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hopsalot

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,921 through 1,935 (of 2,738 total)
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  • in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2259888
    hopsalot
    Participant

    I have examined my own motivations long ago. I have even explained them before, even to you.

    Your sympathy or antipathy towards Rafale, Gripen, or Typhoon is much less personal than mine towards the F-35 for an obvious reason. Your country is not getting any of those. You will not be forced to pay an aircraft that delivers less than promised for twice the price and which your country arguably does not need.

    I actually wouldn’t mind seeing us pick up a few Gripens for use as aggressors and perhaps air policing.

    You are not getting “well meant advice” from F-35 supporters who know exactly what your country’s best choice would be, even if they arguably don’t have slightest idea of which country you come from.

    You are Norwegian.

    I have stated very clearly that I view the F-35 strictly from the point of view of an export customer. I don’t care if it fits USAF doctrine or if it can do the USAF job right under the cover of F-22s and force multipliers. I have good reasons to believe that this aircraft is the worst choice we can make and that there are better alternatives from technical or economical standpoint.

    Worst choice huh? I am going to be frank here, you don’t know what you are talking about. You are right that the F-35 offers more than you need for simple air policing and arctic patrols, but your leadership values its role in NATO and recognizes that in the event of an actual conflict it wouldn’t matter which aircraft they operated without NATO support. There are also substantial benefits and efficiencies that will come with participation in a much larger and longer running program than any of the Eurocanards can offer.

    And even worse, I have good reasons to believe that most politicians in charge are well aware of this but have been bought off by LMA to push this unnecessary purchase to its final fruition. And if you think that I am somehow obliged to provide proofs, evidence, links or other data undermining this stance of mine to you or anyone else, then you’re wrong. You can’t know what data I have access to and I can easily form my own opinion even without your or anyone else’s consent.

    “Good reason” … let me guess, some random guy told you so? As for being obliged to provide proof, only if you want to be taken seriously. You can hardly expect to make such accusations without even a bit of evidence, nor can you claim access to “data” when you have demonstrated over and over again that you don’t even understand the basics such as the difference between a unit price and that of a total contract including ancillary equipment, training, support, etc.

    The article Sweetman has written was harsh but otherwise right up to the point. He has described very exactly what could be observed in Korea. I am quite sure that he knows much more than what he could put on paper simply because much of his data comes from suspect sources which might have direct access to the procurement system but have refused to be named under any circumstance.

    You give him more credit than he claimed himself as he didn’t cite any sort, anonymous or otherwise. There are real ethical problems with the frequent(and seemingly increasing) use of anonymous sources by journalists but that really isn’t the question here since he claimed no source at all to support his accusations.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2259892
    hopsalot
    Participant

    I am not exactly sure what else do you expect. When it comes to dark topics like bribery, the sources will most likely be labeled as “suspect” with the exception of those cases which when the companies providing commission payments got caught. In case of LMA it would be several cases of C-130s for Chad, C-130s for egypt, L-1011 for Japan, F-104 for Japan, suspect bribery with F-104G for Germany and the already mentioned buying off classified info from ROKAF ex Chief of Staff. Is that little or quite much? Hard to say but cases like that most likely form only a tip of a huge iceberg.

    If you are trying to convince me that bribery exists, then you can save the effort. I have already said as much. You also need not resort to obviously biased sources for a reasonable discussion of bribery as many have made it their purpose to study bribery.

    The problem comes in when you rely on the specter of bribery to dismiss anything and everything you wish were not so.

    There is likely more bribery than is discovered, but that is not to say that every deal everywhere is riddled with bribery.

    Just today I have had a discussion with a Greek interpreneur who has mentioned that their defense minister has accepted commissions from HAF F-16 purchases valued up to 10% of overall contract value. Again, these were not even labeled as bribes, but declared as official commissions. Greeks have obviously not defined a term “conflict of interests” as of yet.

    So? I have encountered more than a few people that have been happy to relay implausible stories to me over the years.

    The most recent Peace Xenia deal had a value of about $2 billion. Do you really think the Greek Defense Minister was given a $200 million “commission?”

    Do you realize that that deal was done through the US FMS program, which has significant protections in place against bribery, do you not? I think hiding a $200 million payoff in a FMS contract would require no small effort… but hey, some guy told you otherwise so I guess it must be true.

    Anyway, I wonder what exactly would persuade a man like yourself that LockMart and other companies bribes and buy off people in charge whenever possible? You cannot seriously expect their own official commitment to this topic. Those “suspect” sources will often be all we got.

