dark light

hopsalot

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 15 posts - 1,561 through 1,575 (of 2,738 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216440
    hopsalot
    Participant

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Marine Corps said on Wednesday it is sticking to a July 2015 target to declare an initial squadron of 10 new Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets ready for combat use, but said it would not be devastated if the date slipped to August.

    “It’s too soon to flinch,” outgoing Marine Corps Commandant General James Amos said in an interview at his Pentagon office, when asked if the Marines would miss their target date for declaring an initial operational capability (IOC).

    “It’s a tight timeline, but I think it’s doable,” he said. “But I’m a realist. If it’s August, it’s August. … There is some risk in a mid-summer IOC but we’ve known that all along.”

    The Marine Corps has set July 2015 as the date by which it wants to be able to use the stealthy new jets in combat, followed by the Air Force in 2016 and the Navy in 2018 or 2019.

    https://in.news.yahoo.com/top-u-marine-says-f-35s-july-due-000039321–finance.html

    Between this and the engine fix its been a rough week for the aviation critic industry…

    I wonder if they realize the plane’s center of gravity is all wrong.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216687
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Before anyone read it, please notice that you made a slight error here. The F1 were interim planes build for the Fr navy that was urgently in need at the time of a new plane capable to replace the Crusader they were still flying*. It has always been planed to rebuilt those plane (I am not sure – maybe Hallow would confirm that point)

    Basically those 10 planes were devoid of any real sophistication like you see today. At the beginning they didn’t have any serious A2G capabilities. This last upgrade is in fact a rebuild to standards with extensive structural modification.

    Don’t forget that Dassault at the time didn’t took the time to setup a real production line like you see with the 35 or even the Typhoon (as Sintra pointed out). See them more like hand-crafted products. The standards were high (given the experience of the team) but the plane were basically built in a hangar in small lots.

    So to stay focused on your slight mishap, the only critics that can be done on that story is that the fr Navy did pay 1.5 times for the same plane. But 30M$ is cheap if you look at the new cap that the upgrade will bring.

    If you had to finger point something in the Raf program this was hardly the right thing (there are some negative points obviously that are becoming increasingly concerning as the time goes**).

    *The Fr navy shld have bought the F18C and Dassault would probably have now the privilege to be the only one to propose the old 18 airframe with new avionics on the market and structural upgrade. A failure by any means.
    ** according to the obvious fact that the plane still lacks customers

    You missed the point entirely. That wasn’t an attack on the Rafale program. (which certainly has had its share of issues) It was a simple example of the costs involved in performing an extensive upgrade to a modern jet. The point is that this stuff isn’t cheap.

    (The cost of upgrading these ten Rafales is essentially the Rafale program equivalent to the F-35’s much discussed concurrency costs or the issues associated with the early production Typhoons. )

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216694
    hopsalot
    Participant
    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216697
    hopsalot
    Participant

    IIRC the SK Typhoon bid was also over budget. That combined with the 40 F-35s for LESS than the budget means that the Typhoon bid was NOT 60 for the price of 40 F-35s.

    It also included the cost of a brand new satellite…

    (Reuters) – Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) said it will buy a European-built military communications satellite for South Korea as part of a $7 billion deal to supply Seoul with 40 F-35 fighter jets, in what industry observers call among the most unusual “offset” agreements ever to accompany a major arms sale.

    Lockheed, which builds its own satellites, declined to detail the cost of the new satellite or name its manufacturer, but said the spacecraft would provide a “state-of-the-art” system that met South Korea’s military requirements.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/26/us-lockheed-fighter-southkorea-idUSKCN0HL2FS20140926

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216700
    hopsalot
    Participant

    says who ? You ? How do you know? Who told you that this is or would have been the case? You are implying that the only way forward was a plane with similar costs to the F-35? Then you are being contradicted by the LM people who a few years back had completely different ideas of the cost and performance of the same plane you are defending now.

    How can you quantify the cost of making a plane which would have fulfilled the F-16 role at a similar price point without ever having been part of such a procedure? I am not saying I can, but surely you cannot either. Such a competition never materialised so no one knows. Filling the same shoes doesn’t mean it would have to be like the F-16 physically or even come from the same lineage. It could have been a completely different design, meeting the same requirements. The F-16 and the MiG-29 came about trying to meet pretty much the same requirements, they don’t look alike do they?

