The USAF experience –
Creech Blue: Gen Bill Creech and the Reformation of the Tactical Air Forces, 1978–1984
The “Warfighter Conference”
Shortly after taking command of TAC, General Creech called his subordinate air division and wing commanders to Langley AFB, Virginia, for a conference that would, in retrospect, play a significant role in shaping the future of the Air Force. In a national magazine, Creech read an interview with a young captain who had just returned from a Red Flag exercise. When asked what he learned at Red Flag, the captain replied, “I learned you can’t survive in combat.” Creech described his reaction: “I came up out of my seat! The problem wasn’t that he thought that way; the problem was that he was exactly right in thinking that way. We were using tactics that weren’t going to work.” Creech recognized that TAC had a “propensity 27 to put a ‘realistic training’ tag on unrealistic wartime strategy and tactics” and called a commander’s conference, requiring his commanders to wear their flight suits and fly their own combat aircraft to Langley. The conference covered many topics, but the central issue was what Creech has since described as “go low disease.” Gen Jack I. Gregory, then a TAC wing commander and later the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) commander, recalled, “We covered multiple issues in the way we were training to go to war, but the key focus was clearly on low-level tactics. He articulated a refreshing new vision for employing from more effective sets of altitudes through the use of the full range of defense suppression assets . . . and he got full buy in from his commanders.”
Creech had long been skeptical of the low-level tactics then in use, and he was determined to change Air Force tactical thinking. As Soviet surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems became more prominent in Vietnam, American pilots began to fly under the radar coverage of the missile systems, only to find an increasingly deadly AAA threat at low altitudes. As Vietnam came to a close, it was apparent that the AAA threat was far more deadly with 1,433 of 1,543 aircraft being shot down from the ground, being lost to ground fire, and the remaining 110 being lost to SAMs. Yet the low-level tactics continued, in part because the SAM threat was viewed as unbeatable. As the USAFE director of operations and intelligence in 1973, General Creech was privy to the very latest intelligence concerning modern Soviet SAMs, and he had heard firsthand accounts from Israeli pilots about the futility of attempting to underfly the SA-6. His own experiences and thinking led him to the conclusion that to enable other air operations, air defenses had to be rolled back rather than avoided. Once the air defense threat was degraded, operations could adjust to higher, more survivable altitudes and take advantage of precision munitions. In this sense, air defense rollback became an integral part of Creech’s vision of air superiority. In the “TACAIR Rejuvenated” briefing given circa 1983, Creech’s slides articulated that “our basic concept of operations rests on the fact that we must penetrate enemy defenses. To do that, we will roll back those defenses using a combination of disruptive defense suppression and selective destruction with both standoff and overflight weapons.”
Creech’s description of the conference’s conclusion highlighted four instructive results:
1. We’re going to dramatically change our approach, simply because it’s wrong. We’re now going to make defense roll-back and taking the SAMs out our first order of business. No more trying to fly past SAM sites to get to other targets. That can’t be done. Taking them out can be done, and it will be easy if we go about it right. We need to get up out of the weeds as soon as possible to avoid the AAA, a far more formidable threat.
2. We’ll train at low altitude, sure, but we’ll also emphasize training at high altitude with the munitions that work there.
3. We’ll go on a full court press to develop and field the systems and munitions that fit our new tactics. Our fixation on low-altitude ingress, egress, and delivery and the systems and munitions that fit solely that approach is over.
4. We’ll also launch a major effort to educate tactical people throughout the Air Force on this major shift and the reasoning that lies behind it.
Creech’s most significant influence on airpower thought came from the Warfighter Conference, undoubtedly a seminal event in airpower history. Based on the work done at that conference in 1978, Creech and his fellow Airmen plotted a new course for the way the TAF would approach a sophisticated enemy with formidable air defenses.