    In Western Europe bribery is most certainly the exception to the rule. That isn’t to say that it doesn’t ever happen, but it is absolutely not a standard business practice.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2259922
    hopsalot
    Participant

    It is not the higher production rate what drives down cost, it is the competition.

    No, it is both production (total) and rate that drive down costs. This is fundamental, consult Wikipedia.

    Competition will also act to drive down costs but that is a separate discussion.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2260015
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Especially in this case you are completely right. I resort to “suspect” sources because they are the only ones who at least remotely touch the truth. Do you expect official press release from Lockheed admitting to corruption and bribery? Don’t be ridiculous..

    Ah yes, “suspect” sources are the only ones that confirm your “truth.” Seems like you might take that as a hint huh?

    What would you say to someone that only trusted flaky “alternative” news sites because they were the only ones that confirmed this person’s flaky beliefs?

    We agree the bribery exists. The difference is that you seek to use it as an excuse to avoid accepting anything you don’t wish to believe, even absent any evidence whatsoever.

    Now you have successfully described yourself. You wouldn’t spend a tiny fraction of your time defending the F-35 if it was French made.

    Not at all.

    Unlike those on this board that seem to be on one sort of crusade or another I recognize the strengths and weaknesses of each of the various aircraft that are discussed here.

    You don’t see me camping out on the Rafale, Gripen, or Eurofighter threads slinging mud on a daily basis and accusing any source or evaluation that provides a favorable review of one of those aircraft of bribery as you do on this thread.

    Each of those aircraft are extremely modern and offer some noteworthy strengths. I don’t need to pretend that any evaluation that ranks one of them first must have been bought off to avoid acknowledging some inconvenient truth.

    Have you ever examined your own motivations? How many hours a week would you guess you devote to slinging mud at the F-35? What do you hope to gain? Certainly your goal doesn’t appear to be one of persuasion given the abrasive persona you maintain here, nor is it one of knowledge seeking given your unwillingness to accept information that doesn’t fit your preconceived views.

    Another excellent insight.. Similarly, you are talking about yourself. All sources describing your favorite pet aircraft are discredited and ridiculed (Kopp, Sweetman…) and you are happy to seek whatever biased sources like LMA test pilots, LMA press releases, LMA magazine which speak exactly what you want to hear…

    I am glad that you have recognized what your posts are all about. Thanks. I could not have said it better.

    I don’t dismiss Kopp and Sweetman’s writing outright, but on the F-35 both have proven biased and seem to harbor personal animosity toward the F-35 for reasons that really aren’t clear to me. The recent piece about the ongoing fighter acquisition program in Korea is a perfect example. The article Sweetman wrote was unprofessional and unethical.

    As for the reports of test pilots, active duty pilots and company press releases… each have value. You can’t take them as the gospel truth but they are the individuals with direct access to the aircraft. If you rule them out completely you are left with your various “suspect” sources (and 3rd, 4th etc hand accounts)

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2260065
    hopsalot
    Participant

    With regard to the one-to-one replacement, lets assume it was indeed a requirement, one that will clearly not be met. No issues. The trouble starts when this is presented as evidence of a failed program.

    The Rafale was expected to replace the Mirage 2000C, Mirage F1 & Super Etendard on a near 1-1 basis (225/320), the Eurofighter was supposed to replace the Tornado and Jaguar (160/232) and the F-22 was supposed to replace the F-15 1-1 (187/750). Given the reduction in the size of the SwAF over the last two decades, I’d imagine the same applies to the Gripen as well. In fact the only fighter aircraft that has met or exceeded production expectations is the Super Hornet and that too only because of the delays in the F-35.

    Point is, the production numbers itself are a less than damning indictment of the F-35. It will be the most widely produced aircraft since the F-16, and is therefore bound to be good value for money (as is reflected in the most recent contracts). [That said, if they’d cancelled it and built 2000 units of an evolved F-22, that would have become the most cost-effective fighter in the world, at least from an acquisition perspective.] For an export customer that faces the possibility of fighting even a moderately advanced adversary, the F-35 is an obvious choice.

    We could just as easily pick on the fan favorite Gripen. The Gripen A/B fleet was roughly 200 aircraft (a reduction from the original plan), the Gripen C/D fleet saw numbers fall to approximately 100 examples(some of which were re-manufactured A/B models), and now the proposed move to the Gripen E will see numbers reduced once again to only 60 examples(each of which requires the cannibalization of an existing C model). (all these numbers from memory, and excluding orders produced for export)

    The simple fact is that air forces are shrinking in Europe. The F-35 won’t be procured in Europe in the numbers originally envisioned but it will retain a critical mass.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2260072
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Numbers don’t necessarily result in proportionally low costs or good value for money. Boeing and Airbus build aircraft at very diverse rates and they all result in value for money for the operator – one reason being that they all tap the same supply chain. Saab claims that they have reduced costs on the Gripen as they have reduced rates, and by even the most optimistic estimates the F-35A will never cost less than the similarly sized F/A-18E/F, even if the 100+ rates for that version, and the 150+ rates for the F-35 family, are attained.