    The fundamental problem you seem to have is that you believe a F-16 replacement could be created and produced for substantially less than an F-35. What you are forgetting is that the latest models of the F-16 are radically different aircraft from the original ones, with radically higher prices. You could buy an F-16 Block 60 (or the hypothetical block 70 that has been kicked around some) but the problem is that such an aircraft is already likely easily busting through $50 million a copy… and that is for an upgraded version of an aircraft that has been in production for 30 years. A clean slate design would require many billions of R&D just to get off the ground. (literally and figuratively) These R&D costs would have to be amortized over the fleet of the new aircraft.

    Think about the original F-16s… daylight only… sidewinders, dumb bombs, rockets and a cannon.

    Contrast that to a hypothetical fully modernized F-16:

    New cockpit with multi-function displays
    Helmet mounted display/sight
    Modern RWR
    Modern internal jammer/towed decoy
    AESA radar
    IRST
    Missile warning system
    Datalink (preferably a next generation datalink, MADL or similar)
    All new computer (required for above)
    All new software (required for above)
    All new internal networking, power supply, cooling (required for above)
    Conformal fuel tanks
    Uprated engine
    RCS reductions
    Integration of at least one modern WVR missile
    Integration of at least one modern BVR missile
    Integration of a modern targeting pod
    Integration of a whole list of air to surface weapons

    What would it cost to develop such an aircraft? The F-16 Block 60 R&D reportedly cost ~$3billion back in 1998, and that didn’t include everything above… and remember we are talking about an upgrade program, not even a clean slate design. Figure no less than $5-6 billion to develop the avionics for a fully outfitted 4.5 generation fighter.

    In the 1990s, the UAE bought 80 F-16 E/F fighters with distinctive conformal fuel tanks, under a $7.3 billion foreign military sales (FMS) contract, of which a reported $3 billion went to co-develop the Block 60 Desert Falcon, widely viewed as the most capable of the F-16s worldwide.

    http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110706/DEFSECT01/107060305/UAE-May-Buy-More-F-16s

    Remember, this isn’t the cost of the planes, or even the cost of developing the planes… this is the price of developing the upgrades alone. If you managed a production run of a few hundred jets you could expect the R&D cost per jet alone to hit $10-20million.

    How much do modern avionics cost once developed?

    For that we can look to France, which has just finished upgrading the first of the Rafale F1s to the F3 standard. This upgrade swaps out essentially all of the Rafale’s avionics for new equipment, but does not include a variety of the features above, including an AESA radar, IRST, towed decoy, etc.

    What is France paying to upgrade 10 Rafale F1s? Try 240 million Euros. (~$300million)

    $30 million per plane to bring existing airframes up to the current standard.

    The cost of modernising the 10 aircraft is approximately EUR240 million (USD306 million), according to the DGA, with the programme begun in April 2012. The first aircraft (tail number M10) was delivered to the DGA at Dassault’s Merignac production plant on 3 October, the company stated.

    http://www.janes.com/article/44260/french-navy-receives-first-upgraded-rafale-f3

    You realize we aren’t even talking about developing a new airframe yet, right? Nor do either of the two upgrades above include everything on the wishlist.

    The bottom line is that modern fighters are awfully expensive. Nobody anywhere is going to develop a “new F-16” with the features people want that will be more than incrementally cheaper than the F-35.

    The Gripen NG is the closest anyone has come up with and that hasn’t flown yet and won’t be operational until the 2020+ timeframe. (First delivery scheduled for 2018…likely with limited capabilities initially…) So there you will be in the year 2020 with a brand new 4th generation fighter that will likely cost very nearly the same as an F-35 in the same timeframe. (Brazil is buying 36 for $4.5billion.)

    The hypothetical 5th generation F-16-class aircraft that would cost half what an F-35 does simply isn’t possible.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2216961
    hopsalot
    Participant

    My words, exactly. The mentioned capabilities, even if available, will have become some kind of burden. Imagine a country which has $2bil to spend on a decent helicopter force covering all roles, ASW, CSAR/SAR, CAS, down to simple hauling troops and cargo. The chief of staff decides to go for the best – 28x AW101 Merlin in full ASW config, each rated at $71mil.

