Anyhow, like you mentioned earlier. The situation is sketchy at the moment, and I would hate to be basing my arguments on one or two articles. We know that China is pursuing a modernization of its Su-27 fleet, but whether that will be through indigenous methods or Russian upgrade kits is still hazy.

What is your proof that it is not true? I would require a direct link saying that 100 upgrade kits have not been delivered- failure to mention is not the same thing as not occurring.

Pinkov is too vague in his descriptions of ‘sources from China.’ Unless the Technocomplex spokesperson is lying to Hewson (and why would he do that?), I have more reason to believe Hewson who it would appear physically met with said representative.

Thank you, my typing error re: Piotr’s name.

Remember Richard Fisher’s report on MAKS 2003? He quoted a Sukhoi official as saying it would take China 10 years to indigenize the J-11; notice, that the official is not saying 10 additional years from now (2003), but rather ~10 years total.

Contrast this with this from a 2003 JDW report- “Russian industry sources have also disclosed that China’s engine makers are close to mastering the complex skills needed to build the Su-27’s AL-31 powerplant – something that most observers had thought would be held under tight Russian control. If this proves to be the case, then China will have used the Su-27SK/J-11 project to establish a total systems capability for advanced combat aircraft in little more than 10 years.”

Perhaps he meant 10 years from the 1995-96 contract to sign the Su-27 coproduction agreement.

The upgrades can’t be for the Su-30s, because traditionally China has purchased all the upgrades up front on the MKKs, and there aren’t even 100 MKKs that need upgrading. Besides, the Su-27SM upgrades were “developed as part of China’s Su-30MKK two-seat multirole fighter project”. (JDW: 6/11/03, Piotr Butkowski) It wouldn’t make sense to upgrade a plane with technology taken from the plane itself.

Secondly, the UBKs don’t need the upgrades- the frontline fighters do, and there aren’t even 100 available for upgrading.

So what does that leave? The vast quantities of Su-27s and J-11s.

Moreover, Hewson is a very senior editor. I think it’s more likely that Izvestia is not acquainted with the full facts.