    Higher production rates do not automatically reduce costs, but higher production rates certainly do tend to drive costs lower. It is possible to produce a manufactured good inexpensively at a low production rate, but higher rates are advantageous.

    As for the Super Hornet versus F-35A comparison, that really depends. If you wish to compare a current Super Hornet with the F-35A that may well prove to be the case, but the difference in capabilities between the two platforms would be large. (An F-16A is certainly cheaper to produce than an F-16 Block 60, but is that a valid comparison?) If you wished to compare an “Advanced Super Hornet,” complete with the proposed internal IRST, missile warning sensors, conformal fuel tanks, weapons pod, improved cockpit, and uprated engines I suspect the difference in price would be negligible at best, and the F-35 would retain key performance advantages.

    Important point: vs. Typhoon or SH, the F-35 will not achieve order-of-magnitude higher rates; and even the fastest aircraft production lines are, in the greater scheme of things, not mass production. There’s no aircraft in the world that has a higher production rate than Lamborghini.

    Everything is relative. I suspect there are more Lamborghinis produced than 737s as well and yet I expect Boeing would consider their 737 effort to be “mass production.” (while Toyota would consider Lamborghini’s entire production line little more than an experiment)

    The key thing to understand here is that higher production rates tend to drive down costs, and that the trend exhibits diminishing returns. The F-35 won’t be produced in numbers similar to some of the production programs of earlier eras, but that does not mean that its larger production run will not be a substantial advantage when compared to those of its competitors that are or will be produced at trickle rates. (essentially all of them)

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2260752
    hopsalot
    Participant

    There is a little difference here. I am not looking to get an objective view on a particular product (be it a sports car or an aircraft) which can be assessed from both sides, negative and positive, rather than looking for data describing how defense industry and politics merge together into one complex. This is not exactly a topic for Code One mag if you get my words.

    If you expect to get data on alleged Lockheed’s corruption practices from a source which is generally pro-LMA, then get ready for a VERY long waiting round.

    You came so close to saying it, yet seem to have just missed it. Let me help you out.

    You aren’t looking for an objective view. You are looking for data that supports what you wish were true, and failing to find any from a reputable source are happy to resort to suspect sources, provided they support your view.

    That is all to often the problem around here. People pick a favorite aircraft based on looks, nationality, or otherwise, and then set about trying to build a case to support or defend that aircraft. Your specific case seems to be something of the negative of that scenario as your main interest is in attacking an aircraft you dislike, but the methodology is the same. You seek to discredit or ignore all sources that do not support your view while actively seeking sources that do, even if they are clearly biased or otherwise flawed.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2261412
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Looks like the Korean Air Force is going to get its first choice after all, and without a reduction in orders.

    Korean Air Force Leaning Toward Stealth Fighter

    The Air Force recently submitted an improved required operational capacity (ROC), with a greater emphasis on stealth capability for the next-generation fighter-jet program, to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), a military official said.

    “The Air Force emphasized stealth capability in the ROC,” he said.

    His remark indicates the F-35 stealth fighter is likely to be a standalone candidate in the fighter requirement program because two other possible bidders ― Boeing’s F-15 Silent Eagle and the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS)’s Eurofighter Typhoon ― are expected to have difficulty meeting the updated ROC that puts priority on stealth capability.

    The low-observable technology played a key role in the nation’s September rejection of the less-stealthy F-15 as a replacement for the Air Force’s aging fleet of F-4s and F-5s.

    According to Naeil Shinmoon, multiple government officials were quoted as saying that the government is leaning toward purchasing 60 F-35s over a longer period of time due to budget constraints. It added that the present government will buy 40 F-35s and the remainder will be added under the next administration.

    http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2013/11/116_146012.html

    Naturally the Korean Air Force isn’t at all interested in capabilities. Nope, they couldn’t care less which plane they buy. All that matters are the bribes. :highly_amused:

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2261471
    hopsalot
    Participant

    You could see that from two sides.. 1. Is the author providing this information because he has an demilitarisation agenda to follow or 2. did acquisition of such information form his present agenda?