Welch’s recollection of the conference provides a useful summary:
By the end of the conference, there was full agreement that low-level tactics might be necessary for a time but that we needed to get out of that mode as early as possible. Perhaps even more important for the subsequent evolution of both systems and tactics, there was a much greater appreciation for the potential of new tactical thinking, some further enabling defense suppression help, and the right munitions with precision guidance—all clearly within our technology capabilities.
Realistic Training Takes Root
The scope of Red Flag training expanded significantly during Creech’s tenure as the TAC commander. Reflecting Creech’s long-held opinion that the Air Force lacked a credible capability to fight at night, Red Flag exercises began to incorporate night operations at least twice per year shortly after Creech assumed command. During Creech’s command at TAC, Red Flag exercises grew from approximately 55 aircraft per exercise in 1977 to more than 250 by the time he relinquished command on 1 November 1984. Some exercises later grew to more than 400 aircraft. The exercises often included multinational participation—17 nations as active participants and 12 as observers by 1984. The realism of the threats on the Nellis ranges increased substantially. During Creech’s tenure, TAC spent more than $600 million on range improvement and instrumentation. This money bought, among other things, 11 acquisition radars, 33 AAA radars, and 42 SAM systems. Gen John L. Piotrowski, who served as Creech’s operations deputy and vice-commander before becoming the Ninth Air Force commander, recalled that Creech also instituted composite force training in which large packages of fighters trained with all the support assets they would need in wartime. He added that while Dixon and Suter had created Red Flag, Creech deserved credit for making each one more realistic than the previous and for upgrading the Fighter Weapons School from “a few cowboys and a few airplanes to a major enterprise. . . . It was a completely different world [than when I taught there in the 1960s]. General Creech professionalized it.”
By the summer of 1982, the tactics articulated at the Warfighter Conference and practiced at numerous Red Flags had been largely validated. In June 1982, the Israeli air force used the defense rollback strategy adopted by the USAF, decimated Syrian air defenses in the Bekàa Valley in a matter of 10 minutes, and destroyed 17 of 19 SA-6 missile sites and several SA-2 and SA-3 missile sites. The remaining sites were destroyed the following day. Meanwhile, 85 Syrian aircraft were destroyed in the air without a single Israeli loss. This stunning success served to reinforce the vision that emerged at the Warfighter Conference and had been practiced regularly at Red Flag exercises. By building on the successes of the Red and Blue Flag exercises, Creech began to expand the focus on realistic training into other areas of air warfare as well as many of the critical support functions across the TAF.
What do you want to make statistics from on the other hand?
Given that the context of that argument is the ‘modern battlefield’ and there haven’t been any conventional wars in the recent past, I think looking for statistical evidence is futile.
That being said – “steer clear of enemy missiles” ought to be a pretty intuitive point. And where the location of enemy air defences is unknown or unclear (eg. involving mobile or IR-guided units) – adopting a flight profile strips the pilot of situational awareness, should clearly be an avoidable option.
I do think that this discussion is in danger of mixing historical contexts.
If you want to discuss the contribution a low level optimised design could make before the widespread use of PGMs and stand off cruise missiles (which was the case for the RAF in GW1), then fine.
However, in discussing the F35, Rafale, TLAM-D, Stormshadow or any other post GW1 system or munition in the same breath as the above is a distortion of facts.
Err.. the TLAM-D was very much in service in 1991. IOC – 1986.
The shift away from low-level tactics for the USAF came in the wake of the Vietnam war and probably more importantly – the 1973 Yom Kippur war where Egyptian AD effectively blocked IAF strikes. SA-2s & SA-3s had the upper altitudes covered but when the IAF tried to go in low (as it did in ’67) it ran into SA-7 (Strela-2) equipped infantry, with the SAMs covered by AAA, forcing the jets to climb.. right back into the SAM envelop. Fast forward 9 years to the Bekaa Valley – entirely different outcome. In the USAF’s case – you had the F-117 (coming in roughly at the same time as the Tornado) while the F-15E was selected to replace the F-111.
