And the orders are coming, Rafale has a good deal with the Indian order, and that gives them plenty of breathing room to find new customers. The scenario i envision is that the Developers (France for rafale and the Euro consortium for Typhoon) sell refurbished jets from their fleets and develop+procure newer versions from the production line. A price reduced rafale (early batch) or typhoon will be very attractive to a customer who cannot afford 4.5 gen or 5th gen fighter.

They don’t actually have an order yet. Don’t get me wrong, I expect them to eventually get the deal signed, but that hasn’t happened yet.

As for refurbished Rafales… where are those going to come from? France is producing them at 11 per year right now. At that rate they will never have any extras to pass on to anyone else, unless they further shrink their own force structure.

There are more Typhoons available, but that isn’t really a good thing either. It just means that the principal operators are seeking to shrink their forces and are looking for ways to unload airframes.

An additional problem is that even refurbished neither is really a budget option. A potential operator that just wanted to patrol its airspace could go with a more affordable fighter.

Not speaking of 4th generation fighters. The F-16, F-15 will pretty much be done. The SH might still be around if the Navy wishes to keep the line going by re adjusting the SH:JSF ratio. I was reffering to EF, Rafale, Gripen which still continue to find customers, and we must not rule out the fact that the developer countries invest to keep the line open.

I don’t see much reason for optimism for these designs. The EF and Rafale are far too expensive for budget oriented purchases, and I see little reason for faith that the developer nations will come forward with much in the way of future funding.

Tejas is more then a fighter weapons system for its developing nation, it is a leap into the modern fighter business. Anyways it is out of scope of discussion.

:rolleyes: Tejas is a leap into the 1980s fighter business.

How much of the export (western) 4th generation market had the F-16 controlled?

Lots, but that isn’t the same thing as a monopoly. Look at the F-18 for just one example.

The europeans are investing in keeping their military industrial base relevant into the comming decades. Developing fighters that have a small market is not the wise way to do this. In the case of the US, the internal demand was in 4 figures. They have extremely competant 4.5 generation aircraft, and rest assured they will constantly upgrade them over the years and will be investing in other areas such as UCAV’s etc. We may see a 5th generation project launched but that is not certain, what is pretty certain is that they will constantly invest in their 4.5 generation projects to keep them relevant. The EF typhoon, The rafale and the gripen were great aircraft the last time i checked.

Here we will just have to disagree. What I see from Europe is … nothing much. Yes they will continue to invest to some extent, but they are clearly on their way out of the fighter business, and they aren’t making a serious effort on UAVs/UCAVs either. They can keep things going for quite a while with upgrades and refurbs, but without new programs they will lose no longer be relevant at the high-end within another decade.

Ladies and Gents oh and shouty people as much as F-35 is relevant to this thread how many it will sell around the world is not. Yes F-35 will sell lots of units no sh;t it has a home market of 2500+ orders however this will not change the fact that it is more than a decade away for the RAAF if anything it pushes it away even more and this means that if nothing is done now the RAAF could have no F-18A+ life left 24 F-18F’s in need of mid-life upgrade and no F-35’s

I know I keep beating the drum but as I have said buy 30 F-18 international roadmap with AESA radar IRST- next generation cockpit- enclosed weapons pod and at least their pilots can start to get to grips with modern avionics and weapon systems and also as said this gives them a capable strike-fighter up to 2035 which will be joined by F-35 in 2025+ and replaced by more F-35’s or what ever is out there post 2035

Please do not tell me that F-35 is the answer to all the worlds air forces when it clearly not let also not make F-35 out to be something it is not it will be a good strike platform but it is no A2A fighter yes it has stealth and BVR which will help but with a average power to weight when fully fuelled and Only 4.6g in a sustained turn and in the B/C no internal gun ( I thought this lesson was learnt years ago with the F-4) I would not like to get court by a real A2A type like Typhoon – Flanker or Pak-FA

The SH International would be an excellent aircraft if ever ordered, but I am baffled by how you go from advocating the SH International, to saying that the F-35 is “no A2A fighter.”

The SH has all of the disadvantages of the F-35, without most of its advantages…

As for getting “court” by a “real A2A type” … nevermind.

4 generation fighter are leaving stage? We will see 4th generation aircraft operate for decades to come, They are going no where. Do not forget New 4.5 generation fighters, in addition to old 4.5 generation fighters whose availability will increase in the coming decades…as users look towards buying newer more upgraded versions..

It isn’t that the 4th generation aircraft are going on, just that there aren’t enough orders out there anymore to sustain the number of production lines operating. Manufacturers can trickle produce airframes for a while, as has been done with the Rafale, but eventually you need real orders.

At the very low-end you can stay in the game by picking up small orders here and there, but you can’t stay in business at the high-end like that.