    What will be the outcome? For ASW the force will be utterly excessive, CSAR/SAR roles will be covered adequately, CAS will be ineffective and simple hauling will suffer greatly. The overly complex helicopters will spend much time in hangars, eating up budget that could be better spent for other acquisitions while any kind of flood or other nature disaster will result in relief ops completely stalled due to only few helos available for trivial tasks like transporting two tons of rice to a nearby camp.

    Utter nonsense, you say. You better buy 4-5 Merlin HM1 to cover ASW role, 7-8 HC3s to cover ASW/CSAR/SAR and use the rest of the funds to buy ~60 Mi-171s and 30 EC135s to cover the rest. Unfortunately, the F-35 leaves you with no similar option, there is nothing cheaper which you could use when you have subscribed to US-made hardware (unless the F-16s stays updated and in production for another three decades).

    They will become exactly what F-35 fans accuse Gripen users of being – token forces, with numbers barely adequate to defend the country’s airspace. Future Danish or Belgian F-35s will probably be perfectly able to interlink with USAF force multipliers for remote weapon launches, unfortunately, whenever some joint operation in a sandbox is required, this excellent capability will be superfluous as they will have to stay at home tasked with homeland defense.

    If somebody wants a daylight only, visual range only fighter armed only with dumb bombs, rockets, its cannon, and some old AIM-9Ls then I am sure there are a number of manufacturers that could provide that at an affordable price. Shoot, the F-16 line is still open and the KAI F/A-50 would also come close to the mark…. just take all the modern avionics out and make it cheap cheap cheap.

    Of course that isn’t what anyone seems to want. They all want something far more capable… and guess what… that costs money.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217133
    hopsalot
    Participant

    IMO, it can’t, at least not effectively. I have explained my reasons in the previous response (#1361)

    Yes, but you were of course wrong. :very_drunk:

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]223978[/ATTACH]

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217134
    hopsalot
    Participant

    You got to compare whole force, not 1 vs 1 aircraft. Take an example of 24 F-35s replacing ~90 odd F-16s. That means three of four wings disbanded, number of active pilots reduced to ~30, active airbases reduced to one.. now consider 20% attrition, ca 70% readiness, say six aircraft reserved for QRA and you get.. seven active F-35s which you can really use for combat operations.

    Now take 48-52 less capable aircraft costing roughly the same to procure and to operate (Gripen?). Using the same calculation gets you to 20-24 active Gripens at any given time – a serious force to depend upon, IMHO.

    The Gripen will likely be cheaper to buy and operate than an F-35, but not nearly cheap enough that you could buy and operate twice as many of them.

    I really don’t know why kiddies around here continue to throw out numbers like the above. Even if at the most basic level a Gripen cost 50% to fuel for an hour… that wouldn’t account for the additional pilots (and their training), maintenance, facilities, command/management, etc, that doubling the fleet size would require.

    That is the fundamental problem the Gripen faces… it is probably the cheapest passably modern fighter to buy and operate today, but it is also one of the least capable. The only states that have purchased (or more often, leased) Gripens are operating within tiny budgets and want only a token force of fighters.

    Buyers with resources tend to go for higher-end aircraft with greater capabilities. The Gripen NG is trying to move the basic Gripen design into a higher performance bracket, but costs will certainly rise. Higher empty weight, greater installed thrust, new more sophisticated avionics… all of these things will lead to higher procurement and operating costs.

    This doesn’t even get into the issues associated with operating an sustaining a tiny fleet of fighters over their lifetime. To-date only roughly 100 Gripen NGs have been ordered. Over the next 30+ years every upgrade, every software update, every new weapon integration, every structural fix, every accident investigation, every spare part that needs to be returned to production, etc, will be the responsibility of two small poorly funded forces.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217197
    hopsalot
    Participant

    So after 5 pages of being wrong you’re now changing the argument? As for ‘dimwit fans’, who was it that thought two 426 gal tanks would quadruple the drag of a 50,000lb fighter again, and argued the point for 2-3 pages, bringing up all manner of garbage about eye-balled CoG being the cause of this amazing drag increase?

