RE: Would Qantas Consider Leaving OneWorld?
I totally agree with the arguments that in today’s world, anything is possible in regard to airline alliances. With UA in Chapter 11 and AA near to it, it is obvious that other partners would be rethinking where their best interest may be served.
However, I think the British Airways/Qantas link up is a paramount factor to their existence in Oneworld together. Even though there were rumours of BA selling its 17% stake in QF, possibly to SIA, the denial by Rod Eddington and the fact I cannot see BA selling something off that is making money for them, is for me a major factor why QF would not choose to leave Oneworld. Moreover, there are rumours today that QF may take a stake in AA.
Also a critical joint services agreement between QF and BA is due for renewal in June. If regulatory authorities refuse to sanction it one of the primary reasons for Qantas’s membership in Oneworld would be removed. This is the likely moment QF could jump alliances, but rumours at the moment suggest QF will re-sign the JSA.
I think the likelihood is that instead of QF leaving Oneworld it would be NZ leaving Star, thus this withdrawal would leave Star with a rather weak position in the Oceanic regions and Oneworld with the dominance.
I think a simple co-existence between QF ands NZ is highly unlikely, after all can you really see Qantas wanting to feed its traffic on to competitors? NZ’s membership of OneWorld also seems rather inevitable and a logical step since QF is settled in Oneworld so their would be heavy pressure from AA and BA, QF’s closest partners, to push NZ towards a new alliance. There would probably be more sense in QF and NZ together; the alliance would also benefit much more. Air New Zealand might get more exposure in Oneworld due to the fact that there are fewer carriers than there are in Star, plus a very strong position across the Pacific and Oceanic regions.
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