Whilst it can be argued that the proliferation of stand off weaponry is proof that low level penetration is too costly for a manned fighter, the B2 design was modified to allow it to fly at low level. So, in the minds of 1980s planners even extreme stealth did not eliminate the need for that mission profile.
Sure. But that was the kind of just-in-case planning that equipped the F-22 with TVC. Also, keep in mind that the B-2 is VLO at all altitudes. Any low-level flights will taken place at night-time; minimal threat from optical systems with similar resistance to EM-guided SAMs while staying clear of low-frequency EW radar.
no, I say simply that most defenses are concentrated around important sites, like airfields. One can not cover a nation with a SAM on every second house (unless you’re Monaco, that is), so you obviously have to set your defenses with a certain path in mind, in order to have the best possible coverage, but it still can’t be perfect
Again, how is the ‘certain path’ determined in an environment with mobile AD systems & AAA? Or MANPADS, for that matter.
no, but again, I invite you to look at statistics that were put forward: Tornado combat losses occurred all around (“over” would be more exact) the target. The only one that wasn’t downed over a target was a crash that nobody can give the reason for (other pilots in that mission noticed a flash as it hit the ground in a low level turn, so: was the aircraft shot? or was it a pilot error? we’ll never know), and that was while operating over desert of Iraq, mostly flat terrain (meaning, they, normally, could be detected from relatively far away).
You want to make a generalization about low-level ingress/egress on the modern battlefield based on statistics from 1991 Iraq i.e. populated by mostly static defences?
Once more, is it the only way to do things? no. It’s definitely more comfortable by all means to fly high, see the whole battlefield below far away and drop your ordnance from safe distance and altitude, but it is one of the ways that can be used when it appears necessary, given the conditions encountered
If I understand it right, you’re saying that fighters can go in at low-level (QR-SAM/AAA/MANPAD threat apart) but instead of overflying the target – use standoff weaponry. However, most glide-bombs are designed to be deployed from medium altitude, and even rocket-boosted kits like the AASM have a range of only about 15 km at low altitude (and probably lower still for a nap-of-the-earth profile). You could opt for a pop-up attack but that would mean exposing the aircraft to enemy fire.
The obvious solution would to use an long-range weapon like the powered-JSOW or SCALP-EG or similar. But cost aside, the sheer range of those weapons renders the aircraft rather redundant. Instead of forcing the pilot to get down in the weeds, the missile could autonomously fly the same terrain-hugging route.
I’m not saying there’ll never be an opportunity to go low-level for an fighter but its utility is much like the utility of the gun. No harm in retaining it (like a sidearm for a grunt) but it would be unwise to do any mission planning that envisage its use.
not only Rafale, I simply wanted to point out the fact that the tactics still have their importance and that the most lethal part of a flight is the overflight of the target which is usually very heavily defended, something that stand off weapons are made to avoid
You’re assuming that only the target is defended i.e. the defences are static.
There is no way to account for unknown threats along the ingress/egress path. The horizon FoV limit in low-level flight means that they’ll be no advance warning and very limited reaction time. And then of course there’s the threat from enemy fighters.
You have to remember how all the discussion sprang forth: Vnomad called the Tornado Anachronistical, I replied that it entered service in 1979, so there were nothing of that in such times.
Discussion kept on, even if I tried to close it saying it could at maximum be conceded that it aged fast not that it aged quite fast, not that it was an anacrhronism but it kept on at the point to transfer the discussion on a dedicate thread, so we are still discussing.
The Tornado was dispatched into combat just over a decade after induction (and maybe 6-7 years after FOC). And as the interviews from NATO commanders from the war indicate – they found the attack profile it was designed for, too dangerous to actually employ. Few years later, it would be dispatched to the Balkans where it operated with a 10-15,000 ft min. altitude limit.
And that’s without going into the threat from enemy fighters. Modern terrain following radars can help you go lower but modern radars can filter out ground clutter even more effectively.