    That about sums things up.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217304
    hopsalot
    Participant

    You are correct that stealth requires internal weapons (or some form of conformal carriage, at a different level). This involves a sacrifice of performance at a given size and cost level. Not hard to understand except for dimwit fans.

    So if we are talking about the best aerodynamic approach absent consideration of actual combat effectiveness then the obvious solution would be to go without weapons at all, except maybe a gun… podded naturally.

    Of course if you want something longer-ranged than a good old gun that would involve sacrifice of performance at a given size and cost level. Not hard to understand except for dimwit fans…

    When you see the Russians stop building Su-35s and Su-34s, and the Chinese shut down J-10s and J-11s, give me a call.

    What do three Su-27 derivatives and a Lavi derivative have to do with clean-slate fighter designs that have emerged in the last 20 years?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217324
    hopsalot
    Participant

    And the above, kiddies, is why we can even argue about the ability of an F-16 to haul as much/as far as a far larger F-35. Not to mention a lower-OEW aircraft that has a practical six-AAM, six x 750lb-guided bomb loadout. Show me that on an F-35 and we’ll talk.

    Internal weapons, by the way, are a loser for a fighter-size airplane. At best it’s like moving house and having only one size of box to carry your books, clothes and fishing poles. Internal AAMs without folding fins are particularly bad – conformal/semi-conformal is better from all efficiency viewpoints, particularly considering the heavyweight ejection mechanisms required.

    So let me get this straight. You have figured out that internal weapons are a “loser for a fighter-size airplane.”

    Which might lead a more self aware person to wonder how they reached a conclusion 100% at odds with the design teams that created the J-20, J-31, PAK-FA, F-35, F-22, YF-23, X-32… that is to say essentially every clean-slate design to emerge in the last 20ish years. (yes, I am aware that the F-22 and YF-23 emerged earlier.)

    You have no business using the word “kiddie.”

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217448
    hopsalot
    Participant

    I think your thinking is flawed here. Most modern fighters have a CoP ahead of the CoG, so that in itself will be balancing out any fat kid on the nose and the tail is usually used to counter the moment caused by that forward CoP. The variation in drag over internal fuel use will be relatively small and there’s absolutely no chance in hell that two 426 gal drop tanks can quadruple fuel consumption.

    His “thinking” (actually wishful thinking that the F-35 would have some kind of crippling deficiency) is most certainly “flawed.” All of this theorizing is just an elaborate way to try to find a way out of his original, false, assertion.

    The drop tanks are mounted on the wings… which are near the center of gravity…they will certainly shift the F-35’s center of gravity somewhat, but since they are near the center of gravity to start with they aren’t going to have that huge an impact.

    There is absolutely no chance carrying tanks would quadruple fuel consumption. The F-35 in the Norwegian materials is retaining the tanks through the entire mission, which was always the reasonable assumption because nobody is going to jettison tanks on a peacetime surveillance mission.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217627
    hopsalot
    Participant

    First, we know that the aircraft will burn more fuel in the first 110 nm than the average specific range for the mission.

    Second, there is no reason for the relationship between the first 110 nm and the second or third 110 nm &c to be linear.

    True, the first 110 would be the least efficient with fuel efficiency increasing steadily during the course of the flight… but that doesn’t come close to explaining the four fold difference in fuel consumption we are talking about in your theory.

    (and those first 110 miles have to be flown both with and without tanks… meaning in actuality to observe a 55NM increase in radius the drop tanks would empty before 110NM had been covered, and the fuel efficiency indicated in my crude calculations above would end up being optimistic… this line of reasoning does not help you.)

    And there is no “theory” here – it’s a question of explaining the numbers as given by the manufacturer. Hanging on to the empty tanks for the balance of a medium-altitude mission would make some difference, but not enough to explain the tiny range increase for c. 20 per cent fuel.


    theory
    [thee-uh-ree, theer-ee]

    noun, plural theories.

    1.a coherent group of tested general propositions, commonly regarded as correct, that can be used as principles of explanation and prediction for a class of phenomena: Einstein’s theory of relativity.
    Synonyms: principle, law, doctrine.

    2. a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural and subject to experimentation, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.