Do you believe that none outside SA, will buy 4-4.5 generation aircraft beyond 2025? I am afraid i cannot agree with you on that, there would be plenty of nations around the world (outside SA) that may well be interested in going in for used or brand new 4.5 generation airfract…and its developers will push with very attractive prices..

There will likely be some sales, but by 2025 the 4th generation will be essentially done.

A good amount of share the F-35 will get, however it would not be the virtual monopoly the F-16 has enjoyed.

The F-16 never came close to having a monopoly. Between the two the F-35 will be much closer to a monopoly than the F-16 ever was. It is literally the West’s only 5th generation fighter for the foreseeable future and the only fighter with an assured production run extending into the next decade.

I seriously doubt that. India is one of the emerging defense economies, and they are looking towards indegenousization. They are likely to spend billions on the tejas, refining it and coming out with newer better versions. Much like russia with the Pakfa, the tejas will propel the indian defense establishment and for this reason alone, they will not cancel it.

Tejas is a total wreck of a program. With enough time, money, and foreign technology they may eventually make it work, but it isn’t anywhere near becoming a force in the export world.

My contention is that even beyond 2020, 2025, F-35 will only be attractive to those that can afford to step up to the big plate and field an air force with 5th generation fighters…France, Germany, Spain and great britain are big players in the defense industry and they are not going to sit around and not update their 4.5 generation designs in order to make them relevant as export prospects. For those that can stretch themselves to the 5th generation fighters, a cheaper 4.5 gen refurbished fighter fleet will look attractive. Others would simply not be able to afford expensive stealth jets or justify a need for one..

Honestly, for the most part Europe is giving up on maintaining its military capabilities. They will certainly maintain and upgrade much of their current fleets of aircraft, and as you already mentioned they will continue to procure some new 4th generation airframes for most of the rest of this decade, but ultimately the whole budget is getting consumed by social spending.

If any of the big players in Europe was serious about maintaining their capabilities a 5th generation program would already be well advanced, and nobody is even seriously discussing the possibility. The Japanese, Koreans, and Indians are at least trying to work out what such an aircraft would look like.

…Moreover, if KF-X was developed, how big would the 2025-2040 export market really be? Even in a hypothetical market where production lines for the F-16, F/A-18 family, Eurofighter, and Rafale had all shut down, that still leaves South Korea competing against China’s J-10 and J-11, Russia’s SU-35 and possibly its MiG-35, Sweden’s JAS-39E/F, and the USA’s F-35….

Really competent author:) Whole article is strange.

I would say the Rafale has much better odds of remaining in production in 2025 (thanks to the likely Indian contract) than the Mig-35, Su-35 or Gripen NG.

The bigger problem for Korea is that it would be falling into the same trap as India with its LCA… getting a fighter to market 10+ years late just isn’t a recipe for success, especially when it will be heavily reliant on foreign technology.

I see a FA-50 as being much more likely to win some budget oriented sales than a higher-end 4.5 generation fighter.

Despite cutting orders… :rolleyes:

Prices are up and budgets are down. The forces want the aircraft, it is just a question of how many they can afford.

Besides, I could say the same thing about the Typhoon couldn’t I? :rolleyes:

[QUOTE=aussienscale;1997149]

Your continued suggestion that Super Hornet was acquired because it was just-so-awesome, rather than because it was just-so-convenient, is cute but entirely unsupported. gf0012-aust over at DefenceTalk is quite clear on the priorities guiding the acquisition./QUOTE]

Interesting, so you find this poster credible in what he is saying ?

As always, it depends on whether or not the source in question is saying something that he wants to believe or not…

Thanks for the good laugh.. The thing will be inferior in exactly the capabilities most export users want – which is A-A. The presentations might work well on politicians who were paid a sommer mansion at Bahamas for pushing an unwanted, unneeded and overpriced aircraft into their air forces at public cost without a proper selection process but sure as hell don’t work on me.

The F-35 is not in such demand, anymore.. It was on great demand at the time when promised performance and capabilities and projected cost ($56mil) were still valid.. Since then, the performance has been cut down continously, cost almost tripled and economy of most buyer states has declined..

It really is kind of amusing just how big the difference between what a bunch of enthusiasts on the internet is and the reality.

The F-35 isn’t in such demand? Really? :rolleyes: It has buyers literally waiting around for it…. it has more buyers right now than all of the Eurocanards combined, and it isn’t even operational yet. Naturally it isn’t in demand anymore, you have clearly figured out something that nobody else has yet. Good for you. 😉

I would wish the aircraft some good export prospects. Unfortunately I don’t see many. Most legacy Hornet users have been looking elsewhere and new ones will be tough to gather..

Well, good for Boeing you don’t know what you are talking about. The SH is in good position for Malaysia, Brazil, and Kuwait and could yet steal a few sales from the F-35.