Let’s define modern please, we are talking about planes (both Tornado than teen fighters than mirages or Jaguar) of the Cold war era with no RCS at all, so the only way they ALL hadto reduce vulnerability to enemy radars was to fly low and fast.
No. That exchange with TooCool_12f was about the relevance of low-level flight in modern warfare. He probably had the Rafale in his mind (it supposedly compensates for the lack of stealth with low-level tactics & ECM).
Today, with more modern terrain following systems, you can go even lower and faster, and shoot from a safer distance your weapons… the days of low level penetration aren’t over yet…
first, you’d want to send in your SIGINT assets to map the AD network
You can only map the emitting elements of the static portion of the AD network. And that too only the outer edges. Anything that is radar-silent, or mobile, or optically/IR guided or based in depth will remain unseen.
Rafale, for example, which has been developed for with deep strike in mind (low level penetration when needed) also has with SPECTRA a built-in SIGINT suite (and another interesting function is that it can map the AD network, but also the ground precisely and feed the databases of its airforce with all that data). What’s more, when you speak of the horizon, it is on flat terrain, but as soon as you have hills (not to speak about mountains), you’ll fly in the valleys, making you unseen from radars or, at most, for very short glimpses which are insufficient to shoot at you.. same for MANPADS, if your shooter doesn’t see nor hear you coming, he’ll have very little chance to point his weapon on you, arm it and fire.
Those hills or valleys aren’t going to protect you from mobile air defences – AAA as well as QR-SAMs. With regard to the MANPADS, the shooter may not hear you coming but his tripwire of spotters/scouts strung out ahead will and they’ll radio in your vector.
An example of it was over Serbia, where most of the missions flown by the serbs went unnoticed (or at least unharmed) despite the AWACS coverage of the entire territory… as long as they stayed low, even the airborne radars had trouble spotting them, and even more directing interceptors on them (we won’t speak of SAMs as NATO had none there)
Serb ground attack aircraft flew just 20 odd missions acc. to public sources – hardly enough to draw any generalized conclusions from that. On the other hand, hard deck for the NATO jets was set at 15,000 ft (later eased to 10,000 ft) and much of the (mobile) Serb AD remained operational even towards the end.
About modern radars filtering ground clutter, yes, but it is useful mostly when you see them from above… for a ground-based radar, the problem is not so much that the aircraft is hard to detect because of the background, but rather that it is behind “the background”… put a hill or a mountain between the radar and the aircraft and the aircraft simply can’t be seen as radar waves can’t pass through the ground
Can’t remain behind the hill/mountain all the time. Its not a tunnel. If he can’t see you, you can’t see him either – which means you can’t plan a reliable evasive route. The next twist in the ridge-line may be where his radar starts pings off your jet. And the trouble is that the enemy fighter is sitting pretty at 25,000 ft surveying a wide swathe of ground, the options available to the infiltrating fighter may not be as extensive. It may be doable is some very specific cases – maybe allied fighters can lure away the enemy jets – but on the whole it remains an unnessarily dangerous business.
They did last time. Both China and the USSR went to war with the US over Korea. Russia in more of an advisory position but China proper attacked last time.
Maoist China came to the rescue of communist Korea with outside support from the Soviets.
Thanks to the Ukraine precedent, ( the US not respecting neutral, non aligned status of countries, as stipulated in Budapest Memorandum), China and Russia must defend NK at all costs. Because the US will try and make a colony of it at any chance. Then comes color revolutions and the missile shields ect
Even if that means condemning the North Korean people to another few decades under Kim-il-Sung’s dynasty.
Today, with more modern terrain following systems, you can go even lower and faster, and shoot from a safer distance your weapons… the days of low level penetration aren’t over yet…
That applies when you’re only faced with static defences.
If your operating environment includes mobile AD units & ManPADS, or if the AD threat hasn’t been mapped out – whole different situation. You could have the best ESM, EO & MAWS in the world and it would still only be able to warn you of an impending threat after you’ve entered engagement range; horizon is ~25 km at 100 ft and ~20 km at 50 ft (missile units for EM-based AD could be closer still).