    Your theory, and that is exactly what it is, is that the F-35 has some sort of crippling balance/aerodynamic issue so severe that adding external tanks wrecks its efficiency so badly that they add essentially nothing even if they are jettisoned when empty.

    The alternative is to assume that the profile included in the marketing material assumed the tanks stayed on, which is of course exactly what would happen in real world operations.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217640
    hopsalot
    Participant

    In fact, the clean and fully fuelled F-35A/C is nose-heavy and carries a lot of trim drag.

    Source? :rolleyes:

    Adding tanks makes the nose-heaviness worse. What the Norway data is telling us is that when you put the tanks on, the aircraft becomes both heavier and less aerodynamically efficient (tank drag, trim drag, wing at high loading = even more energetic vortex loss at the tips). This could also result in a lower initial cruise altitude (less efficient again) and there could be other factors (eg greater weight mandates more afterburner time).

    It’s really simple: Stealth costs money and results in performance trades. Is it worth it? The answer is mission-dependent and, of course, dependent on the threat.

    What this discussion is “telling us” is that you have no clue what you are talking about. You really think that if the F-35 were dropping those tanks when empty the increase in radius would be only 55 NM? Lets do some quick back of the envelope math.

    Radius with 18,000lbs of fuel 673NM. (1346 NM round trip) 18,000/1346 = 13 lbs/NM flown

    Radius increase on drop tank fuel, 55NM. (110NM increase round trip) Fuel in drop tanks, 852 gallons. (852 * 6.7 = 5708 lbs of fuel)

    5708 /110 = 52 lbs/NM

    Essentially your theory calls for the F-35 to burn literally four times as much fuel per NM traveled for the first 110NM of the mission, before the tanks are jettisoned.

    Stop and think, seriously. Your theory requires two ~430gallon tanks to make a 50,000+lb aircraft consume four times as much fuel per mile traveled.

    You are desperately searching for a way to make the F-35 sound bad, and so instead of accepting the obvious answer (that the tanks stay on), you are inventing idiotic theories about the F-35 having some terrible aerodynamic issue…. and afterburner time? On a surveillance mission? :stupid:

    Besides, if your theory had any merit there would be little point in the Israelis pursuing 600 gallon tanks. If ~430 gallon tanks wrecked the F-35’s aerodynamics so badly imagine what a couple 600 gallon tanks would do. (or for that matter a few cruise missiles) Assuming your theory had merit, and that somehow the problem became no worse with larger tanks… then the increase in combat radius would go from 55NM to 77NM. :very_drunk:

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2217643
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Nowhere does the document mention retaining the tanks, and aside from guesses and wishful thinking, does anyone have any grounds for calculating that penalty? By the way, the reason for deferring tanks from the Block 3 F-35A/C was that the benefit was small.

    The document also doesn’t say the plane is flying right side up. Perhaps the whole flight is being done inverted!

    Absent details, reasonable assumptions must be made. Nobody is going to jettison tanks on a peacetime surveillance mission, which also explains the “mystery” of why the range increase is relatively small.

    As for the range increase being small… I don’t doubt that it is, relative to the F-35’s range on internal fuel. Given that it already handily out-ranges the aircraft it is replacing there is no urgent need to introduce drop tanks.

    In the case of the one customer with an obvious requirement, they are developing their own large-capacity tanks.

    Lockheed Martin, the F-35 manufacturer, and Israeli Elbit Systems’ Cyclone subsidiary are in advanced negotiations on developing an external fuel tank to be used by all Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) customers to extend the range of the aircraft. The two companies are working on designing a 600-gal. external fuel tank, which could be carried in the non-stealth part of a mission, so after disposing the tank, the attachment pylon could be stored in an internal compartment, restoring full-stealth capability.

    http://aviationweek.com/aviation-week-space-technology/2014-07-14

    The mission profile is entirely irrelevant because we’re talking about the delta in range from the tanks, on the same profile. Also, note that the offensive load is only 2000 lb.

    The mission profile is never irrelevant. Try to stay with me here… drag varies with speed, altitude, and other factors. You can’t assume that drop tanks simply add a set distance or percentage of range. :stupid:

Viewing 15 posts - 1,561 through 1,575 (of 2,738 total)