    BTW, there are no completely unbiased accounts unless you’re reading Handbook of Advanced Mathematics.

    He was clearly bought off as part of a massive international conspiracy.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2261866
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Ah, your beer emoticons.. Short on arguments, again?

    Last time I have proven you that the ex-Chief of Staff of ROKAF has taken at least $2.5mil in bribes from LMA over two years for providing LockMart with classified military information on what ROKAF plans to buy, from whom and for how much. Your only response was crawling back under your stone and shutting up like a clam..

    And I am a conspiracy theorist.. Gimme a break, troll.

    You -are- a conspiracy theorist. You invent conspiracy theories to explain things you don’t understand. That is what a conspiracy theorist does.

    Now that doesn’t mean there aren’t ever real cases of bribery or indeed actual conspiracies… but the idea that LM has just bought everyone everywhere isn’t plausible. If all it took was a few bribes then BAE, no stranger to bribery itself, would have no problem selling Eurofighters. (or for that matter Dassault selling Rafales)

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2261876
    hopsalot
    Participant

    As things stand today, most criticism of UK’s supposed myopia appears to stem more from a visceral dislike of the F-35, than a dispassionate analysis of the facts. The MoD is certainly responsible for disastrous decisions (like the Nimrod) but the JCA isn’t one of them. Most observers agree that the Eurofighter is broadly equivalent to the Rafale. The UK’s F-35-EF fleet will remain numerically comparable to France’s Rafales but while providing greater net capability (albeit at a higher operating cost).

    I have found that as the F-35 program has continued to progress more and more people are coming to better understand both the F-35 itself and the capabilities it offers.

    Meanwhile, the most committed of the critics are becoming both more strident and less rational.

    In the coming years as operators in more and more countries begin to receive their F-35s it will become impossible to dismiss the F-35 as one massive, and massively implausible conspiracy.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2261916
    hopsalot
    Participant

    The “experts” which selected the POS understand squat. They have never even bothered to seriously consider alternatives, just made the choice based on paper specs and presentations promising a completely different fighter at a completely different price at that time.

    Of course, let us completely omit the little detail that many of them have been on LMA’s payroll for years..

    Sure, not at all like you. You have it all figured out. :very_drunk:

    All the evaluators/professionals are bought off, even the ones in places like Israel and Korea that may find themselves relying on the F-35 to defend themselves against an existential threat. All the contests are rigged. Nobody who actually has access to the aircraft or its performance specs can be trusted because they are all in on the conspiracy.

    Good thing you were too smart for them. :eagerness:

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2262228
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Prrogramme prepararion phase is ro end next months, demonstration phase 1 contract will be awarded half 2014. The six industrials involved already gave a ffinancial and technical proposition in september.

    So let me get this straight… proposals have been completed.

    Europe has never been short on proposals nor even demonstrators. The problem will come when it is time to foot the bill for a real development program, something that is almost impossible to imagine the way things have been going in Europe lately. Studies are all well and good, but they have to eventually lead somewhere.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2262317
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Dassault is working on Rafale MLU, and was just allocated 1 billion euros for F3R standard + further studies.
    Phase 1 of FCAS (and provisions for the beginning) is fully funded by UK and Fr governments.

    Here is a photo of concept model presented at pas 13 btw

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]222812[/ATTACH]

    Sure, there are some upgrade projects in the works, and there will be for some time, but that type of work only delays the inevitable unless clean slate projects materialize.

    This is the same problem that is confronting Boeing. They have kept busy with their Silent Eagle and Advanced Super Hornet projects, but they know their future in the fighter business is dependent on their early 6th generation work and to a lesser extent their T-X work.

    As for FCAS, what constitutes “fully funded?”

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2262536
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Agreed completely. And that is one of the reasons why I disagree with any European involvement in the F-35 project.

    There was never any chance of a European 5th generation program so the idea that it was a choice between the F-35 and something else isn’t representative of the real world. By participating in the F-35 buyers can preserve something, more than they could have otherwise.

    Europe simply isn’t willing to spend money on defense projects right now and if things continue for another decade as they have lately there won’t be much industrial base left to protect.

    Losing own designing capability, paying twice as much as agreed and as a result getting a P.O.S. of an aircraft is as bad as it gets, IMO.

    You will learn in time that the experts that selected the F-35 in your country and numerous others understand aviation better than you do. The F-35 will never be the most aerodynamically spectacular fighter in the sky, but that just isn’t what makes the difference anymore. The F-35 has enough speed and maneuverability to get the job done and huge advantages where it really counts.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,921 through 1,935 (of 2,738 total)