True.. But I can’t help myself to have a bit of a malicious joy here.. LockMart have already politically twisted and spoiled so many “deals”, they truly deserve to get a drop of their own medicine..

I’d advise against rejoicing until they actually sign a contract. Among other hurdles, the RCAF is yet to weigh in. They put out/leak a statement saying they don’t need an interim fighter and would prefer to buy a single type post-competition in time for the Hornet retirement and it would make it damn hard for the Canadian govt to sneak in the SH on grounds of operational urgency.

That apart, its a pretty odd stand from you. I thought you’d have been all eager to finally see a ‘fair’ competition where the F-35 can publicly get its comeuppance, and in the process also prove you right. Little bit of malicious joy should pale in front of the opportunity for complete vindication.

And yet the Liberal govt (if the report is accurate) seems to be shying away from a competition, despite having spent years howling for just such a thing. Clearly something has changed, some realizations have set it having finally received the keys to power (and information).

Theories?

Let us look at some actual facts on development costings… I calculated these a couple of years ago for another forum but they are consistent still today.

I came up with roughly the same result.

$34 bn for the EF. $16 bn for the Rafale. And $10 bn for the Gripen (last one being a total guess). $60 bn for the F-35.

Again, how do you know Parrikar wasn’t part of the process based on what MOF said it could endorse? He went to the PM and said the previous process is broken. He says now it is upto you. IAF provides input or select officials are sounded out about minimum necessary in the short term to boost combat power. DAE et al are tapped along with MEA who would have been working with the French otherwise to see what would get the French to transfer tech to L&T from Areva for future nuclear plans.

Jaitley (FM), Modi (PM), Parrikar (DM) and MEA (Swaraj) plus delegates and officials from HAL, BARC, DAE, NPCIL etc sit together and devise a plan which PM takes to the French, with a range of options. Modi then sits with Jaitley and sees what can be afforded.

The problem with this is that these options would have had to have to come from the French side; Package type 1 – A units, B support, C offsets; Package type 2 – D units, E support, F offsets; and so on. The MoD, MoF & HAL would have assessed them, coordinated through the DAC and communicated it to the Cabinet through Parrikar.

In reality, it was played absolutely by the ear, where a commitment for two squadrons was made but nobody knew what the terms were or what it would cost ($5 bn is what was projected at the time). All that was left to be worked out later. The French assumed the GtG arrangement meant zero offsets, while the MoD assumed its MMRCA origins meant 50% offsets.

We started the process only in July last year. After Prime Minister’s statement in April, everything came to us. We asked them (French) for various options. We met them and finally one line was decided. – Parrikar

This is how GOI decision making is done.

Not Modi decides 36 planes are good.

GoI decision making would have required the MoD to be involved in the deal’s inception. And the MoD would not have offered an option wherein –

1) single vendor negotiations would be initiated despite there being at least two technically compliant entries
2) terms of the support package had not been identified (eg. no of bases required), source of weapon systems
3) a subsequent production contract for similar aircraft would be floated independently.

This was a political decision through and through.

All Parrikar has said is that he will get India the best possible deal. He has been working ten different things at one go because this is not sequential. He knows previous process was flawed (deliberate or otherwise loopholes in the non technical sides of the deal, financing etc). He wants that fixed. IAF is screaming at top of its lungs for MMRCA.

The IAF was screaming for the MMRCA. Right upto the point where the MMRCA was scrapped. Its been relatively quiet about the pace of the current deal, presumably since it realizes that two squadrons is all its getting for the near future, and that isn’t going to change the numbers situation significantly. (On the upside, its warmed up to the Tejas.)

As far as Parrikar is concerned, the best possible deal would have involved first deciding what exactly they want (in terms of numbers, weapons, warranty, support & offsets), and then letting Dassault & BAE/Airbus (and possibly LM) put in their best offers before signing a contract with the preferred vendor (not necessarily the lower bidder either). Also perhaps factoring in offers of a local assembly line (if one or more of them were offering it).

Or Parrikar went to Modi and said, this is the problem, here are the range of options and their price which I have worked out with MOD finance and Finance Ministry since per the larger discussion we need to give the French something for the Areva deal since NPCIL/DAE/BARC etc are keen on it & French Govt won’t intercede unless they get something else overall.

I don’t see why a nuclear company that’s been neck deep in debt, teetering on the brink of bankruptcy (until bailed out by the French govt) would be foolish enough to put up unreasonable conditions for a prospective customer, or why the customer would countenance such antics.

MOD has a range of options on its table. While not ideal, the IAF would certainly be boosted by 2-3 squadrons of Rafale with weapons and systems compability with the Mirage. We can buy more over time.

