by SAAbs spinning?
Man you are SO lost in the woods! I know both gentlement the atricle refers to. They are honest, serious and professional. The USED to work for FAB and Embraer, which is a BIG different to being a “man inside” ineptly as you put it above. The are prive consultants who know excalty what is crucial in the minds of FAB and Embraer leaders. Their work is to assist Saab in setting up their proposal so it appeals both to Embraer and FAB. Nothing is wrong here it’s just superior salesmanship from the Swedish side, Maybe Dassault or Boeing ought to have hired them instead of Saab… But they didn’t!
So, Too Cool, if you have no clue about what’s happening over here as you’ve shown repeatedly please try not to keep imagining rose-tinted hypotetical scenarios that make Dassault’s proposal seem better than it really is.
Ask us who are monitoring this development from upclose and we’ll gladly tell you everything.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerCan anyone tell me why the EF wasn’t shortlisted in Brazil? Were there any official statements, or any requirements that it wasn’t able to fullfil?
The official reason is that EF has too many “parents”, companies and countries, so negotiating an overaching and aggressive ToT agreement as desired by Brazil was seen as “close to impossible” by the Brazilian Air Force. It just seemed simpler with Dassault, Saab and Boeing.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerI could be wrong, but I think the Rafale was rated the highest in the Brazilian technical evaluation. Rafale ranked higher than the Super Hornet in the Brazilian technical evaluation, at least in EW/ECM/avionics. I can’t speak for the other categories, but I know it has a much higher thrust/weight, much lower wing loading, and can supercruise (if only marginally).
You are dead wrong in your assertion. Gripen NG took the clear lead in the FAB report.
Regards,
Hammer
HammerHammer, this seems to contradict what you said about the leaks being from the final report and not the first version?
What is funny with all this, is that, after Rafale has lost several competions due to politics (at least according to Dassault and the French) it now seems that their potential first sell will be due to… politics 😉
Folha newspaper sustains that the leaked docs come from a final evaluation report writen after the delivery of the last “Best and Final Offer” that was requested from the bidders at the Lula Sarkozy meeting in Sept 7th. The conflicting info, according to Folha, is just a Government ruse to minimise the importance of the information present in the leaked document. If they didn’t contest it’s origin or the quality of the info Jobim and Lula would have to explain ro the press why after all the goverment’s “pressure tactics” the French have still not lowered their prices…
Do I make any sense in English? 😉
Regards,
Hammer
HammerNow I am utterly confused: I thought the leaked report was the first version of the report since it contained a ranking? AFAIK Jobim told the FAB to remove the ranking in the new version of the report?
Google translated:
I’m a personal friend of the Folha de Sao Paulo Bureau Chief in Brasilia, he has read the leaked FAB documents and insists that they represent the LATEST report, not the first one.
Regards,
Hammer
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