And that’s without going into the threat from enemy fighters. Modern terrain following radars can help you go lower but modern radars can filter out ground clutter even more effectively.
thing is, when you look at these losses you have six combat losses:
two were at medium altitude, so it leaves only four at low level
No mention of medium altitude in that link. And SR-SAMs are very real threats at low level. More so than AAA.
Not one has been reported to be destroyed by enemy fire on its way to target area while being low
In general, the Iraqi defences were static allowing the attack jets the luxury to plan safe ingress/egress routes. Whole different situation when facing mobile air defences, to say nothing of threats in the air.
I don’t doubt that JP233 went the way of the Dodo because the world had changed by the early 90s, but as is pointed out in at least one of your sources and backed up in the article on JP233, in the 1980s (and GW1 weaponry all derives from 1970/80s planning) everyone (in some form) was going into day one of a war against the Soviets as low and as fast as they could.
True but I imagine the Soviet AD would have given at least as stiff an account of itself as the Iraqis did. Hard lessons learned in the Gulf would have been learned in Central Europe instead.
If you want to criticise the RAF aircraft and tactics of the time, then the fact that they only had one way to do runway denial (other than Operation Blackbuck) meant that JP233 missions werethe only show in town. They were not alone in that though.
I think the Buccaneers might have done a fair job of cratering those runways (even though, as I understand, their LG gear wasn’t the most modern around). In any event, if the Tornadoes were the only show in town, that was the a result of conscious (and yes, rational) planning decisions which, with hindsight, turned out to be mistakes. I don’t believe something like the TLAM-D or Apache along with better precision guidance was technologically out-of-bounds for the RAF/RN.
It is necessary to post the RAF view on whether their Tornado missions were a total waste of resources as you are suggesting.
Not at all. ‘Total waste’ would imply the missions were a complete failure. I’d say they were more an outcome of injudicious planning, that achieved their objectives but suffered avoidable losses.
An effect achievable through a combination of LGBs & TLAM-Ds. (The IrAF assets, if any, that managed to get airborne they could have been handled in the air without too much fuss.)
Its also worth noting is that just a decade after the Gulf War, the (widely-used) Durandal was replaced by the new Apache missile by the French.
…and also for the sake of accuracy, do you think it would be worth posting the RAF view, rather than a necessarily removed US version or the British Army view (no matter now eminent)?
Well USAF (F-111s & F-15Es) were right there in mix with the Tornadoes, especially in the early days. Their experiences are hardly ‘removed’.
And while de la Billiere might be an Army officer, he was being advised in the matter by Bill Wratten, and his concerns were shared by Patrick Hine, both of the RAF.
The Yankees will go home bombing Noko to hell but in kind they will be Nuke Soko and Japs …with millions of refugees entering China and Russia and even South Korea.
The US has 30,000+ military personnel in South Korea, 40,000+ in Japan with another 5,000 in Guam. Plus the 160,000 people of Guam who are still US citizens. That should address the argument about US egging on a war from a ‘safe’ distance.
With respect to the refugee argument – North Korea as a country is about as rural as they come. Bombing identifiable military targets is unlikely to cause a great deal of collateral damage. There will of course still be a sizeable refugee flow towards the south – for the simple reason that they are citizens of North Korea. The DMZ is the Korean equivalent of the Berlin wall, designed to keep the domestic population penned as much as it is to keep foreign forces at bay. The fall of the Berlin Wall led to an exodus to the West – that doesn’t mean that reunification was the wrong thing to do.
North korea is a artificially created crisis
Not for the North Korean people, it isn’t (though yes, Trump is a blowhard).
As for assets , Russia and China will not tolerate an attack from the US here. It would be a war with Russian and Chinese air forces and anti aircraft assest. It would be a gong show. Dog fights would break out. US tankers would be attacked ect.
Russia would engage in full scale war against the US, dogfights and all… to defend Kim Jong Un and Juche socialism?