This the crux of the issue. Deliveries for the Rafale are to take place between 2019 and 2024 (6/yr deliveries after a standard 3 year lead time). At that point, the French production line would be shutting down, while on the domestic front they’d have the option of the PAK FA, Tejas Mk2 as well as a locally produced/assembled western fighter jet.

With a proactive attitude, a third squadron is doable but any more are highly unlikely. Which is basically a repeat of the Mirage saga.

Unless of course, Dassault secures the mooted local production deal – though given the aircraft’s cost and that of creating a brand new assembly line (20 years after the one at Merignac was established), that doesn’t seem financially feasible.

Now, rationalization is going on, decisions are being taken. This means some hard choices. IAF is taking LCA, that & a boost in Su-30 serviceability adds far more immediate punch than the MMRCA, hence only 36 as a first buy is still doable. Why the Rafale only though? That was all the IAF. But now Parrikar is seeing other options too & again, that means Modi has given him that autonomy.

The defence minister can and should overrule the IAF where its supporting a myopic plan (Tejas being an apt example). However, while the IAF was clearly determined to push the erstwhile MMRCA deal through, I don’t really believe the IAF has tunnel-vision where the Rafale is concerned. Doesn’t gel with the IAF chief’s public statements last year – “I may wish to have Rafale. But there are equally good aircraft. So if the deal is good and the government decides we need to have six of similar squadron…. There are alternatives. I cannot say I only want Rafale.“

Never claimed that.

Okay. What about the claim that there is nothing in the history of Indian acquisitions to suggest that FMS deal could go faster? In that respect, what is your explanation with respect to the speed of the P-8 acquisition?

Yes, and there is no difference between US and any other supplier country in this regard. Indians will not magically become happy about the cost, technology transfer and whatnot just because it’s an US FMS sale.

The core difference is in cost competitiveness, where low volume manufacturing in Europe loses out (Airbus aside). Europe had a market for some 1,200 odd fighter aircraft, which they split between three manufacturers while duplicating large chunks of the development effort. The economic consequences are quite predicable.

Decision taken by GOI are based on feedback from MOD , IAF and MOF ..it is not a personal decision a PM makes based on his whims are fancies.

The ‘feedback’ from the MoD comes via the Defence Acquisition Council which wasn’t involved in this case. And if a decision is made by the PM (and this decision was made by the PM), it doesn’t mean it was based on ‘whims and fancies’ instead of his own well considered (albeit mistaken) judgement.

Obviously the MOD and IAF have been taken into confidence wrt to Rafale deal and decision to procure 36 offshelf based on the merits.

They may well have been informed of the decision before it was taken. The ‘merits’ however were decided in the PMO. And the entirety of details – cost, offsets, customizations, weapons was left over for the MoD to manage afterwards.

The approval or rejection of Rafale is also a Cabinet decision after weighing all pro and cons from negotiation that CCSA will finally take when it comes for approval , IT wont be something Modi will take based on his own personal liking or disliking , it would be collective decision of cabinet both CCSA and CCPA.

The cabinet wasn’t involved in making the decision either. It’ll be placed in front of the CCS only after the IGA is signed. (No such thing as the CCSA. And it has nothing to do with the CCPA.)

I’m sorry, that is completely absurd argument. M777 deal was delayed by EXACT SAME REASON Rafale deal is – Indians were unhappy about the cost.

Yes and and until recently had planned to scrap it altogether.

You’re simply repeating my argument. The deal was NOT tied up in bureaucratic red tape.

As for the helicopter deal, it was delayed largely because of Indian bureaucracy – Boeing set like 10 deadlines for the Indians, who kept missing them time after time. No FMS system is going to help if other side can’t get its act together. It was pretty much same thing with Scorpene deal with the French.

The Boeing deal didn’t come through the FMS process. Nor did the Scorpene.

If they are clear about an acquisition, it is entirely possible for them to make a quick purchase through the FMS procedure – P-8, C-17, C-130.

But that is exactly the point. It took them like 7 years to arrive to that M777 deal. Indians were unhappy with rather outrageous cost of the howitzers (4 million apiece – you can get a self-propelled howitzer from Europe for that price) and spent years to haggle price down in one way or another. Sound familiar?

The M777 ran out of USMC orders a long time ago, so it was a mistake to pursue it through the FMS channel in the first place. And the current deal is on (very good) commercial terms.

Entirely different situation when it comes to fighter aircraft.

Also if you’re comparing the M777 to a SPG, you haven’t understood its purpose. Just FYI, there are already several howitzer acquisitions in pipeline –

– Dhanush 155/45
– ATAGS 155/52 (under development)
– K-9 Vajra 155/52 Tracked SPG
– Nexter/Elbit entry for Wheeled SPG (decision pending)

None of which has anything to do with the M777.